Example estimate from the NIPA's: Personal consumption expenditures on goods
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) makes up about two-thirds of GDP, and durable and nondurable goods account for over two-fifths of that (services account for the remainder). The table below shows the methodology for the advance quarterly and annual current-dollar estimates for goods (with estimates for 1993).
In the context of the discussion of sources and methods, there are several points of interest:
Diverse source data: Among
the source data are the Census Bureau's sequence of a monthly survey, an annual
survey, and a census for retail trade; the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer
Price Indexes; data from several trade sources; administrative data from several
Federal agencies; and data from BEA's balance of payments accounts.
Sequence of revisions: The "most
goods" category undergoes a sequence of revisions as the source data
become more complete. Census Bureau retail sales data are available for all 3
months of the quarter at the time of the advance quarterly estimate; data for
the third month are preliminary and subject to revision. The retail sales data
are further revised with the release of the annual survey, and these are
incorporated into the PCE estimates in the second annual revision. The data are
further revised with the release of the economic census, and these are
incorporated into the PCE estimates in the NIPA comprehensive revision.
Role of estimating methods:
The retail control method mentioned in the "most goods" description
provides both an indicator series used in interpolating and extrapolating and a
total to which the categories in the group must sum. This method makes it
possible to use retail sales by type of business to obtain type-of-goods detail
(assuming that the types of goods purchased at various kinds of stores do not
change rapidly).
Source: SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, July 1994.
