This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news
release.  The complete set of estimates for the first quarter is available on BEA's
Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the
Web site.  In a few weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly
journal, the Survey of Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of
the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").

Unchanged GDP Growth

Real GDP increased 0.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, following an
increase of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter.  The unchanged real GDP growth
reflected the following offsetting factors:

     *       Inventory investment turned up, adding 0.81 percentage point to GDP
             growth in the first quarter, after subtracting 1.79 percentage points in the
             fourth.
     *       Business (nonresidential) fixed investment turned down, subtracting 0.28
             percentage point from first quarter growth after adding 0.63 percentage
             point in the fourth.  Investment in structures and equipment and software
             both turned down.
     *       Consumer spending slowed, contributing 0.68 percentage point to first
             quarter growth after contributing 1.58 percentage points in the fourth.
     *       The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was smaller in the first
             quarter (0.22 percentage point) than in the fourth (1.02 percentage points).
             Exports decelerated and imports turned up.

Housing investment continued to be a drag, subtracting 1.23 percentage points
from GDP growth in the first quarter after subtracting 1.25 percentage points in
the fourth.


Source Data for the Advance Estimate

The advance GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2008 is based on source data
that are incomplete and subject to revision.  Three months of source data were
available for consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment other
than aircraft; motor vehicle sales and inventories; manufacturing durables
inventories; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and
international prices.  Only two months of data were available for most other key
data sources; BEA's assumptions for the third month are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:

     *       An increase in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
     *       an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail
             inventories,
     *       a decrease in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
     *       a decrease in imports of goods, excluding gold.


Prices

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent in the first
quarter after increasing 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter.  Excluding food and
energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2
percent in the first quarter, after increasing 2.3 percent in the fourth.  About 0.3
percentage point of the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for by
the pay raise for federal civilian and military personnel, which is treated as an
increase in the price of employee services purchased by the federal government.


Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606

• Entire Note and Table
  (PDF • KB) 
• Entire Note and Table (Text)
  (Text • KB) 
• Table Only
  (Excel • KB)

• Interactive Tables