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Home > Publications > Survey of Current Business > September 2003 - Volume 83 - Number 9 |
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September 2003 - Volume 83 - Number 9Business Situation: Preliminary Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2003 Real GDP increased 3.1 percent in the second quarter
of 2003, according to the "preliminary" estimates, after increasing
1.4 percent in the first quarter. The "advance" estimates
issued last month had shown a 2.4-percent increase in the second quarter.
Corporate profits increased $88.3 billion (10.8 percent at a quarterly
rate) in the second quarter. The Federal Government current deficit
increased $108.1 billion, to $383.4 billion, and the state and local
government current deficit decreased $51.4 billion, to $15.5 billion. Preview of the 2003 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: Statistical Changes The upcoming comprehensive revision will feature a
number of statistical changes that improve the quality of the NIPA estimates
by incorporating data from new sources and by introducing new methods
and techniques. The major source data include the 1997 benchmark input-output
accounts, the 1997 economic censuses, and regular source data that would
normally be incorporated in an annual revision of the NIPAs. The major
methodological changes include the following: Convert the industry estimates
of income and employment to a NAICS basis; employ new methods for estimating
dealers' margins and net purchases of used vehicles in motor vehicle
output; incorporate a new adjustment for stock options into the estimates
of corporate profits; and incorporate several new price indexes, including
new price indexes for nonresidential structures and for photocopying
equipment. Measuring the Services of Commercial Banks in the NIPAs: Changes in Concepts and MethodsAs part of the upcoming NIPA comprehensive revision,
the measure of banks' implicit financial services will be changed to
allocate a portion of these services to borrowers; currently, all of
these services are allocated to depositors. The implicit services to
borrowers will be measured as the difference between the average interest
rate paid by borrowers and a risk-free "reference rate," and
the implicit services to depositors will be measured as the difference
between the "reference rate" and the average interest rate
paid to depositors. As a result of this change, the imputed output of
banks will be reduced, and GDP and gross domestic income will be reduced
even more. Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Detail for Historical-Cost Position and Related Capital and Income Flows, 2002These estimates, which incorporate two major changes in industry classification,
show the geographic and industrial composition of foreign companies'
investment in the United States and the related capital, income, and
services flows. U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Detail for Historical-Cost Position and Related Capital and Income Flows, 2002These estimates, which incorporate the results of
BEA's 1999 benchmark survey of U.S. direct investment abroad, show the
geographic and industrial composition of U.S. companies' investment
abroad and the related capital, income, and services flows. Schedule of BEA News Releases in 2004Looking AheadComprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. The release of the upcoming comprehensive revision of the NIPAs is scheduled for December 10, 2003. An article in the June 2003 Survey described the upcoming changes in definitions and classifications, an article in the August Survey described the new and redesigned NIPA tables, and an article in this issue describes the statistical changes. U.S. International Services. An article presenting the estimates of cross-border trade in services for 2002 and of sales of services through affiliates for 2001 is scheduled to be published in the October Survey. The estimates of cross-border trade will incorporate an improved method for estimating insurance services. BEA Current and Historical Data
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