FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 1997 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 97-04 Recorded message: 606-5306 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 1996 (PRELIMINARY) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. Real GDP increased $66.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $35.8 billion in the third. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 4.7 percent (see "Revisions" on pages 2 and 3). The increase in fourth-quarter real GDP was more than accounted for by increases in exports and in personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The acceleration in fourth-quarter GDP growth is more than accounted for by a sharp turnaround in exports and an acceleration in PCE. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. The step-up in prices was more than accounted for by energy prices, which increased in the fourth quarter after decreasing in the third. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the third. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 17.5 percent in the third. Real nonresidential structures increased 25.2 percent, compared with an increase of 8.4 percent. Producers' durable equipment decreased 0.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 20.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.2 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 24.8 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 9.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.5 percent in the third. National defense decreased 7.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.5 percent. Nondefense decreased 0.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent. Real state and local government increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent. Real final sales of domestic product increased 5.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the third. The real change in business inventories subtracted $18.1 billion from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after adding $27.4 billion to the third-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $16.4 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter and an increase of $7.1 billion in the second. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in the third. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.3 percent, or $99.1 billion, in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $71.2 billion. Revisions The preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.8 percentage point, or $14.3 billion, lower than the advance estimate issued last month. The revision was more than accounted for by a downward revision to the change in business inventories ($15.5 billion). There was also a downward revision to federal defense expenditures ($4.3 billion), and there were upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures for services ($3.5 billion) and to fixed investment ($3.1 billion). The preliminary estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases is 2.5 percent, the same as in the advance estimate. Advance Preliminary (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP............................... 4.7 3.9 Current-dollar GDP..................... 6.2 5.3 Gross domestic purchases price index... 2.5 2.5 * * * BEA estimates are available in several forms in addition to the printed news releases. News releases are available at the time of public release through three subscription services offered by the Commerce Department's STAT-USA. Information on how to receive releases by FAX may be obtained by calling (202) 482-1986 (voice). Information about the Economic Bulletin Board (EBB) and about Internet services may be obtained at the same voice number and on-line, as follows: EBB (202) 482-3870 Internet http://www.stat-usa.gov In addition, BEA's most frequently requested statistical series are available on the Internet, as follows: þ The Federal Statistics Briefing Room (FSBR) on the White House web site provides summary statistics for GDP and other major aggregates on its output, income, and international statistics pages. http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr þ The FSBR provides links to BEA's web site, which provides summary tables and charts on BEA's national, international, and regional data. http://www.bea.gov þ BEA's web site provides links to detailed BEA databases on STAT-USA's Internet subscription service. http://www.stat-usa.gov Summary estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers: (202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product 5303 Personal income and outlays 5362 Summary of international transactions Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $90.00 domestic. Second class mail: annual subscription $49.00 domestic, $61.25 foreign; single issue $11.00 domestic, $13.75 foreign. In addition, the Survey of Current Business is now available on the Internet in a searchable, retrievable electronic format at least a week before the printed version. To subscribe to STAT-USA's World Wide Web system, go to http://www.stat-usa.gov. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT- USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year. For further information, call (202) 482-1986. * * * Next release -- March 28, 1997, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 1996 (Final) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter 1996 Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Prices: Change From Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996r IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real gross domestic product (GDP)..... 222.3 134.2 164.5 4.3 33.6 78.3 35.8 66.0 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 133.7 104.6 113.1 12.1 39.7 38.5 5.9 39.8 Durable goods............................ 37.9 17.8 31.3 -1.6 11.7 16.4 -4.0 6.2 Nondurable goods......................... 41.7 31.4 19.8 -1.5 12.9 4.8 1.3 5.2 Services................................. 54.7 55.6 62.1 14.7 15.4 17.6 8.3 28.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 84.7 54.8 66.4 8.5 24.8 17.8 26.4 10.0 Nonresidential........................... 58.5 62.2 52.5 4.3 20.2 7.0 30.9 10.4 Structures............................. 2.5 12.3 8.8 .4 3.4 -1.7 3.7 10.9 Producers' durable equipment........... 56.5 50.4 44.2 4.0 16.9 9.2 27.5 -1.2 Residential.............................. 26.2 -6.1 14.2 4.1 4.8 10.4 -3.7 -.2 Change in business inventories............. 39.8 -25.8 -19.4 -18.4 -17.6 10.1 27.4 -18.1 Net exports of goods and services.......... -33.7 -1.9 -6.4 16.7 -19.1 -10.7 -22.7 37.4 Exports.................................. 53.8 63.4 50.4 20.1 3.6 11.2 -1.8 46.4 Imports.................................. 87.4 65.4 56.8 3.5 22.7 21.9 20.9 9.0 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -1.0 .2 10.7 -13.8 5.1 23.5 -2.1 -1.3 Federal.................................. -19.4 -17.5 -5.0 -16.3 6.7 10.5 -4.1 -5.9 National defense....................... -18.4 -17.4 -5.7 -10.3 3.1 7.5 -4.5 -5.7 Nondefense............................. -1.2 -.3 .7 -6.1 3.6 3.1 .2 -.2 State and local.......................... 18.7 18.1 15.9 2.9 -1.8 12.9 2.2 4.7 Residual................................... -2.5 .2 -1.0 -.5 .3 -1.3 .1 -1.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change Real GDP............................. 3.5 2.0 2.4 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 3.1 2.3 2.5 1.1 3.5 3.4 .5 3.4 Durable goods............................ 7.2 3.2 5.4 -1.0 8.2 11.4 -2.6 4.1 Nondurable goods......................... 3.1 2.3 1.4 -.4 3.7 1.3 .4 1.4 Services................................. 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.7 1.3 4.3 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 10.1 6.0 6.8 3.5 10.4 7.2 10.6 3.8 Nonresidential........................... 9.8 9.5 7.3 2.5 11.6 3.8 17.5 5.5 Structures............................. 1.5 7.3 4.9 1.0 7.7 -3.7 8.4 25.2 Producers' durable equipment........... 13.2 10.4 8.3 3.0 13.1 6.7 20.9 -.8 Residential.............................. 10.8 -2.3 5.4 6.4 7.4 16.3 -5.2 -.4 Exports of goods and services.............. 8.2 8.9 6.5 10.7 1.8 5.6 -.9 24.8 Imports of goods and services.............. 12.0 8.0 6.4 1.6 10.6 9.9 9.3 3.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... -.1 .0 .9 -4.3 1.6 7.7 -.6 -.4 Federal.................................. -3.8 -3.6 -1.1 -13.2 6.0 9.4 -3.5 -4.9 National defense....................... -5.2 -5.2 -1.8 -12.3 4.1 10.0 -5.5 -7.1 Nondefense............................. -.7 -.2 .4 -14.8 10.1 8.3 .6 -.6 State and local.......................... 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.5 -.9 6.7 1.1 2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP price index (chain-type weights)....... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 1.1 3.1 .1 -1.0 .2 1.4 -1.8 -2.2 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ .8 2.7 -.2 -2.3 .1 .7 -2.0 3.7 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 Personal consumption expenditures.......... 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.6 2.4 3.2 1.7 2.9 Durable goods............................ 2.1 1.2 -.5 -.7 .8 -1.6 -.6 -.8 Nondurable goods......................... 1.3 1.6 2.6 1.3 3.9 4.8 .2 3.7 Services................................. 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.3 1.9 3.3 3.0 3.2 Gross private domestic fixed investment.... 1.9 1.6 .8 .4 -.1 .5 2.2 .3 Nonresidential........................... 1.4 1.0 .5 -.3 -.2 .1 1.8 .0 Structures............................. 3.3 3.3 2.2 1.8 1.2 2.0 3.4 2.3 Producers' durable equipment........... .7 .2 -.1 -1.0 -.7 -.6 1.1 -.9 Residential.............................. 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.2 .0 1.3 3.3 1.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment...................... 2.0 3.3 2.7 4.2 4.1 -.3 2.5 2.4 Federal.................................. 2.7 3.8 2.3 7.4 2.0 -.7 .9 1.6 National defense....................... 2.3 3.5 2.2 3.2 3.0 1.7 .6 1.5 Nondefense............................. 3.5 4.3 2.5 16.2 .1 -5.4 1.4 1.7 State and local.......................... 1.5 3.0 2.9 2.3 5.4 .0 3.6 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 2.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996r IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product (GDP)............... 6,608.7 6,742.9 6,907.4 6,780.7 6,814.3 6,892.6 6,928.4 6,994.4 Less: Exports of goods and services........ 712.0 775.4 825.8 803.1 806.7 817.9 816.1 862.5 Plus: Imports of goods and services........ 817.6 883.0 939.8 888.0 910.7 932.6 953.5 962.5 Equals: Gross domestic purchases........... 6,711.8 6,847.1 7,017.2 6,862.9 6,914.6 7,003.0 7,060.7 7,090.3 Personal consumption expenditures........ 4,473.2 4,577.8 4,690.9 4,609.4 4,649.1 4,687.6 4,693.5 4,733.3 Gross private domestic fixed investment.. 921.1 975.9 1,042.3 988.5 1,013.3 1,031.1 1,057.5 1,067.5 Change in business inventories (CBI)..... 58.9 33.1 13.7 14.6 -3.0 7.1 34.5 16.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................... 1,260.0 1,260.2 1,270.9 1,249.6 1,254.7 1,278.2 1,276.1 1,274.8 Less: Change in business inventories....... 58.9 33.1 13.7 14.6 -3.0 7.1 34.5 16.4 Equals: Final sales to domestic purchasers................................ 6,653.7 6,813.0 7,002.2 6,846.4 6,915.5 6,995.2 7,024.9 7,073.3 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).................. 6,550.7 6,708.9 6,892.5 6,764.2 6,815.2 6,884.7 6,892.7 6,977.4 Gross national product (GNP)............. 6,606.0 6,737.1 ..... 6,775.6 6,814.9 6,886.5 6,913.7 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP.................................... 6,935.7 7,253.8 7,575.9 7,350.6 7,426.8 7,545.1 7,616.3 7,715.4 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI)........................ 6,876.2 7,216.7 7,560.9 7,332.8 7,428.6 7,537.1 7,579.6 7,698.2 Gross domestic purchases............... 7,030.1 7,348.4 7,675.0 7,417.8 7,513.2 7,644.3 7,736.5 7,806.3 Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 6,970.6 7,311.4 7,660.0 7,400.0 7,514.9 7,636.2 7,699.8 7,789.1 GNP.................................... 6,931.9 7,246.7 ..... 7,344.3 7,426.6 7,537.5 7,598.9 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real measures: GDP...................................... 3.5 2.0 2.4 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.9 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.9 2.4 2.7 1.4 3.0 4.1 .5 5.0 Gross domestic purchases................. 3.9 2.0 2.5 -.7 3.0 5.2 3.3 1.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 3.4 2.4 2.8 .4 4.1 4.7 1.7 2.8 GNP...................................... 3.3 2.0 ..... .8 2.3 4.3 1.6 ..... Current-dollar measures: GDP...................................... 5.8 4.6 4.4 2.3 4.2 6.5 3.8 5.3 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 5.3 5.0 4.8 3.4 5.3 6.0 2.3 6.4 Gross domestic purchases................. 6.3 4.5 4.4 1.1 5.2 7.2 4.9 3.7 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 5.7 4.9 4.8 2.2 6.4 6.6 3.4 4.7 GNP...................................... 5.6 4.5 ..... 2.8 4.6 6.1 3.3 ..... Price indexes (chain-type weights): GDP...................................... 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 Final sales of domestic product (GDP less CBI).......................... 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 Gross domestic purchases................. 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.4 GNP...................................... 2.3 2.5 ..... 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 ..... Addenda: Implicit price deflators: GDP.................................... 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 Gross domestic purchases............... 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.9 GNP.................................... 2.3 2.5 ..... 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.7 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1995 1996r IV 95 II 96 III 96 IV 96r 1995 1996r IV 95 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product............... 7253.8 7575.9 7350.6 7545.1 7616.3 7715.4 6742.9 6907.4 6780.7 6892.6 6928.4 6994.4 Personal consumption expenditures......... 4924.9 5152.0 4990.5 5139.4 5165.4 5242.7 4577.8 4690.9 4609.4 4687.6 4693.5 4733.3 Durable goods........................... 606.4 631.8 612.8 637.6 630.5 633.8 579.8 611.1 587.5 615.6 611.6 617.8 Motor vehicles and parts.............. 247.8 252.3 248.3 256.2 249.8 249.0 221.1 222.2 220.6 225.9 220.0 218.7 Furniture and household equipment..... 241.9 254.3 247.0 255.9 255.9 256.7 251.1 275.7 259.9 276.0 279.0 283.7 Other................................. 116.7 125.2 117.4 125.6 124.7 128.2 109.8 117.1 109.9 117.4 116.9 120.2 Nondurable goods........................ 1485.9 1544.7 1494.2 1544.7 1546.5 1565.5 1421.9 1441.7 1423.2 1440.9 1442.2 1447.4 Food.................................. 747.2 772.4 754.9 767.9 773.3 782.6 702.1 704.7 703.0 704.9 701.6 703.3 Clothing and shoes.................... 254.4 264.3 254.8 266.3 265.1 264.7 257.2 268.1 257.3 268.9 271.0 269.9 Gasoline and oil...................... 114.6 121.5 110.8 127.0 119.8 123.2 113.3 113.5 113.7 114.3 113.4 113.6 Fuel oil and coal..................... 10.0 11.1 10.3 11.0 10.6 11.5 10.3 10.2 10.7 10.1 10.1 9.9 Other................................. 359.7 375.4 363.4 372.5 377.6 383.5 339.3 345.9 338.8 343.5 347.0 351.5 Services................................ 2832.6 2975.5 2883.5 2957.1 2988.5 3043.4 2577.0 2639.1 2599.3 2632.3 2640.6 2668.7 Housing............................... 743.7 779.5 758.1 775.2 783.3 792.6 681.7 693.0 686.3 691.6 693.9 697.5 Household operation................... 294.2 309.7 298.1 310.4 309.2 316.9 276.8 284.0 278.9 285.6 282.2 287.5 Electricity and gas................. 118.0 123.1 118.4 124.7 122.3 124.8 113.6 115.9 113.4 117.9 114.4 115.9 Other household operation........... 176.2 186.5 179.7 185.7 186.9 192.1 163.1 168.0 165.4 167.6 167.6 171.4 Transportation........................ 192.5 204.5 196.9 202.4 206.4 210.8 177.0 184.7 180.0 183.3 185.2 187.8 Medical care.......................... 784.2 816.4 798.5 811.2 818.9 835.1 684.1 698.9 691.2 696.1 699.7 708.7 Other................................. 818.0 865.5 831.8 857.9 870.6 888.1 757.6 778.8 763.0 776.1 779.9 787.4 Gross private domestic investment......... 1065.3 1116.4 1064.0 1096.0 1156.2 1144.3 1010.2 1057.0 1004.9 1038.6 1093.4 1084.3 Fixed investment........................ 1028.2 1101.3 1046.2 1088.0 1119.6 1127.1 975.9 1042.3 988.5 1031.1 1057.5 1067.5 Nonresidential........................ 738.5 790.9 749.7 773.8 807.0 813.9 714.3 766.8 723.3 750.5 781.4 791.8 Structures.......................... 199.7 214.1 204.0 207.4 213.5 227.0 181.1 189.9 183.2 184.9 188.6 199.5 Nonresidential buildings, including farm................... 142.0 152.1 145.8 146.2 151.1 164.0 127.9 134.5 130.3 129.7 133.0 143.8 Utilities......................... 38.5 41.4 40.2 41.5 41.3 41.9 35.1 36.5 36.0 36.8 36.4 36.6 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells............................ 12.0 14.2 11.4 14.1 15.0 14.0 11.2 13.0 10.5 12.9 13.5 12.6 Other structures.................. 7.1 6.3 6.6 5.7 6.1 7.0 6.8 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.6 6.4 Producers' durable equipment........ 538.8 576.8 545.7 566.3 593.5 586.9 534.5 578.7 541.4 567.5 595.0 593.8 Information processing and related equipment........................ 183.2 206.0 191.8 200.8 212.2 212.8 201.1 241.9 214.4 234.1 250.5 257.5 Computers and peripheral equipment...................... 63.6 76.9 69.7 74.2 79.3 80.4 91.5 132.7 105.6 126.3 138.9 148.4 Other........................... 119.6 129.1 122.0 126.6 132.9 132.4 114.2 122.1 116.2 119.7 125.5 125.2 Industrial equipment.............. 124.5 128.8 124.9 131.2 128.7 127.6 116.2 118.3 115.4 120.6 118.0 116.8 Transportation and related equipment........................ 124.9 129.6 123.0 123.7 137.7 131.9 118.1 120.1 115.4 114.9 126.5 121.6 Other............................. 106.2 112.3 106.1 110.7 114.9 114.6 100.8 103.6 99.4 102.6 105.7 104.7 Residential........................... 289.8 310.4 296.5 314.2 312.6 313.2 262.8 277.0 266.3 281.5 277.8 277.6 Stuctures........................... 282.5 303.0 289.2 306.7 305.1 305.7 255.8 269.9 259.3 274.3 270.6 270.4 Single family structures.......... 144.5 155.1 147.0 156.8 157.2 156.0 127.7 135.5 129.1 137.6 136.7 135.3 Multifamily structures............ 18.6 20.7 19.6 22.3 19.1 20.9 17.6 19.4 18.5 21.0 17.9 19.5 Other............................. 119.4 127.2 122.6 127.7 128.8 128.9 110.9 115.5 112.4 116.3 116.6 116.2 Producers' durable equipment........ 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 Change in business inventories.......... 37.0 15.0 17.8 8.0 36.6 17.2 33.1 13.7 14.6 7.1 34.5 16.4 Farm.................................. -2.6 -1.9 -2.1 -3.3 1.2 -1.0 -4.7 -3.6 -4.7 -5.1 -.4 -2.4 Nonfarm............................... 39.6 16.9 19.9 11.3 35.4 18.2 37.2 16.9 19.0 11.7 34.6 18.4 Manufacturing....................... 12.7 6.5 11.9 -4.6 12.2 5.5 11.8 6.5 11.2 -3.9 11.9 6.1 Durable goods..................... 11.8 7.3 12.5 .5 12.0 2.2 11.2 7.0 12.0 .5 11.5 2.2 Nondurable goods.................. .9 -.9 -.6 -5.1 .2 3.4 .8 -.4 -.6 -4.2 .6 3.8 Wholesale trade..................... 15.2 2.8 4.5 7.3 -5.1 2.5 14.3 3.2 4.4 7.3 -3.6 2.8 Durable goods..................... 13.3 2.9 12.7 3.0 6.1 -7.0 12.7 2.8 12.1 2.8 6.0 -6.5 Nondurable goods.................. 1.9 -.1 -8.2 4.3 -11.3 9.5 1.7 .4 -7.4 4.4 -9.0 8.8 Retail trade........................ 3.6 3.4 -7.8 5.4 24.3 6.8 3.5 3.1 -7.1 5.2 22.7 6.1 Durable goods..................... 3.7 1.7 -4.1 7.5 18.0 .7 3.5 1.6 -3.7 6.9 16.9 .6 Motor vehicle dealers........... .9 -3.6 .4 2.2 11.5 -2.1 .9 -3.3 .4 2.0 10.6 -1.9 Other........................... 2.9 5.3 -4.5 5.3 6.5 2.8 2.7 5.0 -4.2 5.0 6.2 2.6 Nondurable goods.................. -.1 1.7 -3.7 -2.1 6.3 6.1 .0 1.5 -3.4 -1.8 5.8 5.5 Other............................... 8.1 4.2 11.4 3.2 4.0 3.4 7.6 4.1 10.6 3.1 3.6 3.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and Disposition of Personal Income--Continued ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at Seasonally adjusted at annual rates annual rates ----------------------------- ----------------------------- 1995 1996r IV 95 II 96 III 96 IV 96r 1995 1996r IV 95 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Net exports of goods and services......... -94.7 -99.1 -67.2 -99.2 -120.2 -90.8 -107.6 -114.0 -84.9 -114.7 -137.4 -100.0 Exports................................. 807.4 855.1 837.0 850.0 844.3 886.7 775.4 825.8 803.1 817.9 816.1 862.5 Goods................................. 581.4 615.1 604.5 610.4 605.4 640.9 565.9 608.9 588.8 600.6 601.1 643.1 Agricultural products............... 57.2 61.2 60.7 60.2 59.9 61.5 49.6 48.5 49.4 45.5 46.5 51.3 Nonagricultural products............ 524.2 553.8 543.8 550.1 545.5 579.4 516.4 561.2 539.8 556.2 555.5 592.6 Services.............................. 225.9 240.1 232.5 239.7 239.0 245.8 210.4 218.0 215.3 218.3 216.1 220.9 Imports................................. 902.0 954.3 904.2 949.2 964.5 977.5 883.0 939.8 888.0 932.6 953.5 962.5 Goods................................. 757.0 802.2 759.0 798.2 812.1 821.9 744.7 796.3 750.0 789.9 810.0 816.9 Petroleum and products.............. 55.1 68.0 53.5 70.1 71.5 74.7 59.2 59.5 58.7 62.0 63.1 57.8 Nonpetroleum products............... 701.9 734.2 705.5 728.2 740.6 747.3 684.2 735.0 689.8 726.4 745.4 757.0 Services.............................. 145.1 152.0 145.2 151.0 152.5 155.6 138.8 144.1 138.5 143.2 144.1 146.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment......................... 1358.3 1406.6 1363.4 1408.8 1414.8 1419.3 1260.2 1270.9 1249.6 1278.2 1276.1 1274.8 Federal................................. 516.6 523.0 507.7 529.6 525.5 518.2 472.3 467.3 456.2 473.4 469.3 463.4 National defense...................... 345.5 347.0 337.1 353.7 348.8 341.4 319.6 313.9 308.8 319.4 314.9 309.2 Consumption expenditures............ 302.3 303.6 300.1 307.4 304.7 303.6 280.1 275.5 275.1 279.6 276.5 274.5 Gross investment.................... 43.3 43.3 37.0 46.3 44.1 37.8 39.6 38.4 33.8 39.9 38.5 34.8 Nondefense............................ 171.0 176.0 170.6 175.8 176.7 176.8 152.3 153.0 147.0 153.7 153.9 153.7 Consumption expenditures............ 151.5 155.2 151.3 156.1 156.6 153.2 133.5 133.0 128.6 134.7 134.4 131.1 Gross investment.................... 19.5 20.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 23.6 18.7 20.0 18.4 18.9 19.4 22.8 State and local......................... 841.7 883.7 855.7 879.2 889.3 901.0 788.6 804.5 794.4 805.5 807.7 812.4 Consumption expenditures............ 682.6 714.1 691.9 710.2 719.3 725.7 639.1 649.0 642.1 649.7 652.4 653.2 Gross investment.................... 159.1 169.6 163.8 169.1 170.0 175.3 149.4 155.5 152.3 155.8 155.3 159.2 Residual.................................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -10.9 -27.4 -17.1 -25.6 -29.7 -34.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product.................... 7253.8 7575.9 7350.6 7545.1 7616.3 7715.4 6742.9 6907.4 6780.7 6892.6 6928.4 6994.4 Plus: Receipts of factor income from the rest of the world........................ 208.3 ..... 213.4 223.9 226.4 ..... 194.2 ..... 197.6 205.4 207.0 ..... Less: Payments of factor income to the rest of the world........................ 215.3 ..... 219.7 231.4 243.8 ..... 199.7 ..... 202.4 211.1 221.4 ..... Equals: Gross national product............ 7246.7 ..... 7344.3 7537.5 7598.9 ..... 6737.1 ..... 6775.6 6886.5 6913.7 ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disposition of personal income Personal income........................... 6115.1 6452.4 6234.5 6412.4 6501.4 6587.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Wage and salary disbursements........... 3430.6 3630.4 3500.2 3606.5 3659.6 3717.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Other labor income...................... 424.0 436.2 430.2 434.0 438.6 442.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments............................ 478.3 518.3 486.7 515.2 526.3 532.0 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Farm.................................. 29.0 46.4 31.8 45.8 51.8 49.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Nonfarm............................... 449.3 471.9 454.9 469.4 474.6 482.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment................. 122.2 126.8 125.8 124.5 127.0 128.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal dividend income................ 214.8 230.6 221.7 229.3 231.5 234.8 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal interest income................ 717.1 738.0 727.2 733.1 742.9 749.9 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Transfer payments to persons............ 1022.6 1079.8 1041.4 1075.6 1085.1 1095.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal contributions for social insurance.............................. 294.5 307.5 298.8 305.8 309.7 313.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.... 794.3 863.9 807.2 870.6 872.5 887.6 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Disposable personal income........ 5320.8 5588.5 5427.3 5541.8 5628.9 5699.7 4945.8 5088.2 5012.9 5054.5 5114.6 5145.9 Less: Personal outlays.................... 5071.5 5314.5 5144.7 5300.7 5329.8 5409.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Equals: Personal saving................... 249.3 273.9 282.6 241.1 299.1 290.2 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income............... 4.7 4.9 5.2 4.3 5.3 5.1 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 4.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 1992=100] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonally adjusted at annual rates --------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996r IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gross domestic product: Chain-type quantity index...... 105.8 108.0 110.6 108.6 109.1 110.4 111.0 112.0 Chain-type price index......... 105.0 107.6 109.9 108.4 109.0 109.6 110.2 110.7 Implicit price deflator........ 104.9 107.6 109.7 108.4 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.3 Personal consumption expenditures: Chain-type quantity index................ 106.0 108.5 111.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 111.2 112.2 Chain-type price index................... 105.1 107.6 110.0 108.3 108.9 109.8 110.2 111.0 Durable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.0 118.7 125.1 120.3 122.7 126.0 125.2 126.5 Chain-type price index................. 103.4 104.6 104.1 104.3 104.6 104.1 104.0 103.8 Nondurable goods: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.2 107.6 109.1 107.7 108.6 109.0 109.1 109.5 Chain-type price index................. 102.8 104.5 107.2 105.0 106.0 107.3 107.3 108.3 Services: Chain-type quantity index.............. 104.6 107.0 109.5 107.9 108.5 109.3 109.6 110.8 Chain-type price index................. 106.7 109.9 112.8 110.9 111.5 112.4 113.2 114.1 Gross private domestic fixed investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 117.6 124.6 133.0 126.2 129.3 131.6 135.0 136.3 Chain-type price index................... 103.7 105.4 106.3 105.9 105.9 106.0 106.6 106.6 Nonresidential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.9 128.0 137.5 129.7 133.3 134.5 140.1 141.9 Chain-type price index................. 102.3 103.4 103.9 103.7 103.7 103.7 104.2 104.2 Residential: Chain-type quantity index.............. 119.2 116.5 122.8 118.1 120.2 124.8 123.2 123.1 Chain-type price index................. 107.0 110.3 112.1 111.3 111.3 111.7 112.6 112.9 Exports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 111.3 121.3 129.1 125.6 126.2 127.9 127.6 134.9 Chain-type price index................... 101.0 104.1 104.3 104.3 104.4 104.7 104.3 103.7 Imports of goods and services: Chain-type quantity index................ 122.2 132.0 140.5 132.7 136.1 139.4 142.5 143.9 Chain-type price index................... 99.5 102.2 102.0 101.9 101.9 102.1 101.5 102.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: Chain-type quantity index................ 99.7 99.7 100.6 98.9 99.3 101.1 101.0 100.9 Chain-type price index................... 104.3 107.8 110.7 109.1 110.2 110.1 110.8 111.5 Federal: Chain-type quantity index.............. 92.8 89.4 88.5 86.4 87.7 89.7 88.9 87.8 Chain-type price index................. 105.4 109.4 111.9 111.3 111.8 111.6 111.9 112.3 State and local: Chain-type quantity index.............. 104.7 107.2 109.3 108.0 107.7 109.5 109.8 110.4 Chain-type price index................. 103.6 106.7 109.8 107.7 109.2 109.2 110.1 110.9 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.0 107.6 110.5 108.4 109.3 110.4 110.5 111.9 Chain-type price index................. 105.0 107.6 109.9 108.4 109.1 109.7 110.2 110.7 Implicit price deflator................ 105.0 107.6 109.7 108.4 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.3 Gross domestic purchases: Chain-type quantity index.............. 107.0 109.1 111.8 109.4 110.2 111.6 112.5 113.0 Chain-type price index................. 104.8 107.3 109.6 108.1 108.7 109.3 109.8 110.5 Implicit price deflator................ 104.7 107.3 109.4 108.1 108.7 109.2 109.6 110.1 Gross national product: Chain-type quantity index.............. 105.6 107.7 ..... 108.3 108.9 110.1 110.5 ..... Chain-type price index................. 104.9 107.6 ..... 108.4 109.0 109.6 110.2 ..... Implicit price deflator................ 104.9 107.6 ..... 108.4 109.0 109.5 109.9 ..... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See "Explanatory Notes" at end of tables. Table 5a.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 93 II 93 III 93 IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding quarter (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... -.1 1.9 2.3 4.8 2.5 4.9 3.5 3.0 .4 .7 3.8 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures...... .7 2.7 3.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.8 3.1 1.0 3.1 2.4 1.1 3.5 3.4 .5 3.4 Durable goods........................ .8 11.2 7.3 10.2 5.8 4.3 5.6 12.4 -8.9 7.0 9.3 -1.0 8.2 11.4 -2.6 4.1 Nondurable goods..................... -.9 2.3 2.8 1.7 3.9 3.2 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 .5 -.4 3.7 1.3 .4 1.4 Services............................. 1.5 1.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.5 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.7 1.3 4.3 Gross private domestic fixed investment 4.9 2.8 7.2 19.5 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.4 8.6 -1.6 6.1 3.5 10.4 7.2 10.6 3.8 Nonresidential....................... 6.0 6.3 4.7 17.5 7.3 7.1 13.8 12.2 15.4 3.5 4.9 2.5 11.6 3.8 17.5 5.5 Structures......................... 3.5 -5.3 .8 7.5 -11.8 15.7 .2 13.0 9.9 3.4 6.3 1.0 7.7 -3.7 8.4 25.2 Producers' durable equipment....... 7.1 11.4 6.3 21.7 15.5 4.1 19.4 11.9 17.4 3.5 4.3 3.0 13.1 6.7 20.9 -.8 Residential.......................... 2.1 -5.1 13.2 24.3 12.8 12.7 -1.8 -.1 -6.3 -13.4 9.2 6.4 7.4 16.3 -5.2 -.4 Change in business inventories......... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Exports of goods and services.......... -1.3 8.3 -8.5 23.4 -1.5 15.9 9.7 16.5 2.6 5.9 10.7 10.7 1.8 5.6 -.9 24.8 Imports of goods and services.......... 8.3 12.7 4.1 17.5 8.2 18.4 10.7 10.3 11.2 4.5 .0 1.6 10.6 9.9 9.3 3.8 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -4.6 .2 1.0 1.5 -4.3 -.8 7.0 -1.4 -1.2 .8 -.6 -4.3 1.6 7.7 -.6 -.4 Federal.............................. -12.7 -4.9 -2.9 -.7 -11.4 -5.3 11.5 -5.9 -6.5 -1.3 -5.6 -13.2 6.0 9.4 -3.5 -4.9 National defense................... -15.2 -5.1 -5.8 -.4 -17.4 .7 13.5 -16.1 -7.4 .6 -7.6 -12.3 4.1 10.0 -5.5 -7.1 Nondefense......................... -6.7 -4.4 3.9 -1.3 3.1 -17.0 7.3 20.2 -4.7 -5.2 -1.3 -14.8 10.1 8.3 .6 -.6 State and local...................... 1.7 3.9 3.8 3.0 .7 2.2 4.2 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.7 1.5 -.9 6.7 1.1 2.4 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... -.9 1.7 2.3 5.0 1.2 3.0 4.2 3.5 .6 2.1 3.6 1.4 3.0 4.1 .5 5.0 Gross domestic purchases price index. 3.1 2.4 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.0 2.0 2.8 2.8 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribution to change in GDP (percentage points at annual rates) Real gross domestic product..... -.1 1.9 2.3 4.8 2.5 4.9 3.5 3.0 .4 .7 3.8 .3 2.0 4.7 2.1 3.9 Personal consumption expenditures...... .3 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.1 .6 2.1 1.6 .7 2.4 2.3 .3 2.3 Durable goods........................ .0 .9 .6 .8 .5 .4 .5 1.0 -.8 .6 .7 -.1 .7 .9 -.2 .3 Nondurable goods..................... -.1 .5 .6 .4 .8 .7 .8 .7 .5 .4 .1 -.1 .7 .3 .1 .3 Services............................. .4 .5 1.4 .8 .6 1.3 .6 .4 .9 1.2 .8 .8 .9 1.1 .5 1.7 Gross private domestic fixed investment .4 .4 .9 2.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 -.2 .8 .5 1.4 1.0 1.5 .6 Nonresidential....................... .3 .6 .4 1.5 .7 .7 1.2 1.1 1.4 .3 .5 .2 1.1 .4 1.7 .6 Structures......................... .1 -.1 .0 .2 -.3 .4 .0 .3 .3 .1 .2 .0 .2 -.1 .2 .6 Producers' durable equipment....... .3 .7 .4 1.3 1.0 .3 1.2 .8 1.2 .2 .3 .2 .9 .5 1.5 -.1 Residential.......................... .1 -.2 .5 .9 .5 .5 -.1 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 .2 .3 .6 -.2 .0 Change in business inventories......... .5 .2 .0 -.2 1.3 2.0 -.6 -.4 -.1 -1.3 .3 -1.0 -1.0 .5 1.6 -1.1 Exports of goods and services.......... -.1 .8 -.9 2.1 -.2 1.5 1.0 1.6 .3 .6 1.1 1.1 .2 .6 -.1 2.6 Imports of goods and services.......... -.5 -1.4 -.4 -1.8 -.9 -2.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -.5 .0 -.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.6 .0 .2 .3 -.9 -.2 1.3 -.3 -.2 .1 -.1 -.8 .3 1.4 -.1 -.1 Federal.............................. -.7 -.4 -.2 -.1 -1.0 -.4 .8 -.5 -.5 -.1 -.4 -.9 .4 .6 -.2 -.3 National defense................... -.6 -.3 -.3 .0 -1.0 .0 .7 -.9 -.4 .0 -.4 -.6 .2 .4 -.3 -.3 Nondefense......................... -.1 -.1 .1 .0 .1 -.4 .2 .4 -.1 -.1 .0 -.3 .2 .2 .0 .0 State and local...................... .1 .5 .4 .3 .1 .3 .5 .2 .3 .2 .3 .2 -.1 .8 .1 .3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 5b.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I 93 II 93 III 93 IV 93 I 94 II 94 III 94 IV 94 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from quarter one year ago Real gross domestic product..... 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.0 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.2 3.2 Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.7 Durable goods........................ 6.3 8.0 7.5 7.3 8.6 6.9 6.5 7.0 3.1 3.7 4.6 1.3 5.8 6.8 3.8 5.2 Nondurable goods..................... 1.7 2.5 2.5 1.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.7 Services............................. 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.7 Gross private domestic fixed investment 7.5 4.9 6.1 8.4 9.4 11.0 11.4 8.7 8.6 6.0 5.3 4.1 4.5 6.8 7.9 8.0 Nonresidential....................... 6.1 5.2 5.8 8.5 8.8 9.1 11.4 10.1 12.1 11.1 8.9 6.4 5.6 5.6 8.7 9.5 Structures......................... -3.3 -3.6 -1.4 1.6 -2.4 2.5 2.4 3.6 9.5 6.5 8.1 5.1 4.5 2.7 3.2 8.9 Producers' durable equipment....... 10.4 9.1 8.9 11.5 13.6 11.7 15.0 12.6 13.0 12.9 9.1 6.9 5.9 6.7 10.7 9.7 Residential.......................... 11.2 4.4 6.8 8.1 10.8 15.7 11.6 5.7 .9 -5.6 -3.0 -1.5 2.0 9.7 5.9 4.2 Exports of goods and services.......... 2.2 3.8 .9 4.8 4.7 6.5 11.5 9.9 11.0 8.5 8.8 7.4 7.2 7.2 4.2 7.4 Imports of goods and services.......... 8.5 8.4 9.1 10.5 10.5 11.9 13.6 11.8 12.6 9.2 6.4 4.2 4.1 5.4 7.8 8.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. -.1 .1 -.4 -.5 -.4 -.7 .8 .0 .8 1.2 -.6 -1.3 -.6 1.0 1.0 2.0 Federal.............................. -1.7 -2.6 -4.5 -5.4 -5.1 -5.2 -1.8 -3.1 -1.8 -.8 -4.9 -6.7 -3.8 -1.3 -.7 1.6 National defense................... -3.4 -4.4 -7.2 -6.8 -7.4 -6.0 -1.5 -5.7 -2.9 -3.0 -7.8 -6.8 -4.0 -1.9 -1.3 .1 Nondefense......................... 2.4 1.8 2.2 -2.2 .3 -3.2 -2.5 2.5 .5 3.9 1.8 -6.7 -3.2 .1 .5 4.6 State and local...................... 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.3 2.4 2.0 2.3 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 2.2 3.2 Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996r ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent change from preceding year Real gross domestic product..... 2.5 -2.1 4.0 6.8 3.7 3.0 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.3 -1.0 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.0 2.4 Personal consumption expenditures...... 1.2 1.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.3 2.5 Durable goods........................ 1.2 -.1 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.3 7.2 3.2 5.4 Nondurable goods..................... .9 .6 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.0 3.1 2.3 1.4 Services............................. 1.5 1.9 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 Gross private domestic fixed investment 1.9 -7.6 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 6.8 10.1 6.0 6.8 Nonresidential....................... 5.3 -4.4 -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 6.4 9.8 9.5 7.3 Structures......................... 7.9 -1.5 -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 -1.7 1.5 7.3 4.9 Producers' durable equipment....... 3.7 -6.4 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.0 13.2 10.4 8.3 Residential.......................... -8.0 -18.2 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.8 -2.3 5.4 Exports of goods and services.......... 1.2 -7.1 -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 8.9 6.5 Imports of goods and services.......... 2.6 -1.3 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 9.2 12.0 8.0 6.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment.................. .7 1.3 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.2 -.1 .0 .9 Federal.............................. 4.2 3.2 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -3.6 -3.8 -3.6 -1.1 National defense................... 5.4 6.9 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 -1.8 Nondefense......................... 1.1 -5.9 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 1.0 -.7 -.2 .4 State and local...................... -2.0 -.3 .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.0 Addenda: Final sales of domestic product...... 1.1 -.9 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.4 2.7 Gross domestic purchases price index. 9.2 5.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and price components. This note describes the indexes used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to estimate the quantity and price changes presented in this release and in the related tables that appear in the Survey of Current Business. To compute the quantity indexes, changes in the quantities of individual goods and services are weighted by their prices. (Quantity changes for GDP are often referred to as changes in "real GDP.") For the price indexes, changes in the prices for individual goods and services are weighted by quantities produced. (In practice, the current- dollar value and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal government surveys, and the real values of these components are calculated by deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available.) Except for the most recent period, the annual and quarterly changes in real GDP and prices are "chain-type" measures that are both based on the "Fisher Ideal" formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. For example, the 1992-93 percent change in real GDP uses prices for 1992 and 1993 as weights, and the 1992-93 percent change in price uses quantities for 1992 and 1993 as weights. Because the quantity and price index numbers calculated in this way are symmetric, the product of the annual change in real GDP and the annual change in prices equals the annual change in current-dollar GDP. In the most recent period (currently, for quarters beginning with the third quarter of 1995), a variant of the formula is used because only one year's information is available for computing the index number weights. Accordingly, BEA uses a single year's weights (currently 1995) and, as a consequence, the product of the percentage changes in the price and quantity indexes does not equal the current-dollar change during this period. For this reason, another measure, known as the "implicit price deflator," is presented in this release. The implicit price deflator is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value multiplied by 100. The quantity and price indexes and implicit price deflators for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index numbers in table 4 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 2, 5A and 5B. Table 5A also presents the contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP. In addition, BEA prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." These estimates, which are presented in tables 2 and 3 of this release, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value of GDP, or of a GDP component, by the corresponding quantity index number. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased by 10 percent in 1993, then the "chained (1992) dollar" value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10). Note that percentage changes in the chained (1992) dollar estimates and the percentage changes calculated from the quantity indexes are identical, except for small differences due to rounding. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed GDP components shown in tables 1 and 3 do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. The "residual" line shown in these tables is the difference between GDP and the sum of the most detailed components shown in each table. For current periods, the residual is small. However, the residual tends to become larger as one moves further from the base period. In such cases, the table of contributions of the major components to the change in real GDP provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained- dollar estimates. References: "Preview of the Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: BEA Featured Measures of Output and Prices," July 1995 Survey of Current Business. "Alternative Measures of Changes in Real Output and Prices, Quarterly Estimates for 1959-92," March 1993 Survey of Current Business.