Table 2.—Timing Accuracy of Real GDP Estimates at Cyclical Peaks and Troughs

Estimate	Peaks
Estimate	1969:III	1973:IV	1980:I	1981:I	1990:II
Advance	x	x	x	x	y
Preliminary	x	x	x	x	y
Final	(/1/)	(/1/)	x	x	y
First annual	x	(/1/)	(/1/)	(/1/)	y
Second annual	x	x	x	y	x
Third annual	x	x	x	x	x

	Troughs
	1970:IV	1975:I	1980:III	1982:III	1991:I
Advance	x	y	y	y	x
Preliminary	x	x	y	y	x
Final	(/1/)	(/1/)	y	y	x
First annual	x	x	(/1/)	y	x
Second annual	x	x	y	x	x
Third annual	x	x	y	(/1/)	x

1. Estimate was not made.

x Peak or trough correctly identified

y Peak or trough not correctly identified