Research at BEA | Authors | Staff Biography

Tien, Pao-Lin
Office of the Chief Economist
(301) 278-9653


  • B.A., Wesleyan University
  • M.A., Washington University in St. Louis
  • Ph.D., Washington University in St. Louis

Current Areas of Interest

  • Empirical macroeconomics
  • International finance
  • Monetary economics

Working Papers

  • "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy"
    • with Norhana Endut and James Morley
  • "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?"
    • with Tara M. Sinclair and Edward N. Gamber
  • "Using Long-Run Restrictions to Identify the Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations"
  • "Understanding the Evolution of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights of Asian Exchange Rates"
    • with Anh Tuan Nguyen Viet and Sophia Park

Selected Publications

  • "Economic Discomfort and Consumer Sentiment"
    • with Michael C. Lovell
    • Eastern Economic Journal, Vol. 26, No. 1, Winter 2000
  • "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?"
    • with James Morley and Jeremy Piger
    • Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 17, Issue 5, December 2013
  • "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Two Centuries"
    • with Bill Craighead
    • Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 56, September 2015