This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation

This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously… Read more

By Gary Cornwall
Published

Strategic movement of intellectual property within U.S. multinational enterprises

Strategic behavior by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) to shift profits between countries to reduce their worldwide tax burden has been well studied. Much of the existing research has focused on the use of debt payments and intrafirm intellectual property licensing agreements to explain why… Read more

By Raymond J. Mataloni Jr., Derrick Jenniges, Sarah Stutzman, Yiran Xin
Published

Modeling and Forecasting Income Inequality in the United States

Recently, an idea has emerged that “the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer”. Using tax data from Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2017) (updated in the World Wealth& Income Database) and internal microdata from the Current Population Survey (1975-2015),this paper models… Read more

By Marina Gindelsky
Published

Backcasting the BEA/BLS Integrated Industry-level Production Account and the Sources of U.S. Economic Growth between 1987 and 2016

By Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Thomas Howells, Mathew Russell, Jon D. Samuels
Published

Assessing the Automated Imputation of Missing and Erroneous Survey Data: A Simulation-Based Approach

Presented at the 2018 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM) Research and Policy Conference

By Larkin Terrie
Published

Defining and Measuring the Digital Economy

This paper, made possible by support from the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), describes the work of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to develop estimates towards the construction of a new digital economy satellite account. These… Read more

By Kevin Barefoot, Dave Curtis, William A. Jolliff, Jessica R. Nicholson, Robert Omohundro
Published

Valuing Owner-Occupied Housing: an empirical exercise using the American Community Survey (ACS) Housing files

In Aten (2017) the rental equivalence method was applied to the owner-occupied housing (OOH) stock in the United States to impute the flow of housing services for the period 2000-2015. The rents were based upon the American Community Survey and were broken into seven types of structure, vintage… Read more

By Bettina H. Aten
Published

Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts

Profit shifting to low-tax countries imposes challenges for the treatment of multinational enterprises in economic accounts. Using adjustments for profit shifting calculated in Guvenen et al. (2017) under an alternative measurement methodology, this paper empirically demonstrates how the effects… Read more

By Jennifer Bruner, Dylan Rassier, Kim J. Ruhl
Published

Is Productivity on Vacation? The Impact of the Digital Economy on the Value of Leisure

Many recent digital innovations (like video games) augment the value of leisure time, which is not captured by GDP. Therefore, the productivity impact of such innovations may be understated. I develop the theoretical foundations for measuring the value of leisure when it is produced using the… Read more

By Benjamin R. Bridgeman
Published