FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 1998 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 98-04 Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 1997 (PRELIMINARY) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. Real GDP increased $69.3 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $54.4 billion in the third. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 4.3 percent (see "Revisions" on pages 2 and 3). The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were: Personal consumption expenditures, change in business inventories, and exports of goods and services. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.6 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 19.2 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 4.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.7 percent. Producers' durable equipment decreased 3.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 24.1 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 9.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 10.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 6.4 percent, compared with an increase of 14.6 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 1.1 percent in the third. National defense increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Nondefense decreased 8.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.7 percent. Real state and local government increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent. The real change in business inventories added 1.4 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 1.6 percentage points from the third-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $74.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $47.5 billion in the third quarter and an increase of $77.6 billion in the second. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the third. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.4 percent, or $107.5 billion, in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.6 percent, or $90.0 billion. Revisions The preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.4 percentage point, or $7.0 billion, lower than the advance estimate issued last month. The downward revision to the percentage change in GDP reflected an upward revision to imports of goods ($14.5 billion), and downward revisions to government consumption expenditures and gross investment ($3.8 billion) and to PCE for goods ($3.6 billion). These revisions more than offset an upward revision to nonfarm CBI ($14.7 billion). The preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases is 1.4 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the advance estimate. Advance Preliminary (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP............................... 4.3 3.9 Current-dollar GDP..................... 5.9 5.4 Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.5 1.4 * * * BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; selected articles from the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available on BEA's web site: http://www.bea.gov STAT-USA maintains an electronic bulletin board (EBB) and an Internet site, which contain BEA estimates, BEA news releases, and the Survey of Current Business. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 606-5303 Personal income and outlays 606-5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $69.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $35.00 domestic, $43.75 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. * * * Next release -- March 26, 1998, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 1997 (Final) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter 1997 Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997r IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 131.4 186.3 261.2 73.6 84.2 58.0 54.4 69.3 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 109.3 118.8 155.2 38.2 61.7 11.3 66.8 37.3 Durable goods............................ 22.4 27.5 34.4 5.2 20.7 -8.8 27.1 2.8 Nondurable goods......................... 22.7 19.7 26.5 7.3 16.6 -7.8 15.5 -3.6 Services................................. 64.1 71.4 94.7 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.3 36.8 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 46.6 79.6 80.5 7.8 10.3 32.4 37.9 -.1 Nonresidential........................... 58.1 65.2 75.1 11.5 8.1 28.1 37.5 -7.9 Structures............................. 7.4 8.8 6.5 6.9 -1.0 -2.4 3.2 -2.2 Producers' durable equipment........... 51.5 57.7 71.7 3.8 9.9 32.7 36.0 -5.6 Residential.............................. -10.0 15.1 7.5 -3.0 2.2 4.9 1.9 6.6 Change in business inventories............. -33.3 -2.3 40.7 -5.0 30.8 13.9 -30.1 26.5 Net exports of goods and services.......... 5.8 -15.6 -32.0 33.3 -20.7 -10.3 -27.5 5.6 Exports.................................. 78.8 65.8 106.6 49.7 21.6 39.8 10.5 23.4 Imports.................................. 73.1 81.4 138.5 16.4 42.3 50.2 38.0 17.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -.4 6.0 11.8 .3 -1.3 9.6 3.3 1.3 Federal.................................. -16.3 -6.1 -7.2 -6.1 -6.8 7.3 -1.3 -2.4 National defense....................... -14.3 -4.8 -9.1 -5.8 -9.7 5.5 .9 1.0 Nondefense............................. -2.0 -1.4 1.8 -.3 2.8 1.7 -2.2 -3.2 State and local.......................... 15.9 12.1 19.0 6.4 5.4 2.4 4.6 3.6 Residual................................... 1.3 -1.9 -.6 -.6 1.5 .4 -1.3 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.6 3.3 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 3.1 Durable goods............................ 4.0 4.7 5.6 3.5 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.7 Nondurable goods......................... 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.0 Services................................. 2.5 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 5.1 8.3 7.7 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.4 .0 Nonresidential........................... 9.0 9.2 9.7 5.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -3.5 Structures............................. 4.3 4.8 3.5 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -4.3 Producers' durable equipment........... 10.8 10.9 12.2 2.6 6.7 23.0 24.1 -3.3 Residential.............................. -3.8 5.9 2.7 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.7 Exports of goods and services.............. 11.1 8.3 12.4 25.5 9.9 18.4 4.4 10.0 Imports of goods and services.............. 8.9 9.1 14.3 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.6 6.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... .0 .5 .9 .1 -.4 3.1 1.1 .4 Federal.................................. -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.1 National defense....................... -4.3 -1.5 -2.8 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.3 Nondefense............................. -1.4 -.9 1.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 State and local.......................... 2.1 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 2.2 -1.8 -2.2 -4.3 -1.8 -.7 -2.0 -2.1 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 2.2 -2.2 -3.9 .0 -5.3 -7.6 -3.0 -2.2 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.6 2.4 2.0 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 Durable goods............................ 1.0 -.4 -1.6 -1.0 -.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.3 Nondurable goods......................... 1.7 2.6 1.9 3.7 2.4 .0 1.3 1.2 Services................................. 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.3 -.1 -.2 -.4 -.9 -.2 .3 -.1 Nonresidential........................... .4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.5 -2.0 -1.5 -.8 -1.0 Structures............................. 4.2 2.3 3.3 2.5 2.8 3.9 4.2 3.9 Producers' durable equipment........... -1.0 -2.3 -3.1 -3.0 -3.8 -3.5 -2.6 -2.8 Residential.............................. 3.6 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.2 2.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.5 3.5 1.4 1.4 3.2 Federal.................................. 3.3 3.4 2.4 2.5 4.9 1.3 .9 3.4 National defense....................... 3.1 3.9 2.4 2.8 4.3 1.1 .6 2.7 Nondefense............................. 3.9 2.3 2.5 1.7 6.1 1.5 1.5 4.9 State and local.......................... 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997r IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,742.1 6,928.4 7,189.6 7,017.4 7,101.6 7,159.6 7,214.0 7,283.3 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 791.2 857.0 963.6 901.1 922.7 962.5 973.0 996.4 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 890.1 971.5 1,110.0 1,006.6 1,048.9 1,099.1 1,137.1 1,154.9 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,837.5 7,037.7 7,325.3 7,118.4 7,220.9 7,286.9 7,364.6 7,428.7 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,595.3 4,714.1 4,869.3 4,756.4 4,818.1 4,829.4 4,896.2 4,933.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 962.1 1,041.7 1,122.2 1,068.7 1,079.0 1,111.4 1,149.3 1,149.2 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 27.3 25.0 65.7 32.9 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,251.9 1,257.9 1,269.7 1,261.8 1,260.5 1,270.1 1,273.4 1,274.7 Less: Change in business inventories....... 27.3 25.0 65.7 32.9 63.7 77.6 47.5 74.0 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,808.1 7,010.2 7,254.6 7,082.7 7,153.1 7,204.7 7,310.9 7,349.7 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,712.7 6,901.0 7,119.2 6,981.7 7,034.1 7,077.7 7,160.3 7,204.5 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,748.7 6,932.0 ..... 7,023.1 7,091.8 7,144.4 7,198.8 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 7,265.4 7,636.0 8,081.0 7,792.9 7,933.6 8,034.3 8,124.3 8,231.8 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 7,235.3 7,610.2 8,012.7 7,761.0 7,867.4 7,953.2 8,075.3 8,154.7 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,351.4 7,730.9 8,181.8 7,881.5 8,032.4 8,123.1 8,235.6 8,335.9 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 7,321.3 7,705.0 8,113.4 7,849.6 7,966.3 8,042.0 8,186.6 8,258.9 GNP.................................... 7,270.6 7,637.7 ..... 7,796.1 7,919.2 8,013.6 8,103.5 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.9 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.5 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.5 Gross domestic purchases................. 1.9 2.9 4.1 2.5 5.9 3.7 4.3 3.5 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.3 3.0 3.5 2.7 4.0 2.9 6.0 2.1 GNP...................................... 2.0 2.7 ..... 4.9 4.0 3.0 3.1 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.2 7.4 5.2 4.6 5.4 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.6 5.6 4.4 6.3 4.0 Gross domestic purchases................. 4.5 5.2 5.8 4.8 7.9 4.6 5.7 5.0 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.1 6.1 3.9 7.4 3.6 GNP...................................... 4.5 5.0 ..... 6.8 6.5 4.9 4.6 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.5 2.2 1.7 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.0 .9 1.3 1.4 GNP...................................... 2.5 2.3 ..... 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.9 .9 1.3 1.4 GNP.................................... 2.5 2.3 ..... 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.4 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1996 1997r IV 96 II 97 III 97 IV 97r 1996 1997r IV 96 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product............... 7636.0 8081.0 7792.9 8034.3 8124.3 8231.8 6928.4 7189.6 7017.4 7159.6 7214.0 7283.3 Personal consumption expenditures......... 5207.6 5488.1 5308.1 5432.1 5527.4 5587.2 4714.1 4869.3 4756.4 4829.4 4896.2 4933.5 Durable goods........................... 634.5 659.1 638.2 644.5 667.3 666.2 611.1 645.5 617.1 629.0 656.1 658.9 Motor vehicles and parts.............. 261.3 263.3 258.9 252.7 268.7 266.1 231.3 233.1 228.0 223.1 238.7 237.4 Furniture and household equipment..... 252.6 267.3 255.9 265.4 269.9 270.3 269.5 296.3 276.8 292.3 301.1 304.4 Other................................. 120.6 128.5 123.4 126.5 128.8 129.8 113.3 121.4 116.3 119.7 121.7 122.9 Nondurable goods........................ 1534.7 1592.1 1560.1 1578.9 1600.8 1601.4 1432.3 1458.8 1441.2 1450.0 1465.5 1461.9 Food.................................. 756.1 776.5 766.6 771.4 779.3 779.6 689.7 689.9 689.0 688.2 689.5 687.4 Clothing and shoes.................... 264.3 277.2 266.2 274.8 280.5 278.5 267.7 277.9 270.0 273.8 281.3 279.3 Gasoline and oil...................... 122.6 124.7 126.0 121.6 123.5 124.9 114.1 116.0 114.8 116.1 116.2 117.0 Fuel oil and coal..................... 11.6 10.8 12.0 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.6 10.0 10.3 10.1 10.4 9.9 Other................................. 380.1 402.9 389.3 400.0 406.5 408.0 351.2 366.8 358.3 363.4 370.0 370.2 Services................................ 3038.4 3236.9 3109.8 3208.7 3259.3 3319.6 2671.0 2765.7 2698.2 2749.8 2776.1 2812.9 Housing............................... 787.2 826.5 800.7 821.2 831.9 842.2 700.2 713.8 704.8 712.0 715.6 719.2 Household operation................... 315.9 328.6 321.8 326.7 328.8 338.1 289.6 295.1 291.7 294.2 295.7 302.7 Electricity and gas................. 125.3 127.0 126.8 127.2 125.2 130.7 117.8 116.7 117.7 117.8 115.7 119.5 Other household operation........... 190.6 201.6 195.0 199.5 203.6 207.4 171.7 178.2 173.9 176.2 179.7 182.9 Transportation........................ 218.4 236.3 224.8 233.4 238.5 244.4 194.6 202.7 197.0 200.9 203.9 206.7 Medical care.......................... 808.1 855.1 826.9 849.6 859.7 870.1 688.1 712.0 697.1 708.8 714.2 720.5 Other................................. 908.9 990.5 935.6 977.9 1000.4 1024.7 799.4 842.6 808.4 834.5 847.1 864.5 Gross private domestic investment......... 1116.5 1240.9 1151.1 1242.0 1250.2 1277.8 1069.1 1195.7 1104.8 1197.1 1204.6 1231.8 Fixed investment........................ 1090.7 1172.6 1119.2 1160.8 1201.3 1200.8 1041.7 1122.2 1068.7 1111.4 1149.3 1149.2 Nonresidential........................ 781.4 845.4 807.2 836.3 872.0 861.9 771.7 846.8 800.8 837.0 874.5 866.6 Structures.......................... 215.2 229.9 227.0 226.8 232.9 232.5 188.7 195.2 196.9 193.5 196.7 194.5 Nonresidential buildings, including farm................... 159.8 174.4 171.2 172.1 177.5 174.2 140.0 148.3 148.4 147.1 150.1 145.8 Utilities......................... 33.3 33.1 34.1 33.7 33.2 33.6 29.3 28.1 29.5 28.7 28.0 28.2 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................ 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.6 16.2 16.0 13.9 13.2 13.8 13.0 13.4 13.0 Other structures.................. 6.2 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.9 8.8 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.1 7.5 Producers' durable equipment........ 566.2 615.5 580.2 609.5 639.1 629.4 586.0 657.7 606.7 649.3 685.3 679.7 Information processing and related equipment........................ 195.1 212.2 200.3 208.4 219.5 218.0 253.1 305.9 270.4 296.9 320.5 324.9 Computers and peripheral equipment...................... 78.7 85.3 81.0 84.5 88.1 86.8 160.8 225.3 182.4 216.1 240.5 248.8 Other........................... 116.3 126.9 119.3 123.9 131.3 131.2 116.3 127.2 119.3 124.4 131.5 131.5 Industrial equipment.............. 127.5 134.8 127.9 134.9 137.5 138.9 117.0 123.1 116.9 123.5 125.6 126.6 Transportation and related equipment........................ 134.5 149.1 140.1 147.1 159.9 151.5 125.0 137.4 129.7 136.0 146.8 139.5 Other............................. 109.1 119.5 111.9 119.1 122.2 121.0 100.8 109.5 102.5 109.1 112.1 110.8 Residential........................... 309.2 327.2 312.0 324.6 329.3 338.9 272.1 279.6 271.1 278.2 280.1 286.7 Structures.......................... 301.7 319.3 304.4 316.7 321.4 331.0 265.0 272.1 263.9 270.8 272.6 279.1 Single family structures.......... 159.1 163.7 160.6 162.5 163.1 168.1 136.6 136.8 136.2 136.5 135.7 138.9 Multifamily structures............ 20.3 22.8 20.1 23.0 22.3 24.0 18.6 20.2 18.0 20.4 19.6 21.0 Other............................. 122.3 132.8 123.7 131.2 135.9 138.8 110.2 115.7 110.0 114.4 117.9 119.9 Producers' durable equipment........ 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.1 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.5 Change in business inventories.......... 25.9 68.3 31.9 81.1 48.9 77.0 25.0 65.7 32.9 77.6 47.5 74.0 Farm.................................. 2.9 6.6 3.2 6.2 8.1 8.5 2.6 8.0 6.4 7.5 9.5 9.8 Nonfarm............................... 23.0 61.7 28.7 74.9 40.9 68.6 22.5 57.8 26.5 70.1 38.3 64.4 Manufacturing....................... 10.6 23.1 13.3 30.9 15.8 23.5 9.9 21.7 12.3 29.0 14.8 22.3 Durable goods..................... 10.2 13.4 6.8 19.1 10.3 11.3 9.7 12.8 6.6 18.2 9.9 10.8 Nondurable goods.................. .4 9.7 6.4 11.8 5.5 12.3 .4 8.9 5.7 10.8 5.0 11.3 Wholesale trade..................... 3.3 21.8 10.1 26.0 15.8 21.0 4.0 20.6 9.4 24.6 14.9 19.8 Durable goods..................... 2.5 11.8 -5.5 23.5 4.0 4.1 2.4 11.3 -5.2 22.7 3.8 4.0 Nondurable goods.................. .8 10.0 15.6 2.4 11.8 16.9 1.6 9.1 13.9 2.3 10.8 15.3 Retail trade........................ 4.1 7.3 1.1 8.3 3.0 17.5 4.0 6.9 .9 7.7 2.8 16.5 Durable goods..................... 1.9 5.4 -3.3 2.4 1.7 16.1 1.7 4.9 -3.0 2.0 1.5 14.7 Motor vehicle dealers........... -1.6 .8 -5.3 -4.0 -.6 10.6 -1.4 .7 -4.7 -3.7 -.6 9.5 Other........................... 3.5 4.6 2.0 6.4 2.3 5.5 3.3 4.3 1.8 5.9 2.1 5.1 Nondurable goods.................. 2.3 2.0 4.4 5.9 1.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 4.1 5.8 1.3 1.4 Other............................... 5.0 9.4 4.3 9.8 6.3 6.5 4.5 8.6 3.9 8.9 5.7 5.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1996 1997r IV 96 II 97 III 97 IV 97r 1996 1997r IV 96 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services......... -94.8 -100.8 -88.6 -88.7 -111.3 -104.2 -114.4 -146.4 -105.6 -136.6 -164.1 -158.5 Exports................................. 870.9 958.0 904.6 960.3 965.8 983.8 857.0 963.6 901.1 962.5 973.0 996.4 Goods................................. 617.5 686.5 640.5 690.0 691.1 708.7 628.4 725.2 666.2 725.8 731.8 757.0 Agricultural products............... 61.5 58.3 61.8 56.4 58.1 61.3 48.6 49.3 51.7 47.2 49.5 53.0 Nonagricultural products............ 556.0 628.2 578.7 633.5 632.9 647.3 581.3 679.5 616.0 682.8 686.1 707.4 Services.............................. 253.3 271.5 264.2 270.3 274.8 275.1 229.9 242.3 236.8 240.8 245.0 244.5 Imports................................. 965.7 1058.8 993.2 1049.0 1077.1 1088.0 971.5 1110.0 1006.6 1099.1 1137.1 1154.9 Goods................................. 809.0 888.7 834.6 880.1 905.6 913.5 823.1 947.7 857.5 938.4 972.7 988.4 Petroleum and products.............. 72.7 72.1 82.2 71.0 70.4 70.4 63.8 67.0 64.0 68.1 69.2 68.6 Nonpetroleum products............... 736.3 816.6 752.4 809.1 835.2 843.1 757.8 880.9 792.7 870.3 903.7 920.1 Services.............................. 156.7 170.0 158.6 168.9 171.6 174.5 149.0 163.5 150.0 161.8 165.8 168.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... 1406.7 1452.7 1422.3 1449.0 1457.9 1470.9 1257.9 1269.7 1261.8 1270.1 1273.4 1274.7 Federal................................. 520.0 523.8 517.6 526.1 525.7 527.4 464.2 457.0 459.6 460.1 458.8 456.4 National defense...................... 352.8 350.4 350.6 350.6 352.1 355.6 317.8 308.7 313.6 309.4 310.3 311.3 Consumption expenditures............ 305.7 311.0 307.6 311.3 311.6 314.8 275.5 273.0 274.4 273.9 273.6 274.2 Gross investment.................... 47.0 39.4 42.9 39.3 40.5 40.8 42.3 35.7 39.2 35.4 36.7 37.1 Nondefense............................ 167.3 173.4 167.0 175.5 173.6 171.8 146.1 147.9 145.7 150.2 148.0 144.8 Consumption expenditures............ 145.7 152.8 146.0 152.9 153.1 153.7 125.3 127.6 125.1 128.2 127.8 126.6 Gross investment.................... 21.5 20.6 21.0 22.6 20.5 18.1 21.0 20.3 20.6 22.2 20.3 17.9 State and local......................... 886.7 928.9 904.7 923.0 932.3 943.5 793.7 812.7 802.3 810.1 814.7 818.3 Consumption expenditures............ 730.9 762.9 743.3 757.4 766.1 776.3 653.6 666.6 657.8 664.3 668.6 672.5 Gross investment.................... 155.7 166.0 161.4 165.6 166.2 167.2 140.1 146.1 144.5 145.8 146.1 145.8 Residual.................................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -44.3 -80.2 -55.9 -77.5 -87.5 -92.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.................... 7636.0 8081.0 7792.9 8034.3 8124.3 8231.8 6928.4 7189.6 7017.4 7159.6 7214.0 7283.3 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world........................ 234.3 ..... 248.8 261.6 269.4 ..... 214.2 ..... 226.0 236.3 242.5 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world........................ 232.6 ..... 245.6 282.3 290.1 ..... 210.2 ..... 219.8 250.8 256.9 ..... Equals: Gross national product............ 7637.7 ..... 7796.1 8013.6 8103.5 ..... 6932.0 ..... 7023.1 7144.4 7198.8 ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income........................... 6495.2 6874.2 6618.4 6829.1 6906.9 7014.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Wage and salary disbursements........... 3632.5 3877.3 3716.9 3841.6 3896.1 3980.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Other labor income...................... 407.6 416.6 409.1 415.1 417.7 421.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 520.3 544.5 528.3 543.6 547.2 552.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Farm.................................. 37.2 40.7 40.4 43.6 40.9 38.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................... 483.1 503.7 487.9 500.0 506.3 514.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................. 146.3 148.0 149.2 148.7 148.0 146.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal dividend income................ 291.2 321.5 295.2 318.3 324.5 330.7 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal interest income................ 735.7 768.8 749.8 766.1 772.6 779.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Transfer payments to persons............ 1068.0 1121.1 1081.5 1117.0 1125.7 1134.7 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.............................. 306.3 323.7 311.5 321.3 324.8 330.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.... 886.9 988.7 922.6 979.2 998.0 1021.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Disposable personal income........ 5608.3 5885.5 5695.8 5849.9 5908.9 5992.8 5076.9 5221.9 5103.8 5200.9 5234.1 5291.6 Less: Personal outlays.................... 5368.8 5660.8 5475.4 5602.8 5700.8 5764.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Personal saving................... 239.6 224.7 220.4 247.0 208.2 227.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............... 4.3 3.8 3.9 4.2 3.5 3.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1995 1996 1997r IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 107.97 110.95 115.14 112.38 113.73 114.66 115.53 116.64 Chain-type price index......... 107.76 110.22 112.45 111.10 111.78 112.27 112.67 113.08 Implicit price deflator........ 107.76 110.21 112.40 111.05 111.71 112.22 112.62 113.02 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 108.90 111.71 115.39 112.72 114.18 114.45 116.03 116.91 Chain-type price index................... 107.89 110.47 112.72 111.61 112.21 112.49 112.91 113.26 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 119.46 125.09 132.12 126.32 130.55 128.75 134.31 134.88 Chain-type price index................. 104.27 103.83 102.16 103.45 103.27 102.50 101.74 101.14 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.86 108.36 110.36 109.03 110.29 109.70 110.87 110.59 Chain-type price index................. 104.48 107.15 109.15 108.26 108.90 108.89 109.24 109.56 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.89 110.86 114.79 111.99 113.05 114.13 115.22 116.75 Chain-type price index................. 110.53 113.76 117.04 115.26 116.02 116.70 117.42 118.02 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.81 132.97 143.25 136.41 137.73 141.86 146.70 146.69 Chain-type price index................... 104.78 104.70 104.51 104.75 104.52 104.47 104.55 104.51 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 126.65 138.33 151.79 143.54 145.00 150.03 156.75 155.35 Chain-type price index................. 102.33 101.26 99.86 100.82 100.31 99.93 99.73 99.47 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 113.94 120.64 123.95 120.18 121.17 123.36 124.19 127.10 Chain-type price index................. 110.93 113.64 117.03 115.10 115.68 116.65 117.57 118.21 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 123.74 134.03 150.71 140.92 144.30 150.53 152.17 155.83 Chain-type price index................... 103.44 101.61 99.38 100.35 99.90 99.72 99.21 98.69 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 133.05 145.22 165.93 150.48 156.80 164.30 169.98 172.64 Chain-type price index................... 101.62 99.41 95.51 98.75 97.42 95.52 94.81 94.29 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.06 99.54 100.47 99.85 99.74 100.50 100.77 100.86 Chain-type price index................... 108.28 111.83 114.47 112.76 113.74 114.14 114.54 115.44 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 89.08 87.92 86.56 87.04 85.76 87.14 86.89 86.44 Chain-type price index................. 108.34 112.03 114.73 112.74 114.10 114.46 114.71 115.67 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 106.23 107.88 110.46 109.04 109.78 110.10 110.73 111.22 Chain-type price index................. 108.24 111.71 114.31 112.77 113.54 113.95 114.44 115.32 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.62 110.64 114.14 111.93 112.77 113.47 114.80 115.50 Chain-type price index................. 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.17 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.19 Implicit price deflator................ 107.79 110.28 112.55 111.16 111.85 112.37 112.78 113.19 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 108.98 112.17 116.76 113.46 115.09 116.14 117.38 118.41 Chain-type price index................. 107.52 109.86 111.77 110.79 111.32 111.55 111.90 112.29 Implicit price deflator................ 107.52 109.85 111.69 110.72 111.24 111.48 111.83 112.21 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.88 110.81 ..... 112.27 113.37 114.21 115.08 ..... Chain-type price index................. 107.74 110.19 ..... 111.06 111.73 112.22 112.62 ..... Implicit price deflator................ 107.73 110.18 ..... 111.01 111.67 112.17 112.57 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Note" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.8 3.0 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 .5 3.3 5.3 .9 5.6 3.1 Durable goods........................ 6.4 3.8 4.3 11.0 -3.0 3.9 9.3 2.0 4.8 9.7 -1.9 3.5 14.1 -5.4 18.4 1.7 Nondurable goods..................... 5.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 1.7 .9 .7 .7 1.7 2.6 .6 2.1 4.7 -2.1 4.3 -1.0 Services............................. 2.7 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.7 2.2 2.3 3.5 3.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment 3.2 11.9 4.2 7.0 7.6 -.7 3.5 5.9 10.7 14.4 10.1 3.0 3.9 12.6 14.4 .0 Nonresidential....................... .4 9.9 7.7 12.6 14.2 5.7 1.6 4.9 11.7 13.0 16.5 5.9 4.1 14.6 19.2 -3.5 Structures......................... -14.8 21.1 -1.1 2.3 9.5 4.3 .7 -5.8 8.2 7.9 10.0 15.3 -2.1 -4.7 6.7 -4.3 Producers' durable equipment....... 7.0 5.9 11.4 16.9 16.1 6.2 2.0 9.4 13.1 14.9 19.1 2.6 6.7 23.0 24.1 -3.3 Residential.......................... 10.0 16.6 -3.1 -5.0 -7.0 -15.5 8.4 8.5 8.3 17.9 -4.5 -4.3 3.3 7.4 2.7 9.7 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... -1.8 17.7 10.6 14.7 7.2 9.3 13.5 11.5 1.7 9.6 1.9 25.5 9.9 18.4 4.4 10.0 Imports of goods and services.......... 7.6 19.0 13.1 9.9 10.0 7.7 2.3 2.4 13.1 14.1 13.2 6.8 17.9 20.5 14.6 6.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -4.0 .4 8.2 -3.8 .6 -.1 -.7 -5.4 1.8 7.2 -1.1 .1 -.4 3.1 1.1 .4 Federal.............................. -10.7 -4.9 13.3 -11.3 -1.1 -4.5 -1.3 -16.4 7.5 8.8 -4.2 -5.2 -5.8 6.6 -1.1 -2.1 National defense................... -16.7 1.0 13.8 -18.6 -1.1 -1.6 -4.0 -15.9 6.1 11.0 -4.6 -7.1 -11.8 7.5 1.2 1.3 Nondefense......................... 3.9 -16.6 12.2 6.5 -.9 -10.3 4.8 -17.5 10.5 4.3 -3.2 -1.0 8.0 4.9 -5.7 -8.6 State and local...................... .7 4.0 5.1 1.2 1.7 2.6 -.4 1.9 -1.4 6.3 .7 3.3 2.7 1.2 2.3 1.8 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.2 3.4 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 5.2 .2 4.5 3.0 2.5 4.7 2.5 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 .8 1.3 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 .9 .3 3.0 2.2 1.8 6.0 1.0 4.3 4.9 3.3 3.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.6 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 2.1 2.5 .4 2.2 3.6 .6 3.8 2.1 Durable goods........................ .5 .3 .3 .9 -.3 .3 .7 .2 .4 .8 -.2 .3 1.1 -.5 1.4 .1 Nondurable goods..................... 1.0 .4 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .1 .4 .9 -.4 .8 -.2 Services............................. 1.0 1.3 .8 .7 .9 1.4 .9 .9 1.4 1.2 .4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment .4 1.5 .6 .9 1.0 -.1 .5 .8 1.4 1.9 1.4 .4 .6 1.7 2.0 .0 Nonresidential....................... .0 .9 .7 1.1 1.3 .6 .2 .5 1.1 1.3 1.6 .6 .4 1.4 1.9 -.4 Structures......................... -.4 .5 .0 .1 .2 .1 .0 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 -.1 Producers' durable equipment....... .5 .4 .7 1.1 1.0 .4 .1 .6 .9 1.0 1.3 .2 .5 1.6 1.7 -.3 Residential.......................... .4 .6 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.7 .3 .3 .3 .7 -.2 -.2 .1 .3 .1 .4 Change in business inventories......... 1.8 1.4 -1.5 .9 -.8 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.8 .7 .8 -.2 1.8 .8 -1.6 1.4 Exports of goods and services.......... -.2 1.7 1.0 1.4 .7 1.0 1.4 1.2 .2 1.1 .2 2.7 1.1 2.0 .5 1.1 Imports of goods and services.......... -.8 -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 -.9 -.2 -.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -.8 -2.1 -2.5 -1.7 -.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.8 .1 1.5 -.7 .1 .0 -.1 -1.0 .3 1.3 -.2 .0 -.1 .6 .2 .1 Federal.............................. -.9 -.4 .9 -.9 -.1 -.3 -.1 -1.2 .5 .6 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.1 -.1 National defense................... -1.0 .0 .7 -1.0 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.8 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.6 .3 .1 .1 Nondefense......................... .1 -.4 .3 .1 .0 -.3 .1 -.4 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .1 -.1 -.2 State and local...................... .1 .5 .6 .1 .2 .3 .0 .2 -.2 .7 .1 .4 .3 .1 .3 .2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 3.1 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.7 3.2 4.0 3.4 3.9 3.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.6 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.8 3.7 Durable goods........................ 9.2 7.0 6.0 6.3 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.0 5.0 6.4 3.6 3.9 6.2 2.3 7.2 6.8 Nondurable goods..................... 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 2.2 1.4 Services............................. 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.2 Gross private domestic fixed investment 9.0 9.9 9.3 6.6 7.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 8.6 10.2 9.5 7.7 7.3 8.3 7.5 Nonresidential....................... 8.4 7.8 8.5 7.6 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.9 7.7 11.4 11.7 9.8 10.2 10.8 8.2 Structures......................... -1.0 2.4 1.3 1.1 7.6 3.7 4.1 2.0 1.7 2.6 4.9 10.3 7.6 4.3 3.5 -1.2 Producers' durable equipment....... 12.4 10.0 11.5 10.2 12.5 12.6 10.1 8.3 7.6 9.7 14.1 12.2 10.6 12.5 13.7 12.0 Residential.......................... 10.2 15.0 11.2 4.2 .0 -7.8 -5.1 -1.9 1.9 10.7 7.3 3.9 2.7 .4 2.2 5.8 Exports of goods and services.......... 4.4 6.7 11.7 10.0 12.5 10.4 11.1 10.3 8.9 9.0 6.1 9.3 11.4 13.6 14.3 10.6 Imports of goods and services.......... 10.2 11.8 14.2 12.3 13.0 10.2 7.5 5.6 6.3 7.8 10.6 11.8 12.9 14.5 14.8 14.7 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.7 -.8 1.4 .1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2 .6 .5 2.0 1.4 .4 .9 1.0 Federal.............................. -4.9 -5.3 -1.0 -3.9 -1.4 -1.3 -4.6 -6.0 -4.1 -.9 -1.6 1.5 -1.7 -2.3 -1.5 -.7 National defense................... -6.7 -5.8 -1.2 -6.0 -1.9 -2.6 -6.6 -5.9 -4.2 -1.3 -1.4 1.1 -3.5 -4.3 -2.8 -.7 Nondefense......................... -.7 -4.0 -.6 .9 -.3 1.5 -.2 -6.4 -3.8 -.1 -2.1 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.4 -.6 State and local...................... 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.3 1.4 .7 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 3.7 3.2 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... -2.1 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 3.8 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.6 3.3 Durable goods........................ -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 4.0 4.7 5.6 Nondurable goods..................... .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 Services............................. 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 3.5 Gross private domestic fixed investment -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.1 8.3 7.7 Nonresidential....................... -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.0 9.2 9.7 Structures......................... -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.8 3.5 Producers' durable equipment....... -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.9 12.2 Residential.......................... -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 5.9 2.7 Exports of goods and services.......... -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.1 8.3 12.4 Imports of goods and services.......... -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.9 9.1 14.3 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .0 .5 .9 Federal.............................. 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.3 -1.6 National defense................... 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.3 -1.5 -2.8 Nondefense......................... -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.4 -.9 1.2 State and local...................... -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.6 2.4 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.2 Gross domestic purchases price index. 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current-dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys. The real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures based on a "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1996), a variant of the standard quarterly formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. For this period, BEA uses weights from two adjacent quarters to calculate the change from the preceding quarter. BEA also publishes a second measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator." The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. Its values are very similar to those of the "chain-type" price index. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates. Reference: "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey of Current Business.