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Technical Note

The tables in this note are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire note is available in PDF format.

                         Technical Note
                     Gross Domestic Product
              First Quarter of 2004 (Preliminary)
                          May 27, 2004
                                
                                
This technical note provides background information about the source data and estimating
methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.  The complete
set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site <www.bea.gov>;  a
brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site.  In a few weeks, the
estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business,
along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("The Business Situation").  

Sources of Revision to Real GDP
     
Real GDP growth in the first quarter was revised from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent. 
Upward revisions to inventory investment, to government spending, and to exports were
partly offset by an upward revision to imports:

    .  Inventory investment was revised up, mainly reflecting newly available Census
       Bureau data on nondurable goods manufacturing and retail trade inventories for
       March and revised data for February.
    .  Spending by state and local governments was revised up, reflecting newly available
       Census Bureau data on value of construction put in place for March and revised
       data for January and February.
    .  Both imports and exports were revised up, reflecting newly available Census
       Bureau data on goods for March and revised data for February.
     
Revision to Wages and Salaries and Disposable Personal Income

Beginning with today's news release, BEA is accelerating by one month its revisions to the
estimates of wages and salaries for the prior quarter.  These revisions incorporate
tabulations of wages and salaries of employees covered by state unemployment insurance
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The accelerated schedule reflects the more
timely availability of the BLS tabulations.

Wages and salaries increased $57.8 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of
$18.3 billion.  Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased 1.2
percent in the fourth quarter, revised up from 0.5 percent, and 4.9 percent in the first
quarter, revised up from 4.3 percent. 


Brent R. Moulton  
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis  
(202) 606-9606 
May 27, 2004


          Table A. SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY 
             ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2004
                                                                                     
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2004. 
For these key series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP
estimate released on April 29, 2004, and BEA made assumptions for these source data.  The numbers
in brackets show the March values that had been assumed for the advance estimate.  For most series,
the data incorporated for February and, in some cases, for January were preliminary, and the numbers
shown in brackets are the values used last month.

All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.                 
                                          

                                                                     2003                                   2004
                                                       Oct.          Nov.         Dec.         Jan.         Feb.         Mar.
 Private fixed investment:

   Nonresidential structures:                
1      Value of new total private
          construction put in place less
           residential (inc. improvements)...           217.7        215.7       217.3         212.7        215.6        215.2
                                                                                              {213.4}      {215.8}      {214.6}
  Equipment and software:
2   Manufacturers' shipments of
      complete aircraft.......................           25.9         33.1        27.1          26.6         26.8         28.6
                                                                                                            {26.8}       {29.5}
  Residential structures:
    Value of new residential
      construction put in place:
3      Single family .........................          324.4        332.8       339.3         341.7        341.6        345.5
                                                                                              {339.2}      {337.6}      {345.4}

4      Multifamily...........................            34.7         34.6        34.1          34.7         35.2         36.2
                                                                                               {33.5}       {33.8}       {34.6}

  Change in private inventories: 
   
5     Change in inventories for nondurable                        
           manufacturing...................              -3.4          4.6       -12.9          13.4         17.9          7.7
                                                                                                            {13.0}        {0.5}
5a    Change in inventories for merchant
          wholesale and retail industries other
          than motor vehicles and equipment...           14.4         33.0        24.3           1.0         53.0         40.6
                                                                                                            {43.5}       {34.0}

 Net exports:
                                                           
  Exports of goods:                                                           
6   U.S. exports of goods,
        international-transactions-
        accounts basis.........................         739.9        764.7       755.5         742.6        778.9        806.3
                                                                                                           {780.7}      {788.9}

6a        Excluding gold........................        734.9        760.2       751.0         737.5        774.9        802.1
                                                                                                           {776.7}      {784.8}
                                                                        
   Imports of goods:
7  U.S. imports of goods,
        international-transactions-
        accounts basis......................           1304.9       1292.0      1330.6        1324.8       1348.6       1421.1
                                                                                                          {1347.6}     {1381.0}
                                                                        
7a        Excluding gold........................       1300.9       1288.0      1327.3        1320.7       1344.1       1417.4
                                                                                                          {1343.1}     {1376.4}
     
8   Net exports of goods.....................          -565.1       -527.3      -575.1        -582.2       -569.7       -614.8
                                                                                                          {-566.8}     {-592.6}
   
8a        Excluding gold.....................          -566.0       -527.7      -576.4        -583.2       -569.2       -615.2
                                                                                                          {-566.4}     {-591.6}
                                 
 Government:

  State and local:
    Structures:
9     Value of new construction put
        in place................. .............         202.3        199.2       195.4         193.2        195.2        205.1
                                                                                              {191.9}      {190.9}      {191.4}