This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Measuring the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer Spending Using Card Transaction Data

We evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using daily card transaction data. Overall, we find large effects of this pandemic on sectors such as accommodations and restaurants, which by the second week of March, show declines of around 80 percent and 70… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Kyle K. Hood, Alexander Driessen
Published
JEL Code(s)E01, E21
WP2020-5

Measuring the Small Business Economy

To better track the overall growth and relative contributions of small business in the U.S. economy, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is developing new economic statistics by business size. The paper begins with a description of existing economic statistics for small businesses, including… Read more

Tina Highfill, Richard Cao, Richard Schwinn, Richard Prisinzano, Danny Leung
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2020-4

Energy Efficiency in General Equilibrium with Input-Output Linkages

Industrial activity periodically experiences breakthrough innovations in energy efficiency, but the estimated impacts of these innovations on aggregate energy use are highly varied. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate whether this variation is determined by the structure of the… Read more

Juan Moreno-Cruz
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2020-1

Toward Developing Estimates Of U.S. Imports Of Illegal Drugs

This paper explores potential ways to develop experimental estimates of the value of U.S. imports of illegal drugs. It builds on the initial exploration of this topic by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Soloveichik (2019), which presents experimental estimates of U.S. domestic… Read more

Sarah Atkinson
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2020-2

Nowcasting of Advance Estimates of Personal Consumption of Services in the U.S. National Accounts: Individual vs Forecasting Combination Approach

This paper evaluates two individual nowcasting frameworks, the bridge equation and bridging with factors model, in concert with a set of forecast combination techniques for nowcasting the advance estimates of quarterly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) of services at the detailed component… Read more

Baoline Chen, Kyle K. Hood
Published
JEL Code(s)C53, E01
BEA-WP2021-3

Measuring Trade in Services by Mode of Supply

This paper reviews the efforts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to measure international services categorized by mode of supply. BEA has adopted a survey form that uses an innovative approach to collect information on mode of supply by simply having companies report the percentage of its… Read more

Michael Mann
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2019-7

Current-Account Asymmetries in U.S.–EU Statistics

The United States and the European Union are the foremost trading partners in the world, with total bilateral current-account transactions exceeding $1.8 trillion in 2017, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat). In… Read more

Kristy L. Howell, Jessica Hanson, Robert Obrzut, Olaf Nowak
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2019-6

Investment Funds in the U.S. National Accounts

Investment funds, which include mutual funds, other regulated investment companies, and real estate investment trusts, play an increasingly important role in the U.S. economy, with financial assets of about $23 trillion in 2017. Currently, in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs… Read more

Robert Kornfeld
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2019-5

Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic Accounts

The internationally agreed guidelines for national economic accounts, System of National Accounts 2008 (hereafter referred to as SNA 2008) (United Nations Statistics Division 2008), explicitly recommend that illegal market activity should be included in the measured economy. This recommendation… Read more

Rachel Soloveichik
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2019-4

Are Medical Care Prices Still Declining? A Systematic Examination of Quality-Adjusted Price Index Alternatives for Medical Care

More than two decades ago a well-known study provided evidence from heart attack treatments suggesting that prices in medical care were actually declining, when appropriately adjusted for quality. Our paper revisits this subject looking at a large number of conditions and more recent and more… Read more

Seidu Dauda, Abe C. Dunn, Anne E. Hall
Published
JEL Code(s)None Assigned
WP2019-3