FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, JULY 31, 1998 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 98-24 Recorded message: 606-5306 Brent Moulton: 606-9606 (Annual Revision) Robert P. Parker: 606-9607 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCTS ACCOUNTS SECOND QUARTER 1998 GDP REVISED ESTIMATES: 1995 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 1998 Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 5.5 percent. Real GDP increased $26.3 billion in the second quarter, following an increase of $100.1 billion in the first. The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter estimates are based on preliminary and incomplete source data. Information on the assumptions used for missing source data is available on request. Revised estimates based on more comprehensive data will be issued next month. The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), producers' durable equipment (PDE), government spending, and residential structures. The contributions of these components were partially offset by a decrease in inventory investment, an increase in imports of goods and services, and a decrease in exports of goods and services. The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a sharp downturn in inventory investment and a deceleration of PDE. The estimates released today reflect revisions in the national income and product accounts beginning with the first quarter of 1995. Revisions are usually made each July mainly to incorporate source data that are more complete, more detailed, and otherwise more appropriate than previously available. This release includes the revised quarterly estimates of GDP, corporate profits, and personal income and provides an overview of the effects of the revision. The August 1998 Survey of Current Business will contain national income and product accounts tables and an article describing the revisions. The published estimates will be available on computer diskettes; to order, write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA Order Desk (BE-53), Washington, DC 20230, or call 1-800-704-0415. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.4 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the first. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 5.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 6.1 percent in the first. Durable goods purchases increased 10.0 percent, compared with an increase of 15.8 percent. Nondurable goods increased 5.9 percent, compared with an increase of 7.4 percent. Services expenditures increased 4.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 11.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 22.2 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures decreased 4.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 4.9 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 17.8 percent, compared with an increase of 34.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 13.2 percent, compared with an increase of 15.6 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 8.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 2.8 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.9 percent, compared with an increase of 15.7 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.0 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 8.8 percent in the first. National defense increased 9.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 18.5 percent. Nondefense increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 13.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. The real change in business inventories subtracted 2.3 percentage points from the second-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 1.2 percentage points to the first-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $44.7 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $91.4 billion in the first quarter and $66.5 billion in the fourth. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 3.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the first. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.8 percent in the first. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $77.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $99.0 billion in the first. Personal tax and nontax payments increased $20.4 billion, compared with an increase of $41.3 billion. Disposable personal income increased $57.1 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $57.7 billion in the first. Real disposable personal income increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent. Personal outlays increased $94.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $82.8 billion in the first. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $35.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with $73.0 billion in the first. The saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 1.2 percent in the first quarter to 0.6 percent in the second. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 2.3 percent, or $47.5 billion, in the second quarter. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.4 percent, or $129.7 billion. Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts Tables 1 through 8 of this release present revised estimates for the items shown regularly in the GDP news release. These revised estimates, which for most series begin with 1995, reflect the results of the regular annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's). These revisions, usually made each July, incorporate newly available and more comprehensive source data, as well as improved estimating methodologies. Tables 9 through 15 of this release show the effects of the revision on key NIPA aggregates and major components. Revisions to current-dollar annual levels of GDP, national income, and the disposition of personal income are shown in table 9; revisions to gross domestic income and the statistical discrepancy are shown in table 10; revisions to the estimates of real GDP and real disposable personal income are shown in table 11; and revisions to corporate profits are shown in table 12. Revisions to annual and quarterly percent changes in real GDP and in real disposable personal income are shown in table 13 and to the chain-type prices indexes in table 14. Revisions to the contributions to the annual and quarterly percent changes in real GDP are shown in table 15. This section of the release describes the sources of the revisions and discusses the highlights. New source data and changes in methodology The newly incorporated source data that contributed the most to the revisions were the following: Census Bureau annual surveys of manufactures, merchant wholesale trade, and retail trade for 1995 and 1996, services for 1995-97, and state and local governments for 1995-97; Census Bureau monthly survey of construction put in place for 1995-97; federal government budget data for fiscal years 1996-98; Internal Revenue Service tabulations of tax returns for corporations and for sole proprietorships and partnerships for 1996, Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations of wages and salaries of employees covered by state unemployment insurance for 1997; Department of Agriculture farm statistics for 1995-97; and Bureau of Economic Analysis balance of payments accounts and capital stock statistics for 1995-97. A table showing the major current-dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income will appear in the August issue of the Survey of Current Business. As announced in the July 1998 Survey of Current Business, data from new sources were also incorporated for several difficult-to-measure consumer services, including computer online services, cellular telephone services, motor vehicle leasing, brokerage and investment counseling, and casino gambling. A new method was introduced for the current quarterly estimates of the expenditures for light trucks (including minivans and sports utility vehicles). Several new price deflators were also introduced: Many personal consumption expenditures categories were deflated using newly available geometric-mean-type BLS consumer price indexes that allow for consumer substitution within categories, and several services categories were deflated using newly available BLS producer price indexes. This year's annual revision also incorporated a number of changes designed to better separate "income from current production" from "income attributable to capital gains on existing assets." In the most important of these changes, dividend payments were redefined to exclude payments that reflect identifiable capital gains distributions; previously, dividend payments included capital gains distributions of regulated investment companies -- that is, mutual funds. The redefinition resulted in a reduction in dividends and an offsetting increase in undistributed corporate profits; gross domestic product and national income were not affected. The reduction in dividends also resulted in reductions in personal income and in personal saving; however, national saving and private saving were not affected, because the reduction in personal saving was offset by the increase in business saving (undistributed corporate profits). All series affected by the redefinition are revised back to 1982. Revisions to 1995-97 estimates The level of real GDP was revised up for all 3 years: $19.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 1995; $66.4 billion, or 1.0 percent, for 1996; and $81.0 billion, or 1.1 percent, for 1997. The largest chained-dollar upward revisions for 1996 and 1997 were personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods and state and local consumption expenditures and gross investment. PCE for services and change in business inventories (CBI) were revised up for 1996, and nonresidential structures and exports of goods and services were revised up for 1997. There were no major downward revisions for either 1996 or 1997. In general, revisions to real GDP reflect four factors: (1) Revisions to current-dollar components of GDP for which chained-dollar estimates are prepared by deflation, (2) revisions to the prices used in deflation, (3) revisions to the quantities used to estimate components of real GDP by extrapolation or direct valuation, and (4) revisions resulting from the use of revised and updated weights in the calculation of real GDP. In this annual revision, the revisions to real GDP primarily reflected the first two factors. The percent change from the preceding year in real GDP was revised up for all 3 years: From 2.0 percent to 2.3 percent for 1995, from 2.8 percent to 3.4 percent for 1996, and from 3.8 percent to 3.9 percent for 1997. From fourth quarter to fourth quarter, the change in real GDP was revised up for all 3 years: From 1.6 percent to 2.1 percent for 1995, from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent for 1996, and from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent for 1997. During 1997, the upward revision was mainly accounted for by PCE for goods, nonresidential structures, state and local government spending, and imports of goods and services; CBI, PCE for services, and exports of goods and services were revised down. The previously published changes in real GDP for the quarters of 1995-97 were revised up for nine quarters and revised down for three quarters. The largest upward revision was 1.5 percentage points (first quarter of 1996); the largest downward revisions were 0.7 percentage point (first and fourth quarters of 1997). As a result of these revisions, the pattern of growth in real GDP for the last two quarters of 1997 was changed: In the previously published estimates, growth accelerated from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent; in the revised estimates, growth decelerates from 4.2 percent to 3.0 percent. Changes in the chain-type price index for GDP were revised down in all quarters but one (first quarter of 1997), which was revised up 0.4 percentage point. The largest downward revision was 0.9 percentage point (third quarter of 1996). The percent change from the preceding year in the price index for gross domestic purchases was revised down for all 3 years: From 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent for 1995, from 2.2 percent to 1.8 percent for 1996, and from 1.7 percent to 1.6 percent for 1997. Current-dollar GDP was revised up for all 3 years: $4.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 1995; $25.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 1996, and $31.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, for 1997. The percent change from the preceding year was unrevised at 4.6 percent for 1995, revised up from 5.1 percent to 5.4 percent for 1996, and revised up from 5.8 percent to 5.9 percent for 1997. Current-dollar GNP (GDP plus net receipts of factor income from the rest of the world) was revised up for all 3 years: $16.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 1995; $36.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 1996; and $42.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 1997. Net receipts of factor income was revised up for all 3 years: $12.3 billion for 1995, $10.7 billion for 1996, and $11.8 billion for 1997. (The revisions to factor incomes, which affect GNP, national income, corporate profits, net interest, and personal interest income, stem from revisions to BEA's balance of payments accounts released in June. Although the revisions to the balance of payments accounts extended back 12 years, the revisions prior to 1995 are not incorporated into the national income and product accounts at this time. An article describing the balance of payments revisions appeared in the July 1998 Survey of Current Business.) National income was revised up $11.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 1995; revised up $1.5 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, for 1996; and revised down $3.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, for 1997. For 1995, corporate profits more than accounted for the revision; supplements to wages and salaries and net interest were revised down. For 1996, upward revisions to corporate profits, to proprietors' income, to wage and salary accruals, and to rental income of persons more than offset downward revisions to supplements to wages and salaries and to net interest. For 1997, downward revisions to supplements to wages and salaries and to net interest more than offset upward revisions to wage and salary accruals, to corporate profits, to rental income of persons, and to proprietors' income. Corporate profits from current production -- profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments -- was revised up for all 3 years: $22.4 billion for 1995, $14.5 billion for 1996, and $12.9 billion for 1997. The capital consumption adjustment accounted for about one-third of the revision for 1995, accounted for about two-thirds of the revision for 1996, and accounted for about one-half of the revision for 1997. The upward revisions to this adjustment, which converts the measure of depreciation reported by business into the measure used in the NIPA's, reflected upward revisions to depreciation reported by businesses. The profits before tax component was revised up for all 3 years. For 1995, profits of financial institutions accounted for more than one-half of the upward revision, and for 1996 and 1997, financial profits more than accounted for the upward revisions. Nonfinancial profits was revised up for 1995 and down for 1996 and 1997; manufacturing accounted for about one-half of the upward revision for 1995 and more than accounted for the downward revisions for 1996 and 1997. Personal income was revised down for all 3 years: $78.7 billion, or 1.3 percent, for 1995; $70.0 billion, or 1.1 percent, for 1996; and $89.9 billion, or 1.3 percent, for 1997. The downward revisions to personal dividend income, reflecting the redefinition affecting dividends paid by regulated investment companies (mutual funds), accounted for most of the revisions. For 1995-97, downward revisions to personal interest income and to other labor income -- primarily employer contributions to private pension and profit-sharing plans and to group health and life insurance plans -- also contributed to the revisions. For 1996, these downward revisions were partly offset by upward revisions to proprietors' income and to rental income of persons. For 1997, the downward revisions to personal dividend income, to other labor income, to personal interest income, as well as a downward revision to transfer payments to persons were partly offset by upward revisions to wage and salary disbursements, to rental income of persons, and to proprietors' income. Disposable personal income (personal income less personal tax and nontax payments) was revised down for all 3 years: $78.7 billion for 1995, $73.6 billion for 1996, and $90.1 billion for 1997. For all 3 years, the revisions were similar to those to personal income. Real disposable income (DPI) was revised down for all 3 years. The percent change from the preceding year in real DPI was revised down from 3.3 percent to 2.8 percent for 1995, revised up from 2.3 percent to 2.8 percent for 1996, and revised down from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent for 1997. Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net) -- was revised down for 1995, up for 1996, and up for 1997. For 1995, the revision was mostly accounted for by PCE. For 1996, the revision was more than accounted for by PCE. For 1997, the revision was about equally accounted for by the upward revision to PCE and the upward revision to interest paid by persons. The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of DPI) was revised down for all 3 years: From 4.8 percent to 3.4 percent for 1995, from 4.3 percent to 2.9 percent for 1996, and from 3.9 percent to 2.1 percent for 1997; the downward revisions primarily reflected the redefinition affecting dividends paid by regulated investment companies. The statistical discrepancy is current-dollar GDP less current-dollar gross domestic income (GDI). It arises because most components of GDP and of gross domestic income are estimated independently. GDP measures final expenditures -- the sum of consumer spending, private investment, net exports, and government spending. GDI measures the costs incurred and the profits earned in production of GDP. In concept, GDP is equal to GDI. In practice, they differ because they are estimated using less than perfectly consistent source data. (The statistical discrepancy is also equal to GNP less gross national income.) In the revised estimates, the statistical discrepancy is smaller (in absolute value) for all 3 years. The statistical discrepancy as a percentage of GDP was unrevised at -0.4 percent for 1995, revised from -0.8 percent to -0.4 percent for 1996, and revised from -1.1 percent to -0.7 percent for 1997. The revisions to the discrepancy for 1996 and 1997 were primarily accounted for by upward revisions to GDP. From 1994:IV to 1997:IV, the difference between the average annual rates of change for GDP and GDI was revised from 0.4 percentage point to 0.2 percentage point, with GDI increasing at a rate of 0.2 percentage point more than GDP. During the most recent year, from 1996:IV to 1997:IV, the difference between the rates for GDI and for GDP was unrevised at 0.5 percentage point. Although in this year's annual revision the revisions were mainly to the expenditure, or product estimates, this largely reflects the availability of new or revised source data. Most of the research necessary to address problems in the income estimates (the inclusion of capital gains in the source data on wages and salaries or problems in separating domestic from foreign source income in corporate profits) are longer-term projects, whose impact will be reflected in subsequent annual and benchmark revisions. BEA continues to find the estimates of GDP to be more accurate than those of GDI because of the reliability and timeliness of the source data used in their construction. Nevertheless, BEA has been and will continue to attempt to determine the causes for the change in the statistical discrepancy since 1993. Information on BEA's research to identify the cause for this change will appear in the Survey of Current Business. Business cycle Real GDP reached a cyclical trough in the first quarter of 1991. From the first quarter of 1991 to the first quarter of 1998, the average annual rate of change for real GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point, from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent. BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to: http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * * Next release -- August 27, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 1998 (Preliminary) Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 1998 The Second Quarter 1998 (Preliminary) GDP news release on August 27, 1998, will incorporate new and improved tables. For further information, contact Larry R. Moran (202) 606-2649. Measures of Revision Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: Advance estimates, based on preliminary and incomplete source data and BEA assumptions about the missing source data, are released in the first month after the end of the quarter; preliminary and final estimates, which incorporate additional and revised source data, are released in the second and third months, respectively. Additional revisions are carried out in each of the following 3 years, usually in July, and in comprehensive (benchmark) revisions, usually every 5 years. The latest estimates, which reflect the results of these revisions, are based on new and revised source data and also reflect improved estimating procedures, and definitional or classificational changes. The table below provides summary measures of the amount of revision in past years in quarterly percent changes in current-dollar GDP and real GDP. These measures can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in the final estimate were within a range of -0.7 to +0.8 percentage point. Thus, based on past experience, it is likely that the second-quarter change in real GDP now estimated at 1.4 percent at an annual rate, will not be revised below 0.7 percent or above 2.2 percent in the next two releases. Revision in Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Changes at Annual Rate Range Quarterly estimates Average Two-thirds Nine-tenths compared without regard of of to sign revisions revisions Current-dollar GDP Advance to final....... 0.7 -0.7 to 1.0 -1.2 to 1.4 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .6 to .7 Advance to latest...... 1.1 - .7 to 1.6 -2.1 to 3.1 Preliminary to latest.. 1.0 - .9 to 1.6 -2.1 to 2.7 Final to latest........ 1.1 - .8 to 1.5 -2.1 to 2.7 Real GDP Advance to final....... 0.6 -0.7 to 0.8 -1.1 to 1.2 Preliminary to final... .3 - .4 to .3 - .5 to .6 Advance to latest...... 1.1 -1.0 to 1.3 -1.9 to 2.7 Preliminary to latest.. 1.2 -1.0 to 1.3 -2.3 to 2.9 Final to latest........ 1.2 -1.5 to 1.6 -2.2 to 2.7 NOTE.--These measures are based on the period from 1983 through 1994. Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 151.0 233.1 275.0 69.8 74.7 53.4 100.1 26.3 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 119.6 146.8 161.1 19.3 74.3 34.0 74.1 71.4 Durable goods............................ 27.9 37.0 42.5 -2.5 25.8 5.2 25.5 17.1 Nondurable goods......................... 27.7 33.3 35.4 -.8 18.6 -1.4 26.9 21.9 Services................................. 64.1 77.1 84.8 21.5 31.8 29.4 24.5 33.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 50.5 84.6 87.4 31.0 32.3 10.2 55.4 35.1 Nonresidential........................... 62.2 66.0 82.8 27.3 34.0 4.0 45.7 25.6 Structures............................. 8.2 9.0 13.5 -3.2 5.9 .5 -2.6 -2.3 Producers' durable equipment........... 54.9 58.1 71.1 32.8 28.8 3.8 52.4 30.9 Residential.............................. -10.2 19.1 6.9 4.1 -.2 5.6 10.6 9.4 Change in business inventories............. -32.9 2.3 33.2 22.7 -28.0 15.5 24.9 -46.7 Net exports of goods and services.......... 8.1 -14.7 -24.9 -10.1 -10.8 -6.6 -49.5 -54.4 Exports.................................. 80.2 67.4 110.0 34.2 24.5 10.7 -6.9 -20.6 Imports.................................. 72.0 82.2 134.9 44.3 35.3 17.3 42.6 33.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 2.2 13.7 16.8 6.7 4.5 .3 -6.2 11.8 Federal.................................. -16.0 -5.0 -7.6 4.1 -1.5 -2.4 -10.4 7.7 National defense....................... -13.4 -4.4 -10.2 6.7 -1.5 -1.5 -15.4 6.7 Nondefense............................. -2.6 -.7 2.4 -2.5 .0 -.9 4.6 1.1 State and local.......................... 18.2 18.8 24.4 2.7 5.9 2.8 4.2 4.1 Residual................................... .9 -1.7 -4.1 -1.6 -1.6 1.0 -6.0 4.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.4 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.7 3.2 3.4 1.6 6.2 2.8 6.1 5.8 Durable goods............................ 5.0 6.3 6.8 -1.5 16.8 3.1 15.8 10.0 Nondurable goods......................... 2.0 2.4 2.4 -.2 5.1 -.4 7.4 5.9 Services................................. 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 4.7 4.3 3.5 4.8 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 5.5 8.8 8.3 11.8 12.0 3.6 20.4 11.9 Nonresidential........................... 9.6 9.3 10.7 14.0 17.0 1.8 22.2 11.4 Structures............................. 4.8 5.0 7.1 -6.2 12.4 .9 -4.9 -4.5 Producers' durable equipment........... 11.5 10.9 12.1 22.8 18.8 2.2 34.3 17.8 Residential.............................. -3.8 7.4 2.5 6.1 -.4 8.2 15.6 13.2 Exports of goods and services.............. 11.3 8.5 12.8 15.5 10.6 4.4 -2.8 -8.0 Imports of goods and services.............. 8.8 9.2 13.9 17.9 13.5 6.3 15.7 11.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .2 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.4 .1 -1.9 3.7 Federal.................................. -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 3.6 -1.2 -2.1 -8.8 7.0 National defense....................... -4.0 -1.3 -3.2 9.1 -1.8 -2.0 -18.5 9.4 Nondefense............................. -1.8 -.5 1.7 -6.4 -.1 -2.3 13.1 2.8 State and local.......................... 2.4 2.4 3.1 1.3 2.9 1.3 2.1 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .8 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 2.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.6 -3.4 -1.9 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 2.2 -2.2 -3.7 -7.1 -2.1 -2.3 -10.4 -4.5 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.3 1.8 1.6 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 .4 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 .0 1.0 Durable goods............................ .4 -.9 -2.0 -3.4 -2.8 -2.4 -1.4 -2.2 Nondurable goods......................... 1.2 2.0 1.5 -.2 .8 .9 -2.2 .2 Services................................. 3.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.4 2.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.4 -.1 -.2 -.5 .4 -.5 -2.1 -2.2 Nonresidential........................... .5 -.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 -1.6 -3.0 -3.3 Structures............................. 4.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.6 Producers' durable equipment........... -.9 -2.2 -3.0 -3.2 -2.9 -3.3 -5.0 -5.3 Residential.............................. 3.5 1.9 2.6 1.9 4.0 2.4 .0 .8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.2 .8 2.2 1.1 .6 Federal.................................. 3.2 2.9 2.0 .9 -.2 1.4 2.7 -.1 National defense....................... 2.7 3.3 1.8 .5 -.4 1.2 2.9 .1 Nondefense............................. 4.1 2.2 2.4 1.7 .4 1.8 2.2 -.4 State and local.......................... 3.1 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.4 2.7 .2 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,761.7 6,994.8 7,269.8 7,236.5 7,311.2 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,491.0 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 792.6 860.0 970.0 963.6 988.1 998.8 991.9 971.3 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 889.0 971.2 1,106.1 1,095.2 1,130.5 1,147.8 1,190.4 1,224.2 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,855.0 7,101.1 7,396.5 7,359.4 7,443.1 7,502.1 7,644.9 7,717.3 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,605.6 4,752.4 4,913.5 4,872.7 4,947.0 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,126.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 966.0 1,050.6 1,138.0 1,127.0 1,159.3 1,169.5 1,224.9 1,260.0 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 27.7 30.0 63.2 79.0 51.0 66.5 91.4 44.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,254.5 1,268.2 1,285.0 1,284.4 1,288.9 1,289.2 1,283.0 1,294.8 Less: Change in business inventories....... 27.7 30.0 63.2 79.0 51.0 66.5 91.4 44.7 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,824.9 7,068.0 7,330.2 7,278.3 7,388.0 7,432.1 7,552.2 7,668.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,731.7 6,961.6 7,203.7 7,155.5 7,256.3 7,294.8 7,372.5 7,442.5 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,779.5 7,008.4 7,266.2 7,239.3 7,307.0 7,350.7 7,455.2 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 7,269.6 7,661.6 8,110.9 8,063.4 8,170.8 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,431.7 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 7,238.9 7,629.5 8,043.5 7,979.9 8,116.2 8,182.6 8,288.7 8,385.4 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,353.5 7,752.8 8,204.3 8,150.2 8,265.5 8,353.3 8,508.0 8,598.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 7,322.8 7,720.7 8,136.9 8,066.7 8,210.9 8,281.4 8,412.5 8,552.0 GNP.................................... 7,287.1 7,674.0 8,102.9 8,062.3 8,162.0 8,234.9 8,369.4 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 2.3 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.4 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.7 5.8 2.1 4.3 3.9 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.1 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 3.2 7.8 3.8 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.1 6.2 2.4 6.6 6.3 GNP...................................... 2.4 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.8 2.4 5.8 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 4.6 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.4 4.2 6.4 2.3 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.1 5.4 5.4 4.4 7.0 3.3 5.3 4.7 Gross domestic purchases................. 4.5 5.4 5.8 5.2 5.8 4.3 7.6 4.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 5.0 5.4 5.4 4.0 7.3 3.5 6.5 6.8 GNP...................................... 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.0 3.6 6.7 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .8 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 .9 .9 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.3 1.8 1.6 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 .4 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.3 1.8 1.6 .9 1.1 1.0 -.1 .5 GNP...................................... 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 .9 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.3 1.8 1.6 .8 1.1 1.1 -.2 .5 GNP.................................... 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 .8 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3a.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.................... 6947.0 7269.6 7661.6 8110.9 6794.3 6911.4 6986.5 7095.7 7170.8 7210.9 7304.8 7391.9 Personal consumption expenditures.............. 4717.0 4953.9 5215.7 5493.7 4616.6 4680.5 4750.6 4820.2 4862.5 4931.5 4986.4 5035.3 Durable goods................................ 579.5 611.0 643.3 673.0 563.2 572.4 583.3 599.3 598.4 606.0 616.9 622.8 Motor vehicles and parts................... 246.6 255.4 264.8 269.5 244.1 243.3 245.4 253.7 250.3 254.4 257.9 259.1 Furniture and household equipment................................. 226.2 241.2 256.0 271.4 216.2 223.5 229.7 235.4 236.2 237.9 243.2 247.4 Other...................................... 106.7 114.4 122.5 132.1 102.9 105.7 108.2 110.2 111.9 113.7 115.8 116.3 Nondurable goods............................. 1428.4 1473.6 1539.2 1600.6 1404.4 1416.0 1439.5 1453.7 1459.6 1470.7 1476.8 1487.5 Food....................................... 714.5 731.8 755.0 780.9 703.9 711.8 718.5 723.7 726.1 730.4 733.0 737.6 Clothing and shoes......................... 247.8 254.1 265.7 278.0 244.1 245.0 249.0 253.2 251.4 252.9 255.3 256.8 Gasoline and oil........................... 109.4 115.6 124.5 126.5 106.2 105.1 111.8 114.3 116.1 116.8 115.2 114.3 Fuel oil and coal.......................... 10.5 10.9 12.2 11.2 11.7 10.1 10.6 9.8 10.1 11.1 11.0 11.3 Other...................................... 346.2 361.3 381.8 403.9 338.4 344.0 349.6 352.7 355.9 359.5 362.2 367.5 Services..................................... 2709.1 2869.2 3033.2 3220.1 2649.0 2692.2 2727.8 2767.2 2804.5 2854.7 2892.7 2925.0 Housing.................................... 712.7 750.4 787.4 829.8 698.1 707.8 717.7 727.2 736.9 745.9 754.5 764.5 Household operation........................ 283.7 296.9 314.5 327.3 274.8 287.1 286.2 286.6 288.0 295.2 303.0 301.5 Electricity and gas...................... 116.6 119.2 125.5 126.2 118.2 120.0 115.6 112.8 113.5 118.9 123.8 120.7 Other household operation................ 167.0 177.7 189.0 201.1 156.6 167.1 170.7 173.7 174.5 176.3 179.2 180.8 Transportation............................. 186.2 203.1 222.3 240.3 179.6 184.5 188.3 192.6 195.7 200.5 206.2 209.9 Medical care............................... 731.6 776.2 806.8 843.4 717.8 726.5 735.9 746.4 762.3 771.4 780.8 790.2 Other...................................... 794.8 842.6 902.3 979.3 778.7 786.4 799.7 814.5 821.6 841.7 848.2 858.9 Gross private domestic investment.............. 1007.9 1043.2 1131.9 1256.0 963.4 1017.9 1007.1 1043.1 1058.9 1029.6 1030.6 1053.6 Fixed investment............................. 946.6 1012.5 1099.8 1188.6 911.0 941.7 956.9 977.0 1000.0 1004.3 1013.5 1032.1 Nonresidential............................. 660.6 727.7 787.9 860.7 634.6 652.9 667.4 687.5 713.6 728.1 729.5 739.5 Structures............................... 184.5 201.3 216.9 240.2 175.4 185.2 186.8 190.7 197.9 201.8 203.0 202.2 Nonresidential buildings, including farm........................ 128.7 143.8 160.9 177.3 120.7 130.9 130.0 133.2 139.7 144.2 144.7 146.6 Utilities.............................. 32.0 33.9 31.7 33.5 32.1 31.6 32.0 32.4 33.6 34.5 34.4 33.2 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................. 16.7 16.3 18.1 22.7 15.7 15.8 17.0 18.1 17.3 15.6 16.2 16.0 Other structures....................... 7.1 7.3 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.7 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.7 6.5 Producers' durable equipment............. 476.1 526.4 571.0 620.5 459.3 467.7 480.6 496.8 515.6 526.3 526.5 537.2 Information processing and related equipment..................... 152.1 173.0 189.4 206.6 147.6 149.4 152.8 158.5 162.6 173.6 174.8 181.1 Computers and peripheral equipment........................... 51.8 64.9 74.4 81.1 49.9 50.6 51.5 55.1 56.1 64.1 66.6 72.8 Other................................ 100.3 108.1 114.9 125.5 97.7 98.8 101.2 103.4 106.4 109.6 108.2 108.3 Industrial equipment................... 109.3 123.8 131.7 138.6 105.4 107.0 110.8 114.0 119.3 124.8 125.8 125.3 Transportation and related equipment............................. 118.6 126.2 137.2 152.0 113.1 115.5 119.8 126.1 131.0 125.5 122.5 125.8 Other.................................. 96.2 103.4 112.7 123.3 93.3 95.8 97.3 98.3 102.7 102.3 103.5 105.1 Residential................................ 286.0 284.8 311.8 327.9 276.4 288.7 289.5 289.5 286.4 276.2 284.0 292.6 Stuctures................................ 279.1 277.5 304.3 319.9 269.7 281.9 282.5 282.3 279.2 269.0 276.6 285.3 Single family structures............... 153.8 145.0 159.1 164.4 150.4 156.9 155.0 153.0 149.2 140.1 142.4 148.3 Multifamily structures................. 14.1 17.9 20.3 22.6 11.7 13.3 15.1 16.2 17.2 17.1 18.4 18.9 Other.................................. 111.2 114.6 124.8 132.8 107.6 111.6 112.4 113.1 112.7 111.8 115.9 118.0 Producers' durable equipment............. 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.4 Change in business inventories............... 61.2 30.7 32.1 67.4 52.4 76.3 50.2 66.2 59.0 25.3 17.1 21.5 Farm....................................... 10.8 -9.3 7.6 4.3 13.4 15.3 10.1 4.2 -7.7 -14.1 -15.5 -.1 Nonfarm.................................... 50.5 40.1 24.5 63.1 38.9 60.9 40.1 62.0 66.7 39.4 32.6 21.6 Manufacturing............................ 11.3 12.0 12.8 21.4 15.3 10.4 9.3 10.4 16.9 13.1 12.7 5.4 Durable goods.......................... 8.5 9.2 9.9 12.5 9.4 12.2 5.6 7.0 8.6 7.5 12.0 8.6 Nondurable goods....................... 2.8 2.8 2.9 8.9 5.9 -1.8 3.7 3.5 8.3 5.6 .7 -3.3 Wholesale trade.......................... 15.9 13.8 3.7 23.3 4.0 17.8 15.8 26.1 21.2 12.6 15.1 6.1 Durable goods.......................... 11.4 13.4 4.3 13.8 2.0 17.8 10.2 15.5 19.2 10.9 9.2 14.2 Nondurable goods....................... 4.6 .4 -.6 9.5 2.0 .0 5.7 10.6 2.1 1.7 5.9 -8.1 Retail trade............................. 17.5 11.0 6.3 7.3 11.8 26.8 13.6 17.9 21.4 17.0 2.9 2.4 Durable goods.......................... 11.6 8.8 4.4 5.1 12.4 9.7 10.9 13.5 15.9 12.4 2.5 4.3 Motor vehicle dealers................ 6.4 5.3 2.2 1.3 9.8 .4 6.1 9.3 13.0 7.4 -5.6 6.4 Other................................ 5.3 3.5 2.2 3.9 2.5 9.4 4.8 4.3 2.9 5.0 8.1 -2.1 Nondurable goods....................... 5.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 -.5 17.1 2.6 4.4 5.6 4.6 .4 -1.9 Other.................................... 5.7 3.3 1.6 11.0 7.7 6.0 1.4 7.5 7.1 -3.4 1.8 7.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3a.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.............. 7495.3 7629.2 7703.4 7818.4 7955.0 8063.4 8170.8 8254.5 8384.2 8431.7 Personal consumption expenditures........ 5108.2 5199.0 5242.5 5313.2 5402.4 5438.8 5540.3 5593.2 5676.5 5771.0 Durable goods.......................... 632.3 647.3 642.5 651.1 668.9 659.9 681.2 682.2 705.1 718.2 Motor vehicles and parts............. 264.9 267.7 262.8 264.0 271.3 260.7 274.5 271.6 277.0 287.6 Furniture and household equipment........................... 248.9 257.1 257.2 260.8 266.6 269.2 273.8 276.0 288.5 288.7 Other................................ 118.5 122.6 122.6 126.3 131.0 130.0 132.8 134.6 139.6 141.8 Nondurable goods....................... 1506.8 1537.9 1543.6 1568.3 1589.7 1588.2 1611.3 1613.2 1633.1 1657.7 Food................................. 743.3 751.8 757.5 767.4 775.4 775.8 785.3 787.1 796.9 811.7 Clothing and shoes................... 260.1 267.3 266.5 268.8 274.8 275.6 280.9 280.7 291.0 296.2 Gasoline and oil..................... 118.8 127.5 123.4 128.3 130.7 123.7 125.7 125.9 116.2 111.2 Fuel oil and coal.................... 12.6 12.0 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.7 9.5 9.8 Other................................ 371.9 379.5 384.5 391.5 397.2 401.5 408.1 408.8 419.4 428.8 Services............................... 2969.0 3013.7 3056.3 3093.9 3143.9 3190.7 3247.9 3297.8 3338.2 3395.2 Housing.............................. 773.2 782.1 792.1 802.2 812.8 824.0 835.4 847.0 859.1 872.3 Household operation.................. 308.6 315.4 313.9 320.0 318.3 323.6 330.4 337.0 327.6 337.6 Electricity and gas................ 124.5 126.7 124.7 126.1 123.2 125.4 127.0 129.2 116.8 123.5 Other household operation.......... 184.1 188.8 189.3 193.9 195.2 198.1 203.4 207.8 210.9 214.1 Transportation....................... 213.5 219.9 224.5 231.1 234.4 238.4 242.2 246.3 249.5 253.5 Medical care......................... 792.6 803.7 809.7 821.3 829.3 837.7 848.7 857.9 871.5 883.3 Other................................ 881.2 892.5 916.0 919.3 949.1 967.1 991.3 1009.5 1030.5 1048.5 Gross private domestic investment........ 1075.3 1118.3 1167.9 1166.0 1206.4 1259.9 1265.7 1292.0 1366.6 1346.6 Fixed investment....................... 1059.1 1089.7 1118.1 1132.2 1146.7 1176.4 1211.1 1220.1 1271.1 1300.3 Nonresidential....................... 759.0 774.8 801.1 816.8 827.1 850.5 882.3 882.8 921.3 938.7 Structures......................... 206.5 211.3 218.0 232.1 236.2 234.3 243.8 246.4 245.0 243.7 Nonresidential buildings, including farm.................. 151.1 157.0 162.4 173.2 177.5 172.9 180.0 178.9 180.6 180.3 Utilities........................ 31.9 31.2 31.0 32.9 32.5 33.4 34.1 34.1 34.2 34.4 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells....................... 16.7 16.9 18.6 20.3 20.6 22.2 23.8 24.3 23.5 22.5 Other structures................. 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.1 9.2 6.6 6.4 Producers' durable equipment....... 552.6 563.5 583.1 584.8 591.0 616.2 638.5 636.4 676.3 695.1 Information processing and related equipment............... 185.0 185.2 192.7 194.6 197.1 202.6 213.0 213.6 226.5 232.1 Computers and peripheral equipment..................... 73.4 72.0 75.5 76.8 76.8 79.9 84.0 83.7 91.8 94.4 Other.......................... 111.5 113.2 117.2 117.8 120.3 122.7 129.0 129.9 134.7 137.8 Industrial equipment............. 129.6 133.1 131.7 132.3 132.7 138.9 140.7 142.1 145.4 146.5 Transportation and related equipment....................... 130.0 134.3 143.4 141.2 141.5 151.9 158.8 155.9 172.4 178.8 Other............................ 107.9 111.0 115.3 116.6 119.7 122.8 126.0 124.8 132.0 137.6 Residential.......................... 300.1 315.0 317.0 315.3 319.5 325.9 328.8 337.4 349.8 361.6 Stuctures.......................... 292.7 307.4 309.4 307.6 311.6 317.9 320.8 329.4 341.5 353.1 Single family structures......... 153.3 160.1 162.5 160.6 161.6 163.5 164.0 168.7 175.8 181.7 Multifamily structures........... 20.0 21.7 19.4 20.2 22.0 22.7 22.0 23.8 25.1 24.0 Other............................ 119.4 125.6 127.5 126.8 128.0 131.8 134.7 136.8 140.6 147.4 Producers' durable equipment....... 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.4 Change in business inventories......... 16.3 28.5 49.8 33.8 59.7 83.5 54.6 71.9 95.5 46.3 Farm................................. 5.0 12.7 9.7 3.1 -1.1 6.2 7.3 4.9 5.0 7.7 Nonfarm.............................. 11.2 15.9 40.1 30.7 60.8 77.2 47.3 66.9 90.5 38.6 Manufacturing...................... 17.9 -.8 18.0 16.1 21.7 28.4 16.9 18.7 31.8 27.6 Durable goods.................... 14.6 2.7 14.2 8.3 13.6 19.2 8.8 8.4 21.9 20.3 Nondurable goods................. 3.3 -3.5 3.9 7.8 8.0 9.2 8.0 10.4 9.9 7.2 Wholesale trade.................... 5.0 2.4 -3.0 10.5 24.4 29.9 17.5 21.5 28.1 20.4 Durable goods.................... 6.9 1.7 9.2 -.5 15.9 25.7 4.6 8.9 25.8 10.6 Nondurable goods................. -1.9 .8 -12.3 11.0 8.5 4.1 12.9 12.6 2.3 9.8 Retail trade....................... -12.6 13.3 21.2 3.4 -.5 6.5 5.5 17.8 18.3 -18.5 Durable goods.................... -11.5 14.2 16.0 -1.1 -.1 1.6 3.7 15.3 1.8 -20.7 Motor vehicle dealers.......... -15.7 12.0 15.0 -2.6 -3.6 -3.8 .8 11.7 -4.1 -15.3 Other.......................... 4.2 2.2 1.0 1.5 3.5 5.5 2.9 3.5 5.9 -5.4 Nondurable goods................. -1.2 -.9 5.1 4.5 -.4 4.9 1.7 2.5 16.5 2.2 Other.............................. 1.0 .9 3.9 .6 15.3 12.4 7.4 8.9 12.3 9.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3a.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services.............. -90.9 -83.9 -91.2 -93.4 -76.6 -87.9 -103.4 -95.6 -94.7 -108.0 -74.5 -58.4 Exports...................................... 721.2 819.4 873.8 965.4 678.5 710.1 732.6 763.7 787.8 803.4 835.1 851.5 Goods...................................... 509.6 583.8 618.3 688.3 475.7 499.2 518.9 544.6 563.1 574.2 593.3 604.8 Agricultural products.................... 47.1 57.2 61.5 58.4 43.5 43.7 47.2 53.9 55.6 54.9 58.5 59.9 Nonagricultural products................. 462.5 526.6 556.8 629.9 432.2 455.5 471.7 490.7 507.5 519.2 534.8 544.9 Services................................... 211.6 235.6 255.5 277.1 202.8 210.9 213.7 219.0 224.7 229.3 241.7 246.7 Imports...................................... 812.1 903.3 965.0 1058.8 755.1 797.9 836.0 859.2 882.5 911.4 909.6 909.9 Goods...................................... 676.8 757.6 809.0 888.3 622.4 663.8 699.2 721.7 740.3 766.1 762.5 761.6 Petroleum and products................... 51.3 56.2 72.7 71.8 41.9 51.5 60.6 51.1 52.3 59.4 57.7 55.2 Nonpetroleum products.................... 625.5 701.5 736.3 816.6 580.5 612.3 638.6 670.6 687.9 706.7 704.8 706.4 Services................................... 135.3 145.7 156.0 170.4 132.8 134.1 136.9 137.5 142.2 145.3 147.1 148.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.............................. 1313.0 1356.4 1405.2 1454.6 1291.0 1300.8 1332.3 1328.0 1344.1 1357.8 1362.3 1361.4 Federal...................................... 510.2 509.1 518.4 520.2 506.9 505.3 520.4 508.3 512.3 511.7 511.2 501.2 National defense........................... 349.2 344.4 351.0 346.0 344.9 348.5 359.7 343.6 346.1 348.1 345.5 337.9 Consumption expenditures................. 301.6 298.2 304.1 306.3 299.8 300.7 308.7 297.3 298.7 300.2 301.1 292.7 Gross investment......................... 47.6 46.2 46.9 39.7 45.1 47.7 51.1 46.3 47.4 47.9 44.5 45.2 Nondefense................................. 161.0 164.7 167.4 174.3 162.0 156.8 160.7 164.7 166.2 163.6 165.7 163.3 Consumption expenditures................. 141.6 144.7 146.8 154.2 142.6 138.5 141.8 143.5 144.3 144.5 146.1 143.8 Gross investment......................... 19.5 20.0 20.6 20.1 19.4 18.3 18.9 21.2 21.9 19.1 19.6 19.5 State and local.............................. 802.8 847.3 886.8 934.4 784.1 795.5 811.9 819.6 831.8 846.2 851.1 860.2 Consumption expenditures................. 663.8 695.2 724.7 758.8 651.6 659.2 668.6 676.0 684.8 693.5 698.4 704.2 Gross investment......................... 138.9 152.1 162.1 175.6 132.5 136.3 143.3 143.6 147.0 152.6 152.8 156.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product......................... 6947.0 7269.6 7661.6 8110.9 6794.3 6911.4 6986.5 7095.7 7170.8 7210.9 7304.8 7391.9 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world............................. 176.5 225.2 235.5 265.5 161.1 168.3 181.9 194.6 216.9 227.4 224.6 231.6 Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world............................. 168.3 207.6 223.1 273.5 144.2 159.3 176.1 193.5 198.4 205.0 216.2 210.9 Equals: Gross national product................. 6955.2 7287.1 7674.0 8102.9 6811.2 6920.3 6992.3 7096.8 7189.3 7233.3 7313.2 7412.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income................................ 5757.9 6072.1 6425.2 6784.0 5583.3 5733.1 5804.1 5911.2 5979.5 6030.3 6093.5 6185.0 Wage and salary disbursements................ 3240.7 3428.5 3631.1 3889.8 3138.3 3232.0 3266.9 3325.6 3368.2 3403.5 3449.4 3493.2 Other labor income........................... 405.0 401.6 387.0 392.9 399.5 403.7 406.9 409.8 407.1 403.6 400.3 395.6 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments................................. 471.6 488.1 527.7 551.2 463.9 474.7 471.6 476.1 478.6 482.4 489.8 501.5 Farm....................................... 36.9 22.4 38.9 35.5 46.4 38.8 33.2 29.1 22.8 20.4 19.1 27.4 Nonfarm.................................... 434.7 465.6 488.8 515.8 417.5 435.9 438.4 447.0 455.7 462.0 470.7 474.1 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment...................... 124.4 133.7 150.2 158.2 112.7 126.0 130.1 128.9 131.1 133.3 131.9 138.7 Personal dividend income..................... 171.0 192.8 248.2 260.3 159.1 166.8 174.5 183.6 185.0 186.7 191.8 207.9 Personal interest income..................... 668.1 704.9 719.4 747.3 641.4 656.4 674.1 700.4 702.3 701.5 702.6 713.2 Transfer payments to persons................. 954.7 1015.9 1068.0 1110.4 940.4 949.8 958.8 969.8 996.2 1011.2 1023.0 1033.1 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance................................... 277.5 293.6 306.3 326.2 272.0 276.2 278.8 282.9 288.9 291.9 295.3 298.1 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments........ 739.1 795.0 890.5 989.0 712.9 750.5 739.9 753.0 767.2 795.7 799.0 818.3 Equals: Disposable personal income............ 5018.9 5277.0 5534.7 5795.1 4870.5 4982.6 5064.2 5158.2 5212.3 5234.7 5294.5 5366.8 Less: Personal outlays........................ 4842.1 5097.2 5376.2 5674.1 4738.2 4803.3 4876.1 4950.7 4997.4 5070.6 5132.1 5188.8 Equals: Personal saving....................... 176.8 179.8 158.5 121.0 132.3 179.3 188.1 207.5 214.9 164.0 162.4 178.0 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.................... 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3a.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services........ -75.7 -94.0 -115.5 -79.6 -93.3 -86.8 -94.7 -98.8 -123.7 -166.7 Exports................................ 856.6 863.0 861.4 914.2 930.2 961.1 981.7 988.6 973.3 948.6 Goods................................ 609.9 609.5 612.6 641.2 661.4 682.9 700.2 708.9 694.5 666.8 Agricultural products.............. 64.2 61.6 59.3 60.8 58.7 57.3 57.3 60.5 56.4 52.7 Nonagricultural products........... 545.6 547.9 553.2 580.4 602.8 625.6 642.9 648.4 638.1 614.1 Services............................. 246.7 253.4 248.9 273.0 268.8 278.2 281.5 279.7 278.8 281.9 Imports................................ 932.3 957.0 976.9 993.8 1023.5 1047.9 1076.4 1087.4 1097.1 1115.3 Goods................................ 780.2 802.7 818.3 834.8 859.1 879.2 902.7 912.4 920.9 937.4 Petroleum and products............. 58.6 74.3 75.3 82.7 77.4 70.7 70.3 68.6 54.9 54.8 Nonpetroleum products.............. 721.6 728.4 743.0 752.1 781.7 808.4 832.4 843.8 865.9 882.6 Services............................. 152.1 154.2 158.6 159.0 164.4 168.7 173.6 174.9 176.2 177.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment........................ 1387.5 1406.0 1408.6 1418.8 1439.4 1451.5 1459.5 1468.1 1464.9 1480.7 Federal................................ 517.1 523.1 519.0 514.6 517.0 522.9 521.0 520.1 511.6 520.3 National defense..................... 350.3 355.6 351.3 346.7 341.1 349.1 347.1 346.5 331.6 339.2 Consumption expenditures........... 300.1 305.9 305.5 304.7 303.8 310.4 306.0 304.8 293.3 303.5 Gross investment................... 50.2 49.8 45.8 42.0 37.3 38.7 41.1 41.7 38.3 35.7 Nondefense........................... 166.8 167.4 167.7 167.9 175.9 173.8 173.9 173.6 180.0 181.1 Consumption expenditures........... 145.6 147.2 147.4 147.0 153.0 154.4 154.0 155.3 157.6 161.4 Gross investment................... 21.2 20.2 20.3 20.9 22.9 19.3 19.8 18.3 22.4 19.6 State and local........................ 870.4 882.9 889.6 904.2 922.4 928.6 938.5 947.9 953.3 960.4 Consumption expenditures........... 712.6 721.6 727.8 736.7 747.2 754.0 762.2 771.5 776.7 784.4 Gross investment................... 157.9 161.3 161.7 167.5 175.2 174.6 176.3 176.4 176.6 176.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product................... 7495.3 7629.2 7703.4 7818.4 7955.0 8063.4 8170.8 8254.5 8384.2 8431.7 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world....................... 229.7 229.3 234.7 248.2 253.1 268.3 274.3 266.3 270.3 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world....................... 210.0 215.2 229.5 237.6 255.6 269.4 283.0 285.9 285.1 ..... Equals: Gross national product........... 7515.0 7643.3 7708.6 7829.0 7952.4 8062.3 8162.0 8234.9 8369.4 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income.......................... 6284.3 6390.0 6476.7 6549.8 6666.7 6743.6 6820.9 6904.9 7003.9 7081.4 Wage and salary disbursements.......... 3532.7 3605.8 3664.2 3721.6 3798.5 3855.5 3915.5 3989.9 4061.9 4117.1 Other labor income..................... 387.9 387.5 386.4 386.0 389.7 391.5 393.6 397.0 402.8 405.6 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........................... 516.1 528.0 533.5 533.1 540.5 549.9 556.5 558.0 564.2 571.1 Farm................................. 34.8 41.0 43.2 36.7 36.4 37.8 36.3 31.4 27.4 26.4 Nonfarm.............................. 481.3 487.0 490.3 496.4 504.1 512.1 520.2 526.6 536.8 544.6 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................ 145.0 148.4 152.1 155.3 157.5 158.0 158.6 158.8 158.3 161.5 Personal dividend income............... 234.4 243.5 255.4 259.6 259.7 259.9 260.4 261.3 261.6 262.1 Personal interest income............... 713.5 715.9 721.5 726.8 740.1 745.7 750.5 753.0 757.0 762.4 Transfer payments to persons........... 1054.6 1065.5 1072.1 1079.7 1100.4 1106.8 1114.0 1120.5 1139.0 1146.8 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance............................. 299.8 304.6 308.5 312.4 319.5 323.7 328.2 333.6 340.9 345.0 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.. 849.7 893.3 899.4 919.7 955.6 975.8 999.0 1025.5 1066.8 1087.2 Equals: Disposable personal income...... 5434.6 5496.7 5577.3 5630.1 5711.2 5767.9 5821.8 5879.4 5937.1 5994.2 Less: Personal outlays.................. 5261.1 5356.2 5405.2 5482.5 5575.8 5616.0 5723.3 5781.2 5864.0 5958.9 Equals: Personal saving................. 173.5 140.5 172.2 147.6 135.4 151.9 98.5 98.2 73.0 35.3 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.............. 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 .6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3b.--Real Gross Domestic Product [Billions of chained (1992) dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.................... 6610.7 6761.7 6994.8 7269.8 6524.5 6600.3 6629.5 6688.6 6717.5 6724.2 6779.5 6825.8 Personal consumption expenditures.............. 4486.0 4605.6 4752.4 4913.5 4439.4 4472.2 4498.2 4534.1 4555.3 4593.6 4623.4 4650.0 Durable goods................................ 561.2 589.1 626.1 668.6 550.7 555.8 561.7 576.6 575.2 583.5 595.3 602.4 Motor vehicles and parts................... 230.0 230.6 235.0 239.3 231.6 228.4 227.3 232.6 227.4 229.5 232.6 232.8 Furniture and household equipment................................. 229.4 251.2 277.5 307.7 219.1 226.1 232.2 240.3 242.6 246.6 254.1 261.4 Other...................................... 102.3 109.0 117.1 127.7 100.0 101.6 102.9 104.5 106.5 108.7 110.3 110.5 Nondurable goods............................. 1389.9 1417.6 1450.9 1486.3 1378.4 1385.5 1393.2 1402.5 1410.4 1415.9 1418.5 1425.6 Food....................................... 687.9 689.5 692.6 699.3 684.3 689.8 687.9 689.5 689.5 689.6 688.9 690.0 Clothing and shoes......................... 247.1 260.1 276.1 288.4 243.1 242.7 248.1 254.7 256.4 258.4 262.1 263.5 Gasoline and oil........................... 109.8 114.3 116.0 117.9 109.2 109.6 109.9 110.7 113.5 114.2 114.3 115.3 Fuel oil and coal.......................... 10.7 11.2 11.2 10.3 11.9 10.2 10.7 10.2 10.4 11.4 11.3 11.7 Other...................................... 334.3 343.1 356.7 373.0 329.9 333.0 336.7 337.8 340.9 342.8 342.7 346.0 Services..................................... 2535.5 2599.6 2676.7 2761.5 2510.9 2531.4 2543.8 2555.9 2570.4 2594.8 2610.3 2622.9 Housing.................................... 674.3 688.6 700.9 717.4 666.8 672.2 677.0 681.1 684.9 687.0 689.7 692.7 Household operation........................ 270.5 280.6 291.4 301.3 263.1 274.1 272.3 272.4 272.8 279.6 286.0 283.8 Electricity and gas...................... 112.5 114.7 118.0 116.0 113.8 115.8 111.4 108.9 109.4 114.8 119.1 115.6 Other household operation................ 158.0 165.8 173.3 185.1 149.3 158.4 160.9 163.4 163.3 164.8 166.9 168.1 Transportation............................. 175.2 186.4 200.5 212.2 170.3 173.6 176.7 180.1 182.8 184.2 187.6 191.0 Medical care............................... 662.1 675.0 686.6 701.7 658.1 661.1 663.2 666.0 669.1 673.0 677.2 680.9 Other...................................... 754.0 769.8 798.6 830.5 753.0 750.9 755.1 756.9 761.4 771.7 770.7 775.3 Gross private domestic investment.............. 975.7 996.1 1084.1 1206.4 939.9 987.8 972.2 1003.0 1013.5 982.0 983.4 1005.4 Fixed investment............................. 915.5 966.0 1050.6 1138.0 887.8 913.2 922.7 938.5 957.1 957.8 965.8 983.1 Nonresidential............................. 648.4 710.6 776.6 859.4 626.2 641.2 653.2 672.9 698.4 710.2 711.7 722.3 Structures............................... 172.5 180.7 189.7 203.2 166.3 174.5 174.0 175.0 179.5 181.7 181.5 179.8 Nonresidential buildings, including farm........................ 119.9 128.8 141.0 150.5 114.3 123.1 120.6 121.8 126.1 129.5 129.3 130.4 Utilities.............................. 29.9 30.6 27.8 28.7 30.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 30.7 31.3 30.9 29.6 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................. 15.8 14.4 15.3 17.9 15.1 15.1 16.2 16.7 15.7 13.9 14.2 13.9 Other structures....................... 6.9 6.7 5.5 5.8 6.7 6.7 7.4 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 5.9 Producers' durable equipment............. 476.8 531.7 589.8 660.9 460.6 467.3 480.0 499.1 520.4 529.9 531.8 544.8 Information processing and related equipment..................... 165.1 201.5 245.4 298.0 158.1 160.8 166.1 175.6 183.7 199.2 205.2 217.7 Computers and peripheral equipment........................... 67.2 100.8 151.3 214.8 62.2 64.1 67.1 75.3 80.4 95.2 105.3 122.1 Other................................ 99.4 108.1 115.4 126.6 96.8 97.8 100.2 102.8 106.1 109.2 108.2 108.7 Industrial equipment................... 105.5 115.4 120.5 125.9 102.8 103.8 106.7 108.9 113.2 116.4 116.6 115.6 Transportation and related equipment............................. 113.2 119.4 127.6 140.3 108.8 110.0 113.5 120.5 125.3 119.1 115.3 118.0 Other.................................. 92.9 97.9 104.2 113.0 90.9 92.6 93.7 94.5 98.5 97.1 97.8 98.4 Residential................................ 267.0 256.8 275.9 282.8 261.3 271.5 269.4 265.9 259.9 249.5 255.6 262.1 Stuctures................................ 260.3 249.8 268.6 275.1 254.8 264.8 262.7 259.0 252.9 242.6 248.5 255.0 Single family structures............... 140.1 126.8 136.6 137.2 139.4 144.5 140.5 136.1 131.2 122.7 124.2 128.9 Multifamily structures................. 13.6 16.9 18.7 20.2 11.4 13.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.2 17.4 17.8 Other.................................. 106.5 106.6 113.8 118.5 103.8 107.2 107.6 107.6 105.7 104.2 107.6 108.8 Producers' durable equipment............. 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.1 Change in business inventories............... 60.6 27.7 30.0 63.2 53.1 75.9 49.7 63.6 54.3 21.7 14.7 20.1 Farm....................................... 11.7 -11.0 7.1 4.3 13.8 16.6 11.6 4.8 -9.5 -16.4 -17.1 -.8 Nonfarm.................................... 49.0 37.7 23.2 58.8 39.6 59.6 38.2 58.7 62.5 36.7 30.6 20.8 Manufacturing............................ 11.1 11.2 12.0 20.1 15.3 10.4 8.9 9.7 15.8 11.9 11.8 5.2 Durable goods.......................... 8.3 8.7 9.5 12.0 9.2 12.0 5.5 6.7 8.0 7.0 11.3 8.3 Nondurable goods....................... 2.8 2.6 2.6 8.1 6.1 -1.5 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.9 .6 -2.9 Wholesale trade.......................... 15.5 13.0 4.1 22.0 4.0 17.4 15.4 25.3 20.0 12.0 14.1 6.0 Durable goods.......................... 11.0 12.8 4.2 13.3 1.9 17.3 10.0 15.0 18.3 10.5 8.8 13.6 Nondurable goods....................... 4.5 .3 .1 8.7 2.2 .0 5.4 10.3 1.9 1.6 5.2 -7.3 Retail trade............................. 16.9 10.4 5.9 6.8 12.7 26.0 12.4 16.3 20.1 16.0 2.9 2.5 Durable goods.......................... 10.9 8.1 4.0 4.7 11.8 9.1 10.3 12.6 14.7 11.4 2.3 3.9 Motor vehicle dealers................ 5.9 4.7 1.9 1.1 9.3 .3 5.6 8.4 11.7 6.6 -5.0 5.6 Other................................ 5.0 3.3 2.1 3.6 2.4 9.0 4.6 4.1 2.7 4.8 7.6 -1.9 Nondurable goods....................... 5.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 .5 17.2 1.9 3.5 5.1 4.4 .6 -1.7 Other.................................... 5.5 3.1 1.3 9.9 7.6 5.8 1.5 7.3 6.8 -3.1 1.7 7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3b.--Real Gross Domestic Product--Continued [Billions of chained (1992) dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.............. 6882.0 6983.9 7020.0 7093.1 7166.7 7236.5 7311.2 7364.6 7464.7 7491.0 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4692.1 4746.6 4768.3 4802.6 4853.4 4872.7 4947.0 4981.0 5055.1 5126.5 Durable goods.......................... 611.0 629.5 626.5 637.5 656.3 653.8 679.6 684.8 710.3 727.4 Motor vehicles and parts............. 235.9 237.9 232.8 233.3 239.1 230.8 244.4 242.7 247.8 257.8 Furniture and household equipment........................... 265.0 277.7 280.0 287.2 296.2 303.7 312.7 318.1 335.8 339.0 Other................................ 112.3 117.0 117.6 121.5 125.8 125.9 128.5 130.8 135.1 138.0 Nondurable goods....................... 1433.5 1450.4 1454.7 1465.1 1477.9 1477.1 1495.7 1494.3 1521.2 1543.1 Food................................. 691.1 693.4 691.4 694.3 699.4 697.3 700.6 699.9 706.8 717.6 Clothing and shoes................... 268.0 276.4 279.8 280.3 286.0 283.3 291.9 292.3 307.4 312.3 Gasoline and oil..................... 114.7 116.2 116.0 117.0 116.7 118.3 118.4 118.1 118.5 118.1 Fuel oil and coal.................... 11.9 11.1 11.3 10.6 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.1 9.2 9.7 Other................................ 348.9 355.0 358.2 364.8 368.3 369.9 377.0 376.8 383.5 389.6 Services............................... 2648.5 2668.4 2688.1 2701.7 2722.1 2743.6 2775.4 2804.8 2829.3 2862.9 Housing.............................. 695.7 698.6 702.6 706.7 711.2 715.1 719.5 723.9 728.7 733.0 Household operation.................. 289.0 292.7 289.6 294.4 291.1 297.8 305.0 311.1 306.3 315.0 Electricity and gas................ 118.8 119.6 116.5 117.2 112.4 116.0 117.2 118.4 110.5 116.8 Other household operation.......... 170.2 173.0 173.0 177.1 178.6 181.6 187.7 192.5 195.6 198.0 Transportation....................... 195.5 199.1 202.1 205.3 208.6 210.7 213.7 215.9 217.9 222.4 Medical care......................... 679.5 685.6 687.7 693.5 694.8 698.6 704.2 709.4 714.9 720.5 Other................................ 790.1 793.8 807.3 803.1 817.5 823.0 834.8 846.6 862.9 874.0 Gross private domestic investment........ 1029.3 1072.8 1118.1 1116.1 1156.6 1211.3 1215.8 1241.9 1321.8 1309.1 Fixed investment....................... 1011.4 1043.5 1067.1 1080.4 1096.0 1127.0 1159.3 1169.5 1224.9 1260.0 Nonresidential....................... 744.8 764.4 790.1 807.0 820.9 848.2 882.2 886.2 931.9 957.5 Structures......................... 182.6 185.9 189.9 200.6 202.5 199.3 205.2 205.7 203.1 200.8 Nonresidential buildings, including farm.................. 133.9 138.3 141.6 150.2 152.8 147.8 152.0 149.5 150.1 148.7 Utilities........................ 28.3 27.5 27.1 28.4 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells....................... 14.4 14.4 15.6 16.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 18.9 17.9 17.0 Other structures................. 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.2 7.8 5.6 5.5 Producers' durable equipment....... 565.0 581.6 604.0 608.8 621.0 653.8 682.6 686.4 738.8 769.7 Information processing and related equipment............... 229.5 238.0 253.1 260.9 271.8 288.1 311.5 320.7 353.4 377.7 Computers and peripheral equipment..................... 133.6 142.6 158.5 170.7 182.5 203.9 229.9 242.9 292.2 330.8 Other.......................... 111.9 113.7 117.9 118.2 121.1 123.7 130.0 131.5 136.7 140.4 Industrial equipment............. 119.1 122.0 120.4 120.6 120.8 126.4 127.7 128.6 131.5 132.3 Transportation and related equipment....................... 121.9 125.0 132.7 130.8 131.1 140.5 145.9 143.8 159.6 165.8 Other............................ 100.4 103.1 106.4 106.9 109.8 112.4 115.6 114.1 120.2 125.1 Residential.......................... 268.0 280.2 279.0 276.3 278.4 282.5 282.3 287.9 298.5 307.9 Stuctures.......................... 261.0 272.9 271.7 268.9 270.9 274.9 274.5 280.1 290.5 299.8 Single family structures......... 133.0 138.5 138.6 136.3 136.3 137.2 136.1 139.0 145.2 150.0 Multifamily structures........... 18.7 20.1 17.7 18.3 19.8 20.3 19.5 21.0 22.1 21.2 Other............................ 109.8 114.8 115.9 114.8 115.3 118.0 119.7 120.9 123.8 129.2 Producers' durable equipment....... 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 Change in business inventories......... 14.4 26.1 47.5 32.1 56.3 79.0 51.0 66.5 91.4 44.7 Farm................................. 4.3 11.6 9.2 3.3 -.5 6.8 7.3 3.7 5.3 8.4 Nonfarm.............................. 10.4 15.2 38.6 28.7 56.2 72.1 44.0 62.7 85.9 36.6 Manufacturing...................... 16.7 -.6 16.8 15.1 20.0 26.7 15.8 17.7 30.2 26.2 Durable goods.................... 13.8 2.6 13.5 8.0 13.0 18.4 8.4 8.1 21.0 19.6 Nondurable goods................. 3.0 -3.0 3.4 7.0 7.0 8.4 7.4 9.5 9.2 6.8 Wholesale trade.................... 4.9 2.8 -1.3 10.1 22.8 28.3 16.7 20.2 27.0 19.6 Durable goods.................... 6.6 1.6 8.8 -.4 15.3 24.9 4.5 8.6 25.1 10.3 Nondurable goods................. -1.5 1.2 -9.5 10.1 7.6 3.9 11.8 11.4 2.3 9.2 Retail trade....................... -11.9 12.4 19.8 3.1 -.6 6.0 5.0 16.9 17.3 -17.5 Durable goods.................... -10.4 12.9 14.5 -1.0 -.1 1.4 3.4 14.1 1.6 -19.1 Motor vehicle dealers.......... -13.9 10.6 13.2 -2.3 -3.2 -3.5 .7 10.5 -3.7 -13.9 Other.......................... 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.4 3.3 5.1 2.7 3.3 5.5 -5.1 Nondurable goods................. -1.2 -.9 5.0 4.3 -.5 4.7 1.6 2.5 16.1 2.1 Other.............................. .5 .7 3.4 .6 13.7 11.1 6.5 8.1 11.5 8.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3b.--Real Gross Domestic Product--Continued [Billions of chained (1992) dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services.............. -104.6 -96.5 -111.2 -136.1 -97.6 -103.9 -111.1 -105.9 -109.5 -114.7 -86.8 -74.8 Exports...................................... 712.4 792.6 860.0 970.0 676.0 704.1 722.1 747.3 763.9 774.0 806.3 826.1 Goods...................................... 509.8 573.7 629.4 726.5 479.1 501.2 518.4 540.4 552.4 561.0 582.4 598.9 Agricultural products.................... 44.4 49.5 48.5 49.3 40.4 41.2 45.2 50.7 50.9 49.1 49.7 48.5 Nonagricultural products................. 465.6 524.4 582.5 681.1 439.0 460.4 473.3 489.5 501.3 511.9 533.0 551.3 Services................................... 202.9 219.5 231.8 247.0 197.0 203.1 204.1 207.5 212.1 213.6 224.4 227.9 Imports...................................... 817.0 889.0 971.2 1106.1 773.6 808.0 833.2 853.2 873.4 888.7 893.1 900.9 Goods...................................... 684.1 749.7 824.7 945.7 641.4 674.6 700.0 720.4 734.2 750.8 754.1 759.9 Petroleum and products................... 60.2 59.3 63.8 66.7 57.0 60.6 65.1 58.2 56.4 58.5 62.6 59.6 Nonpetroleum products.................... 623.4 689.1 759.4 878.3 584.0 613.6 634.8 661.1 676.4 691.0 690.0 699.1 Services................................... 133.2 139.7 147.3 161.8 132.3 133.6 133.5 133.2 139.6 138.4 139.5 141.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.............................. 1252.3 1254.5 1268.2 1285.0 1241.9 1243.3 1268.1 1255.8 1256.2 1259.9 1257.6 1244.5 Federal...................................... 486.6 470.6 465.6 458.0 487.2 481.2 496.4 481.7 478.6 476.2 473.1 454.6 National defense........................... 336.9 323.5 319.1 308.9 335.1 335.9 347.0 329.6 328.3 328.4 323.9 313.3 Consumption expenditures................. 292.2 281.1 276.6 272.4 292.4 291.5 298.7 286.2 284.3 284.6 283.1 272.4 Gross investment......................... 44.8 42.4 42.6 36.5 42.9 44.5 48.3 43.4 44.1 43.9 40.8 40.9 Nondefense................................. 149.5 146.9 146.2 148.6 151.9 145.1 149.4 151.7 150.0 147.6 148.8 141.1 Consumption expenditures................. 130.4 127.5 126.1 128.7 132.7 127.1 130.8 131.1 128.8 129.0 129.9 122.3 Gross investment......................... 19.0 19.3 20.2 19.8 19.1 18.0 18.4 20.7 21.2 18.4 18.9 18.8 State and local.............................. 765.7 783.9 802.7 827.1 754.7 762.2 771.7 774.1 777.6 783.7 784.5 790.0 Consumption expenditures................. 633.4 644.0 656.8 672.3 627.2 631.6 635.9 639.0 641.0 642.8 644.3 647.8 Gross investment......................... 132.2 139.9 145.8 154.8 127.6 130.6 135.8 135.0 136.6 140.9 140.1 142.1 Residual....................................... -3.1 -13.1 -41.3 -82.0 -2.9 -4.2 -1.8 -4.9 -4.3 -7.8 -14.8 -26.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product......................... 6610.7 6761.7 6994.8 7269.8 6524.5 6600.3 6629.5 6688.6 6717.5 6724.2 6779.5 6825.8 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world............................. 168.4 209.9 214.8 238.0 155.3 161.3 173.0 184.2 203.9 212.4 208.9 214.3 Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world............................. 160.0 191.9 200.9 240.7 139.3 152.3 166.9 181.4 185.3 190.1 199.1 193.1 Equals: Gross national product................. 6619.1 6779.5 7008.4 7266.2 6540.5 6609.3 6635.6 6691.2 6735.9 6746.3 6788.9 6846.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Addendum: Disposable personal income..................... 4772.9 4906.0 5043.0 5183.1 4683.6 4760.9 4795.2 4852.1 4883.0 4876.0 4909.1 4956.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3b.--Real Gross Domestic Product--Continued [Billions of chained (1992) dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services........ -95.5 -113.5 -140.1 -95.9 -121.5 -131.6 -142.4 -149.0 -198.5 -252.9 Exports................................ 833.6 845.5 849.9 911.1 929.4 963.6 988.1 998.8 991.9 971.3 Goods................................ 608.9 615.0 626.4 667.4 691.4 719.1 740.6 754.9 748.5 724.3 Agricultural products.............. 51.0 46.2 46.0 50.8 48.6 47.6 48.6 52.2 50.9 48.2 Nonagricultural products........... 558.5 570.6 582.5 618.4 645.9 675.6 696.3 706.4 701.5 680.1 Services............................. 225.6 231.2 225.3 244.9 240.7 247.5 251.1 248.6 247.8 249.8 Imports................................ 929.1 958.9 990.0 1007.0 1050.9 1095.2 1130.5 1147.8 1190.4 1224.2 Goods................................ 785.0 813.5 841.3 859.0 896.8 937.4 966.7 981.8 1021.0 1055.3 Petroleum and products............. 58.1 66.2 66.8 64.3 62.9 68.1 69.1 66.9 68.3 75.4 Nonpetroleum products.............. 725.6 745.6 772.9 793.6 833.4 868.5 896.9 914.5 952.2 980.1 Services............................. 144.5 146.0 149.5 149.0 155.3 159.2 165.2 167.5 171.3 171.6 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment........................ 1254.5 1276.2 1271.1 1271.2 1277.7 1284.4 1288.9 1289.2 1283.0 1294.8 Federal................................ 463.5 472.6 467.0 459.5 456.3 460.4 458.9 456.5 446.1 453.8 National defense..................... 318.7 325.0 319.8 313.0 305.0 311.7 310.2 308.7 293.3 300.0 Consumption expenditures........... 275.0 279.3 277.4 274.6 270.8 276.2 272.3 270.0 257.9 266.7 Gross investment................... 43.8 45.8 42.5 38.4 34.1 35.4 37.9 38.7 35.4 33.1 Nondefense........................... 144.5 147.3 146.8 146.1 150.7 148.2 148.2 147.3 151.9 153.0 Consumption expenditures........... 124.0 127.5 127.0 125.7 128.5 129.0 128.5 129.0 130.0 133.3 Gross investment................... 20.5 19.8 19.9 20.4 22.5 19.1 19.6 18.1 22.2 19.5 State and local........................ 791.0 803.6 804.2 811.8 821.5 824.2 830.1 832.9 837.1 841.2 Consumption expenditures........... 648.1 657.9 659.1 662.2 665.9 670.1 674.7 678.5 682.8 687.4 Gross investment................... 142.9 145.7 145.1 149.6 155.5 154.0 155.3 154.3 154.2 153.8 Residual................................. -30.5 -36.0 -44.9 -53.3 -60.9 -75.7 -91.2 -98.5 -135.2 -150.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product................... 6882.0 6983.9 7020.0 7093.1 7166.7 7236.5 7311.2 7364.6 7464.7 7491.0 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world....................... 211.1 209.9 213.5 224.5 227.8 241.0 245.6 237.6 241.0 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world....................... 190.8 194.6 206.1 212.0 226.1 237.5 248.9 250.5 249.6 ..... Equals: Gross national product........... 6902.1 6999.0 7027.1 7105.3 7167.8 7239.3 7307.0 7350.7 7455.2 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Addendum: Disposable personal income............... 4992.0 5018.4 5072.8 5089.0 5130.8 5167.5 5198.4 5235.8 5287.1 5324.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.......... 105.87 108.28 112.02 116.42 104.49 105.70 106.17 107.11 107.58 107.68 108.57 109.31 Chain-type price index............. 105.09 107.51 109.54 111.57 104.16 104.74 105.39 106.07 106.74 107.26 107.76 108.30 Implicit price deflator............ 105.09 107.51 109.53 111.57 104.13 104.71 105.39 106.09 106.75 107.24 107.75 108.29 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index.................... 106.31 109.14 112.62 116.44 105.21 105.98 106.60 107.45 107.95 108.86 109.57 110.19 Chain-type price index....................... 105.15 107.56 109.75 111.81 104.00 104.68 105.61 106.31 106.75 107.38 107.85 108.28 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.................. 114.87 120.59 128.16 136.86 112.72 113.77 114.99 118.02 117.74 119.44 121.86 123.30 Chain-type price index..................... 103.27 103.72 102.75 100.66 102.28 103.02 103.85 103.94 104.05 103.94 103.60 103.30 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.................. 105.15 107.24 109.77 112.44 104.28 104.81 105.40 106.10 106.70 107.11 107.31 107.85 Chain-type price index..................... 102.77 103.96 106.08 107.69 101.90 102.23 103.31 103.64 103.49 103.89 104.11 104.34 Services: Chain-type quantity index.................. 105.23 107.89 111.09 114.61 104.21 105.06 105.58 106.08 106.68 107.69 108.34 108.86 Chain-type price index..................... 106.85 110.37 113.32 116.61 105.50 106.37 107.24 108.27 109.11 110.03 110.82 111.52 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index.................... 116.86 123.30 134.10 145.25 113.32 116.56 117.78 119.79 122.17 122.26 123.28 125.49 Chain-type price index....................... 103.40 104.81 104.68 104.45 102.64 103.19 103.71 104.04 104.45 104.95 104.93 104.92 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.................. 116.22 127.38 139.21 154.04 112.25 114.94 117.08 120.62 125.19 127.30 127.58 129.47 Chain-type price index..................... 101.89 102.40 101.46 100.15 101.36 101.89 102.20 102.12 102.16 102.66 102.49 102.28 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.................. 118.39 113.85 122.32 125.36 115.84 120.37 119.44 117.90 115.21 110.63 113.33 116.22 Chain-type price index..................... 107.11 110.90 113.03 115.96 105.79 106.36 107.45 108.83 110.19 110.68 111.10 111.64 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index.................... 111.41 123.95 134.50 151.70 105.73 110.12 112.93 116.88 119.47 121.05 126.10 129.20 Chain-type price index....................... 101.24 103.39 101.60 99.53 100.44 100.99 101.40 102.11 103.13 103.99 103.52 102.92 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index.................... 122.13 132.90 145.19 165.35 115.65 120.79 124.56 127.54 130.57 132.85 133.51 134.67 Chain-type price index....................... 99.39 101.61 99.36 95.72 97.64 98.87 100.34 100.72 101.09 102.79 101.78 100.77 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index.................... 99.09 99.27 100.35 101.68 98.27 98.38 100.35 99.37 99.40 99.70 99.51 98.48 Chain-type price index....................... 104.85 108.12 110.80 113.20 103.95 104.61 105.07 105.75 107.00 107.76 108.34 109.38 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.................. 92.17 89.14 88.19 86.75 92.28 91.13 94.02 91.23 90.65 90.20 89.60 86.10 Chain-type price index..................... 104.84 108.17 111.35 113.58 104.04 104.97 104.83 105.53 107.02 107.39 108.07 110.21 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.................. 104.06 106.55 109.09 112.42 102.57 103.59 104.89 105.21 105.69 106.51 106.62 107.37 Chain-type price index..................... 104.85 108.09 110.48 112.96 103.90 104.39 105.21 105.89 106.98 107.98 108.50 108.89 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.................. 105.03 107.92 111.61 115.49 103.78 104.64 105.50 106.21 106.80 107.42 108.41 109.07 Chain-type price index..................... 105.11 107.54 109.59 111.66 104.17 104.75 105.41 106.09 106.75 107.28 107.78 108.33 Implicit price deflator.................... 105.11 107.53 109.59 111.66 104.15 104.73 105.41 106.11 106.76 107.25 107.78 108.34 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.................. 106.99 109.26 113.18 117.89 105.52 106.82 107.39 108.25 108.76 108.94 109.40 109.95 Chain-type price index..................... 104.85 107.28 109.18 110.92 103.80 104.46 105.24 105.88 106.47 107.11 107.52 107.99 Implicit price deflator.................... 104.84 107.27 109.18 110.92 103.79 104.44 105.23 105.89 106.48 107.09 107.52 108.00 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.................. 105.81 108.38 112.04 116.16 104.56 105.66 106.08 106.97 107.68 107.85 108.53 109.45 Chain-type price index..................... 105.08 107.49 109.51 111.51 104.16 104.73 105.38 106.05 106.72 107.24 107.73 108.27 Implicit price deflator.................... 105.08 107.49 109.50 111.52 104.14 104.71 105.38 106.06 106.73 107.22 107.72 108.26 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product-Continue [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.... 110.21 111.84 112.42 113.59 114.77 115.89 117.08 117.94 119.54 119.96 Chain-type price index....... 108.90 109.28 109.77 110.21 110.97 111.45 111.77 112.09 112.33 112.57 Implicit price deflator...... 108.91 109.24 109.74 110.23 111.00 111.43 111.76 112.08 112.32 112.56 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index.............. 111.19 112.48 113.00 113.81 115.02 115.47 117.23 118.04 119.79 121.49 Chain-type price index................. 108.87 109.56 109.95 110.62 111.31 111.63 112.00 112.30 112.30 112.58 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index............ 125.06 128.86 128.24 130.50 134.34 133.82 139.12 140.17 145.39 148.90 Chain-type price index............... 103.47 102.92 102.54 102.06 101.84 100.96 100.23 99.62 99.27 98.72 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index............ 108.45 109.73 110.05 110.84 111.81 111.75 113.16 113.05 115.09 116.74 Chain-type price index............... 105.12 106.04 106.12 107.05 107.57 107.52 107.72 107.95 107.35 107.42 Services: Chain-type quantity index............ 109.92 110.75 111.57 112.13 112.98 113.87 115.19 116.41 117.42 118.82 Chain-type price index............... 112.11 112.95 113.71 114.51 115.50 116.30 117.04 117.59 118.00 118.61 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index.............. 129.10 133.20 136.21 137.91 139.90 143.85 147.98 149.28 156.36 160.83 Chain-type price index................. 104.72 104.55 104.76 104.70 104.53 104.40 104.50 104.37 103.81 103.24 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index............ 133.50 137.02 141.64 144.66 147.14 152.04 158.13 158.86 167.04 171.63 Chain-type price index............... 101.89 101.50 101.37 101.09 100.65 100.28 100.04 99.64 98.90 98.08 Residential: Chain-type quantity index............ 118.84 124.24 123.71 122.48 123.41 125.26 125.14 127.64 132.34 136.51 Chain-type price index............... 111.95 112.41 113.61 114.14 114.80 115.35 116.50 117.20 117.21 117.44 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 130.37 132.23 132.92 142.48 145.35 150.70 154.53 156.21 155.12 151.91 Chain-type price index................. 102.62 102.19 101.35 100.26 100.01 99.76 99.36 98.97 98.13 97.66 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 138.88 143.35 147.99 150.53 157.10 163.72 169.00 171.59 177.95 183.00 Chain-type price index................. 100.32 99.94 98.62 98.55 97.45 95.66 95.16 94.62 92.05 90.99 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index.............. 99.27 100.98 100.58 100.59 101.10 101.63 101.99 102.01 101.53 102.45 Chain-type price index................. 110.53 110.21 110.86 111.61 112.67 113.01 113.24 113.87 114.17 114.36 Federal: Chain-type quantity index............ 87.78 89.51 88.45 87.02 86.43 87.20 86.92 86.46 84.50 85.94 Chain-type price index............... 111.36 110.76 111.26 112.00 113.32 113.57 113.52 113.91 114.66 114.64 State and local: Chain-type quantity index............ 107.51 109.22 109.30 110.33 111.65 112.01 112.82 113.19 113.77 114.33 Chain-type price index............... 110.05 109.89 110.61 111.37 112.28 112.68 113.07 113.83 113.89 114.18 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index............ 110.04 111.50 111.75 113.15 113.96 114.72 116.33 116.95 118.20 119.32 Chain-type price index............... 108.94 109.33 109.83 110.28 111.04 111.53 111.87 112.19 112.45 112.69 Implicit price deflator.............. 108.97 109.29 109.80 110.30 111.07 111.52 111.85 112.17 112.43 112.67 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index............ 111.16 113.05 114.00 114.52 116.06 117.30 118.63 119.57 121.85 123.01 Chain-type price index............... 108.56 108.94 109.34 109.90 110.51 110.76 111.06 111.34 111.29 111.41 Implicit price deflator.............. 108.56 108.89 109.32 109.92 110.53 110.74 111.05 111.35 111.29 111.42 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index............ 110.34 111.89 112.33 113.58 114.58 115.73 116.81 117.51 119.18 ..... Chain-type price index............... 108.87 109.24 109.74 110.17 110.91 111.39 111.72 112.04 112.28 ..... Implicit price deflator.............. 108.88 109.21 109.70 110.19 110.95 111.37 111.70 112.03 112.26 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.4 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.8 3.0 2.3 3.2 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 3.7 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 1.6 6.2 2.8 6.1 5.8 Durable goods........................ 6.4 3.8 4.3 11.0 -1.0 5.9 8.3 4.8 5.8 12.7 -1.9 7.2 12.3 -1.5 16.8 3.1 15.8 10.0 Nondurable goods..................... 5.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.3 1.6 .7 2.0 2.2 4.8 1.2 2.9 3.6 -.2 5.1 -.4 7.4 5.9 Services............................. 2.7 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.3 3.8 2.4 1.9 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.1 3.2 4.7 4.3 3.5 4.8 Gross private domestic fixed investment 3.2 11.9 4.2 7.0 8.2 .3 3.4 7.3 12.0 13.3 9.3 5.1 5.9 11.8 12.0 3.6 20.4 11.9 Nonresidential....................... .4 9.9 7.7 12.6 16.0 6.9 .9 6.1 13.1 11.0 14.2 8.8 7.0 14.0 17.0 1.8 22.2 11.4 Structures......................... -14.8 21.1 -1.1 2.3 10.7 5.1 -.4 -3.8 6.4 7.4 8.9 24.5 3.9 -6.2 12.4 .9 -4.9 -4.5 Producers' durable equipment....... 7.0 5.9 11.4 16.9 18.1 7.6 1.4 10.1 15.7 12.3 16.2 3.2 8.3 22.8 18.8 2.2 34.3 17.8 Residential.......................... 10.0 16.6 -3.1 -5.0 -8.8 -15.0 10.1 10.6 9.3 19.5 -1.7 -3.9 3.1 6.1 -.4 8.2 15.6 13.2 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... -1.8 17.7 10.6 14.7 9.2 5.4 17.8 10.2 3.7 5.8 2.1 32.0 8.3 15.5 10.6 4.4 -2.8 -8.0 Imports of goods and services.......... 7.6 19.0 13.1 9.9 9.8 7.2 2.0 3.5 13.1 13.5 13.6 7.0 18.6 17.9 13.5 6.3 15.7 11.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -4.0 .4 8.2 -3.8 .1 1.2 -.8 -4.1 3.2 7.1 -1.6 .0 2.1 2.1 1.4 .1 -1.9 3.7 Federal.............................. -10.7 -4.9 13.3 -11.3 -2.6 -2.0 -2.6 -14.7 8.0 8.1 -4.7 -6.3 -2.7 3.6 -1.2 -2.1 -8.8 7.0 National defense................... -16.7 1.0 13.8 -18.6 -1.6 .1 -5.4 -12.5 7.2 8.1 -6.3 -8.3 -9.9 9.1 -1.8 -2.0 -18.5 9.4 Nondefense......................... 3.9 -16.6 12.2 6.5 -4.6 -6.2 3.3 -19.2 9.9 8.1 -1.3 -2.0 13.3 -6.4 -.1 -2.3 13.1 2.8 State and local...................... .7 4.0 5.1 1.2 1.8 3.2 .4 2.8 .5 6.5 .3 3.8 4.9 1.3 2.9 1.3 2.1 2.0 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.3 3.7 2.5 3.6 5.4 .9 5.1 2.9 2.7 5.8 2.1 4.3 3.9 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 .4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.4 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 4.2 1.9 4.1 3.9 Durable goods........................ .5 .3 .3 .9 -.1 .5 .7 .4 .5 1.0 -.2 .6 1.0 -.1 1.3 .3 1.2 .8 Nondurable goods..................... 1.0 .4 .5 .5 .5 .3 .2 .4 .4 1.0 .2 .6 .7 .0 1.0 -.1 1.4 1.1 Services............................. 1.0 1.3 .8 .7 .9 1.5 1.0 .8 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 Gross private domestic fixed investment .4 1.5 .6 .9 1.1 .1 .5 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.3 .7 .8 1.6 1.7 .5 2.8 1.7 Nonresidential....................... .0 .9 .7 1.1 1.5 .7 .1 .6 1.3 1.1 1.4 .9 .7 1.4 1.7 .2 2.2 1.2 Structures......................... -.4 .5 .0 .1 .3 .1 .0 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .6 .1 -.2 .3 .0 -.1 -.1 Producers' durable equipment....... .5 .4 .7 1.1 1.2 .5 .1 .7 1.1 .9 1.1 .2 .6 1.6 1.3 .1 2.4 1.3 Residential.......................... .4 .6 -.1 -.2 -.4 -.6 .4 . .4 .7 -.1 -.2 .1 .2 .0 .3 .6 .5 Change in business inventories......... 1.8 1.4 -1.5 .9 -.5 -1.8 -.4 .3 -.3 .6 1.2 -.8 1.3 1.3 -1.4 .8 1.2 -2.3 Exports of goods and services.......... -.2 1.7 1.0 1.4 .9 .5 1.8 1.1 .4 .7 .2 3.2 .9 1.8 1.2 .5 -.3 -1.0 Imports of goods and services.......... -.8 -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -.8 -.2 -.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -.9 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 -.8 -1.9 -1.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.8 .1 1.5 -.7 .0 .2 -.1 -.8 .6 1.3 -.3 .0 .4 .4 .2 .0 -.3 .6 Federal.............................. -.9 -.4 .9 -.9 -.2 -.1 -.2 -1.1 .5 .5 -.3 -.4 -.2 .2 -.1 -.1 -.6 .4 National defense................... -1.0 .0 .7 -1.0 -.1 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 .4 -.3 -.4 -.5 .4 -.1 -.1 -.8 .4 Nondefense......................... .1 -.4 .3 .1 -.1 -.1 .1 -.5 .2 .2 .0 .0 .3 -.1 .0 -.1 .3 .1 State and local...................... .1 .5 .6 .1 .2 .4 .0 .3 .1 .7 .0 .4 .6 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.0 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.2 3.5 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.7 3.7 4.2 5.2 Durable goods........................ 9.2 7.0 6.0 6.3 4.5 5.0 6.0 4.5 6.2 7.9 5.2 5.8 7.4 3.9 8.5 7.4 8.2 11.3 Nondurable goods..................... 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 1.8 2.8 2.0 2.9 4.5 Services............................. 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.3 Gross private domestic fixed investment 9.0 9.9 9.3 6.6 7.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 8.9 10.5 9.9 8.4 8.0 8.6 8.2 11.8 11.8 Nonresidential....................... 8.4 7.8 8.5 7.6 11.5 10.8 9.0 7.3 6.6 7.6 11.0 11.7 10.2 11.0 11.6 9.8 13.5 12.9 Structures......................... -1.0 2.4 1.3 1.1 7.9 4.2 4.3 2.7 1.7 2.3 4.6 11.6 10.9 7.2 8.1 2.5 .3 .7 Producers' durable equipment....... 12.4 10.0 11.5 10.2 13.0 13.4 10.8 9.1 8.6 9.8 13.6 11.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 12.7 19.0 17.7 Residential.......................... 10.2 15.0 11.2 4.2 -.5 -8.1 -5.1 -1.4 3.1 12.3 9.2 5.4 3.9 .8 1.2 4.2 7.2 9.0 Exports of goods and services.......... 4.4 6.7 11.7 10.0 13.0 9.9 11.7 10.5 9.1 9.2 5.4 10.3 11.5 14.0 16.3 9.6 6.7 .8 Imports of goods and services.......... 10.2 11.8 14.2 12.3 12.9 10.0 7.2 5.6 6.4 7.9 10.8 11.8 13.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.3 11.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.7 -.8 1.4 .1 1.1 1.3 -.8 -.9 -.1 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.8 .6 1.4 1.4 .4 .8 Federal.............................. -4.9 -5.3 -1.0 -3.9 -1.8 -1.0 -4.7 -5.6 -3.2 -.8 -1.3 1.1 -1.5 -2.6 -1.7 -.6 -2.2 -1.4 National defense................... -6.7 -5.8 -1.2 -6.0 -2.0 -2.3 -6.7 -5.0 -2.9 -1.0 -1.3 -.1 -4.3 -4.1 -3.0 -1.4 -3.8 -3.8 Nondefense......................... -.7 -4.0 -.6 .9 -1.2 1.7 -.4 -7.0 -3.7 -.2 -1.3 3.5 4.3 .6 .9 .9 .8 3.2 State and local...................... 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.8 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.8 2.6 3.2 2.6 1.9 2.1 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.8 3.1 3.7 3.6 2.9 4.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 .7 .6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... -.3 2.3 -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.3 3.4 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures...... -.3 1.2 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 Durable goods........................ -8.0 1.2 -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 5.0 6.3 6.8 Nondurable goods..................... -.4 .9 .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 Services............................. 1.9 1.5 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.2 Gross private domestic fixed investment -6.8 1.9 -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.5 8.8 8.3 Nonresidential....................... -.5 5.3 -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.6 9.3 10.7 Structures......................... 6.7 7.9 -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.8 5.0 7.1 Producers' durable equipment....... -4.4 3.7 -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 10.9 12.1 Residential.......................... -21.1 -8.0 -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 7.4 2.5 Exports of goods and services.......... 10.8 1.2 -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.3 8.5 12.8 Imports of goods and services.......... -6.7 2.6 -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.8 9.2 13.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1.8 .7 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .2 1.1 1.3 Federal.............................. 4.2 4.2 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 National defense................... 3.6 5.4 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.0 -1.3 -3.2 Nondefense......................... 5.6 1.1 -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.8 -.5 1.7 State and local...................... .0 -2.0 -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.1 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... .6 1.1 -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.5 Gross domestic purchases price index. 10.7 9.2 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6.--Corporate Profits [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments........... 570.5 672.4 750.4 817.9 512.0 562.0 590.1 617.7 629.3 653.9 698.6 707.8 Profits before tax......................... 535.1 635.6 680.2 734.4 475.1 525.3 556.2 583.9 610.5 629.4 650.8 651.8 Profits tax liability.................... 186.6 211.0 226.1 246.1 163.0 182.8 194.6 206.2 202.9 207.6 219.1 214.3 Profits after tax........................ 348.5 424.6 454.1 488.3 312.1 342.5 361.6 377.7 407.6 421.9 431.6 437.5 Dividends.............................. 182.4 205.3 261.9 275.1 170.2 178.1 186.0 195.3 197.1 199.0 204.4 220.7 Undistributed profits.................. 166.1 219.3 192.3 213.2 141.9 164.4 175.6 182.4 210.5 222.8 227.2 216.8 Inventory valuation adjustment............. -16.1 -22.6 -1.2 6.9 -4.3 -15.1 -21.2 -23.6 -37.9 -33.9 -13.4 -5.3 Capital consumption adjustment............. 51.4 59.4 71.4 76.6 41.2 51.8 55.1 57.4 56.7 58.3 61.2 61.3 Addenda: Net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments......... 613.8 687.2 714.4 774.1 604.0 604.0 617.7 629.4 648.9 675.1 709.2 715.4 Undistributed profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................... 201.4 256.1 262.4 296.7 178.7 201.2 209.5 216.2 229.3 247.3 275.0 272.7 Consumption of fixed capital............... 412.3 431.1 452.0 477.3 425.3 402.8 408.2 413.1 419.6 427.9 434.2 442.7 Less: Inventory valuation adjustment......... -16.1 -22.6 -1.2 6.9 -4.3 -15.1 -21.2 -23.6 -37.9 -33.9 -13.4 -5.3 Equals: Net cash flow........................ 629.8 709.8 715.7 767.2 608.3 619.1 638.9 653.0 686.8 709.0 722.6 720.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6.--Corporate Profits-Continued [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.............. 735.9 748.3 755.4 762.0 794.3 815.5 840.9 820.8 829.2 Profits before tax............................ 669.9 683.4 681.9 685.7 712.4 729.8 758.9 736.4 719.1 Profits tax liability....................... 223.9 228.6 227.7 224.2 238.8 241.9 254.2 249.3 239.9 Profits after tax........................... 446.0 454.8 454.2 461.5 473.6 487.8 504.7 487.1 479.2 Dividends................................. 247.6 257.1 269.1 273.6 274.1 274.7 275.1 276.4 277.3 Undistributed profits..................... 198.4 197.6 185.1 187.9 199.5 213.2 229.5 210.6 201.8 Inventory valuation adjustment................ -2.9 -6.2 1.2 3.0 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 25.3 Capital consumption adjustment................ 68.9 71.2 72.3 73.3 73.8 75.5 77.2 80.1 84.9 Addenda: Net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............ 707.6 711.2 713.5 725.4 748.6 772.6 792.3 782.6 804.5 Undistributed profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.................................. 264.4 262.6 258.7 264.2 281.4 299.0 311.5 295.0 312.0 Consumption of fixed capital.................. 443.2 448.6 454.9 461.2 467.2 473.7 480.8 487.7 492.5 Less: Inventory valuation adjustment............ -2.9 -6.2 1.2 3.0 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 25.3 Equals: Net cash flow........................... 710.5 717.4 712.4 722.4 740.6 762.3 787.5 778.4 779.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7.--Corporate Profits by Industry [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.............................. 570.5 672.4 750.4 817.9 512.0 562.0 590.1 617.7 629.3 653.9 698.6 707.8 Domestic industries............................ 497.1 582.8 654.0 718.9 440.0 489.7 515.9 542.6 544.2 560.7 615.1 611.3 Financial.................................... 60.0 95.5 105.5 124.7 34.7 62.8 71.8 70.6 84.3 94.5 106.9 96.3 Nonfinancial................................. 437.1 487.4 548.5 594.2 405.4 427.0 444.1 472.0 460.0 466.2 508.3 515.0 Rest of the world.............................. 73.4 89.5 96.4 99.0 71.9 72.3 74.2 75.0 85.1 93.2 83.4 96.4 Receipts from the rest of the world.......... 96.8 123.9 134.5 149.5 89.0 91.9 101.0 105.4 117.3 125.9 122.9 129.5 Less: Payments to the rest of the world..... 23.5 34.4 38.1 50.4 17.1 19.6 26.8 30.3 32.3 32.7 39.5 33.0 Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment..................... 519.1 613.0 679.0 741.2 470.8 510.2 535.0 560.3 572.6 595.5 637.4 646.5 Domestic industries............................ 445.7 523.4 582.6 642.2 398.9 437.9 460.7 485.2 487.5 502.3 553.9 550.0 Financial.................................... 69.4 104.6 110.7 130.0 44.1 72.3 81.3 80.0 93.9 104.2 116.0 104.4 Federal Reserve banks...................... 17.8 22.2 21.8 23.3 16.1 16.8 18.2 20.0 21.7 22.5 22.4 22.1 Other...................................... 51.7 82.4 88.9 106.6 28.1 55.5 63.1 60.0 72.2 81.6 93.6 82.4 Nonfinancial................................. 376.3 418.8 471.8 512.3 354.7 365.6 379.5 405.3 393.6 398.1 438.0 445.6 Manufacturing.............................. 151.6 183.9 195.6 214.4 149.7 138.8 151.6 166.2 170.3 176.9 193.0 195.4 Durable goods............................ 76.7 87.1 97.2 107.3 77.0 73.7 73.3 83.0 85.0 82.1 89.5 92.0 Primary metal industries............... 2.2 7.0 5.4 5.6 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 6.6 8.0 6.7 6.8 Fabricated metal products.............. 11.0 11.8 14.2 15.5 10.6 10.0 10.8 12.7 11.6 12.3 11.5 11.9 Industrial machinery and equipment..... 12.7 22.3 26.1 27.6 9.8 12.5 12.2 16.3 20.0 20.4 23.9 24.9 Electronic and other electric equipment............................. 22.5 21.0 20.1 24.8 20.1 20.8 23.6 25.5 21.5 18.9 21.7 22.0 Motor vehicles and equipment........... 7.5 -.1 2.4 3.8 14.1 8.8 3.7 3.3 2.1 -1.7 .2 -.9 Other.................................. 20.9 25.0 29.0 30.0 20.1 20.0 20.7 22.7 23.2 24.0 25.5 27.4 Nondurable goods......................... 74.8 96.8 98.5 107.1 72.7 65.1 78.3 83.2 85.3 94.9 103.5 103.4 Food and kindred products.............. 20.0 27.6 22.0 22.7 19.3 18.5 19.7 22.5 25.2 27.9 28.7 28.5 Chemicals and allied products.......... 24.5 29.7 28.8 28.1 22.6 23.7 24.0 27.8 26.4 30.3 31.8 30.5 Petroleum and coal products............ .1 6.4 10.9 18.0 .0 -9.2 4.7 5.0 1.5 5.9 10.4 7.7 Other.................................. 30.2 33.1 36.7 38.3 30.8 32.1 29.9 27.9 32.1 30.8 32.7 36.7 Transportation and public utilities........ 83.1 86.0 92.7 88.4 74.0 82.3 85.1 90.8 84.2 84.0 89.3 86.3 Transportation........................... 10.3 11.3 14.8 17.6 7.5 9.3 10.9 13.7 10.8 11.4 11.4 11.6 Communications........................... 36.8 33.8 35.8 31.2 35.5 37.2 35.7 38.6 34.7 32.7 35.4 32.5 Electric, gas, and sanitary services..... 36.0 40.8 42.1 39.7 31.1 35.8 38.5 38.6 38.8 39.9 42.5 42.2 Wholesale trade............................ 29.4 26.2 37.9 49.8 28.1 33.8 27.3 28.6 22.8 21.2 29.7 31.1 Retail trade............................... 46.0 43.3 51.8 61.2 41.6 47.4 47.2 47.8 42.5 41.9 43.5 45.3 Other...................................... 66.2 79.5 93.8 98.5 61.3 63.2 68.3 71.8 73.8 74.1 82.4 87.6 Rest of the world.............................. 73.4 89.5 96.4 99.0 71.9 72.3 74.2 75.0 85.1 93.2 83.4 96.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 7.--Corporate Profits by Industry--Continued [Billions of dollars] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments................................. 735.9 748.3 755.4 762.0 794.3 815.5 840.9 820.8 829.2 Domestic industries............................... 643.3 654.8 661.7 656.1 697.9 710.2 738.6 728.8 730.6 Financial....................................... 110.3 111.5 106.9 93.3 122.5 123.5 123.3 129.5 131.3 Nonfinancial.................................... 533.0 543.4 554.9 562.8 575.4 586.7 615.2 599.3 599.3 Rest of the world................................. 92.6 93.5 93.6 105.9 96.4 105.4 102.3 92.0 98.6 Receipts from the rest of the world............. 129.4 130.9 133.4 144.1 144.9 153.3 157.2 142.5 146.1 Less: Payments to the rest of the world........ 36.8 37.5 39.8 38.3 48.4 47.9 54.8 50.6 47.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment........................ 667.0 677.1 683.0 688.7 720.5 740.1 763.7 740.7 744.3 Domestic industries............................... 574.4 583.7 589.4 582.8 624.0 634.7 661.4 648.7 645.8 Financial....................................... 116.5 116.6 111.7 98.0 127.7 128.7 128.6 134.7 136.3 Federal Reserve banks......................... 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.5 Other......................................... 94.9 95.0 89.9 76.0 105.1 105.8 105.0 110.6 111.8 Nonfinancial.................................... 457.9 467.0 477.7 484.8 496.3 506.0 532.8 514.0 509.4 Manufacturing................................. 191.6 195.0 197.3 198.6 200.8 215.5 228.9 212.3 197.1 Durable goods............................... 91.4 98.5 100.1 98.8 96.0 105.7 120.0 107.5 100.8 Primary metal industries.................. 5.5 5.0 6.0 5.1 4.3 5.5 6.6 5.8 6.3 Fabricated metal products................. 13.7 12.9 15.2 15.1 14.2 14.9 17.3 15.7 12.6 Industrial machinery and equipment........ 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.2 22.3 26.6 31.5 30.1 23.2 Electronic and other electric equipment................................ 17.6 19.5 19.7 23.4 23.4 24.4 27.6 24.0 21.9 Motor vehicles and equipment.............. .7 4.7 5.0 -.8 4.3 2.6 6.0 2.1 6.2 Other..................................... 26.8 30.1 28.2 30.7 27.4 31.7 31.0 29.8 30.7 Nondurable goods............................ 100.2 96.6 97.2 99.8 104.8 109.8 109.0 104.8 96.2 Food and kindred products................. 23.8 19.2 20.6 24.2 21.4 21.4 22.2 25.9 20.6 Chemicals and allied products............. 30.5 30.2 28.2 26.4 27.8 27.2 28.9 28.4 27.0 Petroleum and coal products............... 7.7 10.8 11.3 13.8 18.1 20.7 18.2 14.9 10.9 Other..................................... 38.2 36.3 37.1 35.3 37.4 40.5 39.7 35.7 37.8 Transportation and public utilities........... 89.6 96.2 93.9 91.3 89.8 87.0 88.3 88.6 91.7 Transportation.............................. 11.5 15.3 17.4 15.0 16.9 18.3 18.0 17.0 17.3 Communications.............................. 34.2 36.4 37.8 34.9 32.4 28.9 32.3 31.3 34.1 Electric, gas, and sanitary services........ 43.9 44.4 38.7 41.4 40.5 39.8 38.0 40.3 40.3 Wholesale trade............................... 35.6 31.9 37.7 46.3 48.3 50.5 52.7 47.6 51.5 Retail trade.................................. 49.7 52.5 53.8 51.2 60.8 59.1 62.7 62.2 67.4 Other......................................... 91.3 91.4 95.1 97.3 96.6 93.8 100.1 103.4 101.8 Rest of the world................................. 92.6 93.5 93.6 105.9 96.4 105.4 102.3 92.0 98.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 8.--Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business....................... 3709.7 3920.4 4134.4 4414.5 3624.5 3668.9 3729.1 3816.4 3844.1 3879.3 3956.5 4001.7 Consumption of fixed capital................... 360.7 375.6 393.4 415.4 375.1 351.6 355.9 360.0 365.6 372.6 378.1 385.9 Net domestic product........................... 3349.0 3544.8 3741.0 3999.1 3249.3 3317.3 3373.2 3456.4 3478.5 3506.7 3578.3 3615.8 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies..................... 389.0 397.3 411.6 436.8 380.4 386.1 392.3 397.1 396.1 397.0 396.0 400.2 Domestic income.............................. 2960.1 3147.5 3329.4 3562.3 2868.9 2931.1 2980.9 3059.2 3082.4 3109.7 3182.3 3215.6 Compensation of employees.................. 2426.7 2556.0 2679.7 2871.2 2372.5 2409.8 2439.2 2485.2 2519.5 2539.5 2569.6 2595.3 Wage and salary accruals................. 1985.4 2111.4 2240.7 2416.6 1938.6 1969.6 1996.1 2037.4 2072.7 2094.4 2125.2 2153.3 Supplements to wages and salaries........ 441.2 444.6 439.0 454.6 433.9 440.2 443.1 447.8 446.8 445.1 444.4 442.0 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................... 437.1 487.4 548.5 594.2 405.4 427.0 444.1 472.0 460.0 466.2 508.3 515.0 Profits before tax....................... 392.3 441.5 473.1 505.4 359.1 380.7 400.7 428.9 431.5 432.1 451.4 450.9 Profits tax liability.................. 128.8 136.7 151.5 169.8 119.5 124.6 130.1 141.1 134.6 132.8 139.3 140.3 Profits after tax...................... 263.5 304.7 321.5 335.6 239.6 256.1 270.6 287.8 296.9 299.2 312.0 310.7 Dividends............................ 158.6 179.3 217.1 229.3 150.4 158.7 158.5 166.8 169.0 171.2 184.5 192.7 Undistributed profits................ 104.9 125.4 104.4 106.3 89.2 97.4 112.1 121.0 127.9 128.0 127.6 118.0 Inventory valuation adjustment........... -16.1 -22.6 -1.2 6.9 -4.3 -15.1 -21.2 -23.6 -37.9 -33.9 -13.4 -5.3 Capital consumption adjustment........... 60.8 68.5 76.7 81.9 50.6 61.4 64.6 66.7 66.3 68.1 70.3 69.5 Net interest............................... 96.3 104.2 101.2 96.9 91.1 94.3 97.6 102.1 103.0 104.0 104.5 105.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business....................... 3586.3 3745.5 3914.8 4154.4 3526.1 3559.8 3594.6 3664.9 3682.3 3710.0 3776.2 3813.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real gross domestic product...... 1.034 1.047 1.056 1.063 1.028 1.031 1.037 1.041 1.044 1.046 1.048 1.049 Consumption of fixed capital................... .101 .100 .100 .100 .106 .099 .099 .098 .099 .100 .100 .101 Net domestic product........................... .934 .946 .956 .963 .922 .932 .938 .943 .945 .945 .948 .948 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies..................... .108 .106 .105 .105 .108 .108 .109 .108 .108 .107 .105 .105 Domestic income.............................. .825 .840 .850 .857 .814 .823 .829 .835 .837 .838 .843 .843 Compensation of employees.................. .677 .682 .685 .691 .673 .677 .679 .678 .684 .685 .680 .681 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................... .122 .130 .140 .143 .115 .120 .124 .129 .125 .126 .135 .135 Profits tax liability.................... .036 .037 .039 .041 .034 .035 .036 .038 .037 .036 .037 .037 Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................. .086 .094 .101 .102 .081 .085 .087 .090 .088 .090 .098 .098 Net interest............................... .027 .028 .026 .023 .026 .026 .027 .028 .028 .028 .028 .028 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 8.--Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business-Cont ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business.......................... 4033.0 4106.4 4168.9 4229.3 4307.1 4375.7 4461.9 4513.2 4574.2 Consumption of fixed capital...................... 385.8 390.6 395.9 401.3 406.5 412.2 418.4 424.4 428.5 Net domestic product.............................. 3647.2 3715.8 3773.1 3828.0 3900.6 3963.5 4043.4 4088.8 4145.7 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies........................ 405.3 409.1 412.7 419.5 425.6 434.5 442.1 445.0 450.5 Domestic income................................. 3241.9 3306.7 3360.4 3408.5 3475.0 3529.0 3601.4 3643.8 3695.2 Compensation of employees..................... 2607.1 2661.8 2704.3 2745.7 2799.1 2843.4 2889.8 2952.6 3002.3 Wage and salary accruals.................... 2172.0 2223.7 2264.2 2302.9 2348.4 2389.7 2434.3 2494.2 2534.5 Supplements to wages and salaries........... 435.0 438.1 440.1 442.8 450.6 453.7 455.5 458.4 467.8 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.................................. 533.0 543.4 554.9 562.8 575.4 586.7 615.2 599.3 599.3 Profits before tax.......................... 460.8 473.3 476.5 481.8 488.3 495.6 528.0 509.8 484.2 Profits tax liability..................... 146.8 151.3 152.5 155.5 164.4 166.4 178.1 170.1 159.7 Profits after tax......................... 314.0 321.9 324.0 326.3 323.9 329.2 349.9 339.6 324.5 Dividends............................... 208.4 210.4 222.2 227.3 227.0 224.6 226.1 239.6 237.3 Undistributed profits................... 105.5 111.5 101.8 99.0 96.8 104.6 123.8 100.1 87.2 Inventory valuation adjustment.............. -2.9 -6.2 1.2 3.0 8.1 10.3 4.8 4.3 25.3 Capital consumption adjustment.............. 75.1 76.3 77.2 78.0 79.1 80.7 82.5 85.3 89.8 Net interest.................................. 101.9 101.6 101.2 100.0 100.6 99.0 96.3 91.9 93.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business.......................... 3826.9 3891.0 3944.2 3997.1 4054.5 4117.0 4198.5 4247.5 4309.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dollars --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real gross domestic product......... 1.054 1.055 1.057 1.058 1.062 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.061 Consumption of fixed capital...................... .101 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .100 .099 Net domestic product.............................. .953 .955 .957 .958 .962 .963 .963 .963 .962 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies........................ .106 .105 .105 .105 .105 .106 .105 .105 .105 Domestic income................................. .847 .850 .852 .853 .857 .857 .858 .858 .858 Compensation of employees..................... .681 .684 .686 .687 .690 .691 .688 .695 .697 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.................................. .139 .140 .141 .141 .142 .143 .147 .141 .139 Profits tax liability....................... .038 .039 .039 .039 .041 .040 .042 .040 .037 Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments................................ .101 .101 .102 .102 .101 .102 .104 .101 .102 Net interest.................................. .027 .026 .026 .025 .025 .024 .023 .022 .022 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 9.--Revisions to Current-Dollar Gross Domestic Product, National Income, and Disposition of Personal Income --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ------------------------ ------------------------ Revisions as Revised Revisions to percent of estimates previously previously published published ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product............ 7269.6 7661.6 8110.9 4.2 25.6 31.0 .1 .3 .4 Personal consumption expenditures...... 4953.9 5215.7 5493.7 -3.8 8.1 7.9 -.1 .2 .1 Durable goods........................ 611.0 643.3 673.0 2.5 8.8 13.7 .4 1.4 2.1 Nondurable goods..................... 1473.6 1539.2 1600.6 -2.2 4.5 8.6 -.1 .3 .5 Services............................. 2869.2 3033.2 3220.1 -4.2 -5.2 -14.4 -.1 -.2 -.4 Gross private domestic investment...... 1043.2 1131.9 1256.0 5.0 15.4 13.5 .5 1.4 1.1 Fixed investment..................... 1012.5 1099.8 1188.6 4.4 9.1 14.5 .4 .8 1.2 Nonresidential..................... 727.7 787.9 860.7 4.7 6.5 13.8 .7 .8 1.6 Structures....................... 201.3 216.9 240.2 .7 1.7 10.0 .3 .8 4.3 Producers' durable equipment..... 526.4 571.0 620.5 4.0 4.8 3.8 .8 .8 .6 Residential........................ 284.8 311.8 327.9 -.3 2.6 .7 -.1 .8 .2 Change in business inventories....... 30.7 32.1 67.4 .6 6.2 -1.0 ..... ..... ..... Farm............................... -9.3 7.6 4.3 -1.4 4.7 -2.4 ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................ 40.1 24.5 63.1 2.0 1.5 1.4 ..... ..... ..... Net exports of goods and services...... -83.9 -91.2 -93.4 2.1 3.6 7.7 ..... ..... ..... Exports.............................. 819.4 873.8 965.4 1.0 2.9 8.3 .1 .3 .9 Imports.............................. 903.3 965.0 1058.8 -1.2 -.7 .7 -.1 -.1 .1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1356.4 1405.2 1454.6 .9 -1.5 1.9 .1 -.1 .1 Federal.............................. 509.1 518.4 520.2 -.5 -1.6 -3.6 -.1 -.3 -.7 National defense................... 344.4 351.0 346.0 -.2 -1.8 -4.3 -.1 -.5 -1.2 Nondefense......................... 164.7 167.4 174.3 -.3 .1 .8 -.2 .1 .5 State and local...................... 847.3 886.8 934.4 1.3 .1 5.5 .2 .0 .6 Addendum: Gross national product................. 7287.1 7674.0 8102.9 16.5 36.3 42.8 .2 .5 .5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- National income................... 5923.7 6256.0 6646.5 11.4 1.5 -3.2 .2 .0 .0 Compensation of employees.............. 4208.9 4409.0 4687.2 -6.5 -17.9 -16.4 -.2 -.4 -.3 Wage and salary accruals............. 3441.9 3640.4 3893.6 -.7 6.8 15.0 .0 .2 .4 Supplements to wages and salaries............................ 767.0 768.6 793.7 -5.9 -24.7 -31.3 -.8 -3.1 -3.8 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj................................. 488.1 527.7 551.2 -.9 7.4 6.7 -.2 1.4 1.2 Farm................................. 22.4 38.9 35.5 -1.0 1.7 -5.2 -4.3 4.6 -12.8 Nonfarm.............................. 465.6 488.8 515.8 .1 5.7 12.0 .0 1.2 2.4 Rental income of persons with CCAdj.... 133.7 150.2 158.2 .9 3.9 10.3 .7 2.7 7.0 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj................................. 672.4 750.4 817.9 22.4 14.5 12.9 3.4 2.0 1.6 Net interest........................... 420.6 418.6 432.0 -4.5 -6.5 -16.7 -1.1 -1.5 -3.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income........................ 6072.1 6425.2 6784.0 -78.7 -70.0 -89.9 -1.3 -1.1 -1.3 Wage and salary disbursements........ 3428.5 3631.1 3889.8 -1.0 -1.4 12.4 .0 .0 .3 Other labor income................... 401.6 387.0 392.9 -5.2 -20.6 -23.7 -1.3 -5.1 -5.7 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj........................... 488.1 527.7 551.2 -.9 7.4 6.7 -.2 1.4 1.2 Rental income of persons with CCAdj............................... 133.7 150.2 158.2 .9 3.9 10.3 .7 2.7 7.0 Personal dividend income............. 192.8 248.2 260.3 -59.1 -43.0 -61.2 -23.5 -14.8 -19.0 Personal interest income............. 704.9 719.4 747.3 -14.0 -16.3 -21.3 -1.9 -2.2 -2.8 Transfer payments to persons......... 1015.9 1068.0 1110.4 .9 .0 -10.7 .1 .0 -1.0 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.................... 293.6 306.3 326.2 .5 .0 2.5 .2 .0 .8 Less: Personal tax and nontax payments....................... 795.0 890.5 989.0 -.1 3.6 .3 .0 .4 .0 Equals: Disposable personal income.... 5277.0 5534.7 5795.1 -78.7 -73.6 -90.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 Less: Personal outlays................ 5097.2 5376.2 5674.1 -3.9 7.4 15.6 -.1 .1 .3 Equals: Personal saving............... 179.8 158.5 121.0 -74.8 -81.1 -105.7 -29.4 -33.8 -46.6 Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............ 3.4 2.9 2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.8 ..... ..... ..... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IVA Inventory valuation adjustment CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment Table 10.--Revisions to Gross Domestic Income, Gross National Income, and the Statistical Discrepancy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars ------------------------ ------------------------ Revisions as Revised Revisions to percent of estimates previously previously published published ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)..... 7269.6 7661.6 8110.9 4.2 25.6 31.0 .1 .3 .4 Less: Statistical discrepancy......... -26.5 -32.2 -55.8 1.7 27.7 30.2 ..... ..... ..... Gross domestic income............ 7296.1 7693.8 8166.7 2.5 -2.1 .8 .0 .0 .0 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world.......... 225.2 235.5 265.5 2.4 1.2 3.3 1.1 .5 1.3 Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world............... 207.6 223.1 273.5 -9.9 -9.5 -8.5 -4.6 -4.1 -3.0 Gross national income............ 7313.6 7706.2 8158.7 14.7 8.6 12.5 .2 .1 .2 National income........................ 5923.7 6256.0 6646.5 11.4 1.5 -3.2 .2 .0 .0 Business transfer payments............. 32.9 33.8 35.1 .7 .2 -.2 2.2 .6 -.6 Indirect business tax and nontax liability............................. 581.2 606.4 627.2 -1.6 1.6 7.8 -.3 .3 1.3 Federal.............................. 92.5 94.5 93.8 -1.0 -1.3 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 2.7 State and local...................... 488.7 511.9 533.4 -.6 3.0 5.3 -.1 .6 1.0 Less: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises..... 25.1 22.0 21.9 -.1 -3.4 -4.2 -.4 -13.4 -16.1 Consumption of fixed capital........... 800.8 832.0 871.8 4.0 1.9 3.9 .5 .2 .4 Private.............................. 657.0 684.3 720.2 4.0 1.6 3.3 .6 .2 .5 Capital consumption allowances........................ 677.1 719.7 760.5 8.0 9.8 10.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 Less: Capital consumption adjustment........................ 20.1 35.4 40.4 4.0 8.3 6.8 ..... ..... ..... Government........................... 143.8 147.7 151.6 .0 .3 .6 .0 .2 .4 Addendum: Statistical discrepancy as a percentage of GDP.................. -.4 -.4 -.7 .0 .4 .4 ..... ..... ..... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 11.--Revisions to Real Gross Domestic Product and Disposable Personal Income ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ------------------------ ------------------------ Revisions as Revised Revisions to percent of estimates previously previously published published ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product........ 6761.7 6994.8 7269.8 19.6 66.4 81.0 .3 1.0 1.1 Personal consumption expenditures.. 4605.6 4752.4 4913.5 10.3 38.3 46.0 .2 .8 .9 Durable goods.................... 589.1 626.1 668.6 5.5 15.0 23.1 .9 2.5 3.6 Nondurable goods................. 1417.6 1450.9 1486.3 5.0 18.6 27.8 .4 1.3 1.9 Services......................... 2599.6 2676.7 2761.5 .0 5.7 -2.6 .0 .2 -.1 Gross private domestic investment.. 996.1 1084.1 1206.4 4.6 15.0 9.4 .5 1.4 .8 Fixed investment................. 966.0 1050.6 1138.0 3.9 8.9 14.4 .4 .9 1.3 Nonresidential................. 710.6 776.6 859.4 4.1 4.9 11.1 .6 .6 1.3 Structures................... 180.7 189.7 203.2 .8 1.0 7.8 .4 .5 4.0 Producers' durable equipment. 531.7 589.8 660.9 3.4 3.8 1.9 .6 .6 .3 Residential.................... 256.8 275.9 282.8 -.2 3.8 3.3 -.1 1.4 1.2 Change in business inventories... 27.7 30.0 63.2 .4 5.0 -2.5 ..... ..... ..... Farm........................... -11.0 7.1 4.3 -1.8 4.5 -3.7 ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm........................ 37.7 23.2 58.8 2.0 .7 1.0 ..... ..... ..... Net exports of goods and services.. -96.5 -111.2 -136.1 2.3 3.2 10.4 ..... ..... ..... Exports.......................... 792.6 860.0 970.0 1.4 3.0 7.3 .2 .4 .8 Imports.......................... 889.0 971.2 1106.1 -1.1 -.3 -3.1 -.1 .0 -.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.............. 1254.5 1268.2 1285.0 2.6 10.3 15.4 .2 .8 1.2 Federal.......................... 470.6 465.6 458.0 .3 1.4 1.0 .1 .3 .2 National defense............... 323.5 319.1 308.9 .9 1.3 .3 .3 .4 .1 Nondefense..................... 146.9 146.2 148.6 -.6 .1 .7 -.4 .1 .5 State and local.................. 783.9 802.7 827.1 2.3 9.0 14.4 .3 1.1 1.8 Addenda: Gross national product........... 6779.5 7008.4 7266.2 30.8 76.4 91.8 .5 1.1 1.3 Final sales of domestic product.. 6731.7 6961.6 7203.7 19.0 60.6 85.4 .3 .9 1.2 Gross domestic purchases......... 6855.0 7101.1 7396.5 17.5 63.4 71.9 .3 .9 1.0 Disposable personal income....... 4906.0 5043.0 5183.1 -58.2 -33.9 -38.8 -1.2 -.7 -.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 12.--Revisions to Corporate Profits by Industry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of dollars -------------------- -------------------- Revisions as Revised Revisions to percent of estimates previously previously published published -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 672.4 750.4 817.9 22.4 14.5 12.9 3.4 2.0 1.6 Domestic industries.......................... 582.8 654.0 718.9 19.6 14.0 12.4 3.5 2.2 1.8 Financial.................................. 95.5 105.5 124.7 6.8 11.3 15.2 7.7 12.0 13.9 Nonfinancial............................... 487.4 548.5 594.2 12.8 2.7 -2.7 2.7 .5 -.5 Rest of the world............................ 89.5 96.4 99.0 2.8 .5 .4 3.2 .5 .4 Receipts from the rest of the world........ 123.9 134.5 149.5 3.7 1.8 3.6 3.1 1.4 2.5 Less: Payments to the rest of the world... 34.4 38.1 50.4 .9 1.4 3.1 ..... ..... ..... Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment................... 613.0 679.0 741.2 14.6 4.9 5.9 2.4 .7 .8 Domestic industries.......................... 523.4 582.6 642.2 11.7 4.4 5.5 2.3 .8 .9 Financial.................................. 104.6 110.7 130.0 7.0 7.2 10.5 7.2 7.0 8.8 Federal Reserve banks.................... 22.2 21.8 23.3 .0 -.2 -.2 .0 -.9 -.9 Other.................................... 82.4 88.9 106.6 7.0 7.4 10.6 9.3 9.1 11.0 Nonfinancial............................... 418.8 471.8 512.3 4.7 -2.9 -4.9 1.1 -.6 -.9 Manufacturing............................ 183.9 195.6 214.4 2.6 -9.9 -10.3 1.4 -4.8 -4.6 Durable goods.......................... 87.1 97.2 107.3 1.9 -1.8 -7.2 2.2 -1.8 -6.3 Primary metal industries............. 7.0 5.4 5.6 .5 -.2 -.4 7.7 -3.6 -6.7 Fabricated metal products............ 11.8 14.2 15.5 -.6 -2.9 -3.4 -4.8 -17.0 -18.0 Industrial machinery and equipment... 22.3 26.1 27.6 .3 .3 -1.2 1.4 1.2 -4.2 Electronic and other electric equipment........................... 21.0 20.1 24.8 1.8 -3.8 -9.0 9.4 -15.9 -26.6 Motor vehicles and equipment......... -.1 2.4 3.8 .1 5.6 5.7 ..... ..... ..... Other................................ 25.0 29.0 30.0 -.3 -.8 1.1 -1.2 -2.7 3.8 Nondurable goods....................... 96.8 98.5 107.1 .8 -8.0 -3.1 .8 -7.5 -2.8 Food and kindred products............ 27.6 22.0 22.7 .5 -6.5 -7.2 1.8 -22.8 -24.1 Chemicals and allied products........ 29.7 28.8 28.1 -.6 -2.4 -1.2 -2.0 -7.7 -4.1 Petroleum and coal products.......... 6.4 10.9 18.0 .4 .9 5.8 ..... ..... ..... Other................................ 33.1 36.7 38.3 .5 -.1 -.4 1.5 -.3 -1.0 Transportation and public utilities...... 86.0 92.7 88.4 -.4 1.0 -2.3 -.5 1.1 -2.5 Transportation......................... 11.3 14.8 17.6 -.1 3.1 1.5 -.9 26.5 9.3 Communications......................... 33.8 35.8 31.2 .2 -.2 -1.6 .6 -.6 -4.9 Electric, gas, and sanitary services... 40.8 42.1 39.7 -.6 -1.9 -2.0 -1.4 -4.3 -4.8 Wholesale trade.......................... 26.2 37.9 49.8 -.7 -.4 -1.3 -2.6 -1.0 -2.5 Retail trade............................. 43.3 51.8 61.2 1.4 2.9 5.4 3.3 5.9 9.7 Other.................................... 79.5 93.8 98.5 1.9 3.5 3.5 2.4 3.9 3.7 Rest of the world............................ 89.5 96.4 99.0 2.8 .5 .4 3.2 .5 .4 Addenda: Corporate profits before tax............... 635.6 680.2 734.4 13.0 3.6 4.6 2.1 .5 .6 Inventory valuation adjustment............. -22.6 -1.2 6.9 1.7 1.3 1.4 ..... ..... ..... Capital consumption adjustment............. 59.4 71.4 76.6 7.8 9.6 6.9 ..... ..... ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 13.--Percent Change From Preceding Period in Revised and Previously Published Estimates of Real Gross Domestic Product and Disposable Personal Income ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---- 1995 1996 1997 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product: Revised........................... 2.3 3.4 3.9 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 Previously published.............. 2.0 2.8 3.8 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 5.4 Revision........................ .3 .6 .1 .8 .1 .3 .6 1.5 .1 1.1 -.1 -.7 .7 1.1 -.7 .1 Personal consumption expenditures: Revised......................... 2.7 3.2 3.4 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 3.7 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 1.6 6.2 2.8 6.1 Previously published............ 2.4 2.6 3.3 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 2.5 6.0 Nonresidential fixed investment: Revised......................... 9.6 9.3 10.7 16.0 6.9 .9 6.1 13.1 11.0 14.2 8.8 7.0 14.0 17.0 1.8 22.2 Previously published............ 9.0 9.2 9.9 14.2 5.7 1.6 4.9 11.7 13.0 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -.8 17.8 Residential fixed investment: Revised......................... -3.8 7.4 2.5 -8.8 -15.0 10.1 10.6 9.3 19.5 -1.7 -3.9 3.1 6.1 -.4 8.2 15.6 Previously published............ -3.8 5.9 2.7 -7.0 -15.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 17.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.1 16.9 Exports of goods and services: Revised......................... 11.3 8.5 12.8 9.2 5.4 17.8 10.2 3.7 5.8 2.1 32.0 8.3 15.5 10.6 4.4 -2.8 Previously published............ 11.1 8.3 12.3 7.2 9.3 13.5 11.5 1.7 9.6 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 4.4 8.3 -1.2 Imports of goods and services: Revised......................... 8.8 9.2 13.9 9.8 7.2 2.0 3.5 13.1 13.5 13.6 7.0 18.6 17.9 13.5 6.3 15.7 Previously published............ 8.9 9.1 14.2 10.0 7.7 2.3 2.4 13.1 14.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.6 5.3 17.1 Federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Revised......................... -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 -2.6 -2.0 -2.6 -14.7 8.0 8.1 -4.7 -6.3 -2.7 3.6 -1.2 -2.1 -8.8 Previously published............ -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 -1.1 -4.5 -1.3 -16.4 7.5 8.8 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.3 -10.0 State and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Revised......................... 2.4 2.4 3.1 1.8 3.2 .4 2.8 .5 6.5 .3 3.8 4.9 1.3 2.9 1.3 2.1 Previously published............ 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.7 2.6 -.4 1.9 -1.4 6.3 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 .8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Revised......................... 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.2 2.3 3.7 2.5 3.6 5.4 .9 5.1 2.9 2.7 5.8 2.1 4.3 Previously published............ 2.5 2.8 3.1 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 5.2 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.3 3.7 Revision...................... .3 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 .5 1.0 .2 .7 .6 -.1 .2 1.1 -.2 .6 Gross domestic purchases: Revised......................... 2.1 3.6 4.2 1.9 .7 1.7 2.0 4.5 7.0 3.4 1.8 5.5 4.4 4.6 3.2 7.8 Previously published............ 1.9 2.9 4.1 1.3 .2 1.9 1.3 3.1 6.5 2.4 2.5 5.9 3.7 4.3 3.4 7.6 Revision...................... .2 .7 .1 .6 .5 -.2 .7 1.4 .5 1.0 -.7 -.4 .7 .3 -.2 .2 Final sales of domestic purchases: Revised......................... 2.6 3.6 3.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.8 4.7 6.3 2.2 2.7 4.1 3.1 6.2 2.4 6.6 Previously published............ 2.3 3.0 3.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 1.0 3.9 5.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 2.9 6.0 2.0 5.9 Revision...................... .3 .6 .2 .2 .8 .0 .8 .8 .5 .7 .0 .1 .2 .2 .4 .7 Gross national product: Revised......................... 2.4 3.4 3.7 2.7 .6 2.6 3.5 3.3 5.7 1.6 4.5 3.6 4.1 3.8 2.4 5.8 Previously published............ 2.0 2.7 3.5 1.2 .6 2.2 2.7 1.8 5.7 .6 4.9 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.6 5.6 Revision...................... .4 .7 .2 1.5 .0 .4 .8 1.5 .0 1.0 -.4 -.4 1.1 .7 -1.2 .2 Disposable personal income: Revised......................... 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 -.6 2.7 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.4 1.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.9 4.0 Previously published............ 3.3 2.3 2.9 4.5 .2 2.6 2.5 3.5 1.1 2.7 .7 4.6 3.1 2.6 4.5 4.5 Revision...................... -.5 .5 -.1 -1.9 -.8 .1 1.4 -.6 1.0 1.7 .6 -1.3 -.2 -.2 -1.6 -.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Based on current dollars Gross domestic product: Revised........................... 4.6 5.4 5.9 4.3 2.3 5.3 4.9 5.7 7.3 3.9 6.1 7.2 5.6 5.4 4.2 6.4 Previously published.............. 4.6 5.1 5.8 4.2 2.3 5.2 4.5 4.7 7.7 3.6 6.2 7.4 5.2 4.6 5.2 6.6 Revision........................ .0 .3 .1 .1 .0 .1 .4 1.0 -.4 .3 -.1 -.2 .4 .8 -1.0 -.2 Gross domestic income: Revised........................... 5.2 5.5 6.1 3.8 3.7 6.5 4.8 4.7 7.0 5.5 5.2 7.7 5.8 6.3 4.2 5.7 Previously published.............. 5.2 5.5 6.1 3.8 3.5 6.6 4.7 4.8 7.7 5.2 5.1 7.6 5.6 6.0 5.1 6.2 Revision........................ .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 -.1 .1 -.1 -.7 .3 .1 .1 .2 .3 -.9 -.5 Disposable personal income: Revised........................... 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.3 1.7 4.7 5.6 5.2 4.6 6.0 3.8 5.9 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 Previously published.............. 6.0 4.7 4.9 7.4 2.5 4.6 4.2 6.3 4.0 5.2 3.7 6.8 4.2 4.1 5.7 5.0 Revision........................ -.9 .2 -.2 -3.1 -.8 .1 1.4 -1.1 .6 .8 .1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.7 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 14.--Percent Change From Preceding Period in Revised and Previously Published Price Indexes (Chain-type Weights) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---- 1995 1996 1997 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product: Revised........................... 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 Previously published.............. 2.5 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 Revision........................ -.2 -.4 -.1 -.8 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.6 -.5 -.9 -.3 .4 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.3 Personal consumption expenditures: Revised........................... 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 .0 Previously published.............. 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 .5 Nonresidential fixed investment: Revised........................... .5 -.9 -1.3 .2 2.0 -.7 -.8 -1.5 -1.5 -.5 -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.6 -3.0 Previously published.............. .4 -1.0 -1.4 .3 1.6 -.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.7 -.3 -1.5 -2.0 -1.5 -.8 -1.0 -2.8 Residential fixed investment: Revised........................... 3.5 1.9 2.6 5.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.6 4.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 4.0 2.4 .0 Previously published.............. 3.6 2.4 3.0 5.0 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 5.7 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.2 2.6 .6 Exports of goods and services: Revised........................... 2.1 -1.7 -2.0 4.0 3.4 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 -1.7 -3.2 -4.2 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.6 -3.4 Previously published.............. 2.2 -1.8 -2.2 4.4 3.4 -2.0 -2.6 -1.5 -1.4 -2.6 -4.3 -1.8 -.7 -2.0 -2.1 -4.8 Imports of goods and services: Revised........................... 2.2 -2.2 -3.7 1.4 6.9 -3.9 -3.9 -1.8 -1.5 -5.2 -.3 -4.4 -7.1 -2.1 -2.3 -10.4 Previously published.............. 2.2 -2.2 -3.9 1.6 6.9 -4.0 -3.9 -1.9 -1.8 -4.2 .0 -5.3 -7.6 -3.0 -2.1 -11.4 Federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Revised........................... 3.2 2.9 2.0 5.8 1.4 2.5 8.2 4.2 -2.1 1.8 2.7 4.8 .9 -.2 1.4 2.7 Previously published.............. 3.3 3.4 2.4 5.2 2.6 2.8 8.5 4.7 -1.4 2.1 2.5 4.9 1.3 .9 3.5 1.3 State and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Revised........................... 3.1 2.2 2.2 4.2 3.8 1.9 1.4 4.3 -.6 2.7 2.8 3.3 1.4 1.4 2.7 .2 Previously published.............. 3.2 3.2 2.3 4.0 4.1 2.5 2.5 5.9 .6 3.6 2.5 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 .9 Addenda: Gross domestic purchases: Revised......................... 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 Previously published............ 2.5 2.2 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 .1 Revision...................... -.2 -.4 -.1 -.8 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.6 -.4 -.9 -.3 .3 .1 -.2 -.4 -.3 Final sales of domestic product: Revised......................... 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 .9 Previously published............ 2.5 2.3 2.1 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 Final sales of domestic purchases: Revised......................... 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 .9 1.1 1.0 -.1 Previously published............ 2.6 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 .9 1.3 1.4 .2 Gross national product: Revised......................... 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 Previously published............ 2.5 2.3 2.0 3.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 15.--Contributions to Percent Change in Revised and Previously Published Estimates of Real Gross Domestic Product ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997 1998 ------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---- 1995 1996 1997 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product: Revised........................... 2.3 3.4 3.9 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 Previously published.............. 2.0 2.8 3.8 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.7 5.4 Personal consumption expenditures: Revised......................... 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.2 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 4.2 1.9 4.1 Previously published............ 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 2.1 2.5 .4 2.2 3.6 .6 3.8 1.7 4.1 Durable goods: Revised....................... .4 .5 .6 -.1 .5 .7 .4 .5 1.0 -.2 .6 1.0 -.1 1.3 .3 1.2 Previously published.......... .3 .4 .4 -.3 .3 .7 .2 .4 .8 -.2 .3 1.1 -.5 1.4 .2 1.2 Nondurable goods: Revised....................... .4 .5 .5 .5 .3 .2 .4 .4 1.0 .2 .6 .7 .0 1.0 -.1 1.4 Previously published.......... .3 .3 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .1 .4 .9 -.4 .8 -.2 1.3 Services: Revised....................... 1.0 1.2 1.3 .9 1.5 1.0 .8 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 Previously published.......... 1.0 1.1 1.4 .9 1.4 .9 .9 1.4 1.2 .4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.6 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Revised......................... .7 1.2 1.2 1.1 .1 .5 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.3 .7 .8 1.6 1.7 .5 2.8 Previously published............ .7 1.1 1.1 1.0 -.1 .5 .8 1.4 1.9 1.4 .4 .6 1.7 2.0 .3 2.4 Nonresidential: Revised....................... .9 .9 1.1 1.5 .7 .1 .6 1.3 1.1 1.4 .9 .7 1.4 1.7 .2 2.2 Previously published.......... .8 .9 1.0 1.3 .6 .2 .5 1.1 1.3 1.6 .6 .4 1.4 1.9 -.1 1.8 Structures: Revised..................... .1 .1 .2 .3 .1 .0 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .6 .1 -.2 .3 .0 -.1 Previously published........ .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 -.1 -.1 Producers' durable equipment: Revised..................... .8 .8 .9 1.2 .5 .1 .7 1.1 .9 1.1 .2 .6 1.6 1.3 .1 2.4 Previously published........ .7 .8 .9 1.0 .4 .1 .6 .9 1.0 1.3 .2 .5 1.6 1.7 .0 1.9 Residential: Revised....................... -.2 .3 .1 -.4 -.6 .4 .4 .4 .7 -.1 -.2 .1 .2 .0 .3 .6 Previously published.......... -.2 .2 .1 -.3 -.7 .3 .3 .3 .7 -.2 -.2 .1 .3 .1 .4 .7 Change in business inventories: Revised......................... -.4 .0 .5 -.5 -1.8 -.4 .3 -.3 .6 1.2 -.8 1.3 1.3 -1.4 .8 1.2 Previously published............ -.5 .0 .6 -.8 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.8 .7 .8 -.2 1.8 .8 -1.6 1.4 1.7 Net exports of goods and services: Revised......................... .1 -.2 -.3 -.2 -.3 1.6 .7 -1.1 -.9 -1.3 2.4 -1.2 -.4 -.5 -.3 -2.2 Previously published............ .1 -.2 -.3 -.4 .1 1.1 1.0 -1.3 -.6 -1.4 1.8 -1.0 -.4 -1.3 .3 -2.2 Exports of goods and services: Revised....................... 1.2 .9 1.4 .9 .5 1.8 1.1 .4 .7 .2 3.2 .9 1.8 1.2 .5 -.3 Previously published.......... 1.1 .9 1.3 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 .2 1.1 .2 2.7 1.1 2.0 .5 1.0 -.1 Imports of goods and services: Revised....................... -1.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -.8 -.2 -.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -.9 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 -.8 -1.9 Previously published.......... -1.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.8 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 -.7 -2.1 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Revised......................... .0 .2 .2 .0 .2 -.1 -.8 .6 1.3 -.3 .0 .4 .4 .2 .0 -.3 Previously published............ .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.1 -1.0 .3 1.3 -.2 .0 -.1 .6 .2 .1 -.6 Federal: Revised....................... -.2 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.1 -.2 -1.1 .5 .5 -.3 -.4 -.2 .2 -.1 -.1 -.6 Previously published.......... -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.3 -.1 -1.2 .5 .6 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.1 -.1 -.7 National Defense: Revised..................... -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 .4 -.3 -.4 -.5 .4 -.1 -.1 -.8 Previously published........ -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.8 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.6 .3 .1 .0 -.9 Nondefense: Revised..................... .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 .1 -.5 .2 .2 .0 .0 .3 -.1 .0 -.1 .3 Previously published........ .0 .0 .0 .0 -.3 .1 -.4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .1 -.1 -.2 .2 State and local: Revised....................... .3 .3 .4 .2 .4 .0 .3 .1 .7 .0 .4 .6 .2 .3 .2 .2 Previously published.......... .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 .0 .2 -.2 .7 .1 .4 .3 .1 .3 .2 .1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current-dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys. The real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures based on a "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1996), a variant of the standard quarterly formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. For this period, BEA uses weights from two adjacent quarters to calculate the change from the preceding quarter. BEA also publishes a second measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator." The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. Its values are very similar to those of the "chain-type" price index. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates. Reference: "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey of Current Business.