Survey of Current Business
March 2018
Volume 98, Number 3

NIPA Translation of the Fiscal Year 2019 Federal Budget

PDF of this article

On February 12, 2018, the President submitted the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2019 to Congress. This article presents projected estimates of federal government receipts and expenditures for fiscal years 2018 and 2019 that are consistent with the projected and proposed receipts and outlays defined in the budget but measured on a national income and product account (NIPA) basis. These estimates are presented to assist readers in projecting what the effects of budgeted receipts and outlays would be on aggregate economic activity. They will also be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to inform estimates of federal government transactions for the coming year, including the federal government component of gross domestic product (GDP).

For both 2018 and 2019, estimates of federal government current receipts measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of receipts, and estimates of federal government current expenditures measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of outlays.1 Net federal government saving, defined as the difference between NIPA estimates of current receipts and current expenditures is –$886.6 billion for 2018 and –$964.6 billion for 2019. The budget surplus, defined as the difference between budget estimates of receipts and outlays, is –$832.6 billion for 2018 and –$984.4 billion for 2019 (chart 1, table 1).

The adjustments that were made to “translate” budget estimates into NIPA estimates are presented in table 2 and table 3. Differences between NIPA estimates and budget estimates of spending on national defense are shown in table 4. For more information about the conceptual differences between NIPA measures and budget measures of government transactions, see the box “NIPA Estimates of the Federal Sector and the Federal Budget Estimates” at the end of this article.

Table 1. Budget Receipts and Outlays and NIPA Federal Government
Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year
Actual Estimates
2017 2018 2019 2018 2019
Budget:          
Receipts 3,316.2 3,340.4 3,422.3 24.2 81.9
Outlays 3,981.6 4,173.0 4,406.7 191.4 233.7
Surplus or deficit (–) −665.4 −832.6 −984.4 −167.2 −151.8
NIPAs:          
Current receipts 3,522.3 3,554.0 3,671.9 31.7 117.9
Current expenditures 4,211.4 4,440.6 4,636.5 229.2 195.9
Net federal government saving −689.1 −886.6 −964.6 −197.5 −78.0
           
Budget receipts less NIPA current receipts −206.1 −213.6 −249.6 −7.5 −36.0
Budget outlays less NIPA current expenditures −229.8 −267.6 −229.8 −37.8 37.8
Budget deficit less NIPA net federal government saving 23.7 54.0 −19.8 30.3 −73.8
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 2. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current
Receipts to Budget Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2017 2018 2019
Budget receipts 3,316.2 3,340.4 3,422.3
       
Less: Coverage differences 35.8 38.5 31.5
Contributions received by federal employee pension and insurance funds1 4.2 4.7 5.0
Capital transfers received2 22.6 24.5 16.7
Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other3 9.0 9.3 9.8
       
Less: Netting and grossing differences −239.6 −228.9 −265.2
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −88.6 −99.9 −105.2
Interest receipts −49.5 −35.7 −50.7
Current surplus of government enterprises −1.1 10.5 −0.4
Other4 −100.5 −103.7 −109.0
       
Plus: Timing differences 2.3 23.3 15.8
Taxes on corporate income 4.2 9.2 2.7
Federal and state unemployment insurance taxes 1.6 −1.2 −0.2
Withheld personal income tax and social security contributions −17.8 23.6 11.8
Excise taxes 9.1 −4.2 −1.5
Other 5.4 −4.1 2.9
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current receipts 3,522.3 3,554.0 3,671.9

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 3. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current
Expenditures to Budget Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2017 2018 2019
Budget outlays 3,981.6 4,173.0 4,406.7
       
Less: Coverage differences 22.2 −35.4 37.9
Federal employee pension and insurance fund transactions1 −96.0 −99.5 −107.7
Interest accrued −181.3 −186.1 −190.8
Contributions accrued (employer) −69.2 −66.5 −71.2
Benefits paid 154.3 152.9 154.1
Administrative expenses 0.3 0.2 0.2
Financing disbursements from credit programs2 −41.1 −100.7 −92.9
Other differences in funds covered3 12.3 12.3 12.8
Net investment4 10.1 17.2 41.0
Capital transfers paid5 81.8 73.2 109.2
Financial transactions 56.4 66.9 79.1
Loan disbursements less loan repayments and sales 69.5 82.4 70.8
Deposit insurance 1.3 −2.2 1.4
Net purchases of foreign currency 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other −14.5 −13.3 7.0
Net purchases of nonproduced assets −2.2 −5.6 −4.4
Other6 0.8 0.8 0.8
Less: Netting and grossing differences −239.6 −228.9 −265.2
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −88.6 −99.9 −105.2
Interest receipts −49.5 −35.7 −50.7
Current surplus of government enterprises −1.1 10.5 −0.4
Other7 −100.5 −103.7 −109.0
       
Plus: Timing differences 12.4 3.3 2.5
Purchases (increase in payables net of advances) 2.1 −1.5 2.7
Interest payments 0.2 0.2 0.2
Current transfer payments −0.8 22.0 0.2
Other8 10.9 −17.4 −0.6
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current expenditures 4,211.4 4,440.6 4,636.5
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis

Table 4. Relation of National Defense Consumption
Expenditures and Gross Investment to National Defense Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2017 2018 2019
Budget outlays for national defense 598.7 643.3 688.6
Department of Defense, military 568.9 612.5 656.9
Military personnel 144.7 145.2 159.8
Operation and maintenance 245.2 255.9 275.2
Procurement 104.1 107.4 118.6
Aircraft 33.3 32.5 34.3
Missiles 6.0 6.7 8.1
Ships 14.2 14.6 16.1
Weapons 4.8 5.1 5.9
Ammunition 1.3 2.3 2.5
Other1 44.6 46.3 51.7
Research, development, test, and evaluation 68.1 72.8 86.1
Other 6.8 31.3 17.1
Atomic energy and other defense-related activities 29.8 30.7 31.7
       
Plus: Consumption of general government fixed capital 158.4 158.4 157.8
Additional payments to military and civilian retirement funds 95.4 98.5 100.7
       
Less: Grants-in-aid to state and local governments and net interest paid 0.5 0.5 0.6
Timing differences 3.3 −1.8 −5.1
Other differences 111.3 122.0 123.5
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment 737.4 779.5 828.1
       
Less: National defense gross investment2 151.5 159.9 176.9
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures 585.9 619.6 651.3
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Budget projects increases in federal receipts of $24.2 billion in 2018 and $81.9 billion in 2019 (table 5). These increases can be attributed largely to budget assumptions about economic activity and real GDP over these years.2 Projected economic growth would result in an expansion of the tax base and an increase in individual and employment taxes in both years. Taxes on corporate income, which would normally also increase during periods of economic growth, are projected to decline in 2018 because of a lowering of corporate tax rates enacted by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Table 5. Budget Receipts by Source
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Budget receipts 3,268.0 3,316.2 3,340.4 3,422.3 48.2 24.2 81.9
Individual income taxes 1,546.1 1,587.1 1,660.1 1,687.7 41.0 72.9 27.7
Corporation income taxes 299.6 297.0 217.6 225.3 −2.5 −79.4 7.7
Social insurance taxes and contributions 1,115.1 1,161.9 1,169.7 1,237.6 46.8 7.8 67.9
Excise taxes 95.0 83.8 108.2 108.4 −11.2 24.4 0.2
Estate and gift taxes 21.4 22.8 24.7 16.8 1.4 1.9 −7.8
Customs duties 34.8 34.6 40.4 43.9 −0.3 5.9 3.4
Miscellaneous receipts 156.0 129.0 119.7 106.0 −27.1 −9.3 −13.7
Other1 0.0 0.0 0.0 −3.5 0.0 0.0 −3.5

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019.

The Budget projects increases in federal outlays of $191.4 billion in 2018 and $233.7 billion in 2019 (table 6). The largest contributors to these increases are outlays for social security benefits, defense outlays, and interest on the public debt. The acceleration in projected federal outlays from 2018 to 2019 can be largely attributed to the pattern of outlays for federal direct student loan programs and Medicare benefits and to an increase in outlays for community and regional development related to a proposed infrastructure initiative.

Table 6. Budget Outlays by Function
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Budget outlays 3852.6 3981.6 4173.0 4406.7 128.9 191.4 233.7
National defense 593.4 598.7 643.3 688.6 5.4 44.5 45.4
International affairs 45.3 46.3 47.3 63.3 1.0 1.0 16.0
General science, space, and technology 30.2 30.4 31.7 32.5 0.2 1.3 0.7
Energy 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.2 0.1 0.1 −0.7
Natural resources and environment 39.5 37.9 40.4 38.3 −1.6 2.5 −2.1
Agriculture 18.3 18.9 26.9 20.5 0.5 8.1 −6.4
Commerce and housing credit −34.1 −26.8 4.9 −23.4 7.2 31.7 −28.3
Transportation 92.6 93.6 94.4 94.0 1.0 0.8 −0.4
Community and regional development 20.1 24.9 54.3 70.4 4.8 29.4 16.0
Education, training, employment, and social services 109.7 144.0 98.6 100.6 34.2 −45.4 2.0
Health 511.3 533.1 594.1 594.3 21.8 60.9 0.2
Medicare 594.5 597.3 588.4 631.0 2.8 −8.9 42.7
Income security 514.1 503.5 498.8 499.6 −10.7 −4.7 0.8
Social security 916.1 944.9 992.5 1052.1 28.8 47.7 59.5
Veterans benefits and services 174.5 176.5 177.2 197.9 2.0 0.7 20.7
Administration of justice 55.8 57.9 69.6 65.2 2.2 11.6 −4.3
General government 22.7 23.9 26.3 29.3 1.2 2.4 3.0
Net interest 240.0 262.6 310.3 363.4 22.5 47.8 53.1
Allowances1 0.0 0.0 −28.0 −9.9 0.0 −28.0 18.1
Undistributed offsetting receipts 2 −95.3 −89.8 −102.0 −104.1 5.4 −12.1 −2.1

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019.

Proposed legislative and program changes

The budget projections include the receipts and outlays that would result from the continuation of current laws and policies as well as the projected effects of policy proposals that have not yet been enacted. The Budget also presents estimates of receipts and outlays that are consistent with the current services baseline, which represents the expected deficit outlook. This baseline serves as the most appropriate benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed policy changes. In this article, the term “proposed legislation” refers to any policies that are included in budget estimates but that are not included in current services baseline estimates.3

If enacted, proposed legislation would increase federal receipts $3.3 billion for 2019 and would increase federal outlays $18.6 billion for 2019. The resulting net effect of proposed legislation would be to increase the federal deficit $15.3 billion (table 7). The legislative proposals that would have the largest effects on federal receipts and outlays in 2019 include the following:

  • An initiative to incentivize nonfederal funding for infrastructure investment would increase outlays by $44.6 billion. In NIPA estimates, these outlays are recorded primarily as capital transfer payments (table 10, line 126).
  • An initiative to reform the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other welfare programs would decrease outlays by a $21.4 billion. In NIPA estimates, these outlays are recorded as either social benefits (line 65) or as grants-in-aid to state and local governments (line 83).
  • A proposal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would decrease federal receipts by $3.5 billion and would increase federal outlays by $3.3 billion. In NIPA estimates, the decrease in receipts is recorded as a reduction in personal taxes (line 3), and the increase in outlays is recorded as an increase in social benefits (line 65).
Table 7. Proposed Legislative and Program Changes in the Budget
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2018 2019
Receipts    
Current-services estimates 3,340.3 3,424.3
     
Plus: Proposed legislation excluding proposals assumed in the baseline1 0.1 −2.0
Repeal and Replace the Affordable Care Act 0.0 −3.5
Other 0.1 1.5
     
Equals: The budget 3,340.4 3,422.3
     
Outlays    
Current-services estimates 4,169.6 4,388.1
     
Plus: Program changes excluding proposals assumed in the baseline1 3.4 18.6
Infrastructure Initiative 0.0 44.6
Reform welfare programs 0.0 −21.4
Repeal and Replace the Affordable Care Act 0.0 3.3
Other 3.4 −7.8
     
Equals: The budget 4,173.0 4,406.7
     
Current-services surplus or deficit (–) −829.3 −963.8
Plus: Proposed changes, receipts less outlays −3.3 −20.6
Equals: Administration budget surplus or deficit (–) −832.6 −984.4

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019.

NIPA estimates of federal government current receipts that are consistent with the Budget increase $31.7 billion in 2018 and $117.9 billion in 2019 (table 8 and chart 2). The acceleration in 2019 is primarily due to a smaller decrease in corporate taxes and to upturns in dividends and other transfer receipts from businesses in 2018.

NIPA estimates of federal government current expenditures that are consistent with the Budget increase $229.2 billion in 2018 and $196.0 billion in 2019 (table 9 and chart 3). The deceleration in 2019 is largely due to downturns in grants-in-aid to state and local governments and in nondefense consumption expenditures. The deceleration in grants-in-aid is caused by a deceleration in federal funding for Medicaid and a downturn in federal funding for income security programs administered by state governments.

Table 8. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2017 2018 2019
Total current receipts 63.9 31.7 117.9
       
Current tax receipts 8.3 7.0 16.5
Personal current taxes 51.7 72.0 24.2
Due to tax bases 51.7 72.0 26.9
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 −2.7
       
Taxes on production and imports −2.0 17.8 8.0
Due to tax bases −2.0 17.8 7.7
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.3
       
Taxes on corporate income −42.2 −83.6 −15.7
Due to tax bases −42.2 −83.6 −15.8
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.1
       
Taxes from the rest of the world 0.9 0.7 0.0
       
Contributions for government social insurance 32.4 58.5 64.0
Due to tax bases 32.4 58.5 64.0
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.0
       
Income receipts on assets 15.8 −12.5 15.1
       
Current transfer receipts 3.5 −9.7 11.3
       
Current surplus of government enterprises 3.9 −11.6 10.9
       
Addenda:      
Total due to tax bases 39.9 64.7 82.8
Total due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 −2.3
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 9. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2017 2018 2019
Total current expenditures 100.6 229.2 196.0
       
Consumption expenditures 15.0 50.4 23.8
National defense −36.7 33.8 31.6
Pay raise and locality pay 0.0 5.3 7.9
Other −36.7 28.5 23.7
Nondefense 51.7 16.6 −7.9
Pay raise and locality pay 0.0 2.7 1.0
Other 51.7 13.9 −8.8
       
Current transfer payments 63.2 124.3 119.5
Government social benefits to persons 51.6 73.4 126.0
Government social benefits to the rest of the world 1.6 1.1 1.4
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 13.6 45.0 −8.9
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world −3.5 4.8 0.9
       
Federal interest paid 20.3 54.1 56.6
       
Subsidies 2.1 0.4 −3.9
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Seasonally adjusted quarterly NIPA estimates for 2018 and 2019 are displayed in table 10. These quarterly estimates are extrapolated from NIPA estimates currently published for the fourth quarter of 2017, which were released on February 28, 2018.4 The quarterly patterns of these NIPA estimates are based on economic assumptions from the Budget and on expectations about the timing of receipts and expenditures related to specific government programs or policy proposals. For example, the quarterly patterns of estimates of some tax receipts are based on the administration's projected pattern of wages while cost-of-living increases for social security and certain other programs are incorporated into estimates of social benefits in the first quarter of each calendar year.

Because these quarterly projections are based on budget estimates and assumptions, they should be viewed as approximations. Improvements will be made to these estimates as actual receipts and spending occur, as economic conditions change, as new laws are enacted, and as more source data become available. More reliable contemporaneous estimates will be published monthly in NIPA table 3.2 and in related underlying tables.

Table 10. NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars; calendar year and quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

  Line Fiscal year estimates1 Calendar year Quarter
Published2 Estimated Published2 Estimated
2017 2018 2019
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 I II III IV I II III IV I II III
Current receipts 1 3,522.3 3,554.0 3,671.9 3,595.0 3,581.6 3,589.2 3,556.4 3,618.4 3,616.2 3,571.7 3,574.1 3,579.2 3,601.4 3,671.6 3,726.9 3,791.4
                                   
Current tax receipts 2 2,110.2 2,117.2 2,133.7 2,166.7 2,120.7 2,133.4 2,150.7 2,176.8 2,205.9 2,141.3 2,128.1 2,114.4 2,099.0 2,138.5 2,179.9 2,238.5
Personal current taxes 3 1,572.0 1,644.0 1,668.2 1,603.5 1,613.5 1,574.0 1,586.5 1,613.8 1,639.8 1,605.0 1,621.4 1,622.4 1,605.3 1,627.1 1,653.3 1,699.9
Withheld income taxes 4 1,295.7 1,319.9 1,299.7 1,336.2 1,285.3 1,308.4 1,319.7 1,345.8 1,370.8 1,282.4 1,294.2 1,291.2 1,273.5 1,272.8 1,289.2 1,322.5
Declarations and final settlements less refunds 5 276.2 324.1 368.5 267.3 328.2 265.7 266.8 267.9 268.9 322.6 327.2 331.2 331.8 354.3 364.2 377.4
Proposed legislation 6 ..... 0.0 −2.7 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 −3.7 −3.7 −3.7
Other 7 276.2 324.1 371.3 267.3 328.2 265.7 266.8 267.9 268.9 322.6 327.2 331.2 331.8 357.9 367.8 381.0
                                   
Taxes on production and imports 8 135.7 153.6 161.6 132.2 153.8 128.8 131.6 132.8 135.4 152.1 153.3 154.1 155.8 155.6 156.8 158.6
Proposed legislation 9 ..... 0.0 0.3 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
Other 10 135.7 153.6 161.2 132.2 153.8 128.8 131.6 132.8 135.4 152.1 153.3 154.1 155.8 155.2 156.3 158.2
                                   
Taxes on corporate income 11 380.5 296.9 281.2 408.7 330.4 408.8 410.4 407.8 407.8 361.4 330.4 315.0 315.0 332.9 346.9 357.1
Federal Reserve Banks 12 81.9 72.7 55.7 83.5 68.4 92.4 88.6 76.5 76.5 74.5 71.2 66.7 61.0 56.4 53.0 50.8
Proposed legislation 13 ..... 0.0 0.0 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 14 81.9 72.7 55.7 83.5 68.4 92.4 88.6 76.5 76.5 74.5 71.2 66.7 61.0 56.4 53.0 50.8
Other corporate profit tax accruals 15 298.6 224.2 225.5 325.2 262.1 316.4 321.8 331.3 331.3 286.9 259.2 248.2 254.0 276.4 293.9 306.3
Proposed legislation 16 ..... 0.0 0.0 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other 17 298.6 224.2 225.4 325.2 262.1 316.4 321.8 331.3 331.3 286.9 259.2 248.2 254.0 276.4 293.8 306.2
                                   
Taxes from the rest of the world 18 22.0 22.7 22.7 22.3 22.9 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9
                                   
Contributions for social insurance 19 1,267.7 1,326.3 1,390.3 1,287.2 1,348.0 1,269.2 1,278.9 1,293.4 1,307.4 1,327.4 1,339.7 1,354.1 1,370.7 1,395.4 1,406.8 1,411.8
Domestic 20 1,261.9 1,320.1 1,383.9 1,281.7 1,342.2 1,263.7 1,273.4 1,287.9 1,301.8 1,321.7 1,334.0 1,348.3 1,364.8 1,389.5 1,400.8 1,405.7
Old age, survivors, disability, and hospital insurance 21 1,108.5 1,156.0 1,213.7 1,129.2 1,178.0 1,111.4 1,121.1 1,135.3 1,148.9 1,158.5 1,170.2 1,183.9 1,199.7 1,221.9 1,233.0 1,237.9
Tax on wages and salaries (FICA, gross) 22 1,045.9 1,090.9 1,144.9 1,064.3 1,109.3 1,047.6 1,056.6 1,070.1 1,082.8 1,091.1 1,101.9 1,114.7 1,129.5 1,150.7 1,161.0 1,165.4
Proposed legislation 23 ..... 0.0 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rate change 24 ..... 0.0 0.0 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base increases 25 ..... 1.0 4.8 ..... 1.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.9 5.9
January 2018 26 ..... 1.0 1.3 ..... 1.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
January 2019 27 ..... ..... 3.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 4.6
Other 28 1,045.9 1,089.9 1,140.1 1,064.3 1,108.0 1,047.6 1,056.6 1,070.1 1,082.8 1,089.8 1,100.6 1,113.3 1,128.1 1,144.8 1,155.1 1,159.5
FICA refunds 29 −3.3 −3.4 −3.6 −3.3 −3.5 −3.3 −3.3 −3.3 −3.3 −3.5 −3.5 −3.5 −3.5 −3.7 −3.7 −3.7
Voluntary hospital insurance 30 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
Tax on self-employment earnings (SECA) 31 62.5 64.8 68.5 64.9 68.7 63.9 64.5 65.2 66.1 67.5 68.3 69.1 70.1 71.3 72.0 72.4
Proposed legislation 32 ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base increases 33 ..... 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
Other 34 62.5 64.3 67.7 64.9 68.1 63.9 64.5 65.2 66.1 66.8 67.6 68.5 69.4 70.4 71.2 71.6
Supplementary medical insurance 35 84.1 95.1 101.2 81.5 94.4 81.4 81.5 81.6 81.6 93.7 94.1 94.6 95.1 97.6 97.8 97.8
Unemployment insurance 36 47.9 47.4 46.9 49.4 47.8 49.5 49.3 49.4 49.4 47.7 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.6 47.6 47.6
Other 37 21.4 21.6 22.1 21.6 22.0 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.4
Rest of the world 38 5.8 6.2 6.4 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0
                                   
Income receipts on assets 39 59.4 47.0 62.1 58.5 38.0 76.5 59.9 59.4 38.1 33.0 34.2 35.0 49.6 49.9 50.4 50.9
Interest receipts 40 28.3 33.7 36.1 32.2 34.1 31.8 32.9 32.8 31.4 32.9 34.0 34.7 35.0 35.3 35.8 36.4
Dividends 41 25.6 6.3 18.9 20.3 −3.2 40.0 20.2 20.6 0.2 −6.8 −6.8 −6.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Rents and royalties 42 5.5 6.9 7.0 6.0 7.1 4.7 6.8 6.0 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0
                                   
Current transfer receipts 43 83.9 74.1 85.5 86.5 82.3 113.5 70.7 92.8 68.8 76.2 80.3 84.6 87.9 89.6 89.1 88.6
From business 44 44.4 49.6 59.4 43.6 51.8 62.1 37.8 37.6 37.0 45.8 50.4 54.5 56.7 57.7 56.6 55.9
From persons 45 24.9 22.1 23.9 29.4 29.1 28.6 29.4 29.8 29.7 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.9 30.7 31.2 31.5
From the rest of the world 46 14.5 2.5 2.2 13.4 1.4 22.7 3.5 25.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
                                   
Current surplus of government enterprises 47 1.1 −10.5 0.4 −3.8 −7.3 −3.4 −3.8 −4.1 −4.1 −6.2 −8.2 −9.0 −5.7 −1.9 0.7 1.6
Postal Service 48 −2.0 −1.9 −2.5 −2.4 −2.9 −1.9 −2.2 −2.6 −3.0 −2.1 −2.7 −4.0 −2.8 −2.9 −2.9 −3.1
Federal Housing Administration 49 0.6 −10.7 0.1 −2.6 −5.2 −2.9 −3.0 −2.6 −1.9 −4.9 −6.2 −5.8 −3.8 0.0 2.3 3.3
Tennessee Valley Authority 50 2.7 3.1 3.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2
Other 51 −0.3 −1.0 −0.9 −1.5 −2.2 −1.2 −1.4 −1.6 −1.8 −2.0 −2.2 −2.2 −2.2 −2.1 −1.9 −1.7
                                   
Current expenditures 52 4,211.4 4,440.6 4,636.5 4,253.3 4,531.2 4,242.0 4,198.3 4,235.5 4,337.3 4,470.5 4,525.9 4,557.1 4,571.1 4,661.4 4,703.3 4,739.0
                                   
Consumption expenditures 53 975.6 1,026.0 1,049.8 977.8 1,064.2 968.0 970.8 981.1 991.5 1,058.5 1,070.1 1,070.2 1,058.0 1,065.6 1,075.5 1,086.3
National defense 54 585.9 619.6 651.3 588.7 627.7 581.6 584.7 590.1 598.5 618.1 628.7 630.4 633.4 644.3 656.3 668.2
Pay raises and locality pay 55 ..... 5.3 13.2 ..... 7.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 15.2 15.2 15.2
January 2018 56 ..... 5.3 7.1 ..... 7.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
January 2019 57 ..... ..... 6.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 8.2 8.2
Other 58 585.9 614.3 638.1 588.7 620.6 581.6 584.7 590.1 598.5 611.0 621.6 623.4 626.4 629.1 641.1 653.0
Nondefense 59 389.8 406.4 398.5 389.1 436.5 386.3 386.1 391.0 393.0 440.3 441.4 439.8 424.6 421.3 419.1 418.1
Pay raises and locality pay 60 ..... 2.7 3.7 ..... 3.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
January 2018 61 ..... 2.7 3.7 ..... 3.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
January 2019 62 ..... ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 63 389.8 403.7 394.9 389.1 432.9 386.3 386.1 391.0 393.0 436.9 437.7 436.1 420.9 417.6 415.5 414.4
                                   
Current transfer payments 64 2,692.4 2,816.7 2,936.2 2,709.4 2,819.9 2,700.9 2,685.6 2,718.3 2,732.8 2,783.4 2,813.7 2,833.7 2,848.8 2,918.9 2,934.6 2,939.4
Government social benefits 65 2,080.0 2,154.5 2,281.9 2,096.6 2,180.7 2,082.7 2,090.4 2,101.2 2,112.1 2,146.6 2,169.1 2,195.9 2,211.3 2,288.9 2,309.5 2,323.7
To persons 66 2,057.7 2,131.0 2,257.0 2,074.8 2,158.1 2,061.2 2,068.8 2,079.3 2,090.0 2,124.3 2,146.6 2,173.2 2,188.2 2,265.4 2,285.5 2,299.1
Social Security 67 918.6 964.8 1,024.0 926.1 979.7 916.1 922.8 930.0 935.4 964.0 974.1 984.8 995.9 1,028.4 1,034.0 1,036.8
Regular 68 918.6 950.5 986.9 926.1 960.7 916.1 922.8 930.0 935.4 945.0 955.1 965.7 976.9 985.3 990.9 993.6
Benefit increases 69 ..... 14.3 37.1 ..... 19.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 43.2 43.2 43.2
January 2018 70 ..... 14.3 19.0 ..... 19.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
January 2019 71 ..... ..... 18.1 ..... 0.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1 24.1 24.1
Medicare 72 669.5 692.3 742.2 674.3 702.4 667.4 671.5 676.4 681.9 685.7 695.0 706.9 722.1 737.8 749.8 759.3
Unemployment benefits 73 30.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 27.4 30.2 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4
Veterans benefits 74 102.1 108.7 117.4 98.1 106.3 95.4 97.9 99.1 100.1 103.5 105.2 107.1 109.2 113.1 114.1 114.6
Railroad retirement 75 12.5 13.3 13.1 12.5 12.8 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.9 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.5
Military medical insurance 76 14.5 14.8 14.6 15.1 15.3 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits 77 63.7 62.7 45.2 64.3 63.3 63.0 61.8 64.0 68.2 67.9 67.6 67.3 50.5 50.2 50.1 50.0
Black lung benefits 78 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Supplemental security income 79 52.7 53.4 53.7 52.1 52.9 51.9 51.9 52.1 52.2 53.2 53.1 52.9 52.5 53.6 53.4 53.3
Refundable tax credits 80 133.0 131.6 143.0 139.7 131.5 143.4 141.8 138.4 135.4 132.6 132.3 131.4 129.9 149.8 149.0 148.7
All other 81 60.5 59.8 74.5 63.6 66.2 66.1 64.6 62.6 61.0 61.2 63.3 67.2 72.9 77.1 80.0 81.4
To rest of the world 82 22.4 23.5 24.9 21.8 22.7 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.6
                                   
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 83 563.4 608.4 599.5 560.3 583.6 564.2 544.1 568.6 564.4 581.0 588.0 587.1 578.4 572.8 568.0 565.7
General public service 84 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
National defense 85 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Public order and safety 86 4.9 5.2 4.0 4.1 2.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6
Economic affairs 87 9.8 11.0 10.8 10.0 10.2 9.6 10.4 10.4 9.8 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8
Transportation3 88 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Space 89 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other economic affairs 90 9.7 10.9 10.7 9.9 10.1 9.5 10.3 10.3 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.7
General economic and labor affairs 91 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
Agriculture 92 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Energy 93 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Natural resources 94 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6
Housing and community services 95 17.9 19.0 19.6 18.2 18.7 17.5 19.2 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.2
Health 96 394.4 419.7 426.8 387.5 404.0 394.9 373.0 395.2 386.7 398.1 404.4 407.1 406.4 406.8 406.0 405.6
Medicaid 97 373.9 399.6 411.2 372.2 392.0 381.1 356.6 378.7 372.4 384.4 391.6 395.5 396.4 398.0 398.0 398.0
Prescription drug plan clawback 98 −11.1 −11.9 −12.4 −11.4 −12.1 −10.9 −11.2 −11.9 −11.7 −11.9 −12.0 −12.2 −12.3 −12.4 −12.4 −12.5
Other 99 31.6 32.1 28.0 26.7 24.1 24.6 27.6 28.5 26.0 25.6 24.8 23.7 22.2 21.1 20.4 20.0
Recreation and culture 100 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Education 101 37.7 38.4 37.5 37.6 36.4 38.2 38.5 37.3 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.4 36.0 35.7 35.5 35.5
Income security 102 95.2 111.9 97.5 100.6 109.6 97.3 95.9 101.3 108.2 112.5 113.1 109.8 102.8 97.4 93.9 92.1
Disability 103 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Welfare and social services 104 80.9 85.9 79.2 83.0 83.8 82.3 82.9 82.6 84.2 85.5 85.4 83.7 80.7 78.4 76.8 76.1
Unemployment 105 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6
Other 106 7.8 19.6 12.3 11.6 20.1 8.8 6.8 12.6 18.0 21.2 22.0 20.5 16.6 13.6 11.7 10.7
                                   
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world 107 49.0 53.8 54.7 52.4 55.6 54.0 51.0 48.5 56.2 55.9 56.6 50.7 59.1 57.2 57.0 50.0
                                   
Federal interest paid 108 482.1 536.1 592.7 504.9 585.0 512.7 482.3 475.3 549.5 565.2 579.4 592.1 603.4 617.8 635.4 656.1
                                   
Subsidies 109 61.3 61.7 57.8 61.1 62.0 60.5 59.6 60.8 63.4 63.5 62.7 61.1 60.9 59.1 57.9 57.3
Agricultural 110 12.1 10.9 9.8 12.4 10.9 12.8 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.8 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.9
Housing 111 37.2 37.6 35.3 36.3 35.7 36.8 36.2 35.8 36.3 36.4 36.2 35.6 34.7 33.9 33.5 33.2
Other 112 11.9 13.1 12.7 12.4 15.4 10.9 10.7 12.7 15.4 15.6 15.4 14.7 15.9 15.0 14.4 14.2
                                   
Net federal government saving 113 −689.1 −886.5 −964.6 −658.2 −949.5 −652.8 −641.9 −617.0 −721.1 −898.8 −951.8 −977.9 −969.7 −989.8 −976.4 −947.6
                                   
Addenda:
Gross investment4 114 279.7 293.1 318.6 282.8 299.5 276.4 285.0 282.5 287.3 290.9 295.6 301.4 310.0 316.6 322.6 328.2
National defense 115 151.5 159.9 176.9 155.7 162.1 148.6 156.6 156.5 160.9 156.5 159.3 163.1 169.5 174.4 179.4 184.4
Nondefense 116 128.1 133.2 141.7 127.1 137.4 127.8 128.4 125.9 126.4 134.5 136.3 138.3 140.5 142.2 143.3 143.8
                                   
Consumption expenditures and gross investment 117 1,255.3 1,319.1 1,368.4 1,260.7 1,363.7 1,244.3 1,255.8 1,263.5 1,278.9 1,349.4 1,365.7 1,371.7 1,368.0 1,382.2 1,398.1 1,414.5
National defense 118 737.4 779.5 828.1 744.4 789.8 730.2 741.4 746.7 759.4 774.6 788.0 793.6 802.9 818.7 835.7 852.6
Nondefense 119 517.9 539.6 540.3 516.2 573.9 514.1 514.5 516.9 519.5 574.8 577.7 578.1 565.1 563.5 562.4 561.9
                                   
Total receipts 120 3,544.9 3,578.6 3,688.6 3,617.0 3,602.1 3,610.5 3,578.0 3,640.2 3,639.1 3,594.9 3,596.3 3,599.1 3,617.9 3,685.8 3,739.9 3,804.5
Current receipts 121 3,522.3 3,554.0 3,671.9 3,595.0 3,581.6 3,589.2 3,556.4 3,618.4 3,616.2 3,571.7 3,574.1 3,579.2 3,601.4 3,671.6 3,726.9 3,791.4
Capital transfer receipts 122 22.6 24.5 16.7 21.9 20.4 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.9 23.2 22.2 20.0 16.5 14.2 13.1 13.1
Total expenditures 123 4,306.8 4,533.6 4,789.8 4,355.6 4,646.7 4,320.5 4,285.4 4,393.9 4,422.6 4,579.8 4,624.7 4,672.0 4,710.3 4,818.9 4,874.7 4,920.0
Current expenditures 124 4,211.4 4,440.6 4,636.5 4,253.3 4,531.2 4,242.0 4,198.3 4,235.5 4,337.3 4,470.5 4,525.9 4,557.1 4,571.1 4,661.4 4,703.3 4,739.0
Gross government investment 125 279.7 293.1 318.6 282.8 299.5 276.4 285.0 282.5 287.3 290.9 295.6 301.4 310.0 316.6 322.6 328.2
Capital transfer payments 126 87.5 81.5 116.7 93.8 92.9 75.4 76.2 150.2 73.5 94.5 80.1 91.0 106.1 118.1 126.1 130.1
Net purchases of nonproduced assets 127 −2.2 −5.6 −4.4 −0.5 −0.4 −0.4 −0.6 −0.3 −0.7 −0.7 −0.7 −0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Less: Consumption of fixed capital 128 269.6 275.9 277.6 273.8 276.5 272.8 273.6 273.9 274.9 275.6 276.2 276.9 277.3 277.6 277.7 277.7
Net lending or net borrowing (–) 129 −761.9 −955.0 −1,101.2 −738.7 −1,044.6 −710.0 −707.4 −753.7 −783.5 −984.9 −1,028.4 −1,072.9 −1,092.4 −1,133.1 −1,134.8 −1,115.5
FICA
Federal Insurance Contributions Act
SECA
Self-Employment Contributions Act
NIPAs
National income and product accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2019 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Budget estimates of government receipts are allocated into five major NIPA receipts categories: current tax receipts, contributions for government social insurance, income receipts on assets, current transfer receipts, and current surplus of government enterprises. These allocations are consistent with national accounting standards and are based on information and assumptions from the Budget and on projections of the effects of specific budget proposals from the Department of the Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis.

Budget estimates of government outlays are organized by appropriation in the Budget Appendix. These data and supplemental data from the Office of Management and Budget are used to allocate federal budget outlays into four major NIPA expenditures categories: current transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, and consumption expenditures and gross investment.

The allocation of budget receipts and outlays into NIPA categories will be used, along with supplemental administrative data, to inform how federal government receipts and spending reported by the U.S. Treasury Department are allocated into NIPA categories to produce monthly and quarterly NIPA estimates.

When quarterly NIPA estimates are published, estimates of defense consumption expenditures and gross investment will be reconciled with outlays reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement using financial, delivery, and other information from the Department of Defense. For nondefense expenditures, extrapolations of budget data will be used to estimate some categories of spending, including expenditures for durable goods, other nondurable goods, services, and equipment for which no quarterly source data are available. Other categories of spending will incorporate quarterly source data, such as data for construction from the Census Bureau and for compensation from the Office of Personnel Management and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 


  1. For a historical perspective of the relationship between budget receipts and outlays and NIPA receipts and expenditures, see NIPA “Table 3.18B. Relation of Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts to the Budget.”
  2. For a more detailed accounting of the economic assumptions that underlie budget estimates, see chapter 2, “Economic Assumptions and Interactions with the Budget,” in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
  3. The current services baseline for the fiscal year 2019 Budget includes the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was enacted in December 2017.
  4. Because quarterly NIPA estimates are extrapolated from published estimates, the average of the 4 fiscal year quarters may not equal the displayed fiscal year values, which are consistent with budget data.