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Home > Publications > Survey of Current Business > July 2003 - Volume 83 - Number 7 |
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July 2003 - Volume 83 - Number 7Business Situation: Final Estimates for the First Quarter of 2003Real GDP increased 1.4 percent
in the first quarter of 2003, according to the "final" estimates,
the same increase as in the fourth quarter of 2002. The "preliminary"
first-quarter estimates issued a month ago had shown a 1.9-percent increase.
The downward revision to GDP was largely accounted for by a downward revision
to inventory investment. Corporate profits increased $20.4 billion (2.6
percent at a quarterly rate) in the first quarter, an upward revision
of $12.5 billion from the estimates issued a month ago. Real Inventories, Sales, and Inventory-Sales Ratios for Manufacturing and Trade, 2003:IFour tables present the latest
quarterly and monthly estimates of real inventories and sales for manufacturing
and trade and of real inventories by stage of fabri-cation for manufacturing. The International Investment Position of the United States at Yearend 2002 In 2002, the net international
investment position of the United States became more negative, whether
measured on a current-cost basis or on a market-value basis. The net position
at current cost was -$2,387.2 billion at yearend 2002, compared with -$1,979.9
billion (revised from the previous estimate of -$1,948.1 billion) at yearend
2001. The increase in the negative position was mainly due to large net
foreign purchases of U.S. securities, a shift by U.S. investors to net
sellers of foreign securities, and large declines in stock market prices
that lowered the value of U.S.-owned assets abroad more than the value
of foreign-owned assets in the United States. Direct Investment Positions for 2002: Country and Industry Detail In 2002, growth in the historical-cost
position of U.S. direct investment abroad (USDIA) picked up, while the
historical-cost position of foreign direct investment in the United States
(FDIUS) declined for the first time since at least 1946. The 10-percent
increase in the USDIA position reflected strong reinvested earnings and
a shift from inflows to outflows on intercompany debt transactions. The
1-percent decrease in the FDIUS position reflected financial restructuring
and writedowns of investments, reduced requirements by existing U.S. affiliates
for financing by their foreign parents, and a sharp slowdown in new investment
by foreign parents. Annual Revision of the U.S. International Accounts, 1992-2002 Each year, estimates in
the U.S. international transactions accounts and in the U.S. international
investment position accounts are revised to incorporate statistical and
methodological changes and regularly available source data. This year,
major statistical changes include the incorporation of the results of
the U.S. Treasury Department's Benchmark Survey of U.S. Portfolio Investment
Abroad as of December 31, 2001; of the results of BEA's Benchmark Survey
of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad for 1999; and of newly available detail
from the U.S. Treasury Department's statistical collection system. In
addition, a major definitional change has been made to the estimates of
insurance services. Finally, BEA has greatly improved the presentation
in the international transactions accounts of the estimates of direct
investment and of banking, nonbanking, and securities transactions. How BEA Aligns and Augments Source Data From the U.S. Treasury Department for Inclusion in the International Transactions Accounts The estimates of financial-account
flows in BEA's international transactions accounts (ITA's) are built up
from data collected by the U.S. Treasury Department. BEA makes numerous
adjustments to the Treasury data in order to align the data with balance
of payments concepts and to close gaps in coverage. To provide users with
a clearer picture of these adjustments, BEA has prepared three tables
that show the relationship between the ITA estimates and the Treasury
data. U.S. International Transactions, First Quarter 2003 The U.S. current-account
deficit increased $7.5 billion, to $136.1 billion, in the first quarter.
About half of the increase was accounted for by an increase in the deficit
on goods, but decreases in the surpluses on services and on income and
an increase in net outflows for unilateral current transfers also contributed.
Net recorded financial inflows decreased $39.8 billion, as financial outflows
for U.S.-owned assets abroad increased and financial inflows for foreign-owned
assets in the United States decreased. Looking AheadComprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. The initial results of the upcoming comprehensive, or benchmark, revision of the NIPA's are scheduled for release in December 2003. The annual revision of the NIPA estimates for 2000-2002, which would usually be published in the August Survey , will be included as part of the comprehensive revision. The August Survey will include an article about the new and redesigned NIPA tables, and the September Survey will include an article about the statistical changes that will be introduced. (An article in the June Survey described the upcoming changes in definitions and classifications.) BEA Current and Historical Data
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