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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2021

BEA 21-59

Personal Income and Outlays, October 2021

Personal income increased $93.4 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $214.3 billion (1.3 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent; goods increased 1.0 percent and services increased 0.5 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent (table 9).

	2021
	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.
	Percent change from preceding month
	Personal income:
Current dollars	0.3	1.2	0.3	-1.0	0.5
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.1	1.3	0.3	-1.3	0.3
Chained (2012) dollars	-0.4	0.9	-0.1	-1.6	-0.3
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	1.1	0.0	1.1	0.6	1.3
Chained (2012) dollars	0.6	-0.4	0.7	0.3	0.7
Price indexes:
PCE	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.4
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	4.0	4.1	4.2	4.4	5.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	4.1

COVID-19 Impact on October 2021 Personal Income and Outlays

The estimate for October personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In October, payments for pandemic-related unemployment benefits decreased. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in October primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and personal income receipts on assets that were partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within compensation, the increase primarily reflected an increase in private wages and salaries. Within personal income receipts on assets, both dividend income and interest income increased. Within government social benefits, unemployment insurance decreased, reflecting decreases in payments from three pandemic-related unemployment programs: Pandemic Unemployment Compensation Payments, Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (table 3).

The $214.3 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in October reflected an increase of $123.8 billion in spending for goods and an increase of $90.5 billion in spending for services (table 3). Within goods, increases were widespread, led by motor vehicles and parts. Within services, increases were also widespread, led by “other” services (mainly international travel). Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $216.8 billion in October (table 3). Personal saving was $1.32 trillion in October and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 7.3 percent (table 1).

The PCE price index for October increased 5.0 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 30.2 percent while food prices increased 4.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for October increased 4.1 percent from one year ago.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for April through September. For April through June, estimates for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of updated second-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided below for August and September.

	Change from preceding month
	August				September
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	41.3	69.0	0.2	0.3	-216.2	-203.7	-1.0	-1.0
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	26.4	50.2	0.1	0.3	-236.9	-232.4	-1.3	-1.3
Chained (2012) dollars	-30.1	-16.4	-0.2	-0.1	-252.8	-254.4	-1.6	-1.6
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	155.1	171.1	1.0	1.1	93.4	100.6	0.6	0.6
Chained (2012) dollars	87.3	95.5	0.6	0.7	36.4	38.0	0.3	0.3

Next release: December 23, 2021 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Personal Income and Outlays, November 2021

* * *

Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates for 2022
Estimate	Release Date
December 2021	January 28, 2022
January 2022	February 25, 2022
February 2022	March 31, 2022
March 2022	April 29, 2022
April 2022	May 27, 2022
May 2022	June 30, 2022
June 2022	July 29, 2022
July 2022	August 26, 2022
August 2022	September 30, 2022
September 2022	October 28, 2022
October 2022	December 1, 2022
November 2022	December 23, 2022

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (Excel)

Personal Income

Karl Rohrer

(301) 278-9083

gdpniwd@bea.gov

PCE Services

Jeff Barnett

301-278-9663

pce@bea.gov

Media (BEA)

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, refer to the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, refer to the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, refer to the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, refer to Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chaineddollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.