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Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Second Estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 5.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in exports that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and in federal government spending. Motor vehicle output added 0.44 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change. ___________________________________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. ___________________________________ The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.2 percentage point less than in the advance estimate; this index increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.9 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 13.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 18.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 18.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of 18.9 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 22.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 15.3 percent, compared with an increase of 21.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the third. National defense decreased 3.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.4 percent. Nondefense increased 8.3 percent, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 2.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent. The change in real private inventories added 3.88 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.69 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $16.9 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $139.2 billion in the third quarter and $160.2 billion in the second. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.3 percent, or $219.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,461.7 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion. Revisions The second estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.2 percentage point, or $6.1 billion, higher than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment, to exports, and to nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to PCE and to state and local government spending. Advance Second (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP......................................... 5.7 5.9 Current-dollar GDP............................... 6.4 6.3 Gross domestic purchases price index............. 2.1 1.9 2009 GDP Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008. The decrease in real GDP in 2009 primarily reflected negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), that were partly offset by a positive contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The downturn in real GDP primarily reflected downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and a larger decrease in private inventory investment that were partly offset by a larger decrease in imports and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged in 2009, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in 2008. Current-dollar GDP decreased 1.3 percent, or $183.2 billion, in 2009. Current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $363.8 billion, in 2008. During 2009 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter 2009), real GDP increased 0.1 percent. Real GDP decreased 1.9 percent during 2008. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent during 2009, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during 2008. * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release – March 26, 2010, 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter 2009