This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Benchmark 2011 Integrated Estimates of the Japan-U.S. Price Level Index for Industry Outputs

This paper provides new benchmark estimates of industry-level price differentials between Japan and the U.S. for 2011 based on a bilateral price accounting model anchored to the Japan-US input-output tables. We apply the model to translate available demand-side data on purchaser’s price PPPs for… Read more

By Koji Nomura, Kozo Miyagawa, Jon D. Samuels
Published

Accounting for Special District Governments in the U.S. National Accounts

Special district governments are a type of local government that may embody characteristics of both governments and private businesses and are an important source of public services. Given the combined characteristics of special districts and their economic importance, a complete and consistent… Read more

By Melissa J. Braybrooks, Tina Highfill, Dylan Rassier
Published

Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the United States: A Proof of Concept

This paper presents proof-of-concept trade-in-value added (TiVA) statistics estimated from extended supply-use tables for the United States that account for firm heterogeneity. The tables used to estimate the TiVA statistics extend recently-introduced supply-use tables for the United States by… Read more

By James J. Fetzer, Thomas F. Howells III, Lin Z. Jones, Erich H. Strassner, Zhi Wang
Published

Accounting for Firm Heterogeneity within U.S. Industries: Extended Supply-Use Tables and Trade in Value Added using Enterprise and Establishment Level Data

This paper presents experimental trade-in-value added statistics estimated from extended supply-use tables (SUTs) for the United States for 2005 and 2012 that account for firm heterogeneity. The tables used to estimate the TiVA statistics extend supply-use tables for the United States by… Read more

By James J. Fetzer, Tina Highfill, Kassu W. Hossiso, Thomas F. Howells III, Erich H. Strassner, Jeffrey A. Young
Published

Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation

This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously… Read more

By Gary Cornwall, Jeffrey A. Mills, Beau A. Sauley, Huibin Weng
Published

Implications of Geometric Cohort Depreciation for Service-Life Distributions

This paper decomposes cohort-level Geometric depreciation into a weighted average of individual non-Geometric forms. The individual forms are general enough to represent actual individual depreciation patterns adequately, and the weights on individuals resemble Gamma service-life densities under… Read more
By Brian Sliker
Published

Improving the Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: a Posterior Simulation Approach

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the standard for establishing efficacy and tolerability of treatments. However, the statistical evaluation of treatment effects in RCTs has remained largely unchanged for several decades. A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing for RCTs that… Read more

By Jeffrey A. Mills, Gary Cornwall, Beau A. Sauley, Jeffrey R. Strawn
Published

Aggregate Effects and Measuring Regional Dynamics

Empirical models of regional adjustment often control for aggregate effects when estimating the impact of regional shocks. It is, however, difficult to filter out the effects of aggregate shocks— such as national recessions— because the incidence of these shocks varies across space and time. We… Read more
By Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, Kyle K. Hood
Published

Strategic movement of intellectual property within U.S. multinational enterprises

Strategic behavior by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) to shift profits between countries to reduce their worldwide tax burden has been well studied. Much of the existing research has focused on the use of debt payments and intrafirm intellectual property licensing agreements to explain why… Read more

By Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Derrick Jenniges, Sarah Stutzman, Yiran Xin
Published

Modeling and Forecasting Income Inequality in the United States

Recently, an idea has emerged that “the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer”. Using tax data from Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2017) (updated in the World Wealth& Income Database) and internal microdata from the Current Population Survey (1975-2015),this paper models… Read more

By Marina Gindelsky
Published