Table 7.—Linear Trends in Dispersion and Bias in Revisions in the Quarterly Changes in GDP

[Percentage points/1/]

Dispersion Bias
Advance to preliminary Preliminary to final Advance to final To third annual revision estimate from: Advance to preliminary Preliminary to final Advance to final To third annual revision estimate from:
Advance Preliminary Final Advance Preliminary Final
Current-dollar estimates
Period beginning with 1978:
Slope coefficient(-)(-*)(-)(-)(-)(-)(+)(+*)(+)(+)(+)(+)
First-trend value0.90.51.02.01.71.7-0.3-0.2-0.5-1.1-0.7-0.5
Last-trend value.5.3.61.21.01.1-.2.20-.20-.1
Period beginning with 1982:
Slope coefficient(+)(-)(-)(-)(-)(-)(-)(+)(-)(-)(-)(-)
First-trend value.5.4.92.42.72.6.4-.1.3.6-.10
Last-trend value.5.3.71.61.61.6-.2.1-.1-.2-.2-.2
Constant-dollar estimates
Period beginning with 1978:
Slope coefficient(-)(-*)(-)(-)(+)(+)(+)(+*)(+)(+)(+)(+)
First-trend value.6.5.81.71.41.4-.2-.3-.5-.9-.7-.4
Last-trend value.5.2.51.41.51.7-.1.2.10.1-.1
Period beginning with 1982:
Slope coefficient(-)(-)(-)(-)(-)(-)(-)(+)(+)(+)(+)(+)
First-trend value.5.5.91.91.91.8.1-.1-.1-1.2-1.3-1.2
Last-trend value.5.3.61.61.61.7-.1.10-.5-.4-.5

* Significant at the 5-percent confidence level.

1. Calculated from quarterly percentage changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates.