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News Release: U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts

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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2006

Technical: Peter Kuhbach:
(202) 606-9543		  
BEA 06-55
  Edward Kocis: 606-9981    
Media: Ralph Stewart: 606-9690    
E-mail inquiries: industrysatellites@bea.gov    

REAL TOURISM OUTPUT DOWN 1.7 PERCENT IN THIRD QUARTER 2006

Real tourism output declined at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2006 – largely due to heightened security concerns over air travel – according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter of 2006, real tourism output grew 1.9 percent (revised).  By comparison, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2006, and 2.6 percent (final) in the second quarter of 2006.

Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3

Direct tourism employment rose 0.1 percent in the second quarter of 2006 (the most recent period for which data are available), after growing 2.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter of 2006.  By comparison, overall U.S. employment grew 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2006, and 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 2006.

Other highlights from this release of the travel and tourism satellite accounts include:

  • After a sharp increase of 7.5 percent (revised) in the second quarter of 2006, prices for tourism goods and services rose only 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006.  By comparison, the overall GDP price index rose 1.8 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
  • Total tourism-related employment was flat in the second quarter of 2006, accounting once again for 8.3 million jobs.
Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3Changes in Real Tourism Output.  After growing 11.6 percent (revised) in the second quarter of 2006, real output of passenger air transportation declined 11.6 percent in the third quarter of 2006.  Much of this reversal may be attributed to the tightened air travel restrictions and security concerns announced the second week of August.  Also, real output of traveler accommodations, which dipped 1.1 percent (revised) in the second quarter of 2006, was down 4.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3Changes in Tourism Prices.  Prices for passenger air transportation, which increased 16.9 percent (revised) in the second quarter of 2006, rose only 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2006.  Prices for traveler accommodations, which grew 8.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 and 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2006, increased a much more modest 3.4 percent (revised) and 3.1 percent in the second and third quarters of 2006.
Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3Changes in Tourism Employment.  After an increase of 2.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter of 2006, overall direct tourism employment grew only 0.1 percent in the second quarter of 2006 (the latest period for which data are available).  While employment in the traveler accommodations industry grew for the eleventh time in the last twelve quarters, adding 2.8 thousand jobs, employment in the air transportation services industry declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, eliminating 2.5 thousand jobs.
Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3Total Tourism-Related Output.  In the third quarter of 2006, total current-dollar tourism-related output of $1.2 trillion consisted of $663.2 billion of direct tourism output - output of goods and services sold directly to visitors, and $506.1 billion of indirect tourism-related output - output of goods and services used to produce what visitors buy.
Chart 1. Real Tourism Output and Tourism Employment, 2002 Q 1 - 2006 Q 3Total Tourism-Related Employment.  In the second quarter of 2006 (the most recent period for which data are available), total tourism-related employment of 8.3 million consisted of 5.7 million direct tourism jobs - jobs where workers produce goods and services sold directly to visitors, and 2.6 million indirect tourism-related jobs - jobs where workers produce goods and services used to produce what visitors buy.

Definitions

Direct tourism output. Direct tourism output comprises all output consumed by visitors (e.g., traveler accommodations, passenger air transportation, souvenirs).

Indirect tourism-related output. Indirect tourism-related output comprises all output used as inputs in the process of producing direct tourism output (e.g., toiletries for hotel guests, the various ingredients used to make the meals served airline passengers, and the plastic used to produce souvenir key chains).  Indirect tourism-related output is estimated using commodity-by-commodity output multipliers from the Current Industry Analysis Division.

Total tourism-related output. Total tourism-related output is the sum of direct tourism output and indirect tourism-related output.

Direct tourism employment. Direct tourism employment comprises all jobs where the workers are engaged in the production of direct tourism output (e.g., hotel staff, airline pilots, and souvenir sellers).

Indirect tourism-related employment. Indirect tourism-related employment comprises all jobs where the workers are engaged in the production of indirect tourism-related output (e.g., employees of companies that produce toiletries for hotel guests, the various ingredients used to make the meals served airline passengers, and the plastic used to produce souvenir key chains).  Indirect tourism-related employment is estimated using industry-by-industry employment multipliers from the Regional Economic Analysis Division.

Total tourism-related employment. Total tourism-related employment is the sum of direct tourism employment and indirect tourism-related employment.

These estimates are from the Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts (TTSAs), which are supported by funding from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.  The current-price estimates of direct tourism output were derived from BEA’s annual TTSAs (revised in June 2006) and current-dollar quarterly estimates of personal consumption expenditures from the NIPAs.  The constant-price estimates of direct tourism output were developed using price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and constant-price quarterly estimates of personal consumption expenditures from the NIPAs.  The estimates of direct tourism employment were derived from the annual TTSAs (revised in June 2006) and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from BLS.  Employment data are available five to six months after the end of the reference quarter.

Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.  Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized.  “Real” estimates are in chained (2000) dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.  Growth in overall U.S. employment is calculated using BLS Total nonfarm employment from Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm#data.

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Next release – Travel and Tourism estimates for fourth quarter and annual 2006 will be released on Tuesday, March 20, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EST. 

BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

Table 1.a.  Percent Change in Real Tourism Output 
[Percent change from preceding period]
Tourism Goods and Services Group   Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2002:I Q2002:II Q2002:III Q2002:IV Q2003:I Q2003:II Q2003:III Q2003:IV Q2004:I Q2004:II Q2004:III Q2004:IV Q2005:I Q2005:II Q2005:III Q2005:IV Q2006:I Q2006:II Q2006:III
Traveler accommodations -9.6 2.0 3.5 3.4 6.8 31.5 16.5 -4.3 -0.7 7.9 2.4 7.8 -1.8 8.4 0.6 1.8 4.5 7.3 11.6 10.5 6.5 1.1 -1.1 -4.2
Transportation -4.6 -0.8 1.1 7.3 5.6 36.1 5.0 -9.8 6.0 1.1 -5.7 13.5 4.5 14.7 8.6 -1.8 4.5 16.8 3.8 -2.4 0.7 3.1 7.2 -4.2
Passenger air transportation -9.3 -1.8 3.3 13.3 6.0 83.8 5.3 -13.7 19.4 1.9 -10.5 22.1 9.5 29.9 14.0 -3.2 7.2 18.7 5.4 -6.8 -4.4 9.3 11.6 -11.6
All other transportation-related commodities -0.2 0.1 -0.6 2.3 5.2 7.9 4.8 -6.6 -3.6 0.5 -1.7 6.9 0.3 2.8 4.0 -0.5 2.2 15.2 2.4 1.7 5.3 -2.0 3.6 2.6
Food services and drinking places -2.2 1.5 4.7 6.1 4.0 5.2 2.1 0.2 1.4 5.0 8.0 8.2 7.9 7.5 2.4 3.2 7.3 2.9 4.1 1.0 7.5 11.0 -3.6 0.5
Recreation, entertainment, and shopping -4.9 1.7 5.0 8.0 3.6 9.4 1.9 2.1 7.2 1.5 6.6 9.4 7.7 13.3 4.1 6.0 3.2 5.5 1.2 1.0 3.9 6.3 0.8 1.9
Recreation and entertainment -1.3 4.5 5.1 6.1 1.2 16.1 4.9 4.8 8.5 -1.5 10.1 5.1 8.5 10.0 1.4 4.7 -0.4 5.6 -2.4 -3.6 3.1 7.6 -1.8 3.3
Shopping -7.6 -0.5 4.8 9.6 5.6 4.4 -0.5 -0.2 6.0 4.1 3.7 13.2 7.0 16.2 6.5 7.1 6.3 5.5 4.3 5.0 4.6 5.3 2.9 0.7
                                               
All tourism goods and services -5.1 0.7 3.3 6.7 4.9 21.2 5.4 -3.8 4.4 3.0 1.5 10.4 4.9 11.9 4.8 1.9 4.6 9.3 4.4 1.3 3.8 5.0 1.9 -1.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Table 1.b.  Real Tourism Output
[Millions of chained (2000) dollars]
Tourism Goods and Services Group   Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2002:I Q2002:II Q2002:III Q2002:IV Q2003:I Q2003:II Q2003:III Q2003:IV Q2004:I Q2004:II Q2004:III Q2004:IV Q2005:I Q2005:II Q2005:III Q2005:IV Q2006:I Q2006:II Q2006:III
Traveler accommodations 79,681 81,295 84,153 87,031 92,951 79,456 82,556 81,650 81,517 83,090 83,584 85,164 84,774 86,495 86,622 87,018 87,989 89,543 92,040 94,365 95,858 96,114 95,837 94,808
Transportation 192,819 191,249 193,436 207,556 219,177 191,269 193,620 188,679 191,429 191,956 189,144 195,247 197,396 204,274 208,512 207,564 209,875 218,206 220,252 218,933 219,319 220,980 224,865 222,460
Passenger air transportation 91,129 89,517 92,496 104,822 111,118 89,301 90,458 87,176 91,132 91,554 89,054 93,610 95,765 102,245 105,640 104,777 106,626 111,297 112,779 110,819 109,576 112,046 115,155 111,656
All other transportation-related commodities 101,509 101,570 100,961 103,288 108,687 101,778 102,975 101,232 100,295 100,418 99,986 101,677 101,764 102,464 103,467 103,330 103,891 107,639 108,269 108,718 110,123 109,582 110,554 111,273
Food services and drinking places 82,020 83,225 87,116 92,468 96,140 82,804 83,244 83,278 83,573 84,604 86,244 87,969 89,649 91,280 91,832 92,557 94,202 94,866 95,820 96,064 97,808 100,383 99,465 99,588
Recreation, entertainment, and shopping 135,255 137,558 144,387 155,956 161,533 136,122 136,769 137,472 139,869 140,389 142,657 145,888 148,612 153,334 154,893 157,172 158,424 160,573 161,056 161,466 163,036 165,564 165,880 166,647
Recreation and entertainment 58,865 61,517 64,676 68,636 69,473 60,288 61,018 61,743 63,018 62,787 64,318 65,127 66,474 68,078 68,313 69,109 69,042 69,984 69,553 68,913 69,440 70,726 70,414 70,990
Shopping 76,372 75,984 79,653 87,334 92,190 75,794 75,701 75,665 76,778 77,551 78,261 80,716 82,085 85,232 86,584 88,080 89,440 90,647 91,609 92,724 93,781 95,008 95,686 95,849
                                                 
All tourism goods and services 489,961 493,518 509,614 543,508 570,159 489,744 496,244 491,405 496,678 500,374 502,242 514,809 521,030 535,898 542,228 544,849 551,059 563,391 569,439 571,245 576,563 583,685 586,421 583,982
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Table 1.c.  Chain-Type Price Indexes for Tourism Goods and Services
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
Tourism Goods and Services Group   Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2002:I Q2002:II Q2002:III Q2002:IV Q2003:I Q2003:II Q2003:III Q2003:IV Q2004:I Q2004:II Q2004:III Q2004:IV Q2005:I Q2005:II Q2005:III Q2005:IV Q2006:I Q2006:II Q2006:III
Traveler accommodations 102.0 101.2 102.8 108.7 112.2 101.3 101.3 100.9 101.2 101.0 101.7 103.4 105.0 105.5 108.7 109.6 111.0 112.7 112.7 110.7 112.8 114.9 115.9 116.8
Transportation 97.8 95.1 98.4 99.3 103.1 93.5 95.5 95.4 95.9 97.5 97.6 99.0 99.3 99.2 99.3 99.0 99.8 99.3 102.2 105.1 106.0 106.0 110.0 110.4
Passenger air transportation 95.8 90.3 93.4 92.4 94.8 89.6 91.2 90.3 90.3 91.3 92.7 94.5 95.0 93.3 92.3 92.0 91.9 91.7 94.7 95.8 96.9 96.1 99.9 100.2
All other transportation-related commodities 99.9 99.4 102.9 105.9 111.1 97.1 99.5 100.0 100.9 103.2 102.1 103.1 103.3 104.6 105.9 105.6 107.4 106.6 109.3 113.9 114.6 115.6 119.7 120.3
Food services and drinking places 103.2 106.0 108.2 111.4 114.9 105.1 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.2 110.1 110.9 112.0 112.7 113.7 114.5 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1 119.1
Recreation, entertainment, and shopping 102.5 104.0 105.5 107.9 110.2 103.3 103.9 104.4 104.6 105.0 105.1 105.7 106.1 107.0 107.7 108.0 108.7 109.1 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.7 112.5 113.0
Recreation and entertainment 103.4 105.9 108.6 111.7 114.9 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.2 107.9 108.2 108.8 109.4 110.7 111.4 111.8 112.7 113.4 114.3 115.4 116.3 116.9 117.9 118.8
Shopping 101.8 102.6 103.1 104.9 106.5 102.4 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.8 102.8 103.2 103.6 104.1 104.8 105.0 105.6 105.7 106.3 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.5
                                               
All tourism goods and services 100.6 100.4 102.7 105.3 108.5 99.4 100.5 100.6 101.0 101.8 102.1 103.1 103.8 104.2 105.1 105.4 106.3 106.6 108.1 109.2 110.2 110.9 112.9 113.6
Percent change at annual rate 0.6 -0.3 2.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 4.2 0.5 1.6 3.1 1.1 4.3 2.5 1.7 3.5 1.1 3.4 1.3 5.6 4.1 3.9 2.6 7.5 2.2
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Table 2.  Direct Tourism Output
[Millions of current dollars]
Tourism Goods and Services Group   Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2002:I Q2002:II Q2002:III Q2002:IV Q2003:I Q2003:II Q2003:III Q2003:IV Q2004:I Q2004:II Q2004:III Q2004:IV Q2005:I Q2005:II Q2005:III Q2005:IV Q2006:I Q2006:II Q2006:III
Traveler accommodations 81,249 82,250 86,497 94,615 104,297 80,462 83,643 82,392 82,502 83,946 85,022 88,023 88,997 91,234 94,195 95,337 97,692 100,901 103,719 104,427 108,142 110,481 111,076 110,737
Transportation 188,629 181,806 190,309 206,176 226,075 178,852 184,880 179,979 183,514 187,201 184,588 193,357 196,091 202,614 207,081 205,486 209,524 216,732 225,122 230,056 232,388 234,325 247,412 245,677
Passenger air transportation 87,263 80,861 86,395 96,827 105,312 80,002 82,462 78,700 82,280 83,580 82,549 88,500 90,952 95,439 97,490 96,420 97,961 102,010 106,838 106,198 106,201 107,699 115,087 111,854
All other transportation-related commodities 101,366 100,946 103,914 109,349 120,763 98,850 102,419 101,279 101,234 103,621 102,039 104,858 105,139 107,176 109,592 109,066 111,562 114,722 118,285 123,858 126,187 126,625 132,318 133,829
Food services and drinking places 84,636 88,185 94,218 103,055 110,490 87,034 87,908 88,489 89,311 90,726 92,964 95,322 97,859 100,482 101,884 103,660 106,194 107,874 109,718 110,748 113,619 117,593 117,501 118,581
Recreation, entertainment, and shopping 138,609 143,122 152,345 168,231 177,948 140,569 142,108 143,480 146,331 147,424 149,991 154,214 157,750 164,121 166,821 169,754 172,229 175,212 176,910 178,391 181,278 184,960 186,565 188,377
Recreation and entertainment 60,866 65,154 70,222 76,633 79,804 62,989 64,345 65,729 67,551 67,718 69,570 70,887 72,711 75,392 76,067 77,274 77,798 79,378 79,533 79,556 80,749 82,661 83,016 84,356
Shopping 77,743 77,968 82,123 91,598 98,144 77,579 77,763 77,751 78,780 79,707 80,421 83,326 85,039 88,729 90,753 92,480 94,431 95,835 97,377 98,835 100,529 102,299 103,558 104,017
                                                 
All tourism goods and services 493,123 495,363 523,370 572,077 618,810 486,916 498,538 494,340 501,659 509,298 512,565 530,917 540,699 558,451 569,982 574,236 585,639 600,719 615,470 623,622 635,427 647,358 662,320 663,223
Percent change at annual rate -4.5 0.5 5.7 9.3 8.2 22.6 9.9 -3.3 6.1 6.2 2.6 15.1 7.6 13.8 8.5 3.0 8.2 10.7 10.2 5.4 7.8 7.7 9.6 0.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis