Table 5.—Bias in the Quarterly Changes in GDP and Its Components

[Percentage points/1/]

Current dollars Constant dollars
1978-82 1983-91 1978-82 1983-91
Gross domestic product:
Advance -0.93(1.59)-0.21(0.91)-0.53(1.05)0.09(0.35)
Preliminary -.55(1.07)-.12(.53)-.28(.58).13(.53)
Final -.34(.66)-.24(1.03)-.06(.12).03(.12)
Personal consumption expenditures:
Advance .45(.98)-.54(1.87).42(.89)0(.00)
Preliminary .30(.65)-.38(1.34).31(.59).14(.52)
Final .28(.59)-.49(1.71).30(.56).04(.15)
Durable goods:
Advance 1.56(1.05)-1.48(1.71)1.61(1.13)-.91(1.06)
Preliminary .63(.44)-1.25(1.56).99(.69)-.59(.75)
Final 1.07(.75)-1.21(1.37)1.31(.90)-.52(.61)
Nondurable goods:
Advance -.12(.19)-.94(2.54*).11(.20)-.61(1.33)
Preliminary -.10(.14)-.62(2.24*).13(.19)-.32(.87)
Final .08(.11)-.70(2.58*).19(.28)-.41(1.09)
Services:
Advance .80(1.59)-.02(.07).65(1.67).50(1.88)
Preliminary .73(1.41).04(.13).62(1.51).54(2.00)
Final .45(.85)-.12(.37).45(1.05).40(1.42)
Gross private domestic investment:
Advance -5.75(1.61)2.84(1.41)-4.34(1.48)3.06(1.34)
Preliminary -3.88(1.10)1.51(.83)-2.14(.71)1.90(1.02)
Final -2.59(.75)1.98(1.06)-.94(.30)2.63(1.36)
Fixed investment:
Advance -5.04(2.65*)1.48(2.11*)-3.26(2.19*)1.99(2.48*)
Preliminary -2.98(2.15*)1.58(2.63*)-.85(.75)2.08(2.82**)
Final -2.31(1.80)1.66(2.57*)-.21(.19)2.46(3.17**)
Nonresidential:
Advance -6.60(2.89**)1.42(1.82)-4.73(2.74**)2.21(2.29*)
Preliminary -4.11(2.53*)1.94(2.51**)-2.12(1.83)2.76(2.87**)
Final -2.96(1.89)2.23(3.19**)-.94(.87)3.34(3.27**)
Structures:
Advance -8.40(2.36*)1.19(.87)-5.59(2.39*)1.27(1.02)
Preliminary -5.05(1.77)1.17(1.14)-2.84(1.65).78(.83)
Final -3.34(1.25).35(.33)-1.26(.74).18(.18)
Producers' durable equipment:
Advance -5.69(2.90**)1.03(1.22)-3.82(2.12*)1.96(1.71)
Preliminary 3.57(2.38*)2.02(2.53*)-1.19(.85)3.13(2.65*)
Final -2.73(1.97)2.86(3.59**)-.23(.17)4.19(3.43**)
Residential:
Advance -.92(.46)1.69(1.51)-.44(.23)1.71(1.48)
Preliminary .64(.29).98(.91)2.30(1.01).64(.61)
Final -.11(.06).69(.57)1.34(.62).52(.47)
Change in business inventories/2/
Net exports of goods and services:/2/
Exports:
Advance -2.73(1.22)-2.58(2.39*)-2.17(1.05)-1.41(1.24)
Preliminary -.82(.36)-1.54(1.58)-1.31(.66)-.65(.64)
Final -1.10(.52)-.75(.72)-.99(.49)-.07(.06)
Imports:
Advance 1.17(.76)-.04(.02).86(.44)2.02(.89)
Preliminary .56(.40)-.31(.15)1.05(.67)2.29(.88)
Final .39(.29).81(.39).50(.32)3.20(1.19)
Government purchases:
Advance -.48(.46).06(.07)-.25(.27)-.53(.50)
Preliminary -.71(.63).29(.34)-.55(.55)-.14(.14)
Final .55(.48).02(.02)-.45(.45)-.51(.49)
Federal:
Advance 1.06(.34)-.03(.02)1.55(.55)-.17(.07)
Preliminary .80(.23).67(.34).79(.27)1.08(.47)
Final .99(.28).06(.03).92(.30).27(.12)
State and local:
Advance -.78(1.10).34(1.07)-1.01(1.68)-.59(1.90)
Preliminary -.95(1.27).22(.63)-1.01(1.64)-.65(1.81)
Final -1.04(1.48).17(.48)-.89(1.45)-.70(1.90)

1. Calculated from quarterly percentage changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

2. Because change in business inventories and net exports contain positive and negative values, the bias cannot be expressed in terms of percentage changes. When expressed in dollars, the bias in these components is not significant at the 5-percent confidence level.

* Significant at the 5-percent confidence level.

** Significant at the 1-percent confidence level.

NOTE.—t ratios are shown in parentheses.