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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Third Quarter of 2013 (Advance Estimate)
November 07, 2013
This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the third quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the
Economy").

Real GDP

Real GDP increased 2.8 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2013, following an
increase of 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The acceleration in real GDP growth in
the third quarter reflected a deceleration in imports and accelerations in private
inventory investment and in state and local government spending that were partly
offset by decelerations in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in consumer
spending.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Because of the partial federal government shutdown that took place from October 1
through 16, the release dates for the advance estimate of GDP and for many of the
source data series that are used in the compilation of GDP were delayed. Nevertheless,
in preparing this advance estimate of GDP, BEA was able to incorporate all of the major
source data that would normally be available. The second estimate of GDP for the third
quarter will be released on December 5, 2013.

The advance GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2013 is based on source data that are
incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales and
inventories; durable and nondurable manufacturing inventories; federal government
outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices. Only two months of data were
available for most other key data sources; BEA's assumptions for the third month are
shown in table A. Among those assumptions are the following:

*	a decrease in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories,
*	an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
*	an increase in imports of goods, excluding gold.

Federal Government Furloughs

The estimates of federal government spending in the third quarter reflect the effects of
administrative furloughs associated with sequestration. For example, approximately
640,000 of the Department of Defense's civilian workers were furloughed for six days in
July and August. The furloughs reduced federal government spending by about $5.5
billion (annual rate) in the third quarter.

Prices

The price index for gross domestic purchases—the prices paid by U.S. residents for
goods and services wherever produced—increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter after
increasing 0.2 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index
for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent after increasing 0.8 percent.

Disposable Personal Income

Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, following an
increase of 3.5 percent in the second. The personal saving rate was 4.7 percent in the
third quarter, compared with 4.5 percent in the second.


Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606