EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, October 28, 2016
BEA 16—57

* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.

Lisa Mataloni: (301) 278-9083 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Jeannine Aversa: (301) 278-9003 (News Media) Jeannine.aversa@bea.gov
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016
(table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the
second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the
Advance Estimate” on page 3). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete
data, will be released on November 29, 2016.
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and
nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed
investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation
of GDP, increased (table 2).

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected an upturn in private inventory
investment, an acceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, and
an upturn in federal government spending. These were partly offset by a smaller increase in PCE, and a
larger increase in imports.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.4 percent, or $201.1 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $18,651.2
billion. In the second quarter, current dollar GDP increased 3.7 percent, or $168.5 billion (table 1 and
table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with
an increase of 2.1 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.4 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A).

Personal Income (table 10)

Current-dollar personal income increased $153.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase
of $153.1 billion in the second.

Disposable personal income increased $125.3 billion, or 3.6 percent, in the third quarter, compared
with an increase of $140.6 billion, or 4.1 percent, in the second. Real disposable personal income
increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

Personal saving was $800.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $793.5 billion in the second. The
personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.7 percent
in the third quarter, the same as in the second.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate
       Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is
provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. Within a few days
after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. For
information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

                                        *          *          *

                           Next release:  November 29, 2016 at 8:30 A.M. EST
                     Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2016 (Second Estimate)
                     Corporate Profits:  Third Quarter 2016 (Preliminary Estimate)

                                        *          *          *

                                         Release Dates in 2017

Estimate                         2016: IV and annual    2017: I           2017: II           2017: III
Gross Domestic Product
 Advance                         January 27             April 28          July 28            October 27
 Second                          February 28            May 26            August 30          November 29
 Third                           March 30               June 29           September 28       December 21

Corporate Profits
 Preliminary                     …                      May 26            August 30          November 29
 Revised                         March 30               June 29           September 28       December 21

                                         Additional Information


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•	Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API).
•	For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
•	BEA's news release scheduleNIPA Handbook:  Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts


Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy
less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal
consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and
government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is,
at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by
U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services
purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources:  from
participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of
financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from
domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to
personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and
personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.
The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. (For a
comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts (NIPAs) with personal
saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States, go to

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless
otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For
detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual
rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index
numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are
calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent
periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by
multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and
then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels
are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.

Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those
of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference
between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are
released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates
are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed
and more comprehensive data as they become available.

Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at
least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available
major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.
Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major
periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between
different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage                               Average Revision Without Regard to Sign
                                         (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second                                     0.5
Advance to third                                      0.6
Second to third                                       0.2
Advance to latest                                     1.1
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2015. For more information on GDP
updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site.

The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic
comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.

Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic
profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these
data are not available until the third estimate.