FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EDT, THURSDAY, MAY 28, 1998 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 98-14 Kenneth A. Petrick: 606-9738 (Profits) Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 1998 (PRELIMINARY) CORPORATE PROFITS: FIRST QUARTER 1998 (PRELIMINARY) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 1998, according to preliminary estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent. Real GDP increased $85.6 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $66.0 billion in the fourth. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 4.2 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods and services, producers' durable equipment (PDE), inventory investment, and residential structures. The contributions of these components were partially offset by an increase in imports of goods and services, and decreases in government spending and in exports of goods and services. The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an acceleration in real PCE, a sharp upturn in PDE, and an acceleration in residential structures. The acceleration in GDP was moderated by an acceleration in imports, a downturn in exports, a downturn in government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential structures than in the fourth quarter. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, was unchanged in the first quarter; the index increased 1.4 percent in the fourth. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 6.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the fourth. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 17.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.3 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 27.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 16.1 percent, compared with an increase of 9.1 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 8.3 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 17.7 percent, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 9.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 18.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.0 percent. Nondefense increased 10.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 8.6 percent. Real state and local government increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. The real change in business inventories added 1.4 percentage points to the first-quarter change in real GDP, after also adding 1.4 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $100.7 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $74.0 billion in the fourth quarter and an increase of $47.5 billion in the third. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 7.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the fourth. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.8 percent, or $117.5 billion, in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent, or $103.1 billion. Revisions The preliminary estimate of the first-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.6 percentage point, or $9.6 billion, higher than the advance estimate issued last month. The upward revision to the percentage change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to nonfarm change in business inventories ($24.8 billion) that more than offset an upward revision to imports ($16.0 billion). The preliminary estimate of the first-quarter price index for gross domestic purchases is unchanged, the same as in the advance estimate. Advance Preliminary (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP............................... 4.2 4.8 Current-dollar GDP..................... 5.2 5.8 Gross domestic purchases price index... .0 .0 Corporate Profits Profits from current production (profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $4.4 billion in the first quarter, according to the preliminary estimates. In the fourth quarter, profits decreased $9.2 billion. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $11.2 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $4.5 billion in the fourth. 1997 1998 II III IV I (Percent change from preceding quarter at quarterly rate) Corporate profits from current production.. 2.0 4.0 -1.1 0.5 Profits before tax......................... 1.6 4.7 -2.1 -2.6 Profits after tax.......................... 1.7 4.2 -2.3 -2.2 Current-production cash flow............... 1.7 2.6 -.6 1.6 Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $1.0 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $5.0 billion in the fourth. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $0.7 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $10.7 billion in the fourth. In the first quarter, real gross corporate product increased, and profits per unit of real product decreased. The decrease in unit profits reflected increases in the unit labor costs corporations incurred. The foreign component of profits increased $2.7 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $3.6 billion in the fourth. This component measures receipts by U.S. residents of dividends and reinvested earnings from foreign affiliates of U.S. corporations, less corresponding payments to foreign residents by U.S. affiliates of foreign corporations. The first-quarter increase was accounted for by an increase in receipts and a decrease in payments. Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. According to this measure, among nonfinancial corporations there were decreases in manufacturing and in "other" nonmanufacturing and increases in retail trade, in wholesale trade, and in the transportation and public utilities group. Profits before tax decreased $18.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $16.1 billion in the fourth. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments; these adjustments convert depreciation and inventories reported by business to the measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment increased $2.3 billion in the first quarter (from $71.6 billion to $73.9 billion), compared with an increase of $1.3 billion in the fourth. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $21.0 billion (from $9.2 billion to $30.2 billion), compared with an increase of $5.6 billion. Profits tax liability decreased $8.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $4.6 billion in the fourth. Profits after tax decreased $10.7 billion, compared with a decrease of $11.5 billion. Dividends increased $6.6 billion, compared with an increase of $6.5 billion; undistributed profits decreased $17.3 billion, compared with a decrease of $18.0 billion. BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $69.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $35.00 domestic, $43.75 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. * * * Next release -- June 25, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 1998 (Final) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 1998 (Revised) Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 131.4 186.3 260.4 84.2 58.0 54.4 66.0 85.6 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 109.3 118.8 153.4 61.7 11.3 66.8 29.9 73.4 Durable goods............................ 22.4 27.5 34.4 20.7 -8.8 27.1 3.2 24.8 Nondurable goods......................... 22.7 19.7 26.2 16.6 -7.8 15.5 -4.6 23.3 Services................................. 64.1 71.4 93.1 25.7 25.9 26.3 30.3 27.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 46.6 79.6 81.9 10.3 32.4 37.9 5.3 45.9 Nonresidential........................... 58.1 65.2 76.6 8.1 28.1 37.5 -1.8 35.3 Structures............................. 7.4 8.8 6.7 -1.0 -2.4 3.2 -1.2 -3.7 Producers' durable equipment........... 51.5 57.7 73.0 9.9 32.7 36.0 -.5 42.9 Residential.............................. -10.0 15.1 7.4 2.2 4.9 1.9 6.2 10.9 Change in business inventories............. -33.3 -2.3 40.7 30.8 13.9 -30.1 26.5 26.7 Net exports of goods and services.......... 5.8 -15.6 -32.1 -20.7 -10.3 -27.5 5.0 -55.6 Exports.................................. 78.8 65.8 105.7 21.6 39.8 10.5 19.7 -7.7 Imports.................................. 73.1 81.4 137.7 42.3 50.2 38.0 14.7 48.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -.4 6.0 11.7 -1.3 9.6 3.3 1.0 -9.8 Federal.................................. -16.3 -6.1 -7.2 -6.8 7.3 -1.3 -2.7 -11.6 National defense....................... -14.3 -4.8 -9.2 -9.7 5.5 .9 .8 -15.5 Nondefense............................. -2.0 -1.4 1.8 2.8 1.7 -2.2 -3.2 3.5 State and local.......................... 15.9 12.1 19.0 5.4 2.4 4.6 3.6 1.9 Residual................................... 1.3 -1.9 -.7 1.5 .4 -1.3 -.1 -1.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.8 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.6 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 2.5 6.1 Durable goods............................ 4.0 4.7 5.6 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.9 15.9 Nondurable goods......................... 1.6 1.4 1.8 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.2 6.5 Services................................. 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.0 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 5.1 8.3 7.9 3.9 12.6 14.4 1.8 16.9 Nonresidential........................... 9.0 9.2 9.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -.8 17.2 Structures............................. 4.3 4.8 3.6 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -2.3 -7.4 Producers' durable equipment........... 10.8 10.9 12.5 6.7 23.0 24.1 -.3 27.5 Residential.............................. -3.8 5.9 2.7 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.1 16.1 Exports of goods and services.............. 11.1 8.3 12.3 9.9 18.4 4.4 8.3 -3.0 Imports of goods and services.............. 8.9 9.1 14.2 17.9 20.5 14.6 5.3 17.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .0 .5 .9 -.4 3.1 1.1 .3 -3.0 Federal.................................. -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.3 -9.8 National defense....................... -4.3 -1.5 -2.9 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.0 -18.4 Nondefense............................. -1.4 -.9 1.2 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 10.1 State and local.......................... 2.1 1.6 2.4 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 .9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 2.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -.7 -2.0 -2.1 -4.9 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 2.2 -2.2 -3.9 -5.3 -7.6 -3.0 -2.1 -11.3 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 .4 Durable goods............................ 1.0 -.4 -1.6 -.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.8 Nondurable goods......................... 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.4 .0 1.3 1.3 -1.3 Services................................. 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.7 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.3 -.1 -.2 -.9 -.2 .3 .0 -2.0 Nonresidential........................... .4 -1.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -.8 -1.0 -3.0 Structures............................. 4.2 2.3 3.3 2.8 3.9 4.2 4.1 2.6 Producers' durable equipment........... -1.0 -2.3 -3.1 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 -2.8 -4.9 Residential.............................. 3.6 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.4 3.2 2.6 .7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 3.3 3.3 2.4 3.5 1.4 1.4 3.3 1.0 Federal.................................. 3.3 3.4 2.4 4.9 1.3 .9 3.5 1.2 National defense....................... 3.1 3.9 2.4 4.3 1.1 .6 2.6 2.1 Nondefense............................. 3.9 2.3 2.5 6.1 1.5 1.5 5.5 -.5 State and local.......................... 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 .8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. r Revised Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,742.1 6,928.4 7,188.8 7,101.6 7,159.6 7,214.0 7,280.0 7,365.6 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 791.2 857.0 962.7 922.7 962.5 973.0 992.7 985.0 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 890.1 971.5 1,109.2 1,048.9 1,099.1 1,137.1 1,151.8 1,199.8 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,837.5 7,037.7 7,324.6 7,220.9 7,286.9 7,364.6 7,426.1 7,558.8 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,595.3 4,714.1 4,867.5 4,818.1 4,829.4 4,896.2 4,926.1 4,999.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 962.1 1,041.7 1,123.6 1,079.0 1,111.4 1,149.3 1,154.6 1,200.5 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 27.3 25.0 65.7 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 100.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,251.9 1,257.9 1,269.6 1,260.5 1,270.1 1,273.4 1,274.4 1,264.6 Less: Change in business inventories....... 27.3 25.0 65.7 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 100.7 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,808.1 7,010.2 7,253.9 7,153.1 7,204.7 7,310.9 7,346.9 7,453.4 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,712.7 6,901.0 7,118.3 7,034.1 7,077.7 7,160.3 7,201.1 7,260.9 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,748.7 6,932.0 7,174.4 7,091.8 7,144.4 7,198.8 7,262.6 7,348.7 Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 7,265.4 7,636.0 8,079.9 7,933.6 8,034.3 8,124.3 8,227.4 8,344.9 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 7,235.3 7,610.2 8,011.5 7,867.4 7,953.2 8,075.3 8,150.2 8,241.3 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,351.4 7,730.9 8,181.0 8,032.4 8,123.1 8,235.6 8,332.7 8,481.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 7,321.3 7,705.0 8,112.6 7,966.3 8,042.0 8,186.6 8,255.5 8,378.2 GNP.................................... 7,270.6 7,637.7 8,060.1 7,919.2 8,013.6 8,103.5 8,204.2 8,322.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.8 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.3 3.4 Gross domestic purchases................. 1.9 2.9 4.1 5.9 3.7 4.3 3.4 7.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.9 6.0 2.0 5.9 GNP...................................... 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.6 4.8 Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 4.6 5.1 5.8 7.4 5.2 4.6 5.2 5.8 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 4.4 6.3 3.8 4.5 Gross domestic purchases................. 4.5 5.2 5.8 7.9 4.6 5.7 4.8 7.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 4.9 5.2 5.3 6.1 3.9 7.4 3.4 6.1 GNP...................................... 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.5 4.9 4.6 5.1 5.9 Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 .9 1.3 1.4 .1 GNP...................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.9 .9 1.3 1.4 .0 GNP.................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. r Revised Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1996 1997 I 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r 1996 1997 I 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product............... 7636.0 8079.9 7933.6 8124.3 8227.4 8344.9 6928.4 7188.8 7101.6 7214.0 7280.0 7365.6 Personal consumption expenditures......... 5207.6 5485.8 5405.7 5527.4 5577.8 5666.5 4714.1 4867.5 4818.1 4896.2 4926.1 4999.5 Durable goods........................... 634.5 659.3 658.4 667.3 666.8 688.8 611.1 645.5 637.8 656.1 659.3 684.1 Motor vehicles and parts.............. 261.3 263.4 265.7 268.7 266.3 271.5 231.3 233.1 233.4 238.7 237.3 241.9 Furniture and household equipment..... 252.6 267.4 263.8 269.9 270.6 284.2 269.5 296.4 287.4 301.1 304.9 324.5 Other................................. 120.6 128.5 128.9 128.8 129.9 133.1 113.3 121.4 121.4 121.7 123.1 125.5 Nondurable goods........................ 1534.7 1592.0 1587.4 1600.8 1600.9 1621.2 1432.3 1458.5 1457.8 1465.5 1460.9 1484.2 Food.................................. 756.1 776.4 775.5 779.3 779.4 786.7 689.7 689.7 694.6 689.5 686.6 690.7 Clothing and shoes.................... 264.3 277.3 275.2 280.5 278.7 289.7 267.7 278.0 277.1 281.3 279.6 291.6 Gasoline and oil...................... 122.6 124.6 128.5 123.5 124.7 115.5 114.1 116.0 114.7 116.2 117.0 118.1 Fuel oil and coal..................... 11.6 10.8 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.3 10.6 10.0 9.4 10.4 9.9 9.1 Other................................. 380.1 402.8 397.1 406.5 407.6 420.0 351.2 366.7 363.7 370.0 369.8 377.6 Services................................ 3038.4 3234.5 3159.9 3259.3 3310.0 3356.5 2671.0 2764.1 2723.9 2776.1 2806.4 2834.0 Housing............................... 787.2 826.5 810.5 831.9 842.4 853.9 700.2 713.8 708.3 715.6 719.3 723.4 Household operation................... 315.9 327.8 320.8 328.8 334.9 328.1 289.6 294.5 288.0 295.7 300.1 297.1 Electricity and gas................. 125.3 126.2 124.9 125.2 127.5 117.7 117.8 116.1 113.8 115.7 116.9 111.4 Other household operation........... 190.6 201.6 195.9 203.6 207.4 210.4 171.7 178.2 174.0 179.7 182.9 185.1 Transportation........................ 218.4 236.3 228.9 238.5 244.4 247.9 194.6 202.7 199.3 203.9 206.8 209.3 Medical care.......................... 808.1 854.2 841.0 859.7 866.5 880.2 688.1 711.1 704.4 714.2 716.9 722.0 Other................................. 908.9 989.7 958.8 1000.4 1021.9 1046.4 799.4 842.5 824.3 847.1 864.0 882.4 Gross private domestic investment......... 1116.5 1242.5 1193.6 1250.2 1284.1 1352.1 1069.1 1197.0 1149.2 1204.6 1237.2 1311.6 Fixed investment........................ 1090.7 1174.1 1127.5 1201.3 1206.8 1248.6 1041.7 1123.6 1079.0 1149.3 1154.6 1200.5 Nonresidential........................ 781.4 846.9 811.3 872.0 868.0 896.3 771.7 848.3 808.9 874.5 872.7 908.0 Structures.......................... 215.2 230.2 227.4 232.9 233.9 230.9 188.7 195.4 195.9 196.7 195.5 191.8 Nonresidential buildings, including farm................... 159.8 174.8 174.0 177.5 175.6 174.2 140.0 148.5 150.1 150.1 146.9 144.9 Utilities......................... 33.3 33.1 32.0 33.2 33.6 34.9 29.3 28.1 27.5 28.0 28.2 29.2 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................ 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.2 15.8 15.8 13.9 13.2 13.6 13.4 12.8 12.6 Other structures.................. 6.2 6.4 5.3 5.9 8.9 6.0 5.5 5.5 4.6 5.1 7.5 5.0 Producers' durable equipment........ 566.2 616.7 583.9 639.1 634.2 665.4 586.0 659.0 616.6 685.3 684.8 727.7 Information processing and related equipment........................ 195.1 212.3 202.8 219.5 218.7 231.5 253.1 306.2 281.4 320.5 325.9 357.9 Computers and peripheral equipment...................... 78.7 85.4 81.8 88.1 87.1 95.9 160.8 225.5 195.8 240.5 249.5 299.8 Other........................... 116.3 127.0 121.0 131.3 131.5 135.6 116.3 127.3 121.5 131.5 131.9 136.2 Industrial equipment.............. 127.5 134.8 127.7 137.5 138.9 142.0 117.0 123.1 116.8 125.6 126.6 129.4 Transportation and related equipment........................ 134.5 150.0 137.7 159.9 155.3 163.7 125.0 138.3 127.5 146.8 143.1 151.1 Other............................. 109.1 119.5 115.7 122.2 121.3 128.1 100.8 109.6 106.1 112.1 111.0 117.0 Residential........................... 309.2 327.2 316.2 329.3 338.8 352.3 272.1 279.5 273.3 280.1 286.3 297.2 Structures.......................... 301.7 319.3 308.3 321.4 330.9 344.1 265.0 272.0 265.9 272.6 278.7 289.4 Single family structures.......... 159.1 163.6 161.0 163.1 167.9 175.9 136.6 136.7 136.2 135.7 138.4 145.5 Multifamily structures............ 20.3 22.9 21.9 22.3 24.2 25.1 18.6 20.2 19.6 19.6 21.1 21.9 Other............................. 122.3 132.8 125.3 135.9 138.8 143.1 110.2 115.7 110.5 117.9 119.9 122.5 Producers' durable equipment........ 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.9 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.8 Change in business inventories.......... 25.9 68.4 66.1 48.9 77.2 103.5 25.0 65.7 63.7 47.5 74.0 100.7 Farm.................................. 2.9 6.7 3.9 8.1 8.5 7.1 2.6 8.0 5.3 9.5 9.8 8.9 Nonfarm............................... 23.0 61.7 62.2 40.9 68.7 96.5 22.5 57.8 58.3 38.3 64.5 91.8 Manufacturing....................... 10.6 22.9 22.3 15.8 22.7 40.1 9.9 21.5 20.9 14.8 21.5 38.3 Durable goods..................... 10.2 13.2 12.9 10.3 10.6 23.7 9.7 12.6 12.3 9.9 10.2 22.8 Nondurable goods.................. .4 9.7 9.3 5.5 12.1 16.4 .4 8.9 8.5 5.0 11.2 15.4 Wholesale trade..................... 3.3 21.8 24.3 15.8 21.0 30.5 4.0 20.6 22.9 14.9 19.7 29.3 Durable goods..................... 2.5 12.3 15.4 4.0 6.4 24.1 2.4 11.9 14.8 3.8 6.2 23.5 Nondurable goods.................. .8 9.4 8.9 11.8 14.6 6.3 1.6 8.6 8.1 10.8 13.2 6.0 Retail trade........................ 4.1 7.5 .6 3.0 18.1 17.2 4.0 7.0 .6 2.8 17.0 16.3 Durable goods..................... 1.9 5.5 1.4 1.7 16.8 .3 1.7 5.0 1.2 1.5 15.4 .3 Motor vehicle dealers........... -1.6 1.0 -2.9 -.6 11.7 -5.8 -1.4 .9 -2.5 -.6 10.6 -5.2 Other........................... 3.5 4.5 4.2 2.3 5.1 6.1 3.3 4.2 3.9 2.1 4.8 5.7 Nondurable goods.................. 2.3 1.9 -.8 1.3 1.3 16.9 2.3 1.9 -.7 1.3 1.2 16.5 Other............................... 5.0 9.5 15.2 6.3 6.9 8.7 4.5 8.7 13.7 5.7 6.3 8.1 Net exports of goods and services......... -94.8 -101.1 -98.8 -111.3 -105.3 -136.8 -114.4 -146.5 -126.3 -164.1 -159.1 -214.7 Exports................................. 870.9 957.1 922.2 965.8 980.0 960.4 857.0 962.7 922.7 973.0 992.7 985.0 Goods................................. 617.5 686.3 656.2 691.1 707.9 686.5 628.4 725.0 686.2 731.8 756.3 745.8 Agricultural products............... 61.5 58.3 57.3 58.1 61.4 55.2 48.6 49.3 47.7 49.5 53.0 49.8 Nonagricultural products............ 556.0 628.0 598.9 632.9 646.5 631.4 581.3 679.3 641.6 686.1 706.7 699.9 Services.............................. 253.3 270.8 266.0 274.8 272.1 273.8 229.9 241.7 238.9 245.0 241.8 243.8 Imports................................. 965.7 1058.1 1021.0 1077.1 1085.4 1097.2 971.5 1109.2 1048.9 1137.1 1151.8 1199.8 Goods................................. 809.0 888.5 855.8 905.6 912.6 919.1 823.1 947.5 891.3 972.7 987.6 1027.8 Petroleum and products.............. 72.7 71.8 76.7 70.4 69.2 55.0 63.8 66.7 62.2 69.2 67.5 68.4 Nonpetroleum products............... 736.3 816.7 779.1 835.2 843.5 864.1 757.8 881.1 829.7 903.7 920.5 959.9 Services.............................. 156.7 169.6 165.2 171.6 172.7 178.1 149.0 163.0 158.4 165.8 165.9 173.6 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... 1406.7 1452.7 1433.1 1457.9 1470.9 1463.1 1257.9 1269.6 1260.5 1273.4 1274.4 1264.6 Federal................................. 520.0 523.8 516.1 525.7 527.3 515.3 464.2 457.0 452.8 458.8 456.1 444.5 National defense...................... 352.8 350.3 343.3 352.1 355.2 339.3 317.8 308.6 303.9 310.3 311.1 295.6 Consumption expenditures............ 305.7 310.9 306.4 311.6 314.4 301.4 275.5 272.9 270.3 273.6 273.9 261.0 Gross investment.................... 47.0 39.4 37.0 40.5 40.8 37.9 42.3 35.7 33.5 36.7 37.2 34.6 Nondefense............................ 167.3 173.5 172.8 173.6 172.0 176.0 146.1 147.9 148.5 148.0 144.8 148.3 Consumption expenditures............ 145.7 152.9 151.7 153.1 154.0 155.2 125.3 127.6 127.7 127.8 126.6 127.7 Gross investment.................... 21.5 20.6 21.1 20.5 18.0 20.8 21.0 20.3 20.8 20.3 17.8 20.7 State and local......................... 886.7 928.9 917.0 932.3 943.6 947.7 793.7 812.7 807.7 814.7 818.3 820.2 Consumption expenditures............ 730.9 762.9 751.7 766.1 776.4 782.7 653.6 666.6 661.1 668.6 672.5 676.4 Gross investment.................... 155.7 166.0 165.2 166.2 167.2 165.1 140.1 146.1 146.6 146.1 145.8 143.8 Residual.................................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -44.3 -80.5 -62.7 -87.5 -94.4 -127.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product.................... 7636.0 8079.9 7933.6 8124.3 8227.4 8344.9 6928.4 7188.8 7101.6 7214.0 7280.0 7365.6 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world........................ 234.3 262.2 248.2 269.4 269.8 270.7 214.2 236.3 224.6 242.5 242.0 242.8 Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world........................ 232.6 282.0 262.5 290.1 293.1 293.5 210.2 250.1 234.0 256.9 258.7 259.0 Equals: Gross national product............ 7637.7 8060.1 7919.2 8103.5 8204.2 8322.1 6932.0 7174.4 7091.8 7198.8 7262.6 7348.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Disposition of personal income Personal income........................... 6495.2 6873.9 6746.2 6906.9 7013.5 7125.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Wage and salary disbursements........... 3632.5 3877.4 3791.5 3896.1 3980.4 4065.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Other labor income...................... 407.6 416.6 412.3 417.7 421.4 425.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 520.3 544.5 534.6 547.2 552.5 556.7 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Farm.................................. 37.2 40.7 40.2 40.9 38.2 32.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................... 483.1 503.8 494.4 506.3 514.3 524.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................. 146.3 147.9 149.0 148.0 145.7 143.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal dividend income................ 291.2 321.5 312.5 324.5 330.7 336.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal interest income................ 735.7 768.6 757.2 772.6 778.4 783.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Transfer payments to persons............ 1068.0 1121.1 1107.2 1125.7 1134.8 1153.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.............................. 306.3 323.7 318.2 324.8 330.4 338.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.... 886.9 988.7 955.7 998.0 1022.1 1059.7 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Disposable personal income........ 5608.3 5885.2 5790.5 5908.9 5991.4 6066.3 5076.9 5221.9 5161.1 5234.1 5291.4 5352.2 Less: Personal outlays................. .. 5368.8 5658.5 5574.6 5700.8 5755.6 5844.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Personal saving................... 239.6 226.7 215.9 208.2 235.8 222.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............... 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.9 3.7 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. r Revised Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 107.97 110.95 115.12 113.73 114.66 115.53 116.58 117.96 Chain-type price index......... 107.76 110.22 112.45 111.78 112.27 112.67 113.07 113.36 Implicit price deflator........ 107.76 110.21 112.40 111.71 112.22 112.62 113.01 113.29 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 108.90 111.71 115.35 114.18 114.45 116.03 116.74 118.48 Chain-type price index................... 107.89 110.47 112.71 112.21 112.49 112.91 113.24 113.35 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 119.46 125.09 132.14 130.55 128.75 134.31 134.96 140.04 Chain-type price index................. 104.27 103.83 102.17 103.27 102.50 101.74 101.18 100.72 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.86 108.36 110.34 110.29 109.70 110.87 110.52 112.28 Chain-type price index................. 104.48 107.15 109.16 108.90 108.89 109.24 109.59 109.24 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.89 110.86 114.72 113.05 114.13 115.22 116.48 117.62 Chain-type price index................. 110.53 113.76 117.02 116.02 116.70 117.42 117.96 118.45 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.81 132.97 143.42 137.73 141.86 146.70 147.37 153.23 Chain-type price index................... 104.78 104.70 104.52 104.52 104.47 104.55 104.56 104.03 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 126.65 138.33 152.06 145.00 150.03 156.75 156.43 162.75 Chain-type price index................. 102.33 101.26 99.87 100.31 99.93 99.73 99.49 98.73 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 113.94 120.64 123.91 121.17 123.36 124.19 126.93 131.76 Chain-type price index................. 110.93 113.64 117.06 115.68 116.65 117.57 118.33 118.53 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 123.74 134.03 150.56 144.30 150.53 152.17 155.25 154.05 Chain-type price index................... 103.44 101.61 99.38 99.90 99.72 99.21 98.68 97.45 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 133.05 145.22 165.82 156.80 164.30 169.98 172.18 179.35 Chain-type price index................... 101.62 99.41 95.52 97.42 95.52 94.81 94.31 91.54 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.06 99.54 100.46 99.74 100.50 100.77 100.84 100.07 Chain-type price index................... 108.28 111.83 114.47 113.74 114.14 114.54 115.46 115.74 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 89.08 87.92 86.55 85.76 87.14 86.89 86.39 84.19 Chain-type price index................. 108.34 112.03 114.74 114.10 114.46 114.71 115.71 116.05 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.23 107.88 110.46 109.78 110.10 110.73 111.22 111.48 Chain-type price index................. 108.24 111.71 114.31 113.54 113.95 114.44 115.32 115.56 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.62 110.64 114.12 112.77 113.47 114.80 115.45 116.41 Chain-type price index................. 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.18 113.51 Implicit price deflator................ 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.18 113.50 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 108.98 112.17 116.75 115.09 116.14 117.38 118.36 120.48 Chain-type price index................. 107.52 109.86 111.76 111.32 111.55 111.90 112.28 112.29 Implicit price deflator................ 107.52 109.85 111.69 111.24 111.48 111.83 112.21 112.21 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.88 110.81 114.69 113.37 114.21 115.08 116.10 117.48 Chain-type price index................. 107.74 110.19 112.40 111.73 112.22 112.62 113.02 113.31 Implicit price deflator................ 107.73 110.18 112.35 111.67 112.17 112.57 112.96 113.25 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. r Revised Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.0 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 2.5 6.1 Durable goods........................ 3.8 4.3 11.0 -3.0 3.9 9.3 2.0 4.8 9.7 -1.9 3.5 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.9 15.9 Nondurable goods..................... 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.7 .9 .7 .7 1.7 2.6 .6 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.2 6.5 Services............................. 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.7 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.0 Gross private domestic fixed investment 11.9 4.2 7.0 7.6 -.7 3.5 5.9 10.7 14.4 10.1 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.4 1.8 16.9 Nonresidential....................... 9.9 7.7 12.6 14.2 5.7 1.6 4.9 11.7 13.0 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -.8 17.2 Structures......................... 21.1 -1.1 2.3 9.5 4.3 .7 -5.8 8.2 7.9 10.0 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -2.3 -7.4 Producers' durable equipment....... 5.9 11.4 16.9 16.1 6.2 2.0 9.4 13.1 14.9 19.1 2.6 6.7 23.0 24.1 -.3 27.5 Residential.......................... 16.6 -3.1 -5.0 -7.0 -15.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 17.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.1 16.1 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... 17.7 10.6 14.7 7.2 9.3 13.5 11.5 1.7 9.6 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 4.4 8.3 -3.0 Imports of goods and services.......... 19.0 13.1 9.9 10.0 7.7 2.3 2.4 13.1 14.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.6 5.3 17.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .4 8.2 -3.8 .6 -.1 -.7 -5.4 1.8 7.2 -1.1 .1 -.4 3.1 1.1 .3 -3.0 Federal.............................. -4.9 13.3 -11.3 -1.1 -4.5 -1.3 -16.4 7.5 8.8 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.3 -9.8 National defense................... 1.0 13.8 -18.6 -1.1 -1.6 -4.0 -15.9 6.1 11.0 -4.6 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.0 -18.4 Nondefense......................... -16.6 12.2 6.5 -.9 -10.3 4.8 -17.5 10.5 4.3 -3.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 10.1 State and local...................... 4.0 5.1 1.2 1.7 2.6 -.4 1.9 -1.4 6.3 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 .9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 5.2 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.3 3.4 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 4.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 2.1 2.5 .4 2.2 3.6 .6 3.8 1.7 4.1 Durable goods........................ .3 .3 .9 -.3 .3 .7 .2 .4 .8 -.2 .3 1.1 -.5 1.4 .2 1.2 Nondurable goods..................... .4 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .1 .4 .9 -.4 .8 -.2 1.2 Services............................. 1.3 .8 .7 .9 1.4 .9 .9 1.4 1.2 .4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment 1.5 .6 .9 1.0 -.1 .5 .8 1.4 1.9 1.4 .4 .6 1.7 2.0 .3 2.3 Nonresidential....................... .9 .7 1.1 1.3 .6 .2 .5 1.1 1.3 1.6 .6 .4 1.4 1.9 -.1 1.7 Structures......................... .5 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 -.1 -.2 Producers' durable equipment....... .4 .7 1.1 1.0 .4 .1 .6 .9 1.0 1.3 .2 .5 1.6 1.7 .0 1.9 Residential.......................... .6 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.7 .3 .3 .3 .7 -.2 -.2 .1 .3 .1 .4 .6 Change in business inventories......... 1.4 -1.5 .9 -.8 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.8 .7 .8 -.2 1.8 .8 -1.6 1.4 1.4 Exports of goods and services.......... 1.7 1.0 1.4 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 .2 1.1 .2 2.7 1.1 2.0 .5 1.0 -.4 Imports of goods and services.......... -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.8 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 -.7 -2.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .1 1.5 -.7 .1 .0 -.1 -1.0 .3 1.3 -.2 .0 -.1 .6 .2 .1 -.5 Federal.............................. -.4 .9 -.9 -.1 -.3 -.1 -1.2 .5 .6 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.1 -.1 -.7 National defense................... .0 .7 -1.0 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.8 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.6 .3 .1 .0 -.9 Nondefense......................... -.4 .3 .1 .0 -.3 .1 -.4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .1 -.1 -.2 .2 State and local...................... .5 .6 .1 .2 .3 .0 .2 -.2 .7 .1 .4 .3 .1 .3 .2 .1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- r Revised Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.2 4.0 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.7 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.8 3.6 3.8 Durable goods........................ 7.0 6.0 6.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.0 5.0 6.4 3.6 3.9 6.2 2.3 7.2 6.8 7.3 Nondurable goods..................... 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 2.2 1.4 1.8 Services............................. 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.0 4.0 Gross private domestic fixed investment 9.9 9.3 6.6 7.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 8.6 10.2 9.5 7.7 7.3 8.3 8.0 11.3 Nonresidential....................... 7.8 8.5 7.6 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.9 7.7 11.4 11.7 9.8 10.2 10.8 9.0 12.2 Structures......................... 2.4 1.3 1.1 7.6 3.7 4.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 4.9 10.3 7.6 4.3 3.5 -.7 -2.1 Producers' durable equipment....... 10.0 11.5 10.2 12.5 12.6 10.1 8.3 7.6 9.7 14.1 12.2 10.6 12.5 13.7 12.9 18.0 Residential.......................... 15.0 11.2 4.2 .0 -7.8 -5.1 -1.9 1.9 10.7 7.3 3.9 2.7 .4 2.2 5.6 8.7 Exports of goods and services.......... 6.7 11.7 10.0 12.5 10.4 11.1 10.3 8.9 9.0 6.1 9.3 11.4 13.6 14.3 10.2 6.8 Imports of goods and services.......... 11.8 14.2 12.3 13.0 10.2 7.5 5.6 6.3 7.8 10.6 11.8 12.9 14.5 14.8 14.4 14.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.8 1.4 .1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 .6 .5 2.0 1.4 .4 .9 1.0 .3 Federal.............................. -5.3 -1.0 -3.9 -1.4 -1.3 -4.6 -6.0 -4.1 -.9 -1.6 1.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.5 -.7 -1.8 National defense................... -5.8 -1.2 -6.0 -1.9 -2.6 -6.6 -5.9 -4.2 -1.3 -1.4 1.1 -3.5 -4.3 -2.8 -.8 -2.7 Nondefense......................... -4.0 -.6 .9 -.3 1.5 -.2 -6.4 -3.8 -.1 -2.1 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.4 -.6 -.1 State and local...................... 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.3 1.4 .7 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.5 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 3.7 3.1 3.2 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 .9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.6 3.3 Durable goods........................ -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 4.0 4.7 5.6 Nondurable goods..................... .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 Services............................. 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.1 8.3 7.9 Nonresidential....................... -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.0 9.2 9.9 Structures......................... -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.8 3.6 Producers' durable equipment....... -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.9 12.5 Residential.......................... -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 5.9 2.7 Exports of goods and services.......... -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.1 8.3 12.3 Imports of goods and services.......... -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.9 9.1 14.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .0 .5 .9 Federal.............................. 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 National defense................... 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.3 -1.5 -2.9 Nondefense......................... -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.4 -.9 1.2 State and local...................... -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.6 2.4 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 Gross domestic purchases price index. 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- r Revised Table 6.--Corporate Profits [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments....... 650.0 735.9 805.0 779.6 795.1 827.3 818.1 822.5 Profits before tax..................... 622.6 676.6 729.8 708.4 719.8 753.4 737.3 718.4 Profits tax liability................ 213.2 229.0 249.4 241.2 244.5 258.2 253.6 245.4 Profits after tax.................... 409.4 447.6 480.3 467.2 475.3 495.2 483.7 473.0 Dividends.......................... 264.4 304.8 336.1 326.8 333.0 339.1 345.6 352.2 Undistributed profits.............. 145.0 142.8 144.2 140.3 142.3 156.1 138.1 120.8 Inventory valuation adjustment......... -24.3 -2.5 5.5 3.5 5.9 3.6 9.2 30.2 Capital consumption adjustment......... 51.6 61.8 69.7 67.7 69.4 70.3 71.6 73.9 Addenda: Net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments..... 601.3 654.3 695.1 678.9 690.2 707.9 703.4 714.6 Undistributed profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... 172.4 202.1 219.5 211.5 217.6 230.0 218.9 224.9 Consumption of fixed capital........... 428.9 452.3 475.6 467.4 472.6 478.0 484.5 489.7 Less: Inventory valuation adjustment..... -24.3 -2.5 5.5 3.5 5.9 3.6 9.2 30.2 Equals: Net cash flow.................... 625.5 656.8 689.6 675.5 684.4 704.3 694.2 684.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7.--Corporate Profits by Industry [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.......................... 650.0 735.9 805.0 779.6 795.1 827.3 818.1 822.5 Domestic industries........................ 563.2 640.0 706.5 682.2 694.4 727.5 721.8 723.5 Financial................................ 88.7 94.2 109.5 106.8 107.7 109.3 114.3 115.3 Nonfinancial............................. 474.6 545.8 596.9 575.4 586.7 618.2 607.5 608.2 Rest of the world.......................... 86.7 95.9 98.6 97.4 100.8 99.9 96.3 99.0 Receipts from the rest of the world...... 120.2 132.7 145.9 139.9 148.3 150.5 145.0 146.0 Less: Payments to the rest of the world. 33.5 36.7 47.3 42.5 47.5 50.6 48.7 47.0 Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment................. 598.4 674.1 735.3 711.9 725.7 757.1 746.5 748.6 Domestic industries........................ 511.7 578.2 636.7 614.5 624.9 657.2 650.2 649.7 Financial................................ 97.6 103.5 119.5 116.5 117.5 119.4 124.5 125.7 Federal Reserve banks.................. 22.2 22.0 23.5 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.6 Other.................................. 75.4 81.5 96.0 93.7 94.3 95.7 100.3 101.0 Nonfinancial............................. 414.1 474.7 517.2 498.0 507.4 537.8 525.7 524.0 Manufacturing.......................... 181.3 205.5 224.7 208.2 221.0 240.4 229.0 ..... Durable goods........................ 85.2 99.0 114.5 101.3 111.8 128.1 116.6 ..... Primary metal industries........... 6.5 5.6 6.0 3.9 5.6 7.6 7.0 ..... Fabricated metal products.......... 12.4 17.1 18.9 17.4 18.4 20.8 18.8 ..... Industrial machinery and equipment. 22.0 25.8 28.8 24.0 27.8 32.5 30.8 ..... Electronic and other electric equipment......................... 19.2 23.9 33.8 31.4 33.3 36.7 33.7 ..... Motor vehicles and equipment....... -.2 -3.2 -1.9 -1.3 -3.5 .4 -3.3 ..... Other.............................. 25.3 29.8 28.9 25.9 30.2 30.0 29.7 ..... Nondurable goods..................... 96.0 106.5 110.2 106.9 109.2 112.3 112.4 ..... Food and kindred products.......... 27.1 28.5 29.9 28.0 28.2 29.1 34.4 ..... Chemicals and allied products...... 30.3 31.2 29.3 28.8 29.9 30.0 28.6 ..... Petroleum and coal products........ 6.0 10.0 12.2 12.4 10.3 12.4 13.9 ..... Other.............................. 32.6 36.8 38.7 37.7 40.8 40.9 35.6 ..... Transportation and public utilities.... 86.4 91.7 90.7 91.5 89.6 90.0 91.5 ..... Transportation....................... 11.4 11.7 16.1 14.9 16.4 16.9 16.3 ..... Communications....................... 33.6 36.0 32.8 33.8 30.8 33.4 33.4 ..... Electric, gas, and sanitary services. 41.4 44.0 41.7 42.8 42.4 39.8 41.8 ..... Wholesale trade........................ 26.9 38.3 51.1 49.0 49.5 54.1 51.7 ..... Retail trade........................... 41.9 48.9 55.8 55.1 54.9 57.9 55.2 ..... Other.................................. 77.6 90.3 95.0 94.2 92.4 95.3 98.2 ..... Rest of the world.......................... 86.7 95.9 98.6 97.4 100.8 99.9 96.3 99.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 8.--Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business...... 3,905.3 4,132.4 4,402.8 4,299.7 4,361.1 4,446.3 4,504.1 4,581.4 Consumption of fixed capital............... 373.4 393.4 413.3 406.3 410.7 415.3 420.8 425.2 Net domestic product....................... 3,531.9 3,739.0 3,989.5 3,893.4 3,950.4 4,031.0 4,083.3 4,156.3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies................. 399.8 421.8 439.6 432.2 437.0 445.3 443.8 450.5 Domestic income.......................... 3,132.1 3,317.2 3,549.9 3,461.2 3,513.3 3,585.7 3,639.4 3,705.8 Compensation of employees.............. 2,555.5 2,682.9 2,866.8 2,801.9 2,840.1 2,880.6 2,944.6 3,008.5 Wage and salary accruals............. 2,107.9 2,228.6 2,394.2 2,335.8 2,370.0 2,406.3 2,464.6 2,521.4 Supplements to wages and salaries.... 447.5 454.4 472.6 466.0 470.1 474.2 480.0 487.2 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... 474.6 545.8 596.9 575.4 586.7 618.2 607.5 608.2 Profits before tax................... 438.3 477.2 511.7 494.5 501.5 534.2 516.5 493.8 Profits tax liability.............. 139.4 154.8 165.4 159.4 161.8 174.1 166.4 157.1 Profits after tax.................. 298.9 322.4 346.3 335.1 339.8 360.1 350.2 336.7 Dividends........................ 188.3 196.4 211.1 207.0 208.1 207.7 221.8 225.7 Undistributed profits............ 110.6 126.0 135.2 128.2 131.7 152.4 128.4 110.9 Inventory valuation adjustment....... -24.3 -2.5 5.5 3.5 5.9 3.6 9.2 30.2 Capital consumption adjustment....... 60.5 71.1 79.7 77.4 79.3 80.4 81.8 84.2 Net interest........................... 102.0 88.5 86.2 83.9 86.6 87.0 87.3 89.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business...... 3,719.7 3,887.8 4,108.4 4,022.2 4,068.9 4,146.5 4,196.1 4,270.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real gross domestic product.. 1.050 1.063 1.072 1.069 1.072 1.072 1.073 1.073 Consumption of fixed capital............... .100 .101 .101 .101 .101 .100 .100 .100 Net domestic product....................... .950 .962 .971 .968 .971 .972 .973 .973 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies................. .107 .108 .107 .107 .107 .107 .106 .105 Domestic income.......................... .842 .853 .864 .861 .863 .865 .867 .868 Compensation of employees.............. .687 .690 .698 .697 .698 .695 .702 .705 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... .128 .140 .145 .143 .144 .149 .145 .142 Profits tax liability................ .037 .040 .040 .040 .040 .042 .040 .037 Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......................... .090 .101 .105 .103 .104 .107 .105 .106 Net interest........................... .027 .023 .021 .021 .021 .021 .021 .021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current-dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys. The real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures based on a "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1996), a variant of the standard quarterly formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. For this period, BEA uses weights from two adjacent quarters to calculate the change from the preceding quarter. BEA also publishes a second measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator." The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. Its values are very similar to those of the "chain-type" price index. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates. Reference: "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey of Current Business.