FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EDT THURSDAY, APRIL 30, 1998 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 98-11 Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 1998 (ADVANCE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent. Real GDP increased $76.0 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $66.0 billion in the fourth. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter estimates are based on preliminary and incomplete source data. Information on the assumptions used for missing source data is available on request. Revised estimates based on more comprehensive data will be issued next month. The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods and services, producers' durable equipment (PDE), and residential structures. The contributions of these components were partially offset by an increase in imports of goods and services, and decreases in government spending and in exports of goods and services. The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected a sharp upturn in PDE, an acceleration in PCE, and an acceleration in residential structures. The acceleration in GDP was moderated by a downturn in exports, a deceleration in inventory investment, an acceleration in imports, a downturn in government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential structures than in the fourth quarter. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, was unchanged in the first quarter; the index increased 1.4 percent in the fourth. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 5.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth. Durable goods purchases increased 18.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Nondurable goods increased 5.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.2 percent. Services expenditures increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 17.6 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 8.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.3 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 28.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 17.6 percent, compared with an increase of 9.1 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 8.3 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.6 percent, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 8.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 16.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.0 percent. Nondefense increased 11.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 8.6 percent. Real state and local government increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. The real change in business inventories added 0.2 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 1.4 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $77.0 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $74.0 billion in the fourth quarter and $47.5 billion in the third. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 4.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 6.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the fourth. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $113.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $106.6 billion in the fourth. Personal tax and nontax payments increased $10.3 billion, compared with an increase of $24.1 billion. Disposable personal income increased $103.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $82.5 billion in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 6.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.5 percent. Personal outlays increased $81.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $54.8 billion in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $257.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with $235.8 billion in the fourth. The saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- increased from 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter to 4.2 percent in the first. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.2 percent, or $104.8 billion, in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP also increased 5.2 percent, or $103.1 billion. * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to: http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $69.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $35.00 domestic, $43.75 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. * * * Next release -- May 28, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 1998 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 1998 Measures of Revision Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: Advance estimates, based on preliminary and incomplete source data and BEA assumptions about the missing source data, are released in the first month after the end of the quarter; preliminary and final estimates, which incorporate additional and revised source data, are released in the second and third months, respectively. Additional revisions are carried out in each of the following 3 years, usually in July, and in comprehensive (benchmark) revisions, usually every 5 years. The latest estimates, which reflect the results of these revisions, are based on new and revised source data and also reflect improved estimating procedures, and definitional or classificational changes. The table below provides summary measures of the amount of revision in past years in quarterly percent changes in current-dollar GDP and real GDP. These measures can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in the final estimate were within a range of -0.7 to +0.8 percentage point. Thus, based on past experience, it is likely that the first-quarter change in real GDP now estimated at 4.2 percent at an annual rate, will not be revised below 3.5 percent or above 5.0 percent in the next two releases. Revision in Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Changes at Annual Rate Range Quarterly estimates Average Two-thirds Nine-tenths compared without regard of of to sign revisions revisions Current-dollar GDP Advance to final....... 0.7 -0.7 to 1.0 -1.2 to 1.4 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .6 to .7 Advance to latest...... 1.1 - .7 to 1.6 -2.1 to 3.1 Preliminary to latest.. 1.0 - .9 to 1.6 -2.1 to 2.7 Final to latest........ 1.1 - .8 to 1.5 -2.1 to 2.7 Real GDP Advance to final....... 0.6 -0.7 to 0.8 -1.1 to 1.2 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .5 to .6 Advance to latest...... 1.1 -1.0 to 1.3 -1.9 to 2.7 Preliminary to latest.. 1.2 -1.0 to 1.3 -2.3 to 2.9 Final to latest........ 1.2 -1.5 to 1.6 -2.2 to 2.7 NOTE.--These measures are based on the period from 1983 through 1994. Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 131.4 186.3 260.4 84.2 58.0 54.4 66.0 76.0 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 109.3 118.8 153.4 61.7 11.3 66.8 29.9 68.5 Durable goods............................ 22.4 27.5 34.4 20.7 -8.8 27.1 3.2 28.4 Nondurable goods......................... 22.7 19.7 26.2 16.6 -7.8 15.5 -4.6 18.7 Services................................. 64.1 71.4 93.1 25.7 25.9 26.3 30.3 24.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 46.6 79.6 81.9 10.3 32.4 37.9 5.3 47.6 Nonresidential........................... 58.1 65.2 76.6 8.1 28.1 37.5 -1.8 36.0 Structures............................. 7.4 8.8 6.7 -1.0 -2.4 3.2 -1.2 -4.5 Producers' durable equipment........... 51.5 57.7 73.0 9.9 32.7 36.0 -.5 44.7 Residential.............................. -10.0 15.1 7.4 2.2 4.9 1.9 6.2 11.9 Change in business inventories............. -33.3 -2.3 40.7 30.8 13.9 -30.1 26.5 3.0 Net exports of goods and services.......... 5.8 -15.6 -32.1 -20.7 -10.3 -27.5 5.0 -40.6 Exports.................................. 78.8 65.8 105.7 21.6 39.8 10.5 19.7 -8.6 Imports.................................. 73.1 81.4 137.7 42.3 50.2 38.0 14.7 32.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -.4 6.0 11.7 -1.3 9.6 3.3 1.0 -6.3 Federal.................................. -16.3 -6.1 -7.2 -6.8 7.3 -1.3 -2.7 -9.7 National defense....................... -14.3 -4.8 -9.2 -9.7 5.5 .9 .8 -13.9 Nondefense............................. -2.0 -1.4 1.8 2.8 1.7 -2.2 -3.2 3.8 State and local.......................... 15.9 12.1 19.0 5.4 2.4 4.6 3.6 3.6 Residual................................... 1.3 -1.9 -.7 1.5 .4 -1.3 -.1 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.6 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 2.5 5.7 Durable goods............................ 4.0 4.7 5.6 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.9 18.4 Nondurable goods......................... 1.6 1.4 1.8 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.2 5.2 Services................................. 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 3.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 5.1 8.3 7.9 3.9 12.6 14.4 1.8 17.6 Nonresidential........................... 9.0 9.2 9.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -.8 17.6 Structures............................. 4.3 4.8 3.6 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -2.3 -8.9 Producers' durable equipment........... 10.8 10.9 12.5 6.7 23.0 24.1 -.3 28.8 Residential.............................. -3.8 5.9 2.7 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.1 17.6 Exports of goods and services.............. 11.1 8.3 12.3 9.9 18.4 4.4 8.3 -3.4 Imports of goods and services.............. 8.9 9.1 14.2 17.9 20.5 14.6 5.3 11.6 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .0 .5 .9 -.4 3.1 1.1 .3 -2.0 Federal.................................. -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.3 -8.3 National defense....................... -4.3 -1.5 -2.9 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.0 -16.7 Nondefense............................. -1.4 -.9 1.2 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 11.0 State and local.......................... 2.1 1.6 2.4 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 .9 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 2.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -.7 -2.0 -2.1 -4.8 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 2.2 -2.2 -3.9 -5.3 -7.6 -3.0 -2.1 -11.1 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 .3 Durable goods............................ 1.0 -.4 -1.6 -.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.9 Nondurable goods......................... 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.4 .0 1.3 1.3 -1.3 Services................................. 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.3 -.1 -.2 -.9 -.2 .3 .0 -1.8 Nonresidential........................... .4 -1.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -.8 -1.0 -2.7 Structures............................. 4.2 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.9 4.2 4.1 2.9 Producers' durable equipment........... -1.0 -2.3 -3.1 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 -2.8 -4.7 Residential.............................. 3.6 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.4 3.2 2.6 .5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 3.3 3.3 2.4 3.5 1.4 1.4 3.3 .8 Federal.................................. 3.3 3.4 2.4 4.9 1.3 .9 3.5 .7 National defense....................... 3.1 3.9 2.4 4.3 1.1 .6 2.6 1.4 Nondefense............................. 3.9 2.3 2.5 6.1 1.5 1.5 5.5 -.7 State and local.......................... 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 .8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,742.1 6,928.4 7,188.8 7,101.6 7,159.6 7,214.0 7,280.0 7,356.0 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 791.2 857.0 962.7 922.7 962.5 973.0 992.7 984.1 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 890.1 971.5 1,109.2 1,048.9 1,099.1 1,137.1 1,151.8 1,183.8 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,837.5 7,037.7 7,324.6 7,220.9 7,286.9 7,364.6 7,426.1 7,536.7 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,595.3 4,714.1 4,867.5 4,818.1 4,829.4 4,896.2 4,926.1 4,994.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 962.1 1,041.7 1,123.6 1,079.0 1,111.4 1,149.3 1,154.6 1,202.2 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 27.3 25.0 65.7 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 77.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,251.9 1,257.9 1,269.6 1,260.5 1,270.1 1,273.4 1,274.4 1,268.1 Less: Change in business inventories....... 27.3 25.0 65.7 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 77.0 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,808.1 7,010.2 7,253.9 7,153.1 7,204.7 7,310.9 7,346.9 7,453.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,712.7 6,901.0 7,118.3 7,034.1 7,077.7 7,160.3 7,201.1 7,273.4 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,748.7 6,932.0 7,174.4 7,091.8 7,144.4 7,198.8 7,262.6 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 7,265.4 7,636.0 8,079.9 7,933.6 8,034.3 8,124.3 8,227.4 8,332.2 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 7,235.3 7,610.2 8,011.5 7,867.4 7,953.2 8,075.3 8,150.2 8,253.3 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,351.4 7,730.9 8,181.0 8,032.4 8,123.1 8,235.6 8,332.7 8,455.6 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 7,321.3 7,705.0 8,112.6 7,966.3 8,042.0 8,186.6 8,255.5 8,376.7 GNP.................................... 7,270.6 7,637.7 8,060.1 7,919.2 8,013.6 8,103.5 8,204.2 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.3 4.1 Gross domestic purchases................. 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.9 3.7 4.3 3.4 6.1 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.9 6.0 2.0 5.9 GNP...................................... 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.6 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 4.6 5.1 5.8 7.4 5.2 4.6 5.2 5.2 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 4.4 6.3 3.8 5.2 Gross domestic purchases................. 4.5 5.2 5.8 7.9 4.6 5.7 4.8 6.0 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 4.9 5.2 5.3 6.1 3.9 7.4 3.4 6.0 GNP...................................... 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.5 4.9 4.6 5.1 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 .9 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.0 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 .9 1.3 1.4 .0 GNP...................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 .9 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.9 .9 1.3 1.4 -.1 GNP.................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1996 1997 I 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 1996 1997 I 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product............... 7636.0 8079.9 7933.6 8124.3 8227.4 8332.2 6928.4 7188.8 7101.6 7214.0 7280.0 7356.0 Personal consumption expenditures......... 5207.6 5485.8 5405.7 5527.4 5577.8 5659.4 4714.1 4867.5 4818.1 4896.2 4926.1 4994.6 Durable goods........................... 634.5 659.3 658.4 667.3 666.8 692.2 611.1 645.5 637.8 656.1 659.3 687.7 Motor vehicles and parts.............. 261.3 263.4 265.7 268.7 266.3 273.0 231.3 233.1 233.4 238.7 237.3 243.4 Furniture and household equipment..... 252.6 267.4 263.8 269.9 270.6 283.9 269.5 296.4 287.4 301.1 304.9 324.2 Other................................. 120.6 128.5 128.9 128.8 129.9 135.2 113.3 121.4 121.4 121.7 123.1 127.5 Nondurable goods........................ 1534.7 1592.0 1587.4 1600.8 1600.9 1616.1 1432.3 1458.5 1457.8 1465.5 1460.9 1479.6 Food.................................. 756.1 776.4 775.5 779.3 779.4 784.7 689.7 689.7 694.6 689.5 686.6 688.9 Clothing and shoes.................... 264.3 277.3 275.2 280.5 278.7 289.0 267.7 278.0 277.1 281.3 279.6 291.0 Gasoline and oil...................... 122.6 124.6 128.5 123.5 124.7 115.3 114.1 116.0 114.7 116.2 117.0 117.9 Fuel oil and coal..................... 11.6 10.8 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.1 10.6 10.0 9.4 10.4 9.9 8.9 Other................................. 380.1 402.8 397.1 406.5 407.6 418.0 351.2 366.7 363.7 370.0 369.8 375.9 Services................................ 3038.4 3234.5 3159.9 3259.3 3310.0 3351.0 2671.0 2764.1 2723.9 2776.1 2806.4 2830.5 Housing............................... 787.2 826.5 810.5 831.9 842.4 854.1 700.2 713.8 708.3 715.6 719.3 723.7 Household operation................... 315.9 327.8 320.8 328.8 334.9 329.1 289.6 294.5 288.0 295.7 300.1 298.0 Electricity and gas................. 125.3 126.2 124.9 125.2 127.5 117.6 117.8 116.1 113.8 115.7 116.9 111.4 Other household operation........... 190.6 201.6 195.9 203.6 207.4 211.4 171.7 178.2 174.0 179.7 182.9 186.1 Transportation........................ 218.4 236.3 228.9 238.5 244.4 247.1 194.6 202.7 199.3 203.9 206.8 208.6 Medical care.......................... 808.1 854.2 841.0 859.7 866.5 875.6 688.1 711.1 704.4 714.2 716.9 719.2 Other................................. 908.9 989.7 958.8 1000.4 1021.9 1045.1 799.4 842.5 824.3 847.1 864.0 881.5 Gross private domestic investment......... 1116.5 1242.5 1193.6 1250.2 1284.1 1329.8 1069.1 1197.0 1149.2 1204.6 1237.2 1289.2 Fixed investment........................ 1090.7 1174.1 1127.5 1201.3 1206.8 1250.9 1041.7 1123.6 1079.0 1149.3 1154.6 1202.2 Nonresidential........................ 781.4 846.9 811.3 872.0 868.0 897.6 771.7 848.3 808.9 874.5 872.7 908.7 Structures.......................... 215.2 230.2 227.4 232.9 233.9 230.1 188.7 195.4 195.9 196.7 195.5 191.0 Nonresidential buildings, including farm................... 159.8 174.8 174.0 177.5 175.6 174.4 140.0 148.5 150.1 150.1 146.9 144.9 Utilities......................... 33.3 33.1 32.0 33.2 33.6 34.4 29.3 28.1 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.9 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................ 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.2 15.8 15.4 13.9 13.2 13.6 13.4 12.8 12.2 Other structures.................. 6.2 6.4 5.3 5.9 8.9 6.0 5.5 5.5 4.6 5.1 7.5 5.0 Producers' durable equipment........ 566.2 616.7 583.9 639.1 634.2 667.5 586.0 659.0 616.6 685.3 684.8 729.5 Information processing and related equipment........................ 195.1 212.3 202.8 219.5 218.7 231.8 253.1 306.2 281.4 320.5 325.9 358.1 Computers and peripheral equipment...................... 78.7 85.4 81.8 88.1 87.1 94.7 160.8 225.5 195.8 240.5 249.5 296.4 Other........................... 116.3 127.0 121.0 131.3 131.5 137.1 116.3 127.3 121.5 131.5 131.9 137.5 Industrial equipment.............. 127.5 134.8 127.7 137.5 138.9 141.5 117.0 123.1 116.8 125.6 126.6 128.8 Transportation and related equipment........................ 134.5 150.0 137.7 159.9 155.3 165.9 125.0 138.3 127.5 146.8 143.1 153.1 Other............................. 109.1 119.5 115.7 122.2 121.3 128.3 100.8 109.6 106.1 112.1 111.0 117.1 Residential........................... 309.2 327.2 316.2 329.3 338.8 353.2 272.1 279.5 273.3 280.1 286.3 298.2 Structures.......................... 301.7 319.3 308.3 321.4 330.9 345.0 265.0 272.0 265.9 272.6 278.7 290.3 Single family structures.......... 159.1 163.6 161.0 163.1 167.9 175.8 136.6 136.7 136.2 135.7 138.4 145.3 Multifamily structures............ 20.3 22.9 21.9 22.3 24.2 25.5 18.6 20.2 19.6 19.6 21.1 22.2 Other............................. 122.3 132.8 125.3 135.9 138.8 143.7 110.2 115.7 110.5 117.9 119.9 123.5 Producers' durable equipment........ 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.9 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.8 Change in business inventories.......... 25.9 68.4 66.1 48.9 77.2 79.0 25.0 65.7 63.7 47.5 74.0 77.0 Farm.................................. 2.9 6.7 3.9 8.1 8.5 8.4 2.6 8.0 5.3 9.5 9.8 10.3 Nonfarm............................... 23.0 61.7 62.2 40.9 68.7 70.6 22.5 57.8 58.3 38.3 64.5 67.0 Manufacturing....................... 10.6 22.9 22.3 15.8 22.7 31.3 9.9 21.5 20.9 14.8 21.5 29.8 Durable goods..................... 10.2 13.2 12.9 10.3 10.6 17.2 9.7 12.6 12.3 9.9 10.2 16.6 Nondurable goods.................. .4 9.7 9.3 5.5 12.1 14.1 .4 8.9 8.5 5.0 11.2 13.1 Wholesale trade..................... 3.3 21.8 24.3 15.8 21.0 20.7 4.0 20.6 22.9 14.9 19.7 19.8 Durable goods..................... 2.5 12.3 15.4 4.0 6.4 17.9 2.4 11.9 14.8 3.8 6.2 17.4 Nondurable goods.................. .8 9.4 8.9 11.8 14.6 2.8 1.6 8.6 8.1 10.8 13.2 2.7 Retail trade........................ 4.1 7.5 .6 3.0 18.1 10.3 4.0 7.0 .6 2.8 17.0 9.8 Durable goods..................... 1.9 5.5 1.4 1.7 16.8 -.3 1.7 5.0 1.2 1.5 15.4 -.3 Motor vehicle dealers........... -1.6 1.0 -2.9 -.6 11.7 -1.0 -1.4 .9 -2.5 -.6 10.6 -.9 Other........................... 3.5 4.5 4.2 2.3 5.1 .7 3.3 4.2 3.9 2.1 4.8 .6 Nondurable goods.................. 2.3 1.9 -.8 1.3 1.3 10.6 2.3 1.9 -.7 1.3 1.2 10.4 Other............................... 5.0 9.5 15.2 6.3 6.9 8.3 4.5 8.7 13.7 5.7 6.3 7.8 Net exports of goods and services......... -94.8 -101.1 -98.8 -111.3 -105.3 -123.4 -114.4 -146.5 -126.3 -164.1 -159.1 -199.7 Exports................................. 870.9 957.1 922.2 965.8 980.0 959.8 857.0 962.7 922.7 973.0 992.7 984.1 Goods................................. 617.5 686.3 656.2 691.1 707.9 685.2 628.4 725.0 686.2 731.8 756.3 744.6 Agricultural products............... 61.5 58.3 57.3 58.1 61.4 55.7 48.6 49.3 47.7 49.5 53.0 50.3 Nonagricultural products............ 556.0 628.0 598.9 632.9 646.5 629.5 581.3 679.3 641.6 686.1 706.7 698.1 Services.............................. 253.3 270.8 266.0 274.8 272.1 274.6 229.9 241.7 238.9 245.0 241.8 244.1 Imports................................. 965.7 1058.1 1021.0 1077.1 1085.4 1083.1 971.5 1109.2 1048.9 1137.1 1151.8 1183.8 Goods................................. 809.0 888.5 855.8 905.6 912.6 905.2 823.1 947.5 891.3 972.7 987.6 1011.8 Petroleum and products.............. 72.7 71.8 76.7 70.4 69.2 55.5 63.8 66.7 62.2 69.2 67.5 68.1 Nonpetroleum products............... 736.3 816.7 779.1 835.2 843.5 849.8 757.8 881.1 829.7 903.7 920.5 944.2 Services.............................. 156.7 169.6 165.2 171.6 172.7 177.9 149.0 163.0 158.4 165.8 165.9 173.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... 1406.7 1452.7 1433.1 1457.9 1470.9 1466.4 1257.9 1269.6 1260.5 1273.4 1274.4 1268.1 Federal................................. 520.0 523.8 516.1 525.7 527.3 516.8 464.2 457.0 452.8 458.8 456.1 446.4 National defense...................... 352.8 350.3 343.3 352.1 355.2 340.6 317.8 308.6 303.9 310.3 311.1 297.2 Consumption expenditures............ 305.7 310.9 306.4 311.6 314.4 302.6 275.5 272.9 270.3 273.6 273.9 262.6 Gross investment.................... 47.0 39.4 37.0 40.5 40.8 37.9 42.3 35.7 33.5 36.7 37.2 34.6 Nondefense............................ 167.3 173.5 172.8 173.6 172.0 176.3 146.1 147.9 148.5 148.0 144.8 148.6 Consumption expenditures............ 145.7 152.9 151.7 153.1 154.0 155.5 125.3 127.6 127.7 127.8 126.6 128.0 Gross investment.................... 21.5 20.6 21.1 20.5 18.0 20.7 21.0 20.3 20.8 20.3 17.8 20.7 State and local......................... 886.7 928.9 917.0 932.3 943.6 949.6 793.7 812.7 807.7 814.7 818.3 821.9 Consumption expenditures............ 730.9 762.9 751.7 766.1 776.4 782.5 653.6 666.6 661.1 668.6 672.5 676.3 Gross investment.................... 155.7 166.0 165.2 166.2 167.2 167.1 140.1 146.1 146.6 146.1 145.8 145.6 Residual.................................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -44.3 -80.5 -62.7 -87.5 -94.4 -127.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.................... 7636.0 8079.9 7933.6 8124.3 8227.4 8332.2 6928.4 7188.8 7101.6 7214.0 7280.0 7356.0 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world........................ 234.3 262.2 248.2 269.4 269.8 ..... 214.2 236.3 224.6 242.5 242.0 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world........................ 232.6 282.0 262.5 290.1 293.1 ..... 210.2 250.1 234.0 256.9 258.7 ..... Equals: Gross national product............ 7637.7 8060.1 7919.2 8103.5 8204.2 ..... 6932.0 7174.4 7091.8 7198.8 7262.6 ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income........................... 6495.2 6873.9 6746.2 6906.9 7013.5 7126.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Wage and salary disbursements........... 3632.5 3877.4 3791.5 3896.1 3980.4 4065.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Other labor income...................... 407.6 416.6 412.3 417.7 421.4 425.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 520.3 544.5 534.6 547.2 552.5 558.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Farm.................................. 37.2 40.7 40.2 40.9 38.2 33.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................... 483.1 503.8 494.4 506.3 514.3 524.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................. 146.3 147.9 149.0 148.0 145.7 142.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal dividend income................ 291.2 321.5 312.5 324.5 330.7 336.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal interest income................ 735.7 768.6 757.2 772.6 778.4 783.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Transfer payments to persons............ 1068.0 1121.1 1107.2 1125.7 1134.8 1154.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.............................. 306.3 323.7 318.2 324.8 330.4 338.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.... 886.9 988.7 955.7 998.0 1022.1 1032.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Disposable personal income........ 5608.3 5885.2 5790.5 5908.9 5991.4 6094.5 5076.9 5221.9 5161.1 5234.1 5291.4 5378.7 Less: Personal outlays.................... 5368.8 5658.5 5574.6 5700.8 5755.6 5837.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Personal saving................... 239.6 226.7 215.9 208.2 235.8 257.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............... 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 107.97 110.95 115.12 113.73 114.66 115.53 116.58 117.80 Chain-type price index......... 107.76 110.22 112.45 111.78 112.27 112.67 113.07 113.33 Implicit price deflator........ 107.76 110.21 112.40 111.71 112.22 112.62 113.01 113.27 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 108.90 111.71 115.35 114.18 114.45 116.03 116.74 118.36 Chain-type price index................... 107.89 110.47 112.71 112.21 112.49 112.91 113.24 113.32 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 119.46 125.09 132.14 130.55 128.75 134.31 134.96 140.76 Chain-type price index................. 104.27 103.83 102.17 103.27 102.50 101.74 101.18 100.70 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.86 108.36 110.34 110.29 109.70 110.87 110.52 111.93 Chain-type price index................. 104.48 107.15 109.16 108.90 108.89 109.24 109.59 109.24 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.89 110.86 114.72 113.05 114.13 115.22 116.48 117.48 Chain-type price index................. 110.53 113.76 117.02 116.02 116.70 117.42 117.96 118.40 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.81 132.97 143.42 137.73 141.86 146.70 147.37 153.46 Chain-type price index................... 104.78 104.70 104.52 104.52 104.47 104.55 104.56 104.07 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 126.65 138.33 152.06 145.00 150.03 156.75 156.43 162.88 Chain-type price index................. 102.33 101.26 99.87 100.31 99.93 99.73 99.49 98.80 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 113.94 120.64 123.91 121.17 123.36 124.19 126.93 132.19 Chain-type price index................. 110.93 113.64 117.06 115.68 116.65 117.57 118.33 118.48 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 123.74 134.03 150.56 144.30 150.53 152.17 155.25 153.91 Chain-type price index................... 103.44 101.61 99.38 99.90 99.72 99.21 98.68 97.48 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 133.05 145.22 165.82 156.80 164.30 169.98 172.18 176.97 Chain-type price index................... 101.62 99.41 95.52 97.42 95.52 94.81 94.31 91.57 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.06 99.54 100.46 99.74 100.50 100.77 100.84 100.35 Chain-type price index................... 108.28 111.83 114.47 113.74 114.14 114.54 115.46 115.69 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 89.08 87.92 86.55 85.76 87.14 86.89 86.39 84.54 Chain-type price index................. 108.34 112.03 114.74 114.10 114.46 114.71 115.71 115.91 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.23 107.88 110.46 109.78 110.10 110.73 111.22 111.70 Chain-type price index................. 108.24 111.71 114.31 113.54 113.95 114.44 115.32 115.56 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.62 110.64 114.12 112.77 113.47 114.80 115.45 116.61 Chain-type price index................. 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.18 113.48 Implicit price deflator................ 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.18 113.47 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 108.98 112.17 116.75 115.09 116.14 117.38 118.36 120.13 Chain-type price index................. 107.52 109.86 111.76 111.32 111.55 111.90 112.28 112.27 Implicit price deflator................ 107.52 109.85 111.69 111.24 111.48 111.83 112.21 112.19 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.88 110.81 114.69 113.37 114.21 115.08 116.10 ..... Chain-type price index................. 107.74 110.19 112.40 111.73 112.22 112.62 113.02 ..... Implicit price deflator................ 107.73 110.18 112.35 111.67 112.17 112.57 112.96 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.0 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 2.5 5.7 Durable goods........................ 3.8 4.3 11.0 -3.0 3.9 9.3 2.0 4.8 9.7 -1.9 3.5 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.9 18.4 Nondurable goods..................... 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.7 .9 .7 .7 1.7 2.6 .6 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.2 5.2 Services............................. 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.7 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 3.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment 11.9 4.2 7.0 7.6 -.7 3.5 5.9 10.7 14.4 10.1 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.4 1.8 17.6 Nonresidential....................... 9.9 7.7 12.6 14.2 5.7 1.6 4.9 11.7 13.0 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -.8 17.6 Structures......................... 21.1 -1.1 2.3 9.5 4.3 .7 -5.8 8.2 7.9 10.0 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -2.3 -8.9 Producers' durable equipment....... 5.9 11.4 16.9 16.1 6.2 2.0 9.4 13.1 14.9 19.1 2.6 6.7 23.0 24.1 -.3 28.8 Residential.......................... 16.6 -3.1 -5.0 -7.0 -15.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 17.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.1 17.6 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... 17.7 10.6 14.7 7.2 9.3 13.5 11.5 1.7 9.6 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 4.4 8.3 -3.4 Imports of goods and services.......... 19.0 13.1 9.9 10.0 7.7 2.3 2.4 13.1 14.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.6 5.3 11.6 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .4 8.2 -3.8 .6 -.1 -.7 -5.4 1.8 7.2 -1.1 .1 -.4 3.1 1.1 .3 -2.0 Federal.............................. -4.9 13.3 -11.3 -1.1 -4.5 -1.3 -16.4 7.5 8.8 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.3 -8.3 National defense................... 1.0 13.8 -18.6 -1.1 -1.6 -4.0 -15.9 6.1 11.0 -4.6 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.0 -16.7 Nondefense......................... -16.6 12.2 6.5 -.9 -10.3 4.8 -17.5 10.5 4.3 -3.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 11.0 State and local...................... 4.0 5.1 1.2 1.7 2.6 -.4 1.9 -1.4 6.3 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.7 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 5.2 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.3 4.1 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 2.1 2.5 .4 2.2 3.6 .6 3.8 1.7 3.8 Durable goods........................ .3 .3 .9 -.3 .3 .7 .2 .4 .8 -.2 .3 1.1 -.5 1.4 .2 1.4 Nondurable goods..................... .4 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .1 .4 .9 -.4 .8 -.2 1.0 Services............................. 1.3 .8 .7 .9 1.4 .9 .9 1.4 1.2 .4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment 1.5 .6 .9 1.0 -.1 .5 .8 1.4 1.9 1.4 .4 .6 1.7 2.0 .3 2.4 Nonresidential....................... .9 .7 1.1 1.3 .6 .2 .5 1.1 1.3 1.6 .6 .4 1.4 1.9 -.1 1.7 Structures......................... .5 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 -.1 -.3 Producers' durable equipment....... .4 .7 1.1 1.0 .4 .1 .6 .9 1.0 1.3 .2 .5 1.6 1.7 .0 2.0 Residential.......................... .6 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.7 .3 .3 .3 .7 -.2 -.2 .1 .3 .1 .4 .7 Change in business inventories......... 1.4 -1.5 .9 -.8 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.8 .7 .8 -.2 1.8 .8 -1.6 1.4 .2 Exports of goods and services.......... 1.7 1.0 1.4 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 .2 1.1 .2 2.7 1.1 2.0 .5 1.0 -.4 Imports of goods and services.......... -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.8 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 -.7 -1.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .1 1.5 -.7 .1 .0 -.1 -1.0 .3 1.3 -.2 .0 -.1 .6 .2 .1 -.4 Federal.............................. -.4 .9 -.9 -.1 -.3 -.1 -1.2 .5 .6 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.1 -.1 -.5 National defense................... .0 .7 -1.0 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.8 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.6 .3 .1 .0 -.8 Nondefense......................... -.4 .3 .1 .0 -.3 .1 -.4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .1 -.1 -.2 .2 State and local...................... .5 .6 .1 .2 .3 .0 .2 -.2 .7 .1 .4 .3 .1 .3 .2 .2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.2 4.0 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.8 3.6 3.7 Durable goods........................ 7.0 6.0 6.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.0 5.0 6.4 3.6 3.9 6.2 2.3 7.2 6.8 7.8 Nondurable goods..................... 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 2.2 1.4 1.5 Services............................. 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 Gross private domestic fixed investment 9.9 9.3 6.6 7.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 8.6 10.2 9.5 7.7 7.3 8.3 8.0 11.4 Nonresidential....................... 7.8 8.5 7.6 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.9 7.7 11.4 11.7 9.8 10.2 10.8 9.0 12.3 Structures......................... 2.4 1.3 1.1 7.6 3.7 4.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 4.9 10.3 7.6 4.3 3.5 -.7 -2.5 Producers' durable equipment....... 10.0 11.5 10.2 12.5 12.6 10.1 8.3 7.6 9.7 14.1 12.2 10.6 12.5 13.7 12.9 18.3 Residential.......................... 15.0 11.2 4.2 .0 -7.8 -5.1 -1.9 1.9 10.7 7.3 3.9 2.7 .4 2.2 5.6 9.1 Exports of goods and services.......... 6.7 11.7 10.0 12.5 10.4 11.1 10.3 8.9 9.0 6.1 9.3 11.4 13.6 14.3 10.2 6.7 Imports of goods and services.......... 11.8 14.2 12.3 13.0 10.2 7.5 5.6 6.3 7.8 10.6 11.8 12.9 14.5 14.8 14.4 12.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.8 1.4 .1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 .6 .5 2.0 1.4 .4 .9 1.0 .6 Federal.............................. -5.3 -1.0 -3.9 -1.4 -1.3 -4.6 -6.0 -4.1 -.9 -1.6 1.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.5 -.7 -1.4 National defense................... -5.8 -1.2 -6.0 -1.9 -2.6 -6.6 -5.9 -4.2 -1.3 -1.4 1.1 -3.5 -4.3 -2.8 -.8 -2.2 Nondefense......................... -4.0 -.6 .9 -.3 1.5 -.2 -6.4 -3.8 -.1 -2.1 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.4 -.6 .1 State and local...................... 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.3 1.4 .7 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.7 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 3.7 3.1 3.4 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 .9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.6 3.3 Durable goods........................ -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 4.0 4.7 5.6 Nondurable goods..................... .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 Services............................. 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.1 8.3 7.9 Nonresidential....................... -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.0 9.2 9.9 Structures......................... -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.8 3.6 Producers' durable equipment....... -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.9 12.5 Residential.......................... -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 5.9 2.7 Exports of goods and services.......... -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.1 8.3 12.3 Imports of goods and services.......... -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.9 9.1 14.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .0 .5 .9 Federal.............................. 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 National defense................... 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.3 -1.5 -2.9 Nondefense......................... -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.4 -.9 1.2 State and local...................... -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.6 2.4 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 Gross domestic purchases price index. 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current-dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys. The real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures based on a "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1996), a variant of the standard quarterly formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. For this period, BEA uses weights from two adjacent quarters to calculate the change from the preceding quarter. BEA also publishes a second measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator." The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. Its values are very similar to those of the "chain-type" price index. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates. Reference: "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey of Current Business.