Home > News > News Release Archive > 2007 > Gross Domestic Product News Release > Technical Note

Technical Note

Available for this release: Tables: (XLS - KB) , Entire Note: (PDF - KB)

                                      Technical Note
                                   Gross Domestic Product
                              First Quarter of 2007 (Advance)
                                      April 27, 2007


This technical note provides background information about the source data and 
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. 
The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's Web site at 
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site.  In a few 
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current 
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the 
Economy").  


Source Data for the Advance Estimate

     
The advance GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2007 is based on source data that are 
incomplete and subject to revision.  Three months of source data were available for 
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment other than aircraft; motor 
vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables inventories; federal government 
outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices.  Only two months of data 
were available for most other key data sources; BEA's assumptions for the third month
are shown in table A.  Among those assumptions are the following:

    *   an increase in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
    *   an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant retail and wholesale inventories,
    *   an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
    *   an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.

Estimates of consumer spending for goods and of inventory investment reflected Census 
retail sales and retail and wholesale inventories data that were benchmarked to the 
annual retail and wholesale trade surveys.  These data were incorporated on a best-
change basis.


Prices


The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter 
after increasing 0.2 percent in the fourth.  Excluding food and energy prices, the price 
index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.8 percent after increasing 2.4 percent. 
About 0.2 percentage point of the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for 
by the pay raise for federal civilian and military personnel, which is treated as an 
increase in the price of employee services purchased by the federal government.


Carol E. Moylan
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis  
(202) 606-9715
	


                 Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
                               FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2007

For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales,
unit automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense
capital goods (other than aircraft), manufacturers' inventories of durable goods, federal defense
spending, and consumer, producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all
months of the quarter.

For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not
available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate.  BEA makes assumptions for the source
data that are not yet available; assumptions for March 2007 are shown in the last column of the
table.  For most series shown, the data for February are preliminary and subject to further revision.
Occasionally, the data for earlier months are also subject to revision.

All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.

                                                          2006                    2007
                                                  Oct.    Nov.    Dec.    Jan.    Feb.    Mar.*

Private fixed investment:
   Nonresidential structures:
1     Value of new nonresidential
          construction put in place...........   307.5   312.0   315.6   314.6   322.0   325.2

   Equipment and software:
2     Manufacturers' shipments of
          complete aircraft...................    34.4    34.2    33.5    47.1    42.1    34.1

   Residential structures:
      Value of new residential
         construction put in place:
3       Single family........................    375.1   361.5   354.6   341.4   331.4   329.5

4       Multifamily...........................    59.0    58.6    57.4    56.7    56.7    56.4

Change in private inventories:
5   Change in inventories for nondurable
        manufacturing.........................    -8.6     0.8    -7.2   -14.7    -2.7    12.1

5a  Change in inventories for merchant
        wholesale and retail industries other
        than motor vehicles and equipment....     22.2    47.1    27.0    23.5    65.2    45.0

Net exports:
   Exports of goods:
"6     U.S. exports of goods,"
          international-transactions-
          accounts basis......................  1058.9  1068.1  1072.5  1092.6  1061.3  1084.9

6a     Excluding gold.........................  1049.6  1059.9  1063.0  1085.4  1053.9  1066.4

   Imports of goods:
"7     U.S. imports of goods,"
          international-transactions-
          accounts basis......................  1840.3  1845.4  1889.1  1874.6  1835.0  1871.2

7a      Excluding gold........................  1834.8  1840.6  1884.0  1870.0  1831.1  1856.7

8   Net exports of goods......................  -781.4  -777.3  -816.7  -782.0  -773.7  -786.3

8a      Excluding gold........................  -785.2  -780.7  -821.0  -784.7  -777.2  -790.3

Government:
   State and local:
      Structures:
9       Value of new construction put
            in place..........................   253.4   256.7   261.0   265.0   266.6   265.8
____________
*Assumption.