FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 1998 James E. Rankin: (202)606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 98-34 Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays) Recorded message: 606-5303 PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: SEPTEMBER 1998 Personal income increased $12.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $9.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in September, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $31.9 billion, or 0.5 percent. In August, personal income increased $29.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, DPI increased $19.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $25.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates. 1998 May June July Aug. Sept. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 Disposable personal income: Current dollars .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 Chained (1992) dollars .1 .3 .2 .2 .2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars 1.0 .6 .0 .4 .5 Chained (1992) dollars .8 .6 -.2 .3 .6 Wages and salaries Private wage and salary disbursements increased $3.3 billion in September, compared with an increase of $27.7 billion in August. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $1.6 billion, in contrast to an increase of $9.9 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $2.2 billion, compared with an increase of $8.8 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $3.6 billion, compared with an increase of $4.9 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $1.4 billion, compared with an increase of $13.0 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.9 billion, compared with an increase of $2.6 billion. Other personal income Proprietors' income increased $0.7 billion in September, in contrast to a decrease of $2.5 billion in August. Farm proprietors' income decreased $2.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $1.9 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $2.7 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $0.6 billion. Transfer payments increased $3.0 billion in September, compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in August. Personal interest income increased $1.2 billion, compared with an increase of $1.0 billion. Personal dividend income increased $0.9 billion, compared with an increase of $0.4 billion. Rental income of persons increased $0.6 billion, compared with an increase of $0.4 billion. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $2.3 billion in September, compared with an increase of $10.7 billion in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $9.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in September, compared with an increase of $19.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, in August. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $32.7 billion in September, compared with an increase of $26.9 billion in August. PCE increased $31.9 billion, compared with an increase of $25.4 billion. Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was a negative $12.0 billion in September, in contrast to a positive $11.0 billion in August. The negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal income. Negative personal saving, or dissaving, may occur when outlays are financed by borrowing -- including borrowing through credit cards or home equity loans -- selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.2 percent in September, in contrast to a positive 0.2 percent in August. Chained (1992) dollar estimates Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.6 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Purchases of durable goods increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent; motor vehicle purchases accounted for most of the increase in each month. Purchases of nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent in September, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in August. Purchases of services increased 0.4 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Revisions Estimates have been revised for July and August. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1992) dollar PCE for July and August -- revised and as published in the previous release -- are shown below. Change from preceding month July August Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars . . 29.8 27.4 0.4 0.4 37.9 29.6 0.5 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars . . 24.4 22.5 .4 .4 28.5 19.0 .5 .3 Chained (1992) dollars 13.3 11.3 .2 .2 19.1 10.8 .4 .2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars . . -7.5 0.4 -.1 .0 36.4 25.4 .6 .4 Chained (1992) dollars -14.7 -8.0 -.3 -.2 26.4 16.7 .5 .3 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for October will be released on November 25, at 8:30 A.M. EST. Table 1. -- Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Apr. 98 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income..................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,055.3 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,131.8 7,161.4 7,173.5 Wage and salary disbursements..... 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,097.6 4,124.3 4,131.0 4,153.5 4,183.7 4,189.0 Private industries.............. 2,990.2 3,225.7 3,414.0 3,438.6 3,442.8 3,463.4 3,491.1 3,494.4 Goods-producing industries.... 909.0 975.0 1,022.8 1,025.5 1,021.3 1,020.8 1,030.7 1,029.1 Manufacturing............... 674.6 719.5 750.8 753.2 748.3 743.7 752.5 754.7 Distributive industries....... 823.3 879.8 926.4 935.6 934.4 941.5 946.4 950.0 Service industries............ 1,257.9 1,370.8 1,464.7 1,477.5 1,487.1 1,501.0 1,514.0 1,515.4 Government...................... 640.9 664.2 683.6 685.7 688.1 690.1 692.7 694.6 Other labor income................ 387.0 392.9 404.7 405.7 406.6 407.5 408.3 409.2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 527.7 551.2 570.2 570.2 574.8 576.3 573.8 574.5 Farm............................ 38.9 35.5 27.2 27.7 28.2 26.2 24.3 22.3 Nonfarm......................... 488.8 515.8 543.0 542.5 546.6 550.2 549.6 552.3 Rental income of persons with CCAdj........................... 150.2 158.2 159.4 160.9 162.6 163.1 163.5 164.1 Personal dividend income.......... 248.2 260.3 262.0 262.1 262.3 262.4 262.8 263.7 Personal interest income.......... 719.4 747.3 761.2 762.8 765.0 766.5 767.5 768.7 Transfer payments to persons...... 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,143.8 1,145.3 1,148.3 1,150.2 1,151.7 1,154.7 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits. 538.0 565.9 583.7 585.1 586.2 588.0 588.7 589.6 Government unemployment insurance benefits............ 21.9 19.9 19.6 19.4 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.6 Other........................... 508.0 524.6 540.5 540.8 542.5 542.7 543.8 545.6 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................ 306.3 326.2 343.6 345.5 346.2 347.7 350.0 350.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Apr. 98 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,055.3 7,085.9 7,104.4 7,131.8 7,161.4 7,173.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........................... 890.5 989.0 1,083.3 1,094.9 1,100.5 1,105.3 1,116.0 1,118.3 Equals: Disposable personal income... 5,534.7 5,795.1 5,972.0 5,990.9 6,004.0 6,026.5 6,045.5 6,055.2 Less: Personal outlays............... 5,376.2 5,674.1 5,914.4 5,970.4 6,005.2 6,007.6 6,034.5 6,067.2 Personal consumption expenditures... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,723.9 5,782.1 5,815.0 5,815.4 5,840.8 5,872.7 Interest paid by persons............ 143.6 161.5 170.6 168.4 170.4 171.6 173.2 174.0 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 16.9 18.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.5 20.5 20.5 Equals: Personal saving.............. 158.5 121.0 57.6 20.5 -1.2 18.9 11.0 -12.0 Addenda: Disposable personal income: Chained (1992) dollars 1/........... 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,311.7 5,318.8 5,334.0 5,345.3 5,356.1 5,366.6 Per capita: Current dollars................... 20,840 21,633 22,145 22,200 22,231 22,296 22,347 22,364 Chained (1992) dollars............ 18,989 19,349 19,697 19,709 19,751 19,776 19,799 19,820 Population (thousands).............. 265,579 267,880 269,669 269,862 270,069 270,289 270,524 270,761 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income ......... 2.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. 1/ Disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [Billions of dollars] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------ 1996 1997 Apr. 98 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 353.1 358.8 21.4 30.6 18.5 27.4 29.6 12.1 Wage and salary disbursements........ 202.6 258.7 18.3 26.7 6.7 22.5 30.2 5.3 Private industries................ 184.4 235.5 16.1 24.6 4.2 20.6 27.7 3.3 Goods-producing industries...... 45.1 66.0 2.7 2.7 -4.2 -0.5 9.9 -1.6 Manufacturing................. 26.7 44.9 -1.0 2.4 -4.9 -4.6 8.8 2.2 Distributive industries......... 40.4 56.5 5.9 9.2 -1.2 7.1 4.9 3.6 Service industries.............. 99.0 112.9 7.4 12.8 9.6 13.9 13.0 1.4 Government........................ 18.2 23.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.6 1.9 Other labor income.................. -14.6 5.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj............................. 39.6 23.5 1.4 0.0 4.6 1.5 -2.5 0.7 Farm.............................. 16.5 -3.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 -2.0 -1.9 -2.0 Nonfarm........................... 23.2 27.0 0.8 -0.5 4.1 3.6 -0.6 2.7 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................. 16.5 8.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 Personal dividend income............ 55.4 12.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 Personal interest income............ 14.5 27.9 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 Transfer payments to persons........ 52.1 42.4 -0.9 1.5 3.0 1.9 1.5 3.0 Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits... 30.2 27.9 -0.7 1.4 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.9 Government unemployment insurance benefits.............. 0.5 -2.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 Other............................. 21.4 16.6 -0.1 0.3 1.7 0.2 1.1 1.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................. 12.7 19.9 1.4 1.9 0.7 1.5 2.3 0.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments............................ 95.5 98.5 10.9 11.6 5.6 4.8 10.7 2.3 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 257.6 260.4 10.5 18.9 13.1 22.5 19.0 9.7 Less: Personal outlays................ 279.0 297.9 29.7 56.0 34.8 2.4 26.9 32.7 Personal consumption expenditures... 261.8 278.0 26.4 58.2 32.9 0.4 25.4 31.9 Interest paid by persons............ 16.0 17.9 2.6 -2.2 2.0 1.2 1.6 0.8 Personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net)........... 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 Equals: Personal saving............... -21.3 -37.5 -19.2 -37.1 -21.7 20.1 -7.9 -23.0 Addendum: Disposable personal income, chained (1992) dollars.......... 136.9 140.1 2.2 7.1 15.2 11.3 10.8 10.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Apr. 98 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98p ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 5,215.7 5,493.7 5,723.9 5,782.1 5,815.0 5,815.4 5,840.8 5,872.7 Durable goods....................... 643.3 673.0 698.6 724.3 737.3 705.6 713.4 727.5 Nondurable goods.................... 1,539.2 1,600.6 1,646.8 1,657.9 1,661.0 1,669.9 1,670.3 1,671.8 Services............................ 3,033.2 3,220.1 3,378.5 3,399.9 3,416.7 3,440.0 3,457.1 3,473.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 4,752.4 4,913.5 5,091.1 5,133.4 5,166.1 5,158.1 5,174.8 5,204.9 Durable goods....................... 626.1 668.6 704.2 734.0 749.8 716.6 727.0 744.6 Nondurable goods.................... 1,450.9 1,486.3 1,536.8 1,540.7 1,545.2 1,551.2 1,547.4 1,550.3 Services............................ 2,676.7 2,761.5 2,854.3 2,866.1 2,880.0 2,894.5 2,905.2 2,916.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1992 = 100) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 109.75 111.81 112.43 112.64 112.56 112.74 112.87 112.83 Durable goods....................... 102.75 100.66 99.20 98.68 98.33 98.45 98.14 97.70 Nondurable goods.................... 106.08 107.69 107.16 107.61 107.49 107.65 107.94 107.83 Services............................ 113.32 116.61 118.36 118.62 118.63 118.85 119.00 119.10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from preceding period ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 261.8 278.0 26.4 58.2 32.9 0.4 25.4 31.9 Durable goods....................... 32.3 29.7 1.0 25.7 13.0 -31.7 7.8 14.1 Nondurable goods.................... 65.6 61.4 8.0 11.1 3.1 8.9 0.4 1.5 Services............................ 164.0 186.9 17.5 21.4 16.8 23.3 17.1 16.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal consumption expenditures..... 146.8 161.1 16.8 42.3 32.7 -8.0 16.7 30.1 Durable goods....................... 37.0 42.5 0.4 29.8 15.8 -33.2 10.4 17.6 Nondurable goods.................... 33.3 35.4 5.4 3.9 4.5 6.0 -3.8 2.9 Services............................ 77.1 84.8 10.5 11.8 13.9 14.5 10.7 11.3 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 5. -- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1996 1997 Apr. 98 May 98 June 98 July 98r Aug. 98r Sep. 98p -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Personal income....................... 5.8 5.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 Disposable personal income............ 4.9 4.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 Personal consumption expenditures..... 5.3 5.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 Durable goods....................... 5.3 4.6 0.1 3.7 1.8 -4.3 1.1 2.0 Nondurable goods.................... 4.4 4.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 Services............................ 5.7 6.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposable personal income............ 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Personal consumption expenditures..... 3.2 3.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.6 Durable goods....................... 6.3 6.8 0.1 4.2 2.1 -4.4 1.4 2.4 Nondurable goods.................... 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.2 Services............................ 3.0 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- p Preliminary. r Revised. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.