Table 5.—Bias in the Quarterly Changes in GDP and Its
Components
[Percentage points/1/]
|
| Current
dollars
| Constant
dollars
|
| 1978-82
| 1983-91
| 1978-82
| 1983-91
|
| Gross domestic product:
| |
 Advance |
-0.93 | (1.59) | -0.21 | (0.91) | -0.53 | (1.05) | 0.09 | (0.35) |
| Preliminary |
-.55 | (1.07) | -.12 | (.53) | -.28 | (.58) | .13 | (.53)
|
| Final |
-.34 | (.66) | -.24 | (1.03) | -.06 | (.12) | .03 | (.12) |
| Personal consumption expenditures:
| |
| Advance |
.45 | (.98) | -.54 | (1.87) | .42 | (.89) | 0 | (.00) |
| Preliminary |
.30 | (.65) | -.38 | (1.34) | .31 | (.59) | .14 | (.52)
|
| Final |
.28 | (.59) | -.49 | (1.71) | .30 | (.56) | .04 | (.15) |
| Durable
goods:
| |
| Advance |
1.56 | (1.05) | -1.48 | (1.71) | 1.61 | (1.13) | -.91 | (1.06) |
| Preliminary |
.63 | (.44) | -1.25 | (1.56) | .99 | (.69) | -.59 | (.75)
|
| Final |
1.07 | (.75) | -1.21 | (1.37) | 1.31 | (.90) | -.52 | (.61) |
| Nondurable
goods:
| |
| Advance |
-.12 | (.19) | -.94 | (2.54*) | .11 | (.20) | -.61 | (1.33) |
| Preliminary |
-.10 | (.14) | -.62 | (2.24*) | .13 | (.19) | -.32 | (.87)
|
| Final |
.08 | (.11) | -.70 | (2.58*) | .19 | (.28) | -.41 | (1.09) |
| Services:
| |
| Advance |
.80 | (1.59) | -.02 | (.07) | .65 | (1.67) | .50 | (1.88) |
| Preliminary |
.73 | (1.41) | .04 | (.13) | .62 | (1.51) | .54 | (2.00)
|
| Final |
.45 | (.85) | -.12 | (.37) | .45 | (1.05) | .40 | (1.42) |
| Gross private domestic investment:
| |
| Advance |
-5.75 | (1.61) | 2.84 | (1.41) | -4.34 | (1.48) | 3.06 | (1.34) |
| Preliminary |
-3.88 | (1.10) | 1.51 | (.83) | -2.14 | (.71) | 1.90 | (1.02)
|
| Final |
-2.59 | (.75) | 1.98 | (1.06) | -.94 | (.30) | 2.63 | (1.36) |
| Fixed
investment:
| |
| Advance |
-5.04 | (2.65*) | 1.48 | (2.11*) | -3.26 | (2.19*) | 1.99 | (2.48*) |
| Preliminary |
-2.98 | (2.15*) | 1.58 | (2.63*) | -.85 | (.75) | 2.08 | (2.82**)
|
| Final |
-2.31 | (1.80) | 1.66 | (2.57*) | -.21 | (.19) | 2.46 | (3.17**) |
| Nonresidential:
| |
| Advance |
-6.60 | (2.89**) | 1.42 | (1.82) | -4.73 | (2.74**) | 2.21 | (2.29*) |
| Preliminary |
-4.11 | (2.53*) | 1.94 | (2.51**) | -2.12 | (1.83) | 2.76 | (2.87**)
|
| Final |
-2.96 | (1.89) | 2.23 | (3.19**) | -.94 | (.87) | 3.34 | (3.27**) |
| Structures:
| |
| Advance |
-8.40 | (2.36*) | 1.19 | (.87) | -5.59 | (2.39*) | 1.27 | (1.02) |
| Preliminary |
-5.05 | (1.77) | 1.17 | (1.14) | -2.84 | (1.65) | .78 | (.83)
|
| Final |
-3.34 | (1.25) | .35 | (.33) | -1.26 | (.74) | .18 | (.18) |
| Producers'
durable equipment:
| |
| Advance |
-5.69 | (2.90**) | 1.03 | (1.22) | -3.82 | (2.12*) | 1.96 | (1.71) |
| Preliminary |
3.57 | (2.38*) | 2.02 | (2.53*) | -1.19 | (.85) | 3.13 | (2.65*)
|
| Final |
-2.73 | (1.97) | 2.86 | (3.59**) | -.23 | (.17) | 4.19 | (3.43**) |
| Residential:
| |
| Advance |
-.92 | (.46) | 1.69 | (1.51) | -.44 | (.23) | 1.71 | (1.48) |
| Preliminary |
.64 | (.29) | .98 | (.91) | 2.30 | (1.01) | .64 | (.61)
|
| Final |
-.11 | (.06) | .69 | (.57) | 1.34 | (.62) | .52 | (.47) |
| Change
in business inventories/2/ | | | | | | | |
|
| Net exports of goods and
services:/2/ | |
| Exports:
| |
| Advance |
-2.73 | (1.22) | -2.58 | (2.39*) | -2.17 | (1.05) | -1.41 | (1.24) |
| Preliminary |
-.82 | (.36) | -1.54 | (1.58) | -1.31 | (.66) | -.65 | (.64)
|
| Final |
-1.10 | (.52) | -.75 | (.72) | -.99 | (.49) | -.07 | (.06) |
| Imports:
| |
| Advance |
1.17 | (.76) | -.04 | (.02) | .86 | (.44) | 2.02 | (.89) |
| Preliminary |
.56 | (.40) | -.31 | (.15) | 1.05 | (.67) | 2.29 | (.88)
|
| Final |
.39 | (.29) | .81 | (.39) | .50 | (.32) | 3.20 | (1.19) |
| Government purchases:
| |
| Advance |
-.48 | (.46) | .06 | (.07) | -.25 | (.27) | -.53 | (.50) |
| Preliminary |
-.71 | (.63) | .29 | (.34) | -.55 | (.55) | -.14 | (.14)
|
| Final |
.55 | (.48) | .02 | (.02) | -.45 | (.45) | -.51 | (.49) |
| Federal:
| |
| Advance |
1.06 | (.34) | -.03 | (.02) | 1.55 | (.55) | -.17 | (.07) |
| Preliminary |
.80 | (.23) | .67 | (.34) | .79 | (.27) | 1.08 | (.47)
|
| Final |
.99 | (.28) | .06 | (.03) | .92 | (.30) | .27 | (.12) |
| State
and local:
| |
| Advance |
-.78 | (1.10) | .34 | (1.07) | -1.01 | (1.68) | -.59 | (1.90) |
| Preliminary |
-.95 | (1.27) | .22 | (.63) | -1.01 | (1.64) | -.65 | (1.81)
|
| Final |
-1.04 | (1.48) | .17 | (.48) | -.89 | (1.45) | -.70 | (1.90) |
1. Calculated from quarterly percentage changes at
seasonally adjusted annual rates.
2. Because change in business inventories and net exports
contain positive and negative values, the bias cannot be expressed in terms of
percentage changes. When expressed in dollars, the bias in these components is
not significant at the 5-percent confidence level.
* Significant at the 5-percent confidence level.
** Significant at the 1-percent confidence level.
NOTE.—t ratios are shown in parentheses.