Table 2.—Measures of Revisions in Quarterly Changes in GNP and GDP

Percentage points/1/ Percent
Dispersion Bias Relative dispersion Relative bias Upward revisions Directional misses
Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final
Current-dollar estimates
Gross national product:
Study I:
1947-56/2/3.5-1.045-1410
1947-52 3.3-1.234-149
1953-56 2.1-.836-1912
1957-61 1.2-.118-30
Study II:
1947-63/2/3.1-.943-156012
1958-63/2/1.6-.325-5504
1964-71 1.21.0-.8-.61613-10-8697200
Study III:
1968-72/2/1.11.1-.7-.61313-9-7685355
1973-72 2.42.2-1.0-.62421-10-6655544
1978-83 1.91.51.5-.8-.5-.2201515-8-5-2586763448
Study IV:
1968-77/2/2.11.8-1.0-.72219-11-8676233
1978-86 1.71.51.5-.5-.3-.2191717-6-4-2545751336
Study V:
1978-82/2/2.01.81.8-1.0-.7-.3211918-10-7-3705555555
1983-91 1.21.21.2-.3-.2-.3181718-.4-3-4586461000
Gross domestic product:
Study V:
1978-82/2/1.91.81.8-.9-.6-.3201919-10-6-460555551010
1983-91 1.21.11.2-.2-.1-.2171717-3-2-4536158000
Constant-dollar estimates
Gross national product:
Study I:
1947-56/2/
1947-52
1953-56
1957-61
Study II:
1947-63/2/
1958-63/2/
1964-72/3/1.01.0.1-.227242-7465400
Study III:
1968-72/2/1.41.3-.2-.23232-5-54253115
1973-77 2.01.8-.6-.44138-20-146565105
1978-83 1.51.31.2-.7-.5-.1383130-29-22-6636358171013
Study IV:
1968-77/2/2.42.40.258591649492118
1978-86 1.51.41.5-.4-.3-.2383537-17-12-757545714109
Study V:
1978-82/2/1.61.61.7-.6-.4-.1444445-55-37-7505045302320
1983-91 1.31.21.30.10383838030564747888
Gross domestic product:
Study V:
1978-82/2/1.61.71.8-.5-.3-.1454848-45-24-5455040252320
1983-91 1.31.31.3.1.10373840341504450777

1. Calculated from quarterly percentage changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

2. Estimates for this period incorporate one or more comprehensive revisions.

3. For the constant-dollar estimates, revisions in the advance estimates are for 1966-71, and those for the preliminary estimates, 1965-71.

NOTE.—See page 00 in the text for definitions of the revision measures. The measures were calculated using the revisions between the "current" estimates and the "latest available" estimates. The "latest available" estimates used for each study are as follows:

Study I.—The first line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revision in 1958, which incorporated information from the 1954 Economic Censuses. The next three lines use as "latest available" estimates those from the annual revisions in 1953, 1957, and 1963, respectively; in general, these estimates had not undergone a comprehensive revision. See George Jaszi, "The Quarterly National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1942-62," National Income and Wealth: Series XI, Studies in Short-Term National Accounts and Long-Term Economic Growth, pp. 139-141.

Study II.—The first two lines use as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revision in 1965, which incorporated information from the 1958 Economic Censuses; the 1958-63 period is included because the "preliminary" estimate was introduced in 1958. The third line uses as "latest available" estimates those from successive annual revisions. See Allan H. Young, Reliability of the Quarterly National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1947-71, Bureau of Economic Analysis Staff Paper No. 23, July 1974, pp. 6-10.

Study III.—The first line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revisions in 1976 and 1980, which incorporated information from the 1963, 1967, and 1972 Economic Censuses. The second line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revision in 1980, which did not fully incorporate economic census information in that the 1977 Economic Censuses had not yet been fully incorporated. The third line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the annual revisions in 1982 and 1984. See Robert P. Parker, "Revisions to the Initial Estimates of Quarterly Gross National Product of the United States, 1968-83," paper presented at Seminar on Provisional and Revised Estimates of Economic Data, University of Florence, Florence, Italy, November 1984.

Study IV.—The first line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revision in 1985, which incorporated information from the 1977 Economic Censuses. The second line uses as "latest available" estimates for 1978-82 those from the comprehensive revision in 1985, which did not fully incorporate economic census information in that the 1982 Economic Censuses had not yet been fully incorporated, for 1983-85 those from the annual revision in 1985, and for 1986 those available prior to the annual revision in 1987. See Allan H. Young, "Evaluation of the GNP Estimates," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 67 (August 1987): 18-42.

Study V.—The first line uses as "latest available" estimates those from the comprehensive revision in 1991, which incorporated information from the 1982 Economic Censuses. The second line uses as "latest available" estimates for 1983-88 those from the comprehensive revision in 1991, which did not fully incorporate economic census information in that the 1987 Economic Censuses had not yet been fully incorporated, and for 1989-91 those available prior to the annual revision in 1993.