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From the August 1996 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS



Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
Annual Estimates, 1993–95
Quarterly Estimates, 1993:I–1996:I

NOTE.—The NIPA estimates were prepared by the National Income and Wealth Division and the Government Division.

In this issue of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) presents revised estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) for 1993–95 and the first quarter of 1996. Annual NIPA revisions usually incorporate a wide range of source data. However, as previously announced, this year's annual revision of the NIPA's has been limited in scope as a result of BEA's decision following the Federal Government shutdowns to focus its resources on getting the release of the current estimates back on schedule and then on completing the remaining estimates from the comprehensive NIPA revision./1/ The next annual revision, which is scheduled for release in the summer of 1997, will incorporate the full range of annual source data and the results of key source data improvement projects.

This article describes the scope of this year's limited annual revision, the results of the revision, and the NIPA tables included in this issue.

Scope of the revision

The revised estimates reflect the following three factors:

Results of the revisions

The revisions to the NIPA estimates are small (tables 1 and 2). The annual percentage changes in current-dollar GDP are unrevised at 4.9 percent for 1993 and 5.8 percent for 1994; the percent change is revised up 0.1 percentage point to 4.6 percent for 1995, reflecting an upward revision to exports of services.

The annual rate of growth of real GDP for 1993 is revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent; the upward revision is more than accounted for by a downward revision to imports of services. The growth rates of real GDP for 1994 and 1995 are unrevised at 3.5 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively (table 3). For 1995, the effect of the upward revision to current-dollar GDP is offset by the incorporation of 1995 price weights into the calculation of the chain-type measures of real GDP.

The revision to real GNP for 1993 mirrors the revision to real GDP. GNP is revised up 0.1 percentage point to 2.3 percent. Real GNP is revised up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3 percent for 1994 and down 0.1 percentage point to 2.0 percent for 1995; both revisions reflect revisions to net receipts of factor income from the rest of the world, which are included in GNP but not in GDP.

For quarterly percentage changes in real GDP, none of the revisions is larger than 0.2 percentage point (in absolute value), and there are an equal number of upward and downward revisions (table 4). The average annual rate of growth in real GDP from the recession trough in the first quarter of 1991 to the first quarter of 1996 is unrevised at 2.4 percent.

The annual rates of growth in the price index for gross domestic purchases are unrevised at 2.5 percent for 1993 and 2.2 percent for 1994. The growth rate for 1995 is revised down 0.1 percentage point to 2.4 percent (table 5). For the quarterly percentage changes, there are slight downward revisions in 6 of the 13 quarters subject to revision. The revisions to the price indexes result from the incorporation of quantity weights for 1995.

Personal income is revised up $0.9 billion (less than 0.1 percent) for 1993, $2.9 billion (less than 0.1 percent) for 1994, and $13.4 billion (0.2 percent) for 1995. The revisions for 1993 and 1994 primarily reflect revisions to personal interest income that result from the incorporation of the annual BPA revision. The revision for 1995 primarily reflects the revision to wage and salary disbursements that results from the incorporation of the BLS data.

The annual growth rates of real disposable personal income are revised up for all 3 years: 0.1 percentage point to 1.2 percent for 1993, 0.1 percentage point to 2.4 percent for 1994, and 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent for 1995. The average annual growth rate from the recession trough in the first quarter of 1991 to the first quarter of 1996 is revised up 0.1 percentage point to 2.5 percent. These revisions largely reflect the revisions to current-dollar personal income.

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income is unrevised at 4.5 percent for 1993 and 3.8 percent for 1994, and it is revised up 0.2 percentage point to 4.7 percent for 1995.

The revisions to national income mirror those to personal income.

NIPA tables in this issue

The complete list of NIPA tables follows this article. The following NIPA tables are published in this issue: The 54 tables that are usually published as the "Selected NIPA Tables," which present annual estimates for the years 1992–95 and quarterly estimates for 1992:IV-1996:II; a number of "annual only" tables, which present estimates for 1992–95; and the "annual and monthly" tables, which present annual estimates for 1992–95 and monthly estimates for January 1992–June 1996.

As indicated in the introduction to the list of tables, "annual only" tables covering 1991–94 were previously published in the January/February 1996, April 1996, and June 1996 issues of the SURVEY. The following tables will not be published again until the August 1997 issue: Tables 3.4–3.6, 3.12–3.20, 6.2C–6.15C, 6.17C–6.22C, 8.8–8.24, 8.26, and 9.1–9.6. For most of these tables, the estimates published earlier this year have not been revised. Exceptions are the line items in the industry tables in part 6 that are affected by the incorporation of the BPA revision and of the newly available BLS data; estimates for these items for 1992–94 appear in the tables beginning on the next page.

The five-account "Summary National Income and Product Accounts Table," which incorporates the revised estimates for 1995, is shown as table A following the complete list of NIPA tables.

For other NIPA-related information in this issue, see the following:

1. See the box "Data Availability" on page 11.

2. See table B on page 33 of "Alternative Measures of Change in Real Output and Prices, Quarterly Estimates for 1959–92," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 73 (March 1993).

3. For a description of the BPA revision, see "U.S. International Transactions, Revised Estimates for 1986–95," SURVEY 76 (July 1996); 56–60.

4. Revisions to Federal Government current consumption expenditures reflect revised data from the BPA's on expenditures for military assistance programs, for services of foreign nationals at overseas military installations, and for other installation-support services at these facilities. In net interest and personal interest income for 1993 and 1994, only the rest-of-the-world components are affected. For 1995, both the domestic and rest-of-the-world components are affected because monetary interest received by persons, which is the sum of domestic and rest-of-the-world interest received, is used to estimate both net interest and personal interest income, by extrapolating from 1994.