This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Nowcasting Distributional National Accounts for the United States: A Machine Learning Approach

Inequality statistics are usually calculated from high-quality, comprehensive survey or administrative microdata. Naturally, this data is typically available with a lag of at least 9 months from the reference period. In turbulent times, there is interest in knowing the distributional impacts of… Read more

Marina Gindelsky, Gary Cornwall
WP2024-6
Published
JEL Code(s)C53, D31, E01

Do Price Deflators for High-Tech Goods Overstate Quality Change?

This paper studies chained price indexes for goods in high-tech sectors, how they handle quality change and whether they will likely suffer from chain drift issues. We argue that chained indexes do not handle quality change properly; though the underlying bilateral indexes hold quality constant… Read more

Ana M. Aizcorbe, Daniel Ripperger-Suhler
WP2024-5
Published
JEL Code(s)C43, E31

Expanding the Frontier of Economic Statistics Using Big Data: A Case Study of Regional Employment

Big data offers potentially enormous benefits for improving economic measurement, but it also presents challenges (e.g., lack of representativeness and instability), implying that their value is not always clear. We propose a framework for quantifying the usefulness of these data sources for… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Eric English, Kyle K. Hood, Lowell Mason, Brian Quistorff
BEA-WP2024-4
Published
JEL Code(s)E01, E24

The Impact of Subsidies on Measuring Productivity and the Sources of Economic Growth

Taxes and subsidies drive a wedge between prices received and paid by producers and those paid by purchasers. Motivated by the large economic subsidies that were part of the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper introduces a new treatment for taxes and subsidies into the BEA-BLS… Read more

Jon D. Samuels, Corby Garner, Justin Harper
BEA-WP2024-3
Published
JEL Code(s)D24, E01

An Application of the Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition to the Price Deflation Problem

We apply the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method used in the labor literature to split changes in average prices into inflation and quality components. The inflation measure is a full imputation Törnqvist price index. Using this index to deflate nominal spending properly allocates changes in the… Read more

Ana M. Aizcorbe, Jan de Haan
WP2024-2
Published
JEL Code(s)C43, E31

Studies on the Value of Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has undertaken a series of studies that present methods for quantifying the value of simple data that can be differentiated from the complex data created by highly skilled workers that was studied in… Read more

Rachel Soloveichik
BEA-WP2024-1
Published
JEL Code(s)E01

The Increasing Pace of Weather-Related Cost Shocks: Should Net Domestic Product be Affected by Climate Disasters?

The monetary costs of weather and climate disasters in the U.S. grew rapidly from 1980 to 2022, rising more than five percent in real terms annually, and implying a faster depreciation of real assets. We argue that the expected depreciation from these events could be included in consumption of… Read more

Brian Sliker, Leonard Nakamura
WP2023-12
Published
JEL Code(s)C82, Q54

Marketing, Other Intangibles, and Output Growth in 61 United States Industries

Experts in the System of National Accounts (SNA) recently considered whether marketing could be included as a capital asset in the national accounts and later recommended that marketing should be an intangible in the 2025 SNA (IMF, 2022; IMF, 2023). This paper contributes to that discussion by… Read more

Leo Sveikauskas, Rachel Soloveichik, Corby Garner, Peter B. Meyer, James Bessen, Mathew Russell
WP2023-11
Published
JEL Code(s)M31, M37

A Direct Measure of Medical Innovation on Health Care Spending: A Condition-Specific Approach

While technological innovation is believed to be a key driver of spending growth, measuring this relationship is challenging. We address this challenge using a large database of cost-effectiveness studies, which we use to develop proxy measures of inno- vation for specific conditions. We connect… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Lasanthi Fernando, Eli Liebman
WP2023-10
Published
JEL Code(s)E01, I10, O3

Experimental Ultimate Host Economy Statistics for U.S. Direct Investment Abroad

Following international guidelines, BEA statistics on bilateral U.S. direct investment abroad are compiled and presented by immediate partner economy. While this approach is well suited for many purposes, it can lead to difficulty in interpreting direct investment statistics, especially in… Read more

Kirsten Brew, Jessica Hanson, Ricardo Limés, Ryan Smith, Larkin Terrie
WP2023-9
Published
JEL Code(s)F21, F23