Economic research is a critical function at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and is conducted by staff in each of the program offices as well as the Office of the Chief Economist. BEA researchers produce a wide variety of articles, papers, and working papers, as well as regularly participate at professional meetings around the world. BEA researchers also produce a wide variety of methodological and statistical reports to support the continued improvement of the U.S. System of National Accounts.

Within BEA, a substantial number of researchers are actively involved in research on a full slate of issues of interest to the Bureau. BEA encourages these researchers to engage in independent research related to BEA statistics and their uses and supports publication of their work in professional journals and other academic venues.

BEA also supports research by academics on these issues through the Special Sworn Employee program, by making data available, by supporting National Science Foundation (NSF) proposals that deal with issues of interest to us, and by supporting a fellowship program with the American Statistical Association and National Science Foundation.

Latest Research

The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation

This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously… Read more

By Gary Cornwall

Strategic movement of intellectual property within U.S. multinational enterprises

Strategic behavior by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) to shift profits between countries to reduce their worldwide tax burden has been well studied. Much of the existing research has focused on the use of debt payments and intrafirm intellectual property licensing agreements to explain why… Read more

By Raymond J. Mataloni Jr., Derrick Jenniges, Sarah Stutzman, Yiran Xin

Modeling and Forecasting Income Inequality in the United States

Recently, an idea has emerged that “the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer”. Using tax data from Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2017) (updated in the World Wealth& Income Database) and internal microdata from the Current Population Survey (1975-2015),this paper models… Read more

By Marina Gindelsky