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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Wednesday, November 28, 2018

BEA 18-64

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2018 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2018 (Preliminary Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.5 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and state and local government spending (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent (revised) in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent (revised) in the second quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in PCE. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.

Current dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent, or $248.4 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $20.66 trillion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

Updates to GDP

The third-quarter percent change in real GDP was unrevised from the advance estimate, reflecting upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment that were offset by downward revisions to PCE and state and local government spending. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

	Advance Estimate	Second Estimate
	(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP	3.5	3.5
Current-dollar GDP	4.9	5.0
Real GDI	…	4.0
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI	…	3.8
Gross domestic purchases price index	1.7	1.7
PCE price index	1.6	1.5

For the second quarter of 2018, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 1.6 percent to 0.9 percent based on newly-available tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

Corporate Profits (table 10)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $76.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $65.0 billion in the second quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $7.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $16.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $66.2 billion, compared with an increase of $53.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $17.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $7.7 billion, and payments decreased $25.3 billion.

* * *

Next release: December 21, 2018 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2018 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2018 (Revised Estimate)

* * *

Release Dates in 2019
Release Dates in 2019

Estimate	2018 Q4 and 2018 annual	2019 Q1	2019 Q2	2019 Q3

Gross Domestic Product
Advance Estimate	January 30, 2019	April 26, 2019	July 26, 2019	October 30, 2019
Second Estimate	February 28, 2019	May 30, 2019	August 29, 2019	November 27, 2019
Third Estimate	March 28, 2019	June 27, 2019	September 26, 2019	December 20, 2019

Corporate Profits
Preliminary Estimate	---	May 30, 2019	August 29, 2019	November 27, 2019
Revised Estimate	March 28, 2019	June 27, 2019	September 26, 2019	December 20, 2019

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Technical Note (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Key source data and assumptions (Excel)

Revision Information

Personal Income

Lisa Mataloni

301-278-9083

piniwd@bea.gov

Corporate Profits

Kate Pinard

(301) 278-9417

cpniwd@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

Resources

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For more on BEA's statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
BEA's news release schedule
NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator and is therefore conceptually equivalent to real GDP.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value." Also referred to as "nominal estimates" or as "current-price estimates."

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons."
Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. t includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj) adjustment in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the geographic borders of the United States. The rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual-vs-quarterly rates. Quarterly seasonally adjusted values are expressed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. This convention is used for BEA's featured, seasonally adjusted measures to facilitate comparisons with related and historical data. For details, see the FAQ "Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?" Quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are expressed only at quarterly rates.

Percent changes.Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ "How is average annual growth calculated?" Percent changes in quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are calculated from the same quarter one year ago. All published percent changes are calculated from unrounded data.

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual and quarterly data are presented on a calendar basis.

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.

Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at least the 5 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage	Average Revision Without Regard to Sign (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second	0.5
Advance to third	0.6
Second to third	0.2
Advance to latest	1.2
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2017. For more information on GDP updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site.

The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.

Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these data are not available until the third estimate.