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James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 03-06
Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays)
Recorded message: 606-5303
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JANUARY 2003
Personal income increased $24.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
increased $24.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $8.7 billion, or 0.1 percent. In December, personal
income increased $31.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $29.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE
increased $73.1 billion, or 1.0 percent, based on revised estimates.
2002 2003
Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3
Chained (1996) dollars 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars -0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 -0.1
Chained (1996) dollars -0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9 -0.3
The January change in personal income was affected by several special factors. The January
change was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to several federal transfer payment programs, by
changes in the earned income credit program, and by pay raises for federal civilian and military
personnel. The January change was reduced by annual adjustments to personal contributions for
social insurance and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December
personal income. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $17.2 billion, or
0.2 percent, in January, after increasing $25.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in December. These
special factors are discussed more fully below.
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $0.8 billion in January, in contrast to an
increase of $9.9 billion in December. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $0.1 billion,
compared with an increase of $2.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $0.2 billion, compared
with an increase of $0.5 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls decreased $7.2 billion, in contrast
to an increase of $1.9 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $6.2 billion, compared with an
increase of $5.7 billion.
Government wage and salary disbursements increased $8.2 billion in January, compared with
an increase of $1.9 billion in December. Pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added
$5.4 billion to government payrolls in January.
Other personal income
Proprietors' income increased $8.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $4.3 billion
in December. Farm proprietors' income increased $1.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.6
billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $6.4 billion, compared with an increase of $5.8
billion.
Transfer payments increased $6.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $11.8 billion
in December. The January change in transfer payments reflected 1.4-percent cost-of-living
adjustments to social security benefits and to several other federal transfer payment programs and
changes in the earned income credit program; together, these changes added $11.0 billion to the
January increase. The January change in transfer payments was reduced by lump-sum social
security benefits payments, which had added $6.0 billion to December transfer payments; these
benefit payments resulted from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits for recent
retirees.
Personal interest income decreased $1.6 billion in January, compared with a decrease of $0.3
billion in December. Personal dividend income increased $2.6 billion, compared with an increase of
$2.2 billion. Rental income of persons increased $0.8 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $1.8
billion.
Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
increased $3.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $0.9 billion in December. The
January increase reflected an increase in the social security taxable wage base for employees and the
self-employed (from $84,900 to $87,000) and an increase in the monthly premium paid by
participants in the supplementary medical insurance program (Medicare B), which together added
$3.5 billion to January personal contributions.
Personal taxes and disposable personal income
Personal tax and nontax payments was unchanged in January; personal tax and nontax
payments increased $2.0 billion in December. Indexation provisions of current tax law reduced
federal income tax payments by $5.2 billion in January.
Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments --
increased $24.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, in January, compared with an increase of $29.6 billion, or 0.4
percent, in December.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of
the world (net) -- decreased $9.1 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $70.9 billion in
December. PCE decreased $8.7 billion, in contrast to an increase of $73.1 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $342.0 billion in January, compared with
$308.8 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.3
percent in January, compared with 3.9 percent in December.
Real DPI and real PCE
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in January,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in December.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.3 percent in January, in
contrast to an increase of 0.9 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods decreased 5.4
percent, in contrast to an increase of 7.2 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted
for most of the January decrease and most of the December increase. Purchases of nondurable
goods increased 1.0 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in December.
Purchases of services increased 0.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent.
Revisions
Estimates have been revised for October through December. Changes in personal income,
current-dollar and chained (1996) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1996) dollar PCE for
November and December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.
Revisions for October were small.
Change from preceding month
November December
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars........... 27.9 27.0 0.3 0.3 35.3 31.6 0.4 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars........... 28.3 27.0 0.4 0.3 32.6 29.6 0.4 0.4
Chained (1996) dollars.... 20.1 18.9 0.3 0.3 27.1 21.8 0.4 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars........... 29.4 32.9 0.4 0.4 66.3 73.1 0.9 1.0
Chained (1996) dollars.... 21.5 24.5 0.3 0.4 57.4 61.0 0.9 0.9
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
606-5303 Personal income and outlays
606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for February will be released on
March 28, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EST.
Table 1.--Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)
[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 8,971.7 8,965.0 8,992.9 9,022.2 9,049.3 9,076.3 9,107.9 9,132.0
Wage and salary disbursements..... 5,034.0 5,016.7 5,045.7 5,068.5 5,081.3 5,097.0 5,108.8 5,116.2
Private industries.............. 4,183.1 4,163.1 4,188.0 4,208.6 4,218.0 4,231.4 4,241.3 4,240.5
Goods-producing industries.... 1,128.2 1,121.8 1,128.1 1,128.2 1,128.3 1,126.7 1,129.0 1,129.1
Manufacturing............... 771.2 765.6 768.4 766.9 767.1 765.2 765.7 765.9
Distributive industries....... 1,124.7 1,115.6 1,120.1 1,125.2 1,127.8 1,130.6 1,132.5 1,125.3
Service industries............ 1,930.2 1,925.7 1,939.7 1,955.1 1,962.0 1,974.1 1,979.8 1,986.0
Government...................... 851.0 853.6 857.7 860.0 863.3 865.6 867.5 875.7
Other labor income................ 608.5 613.0 617.5 622.1 625.9 630.1 634.5 638.3
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 745.1 755.0 757.4 763.8 769.9 770.3 774.6 782.7
Farm............................ 3.3 7.7 10.7 13.8 13.0 11.8 10.2 12.0
Nonfarm......................... 741.7 747.4 746.7 750.0 756.9 758.5 764.3 770.7
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 158.7 152.4 144.1 135.9 134.1 132.5 130.7 131.5
Personal dividend income.......... 432.7 435.0 437.3 439.4 441.6 443.8 446.0 448.6
Personal interest income.......... 1,088.9 1,084.8 1,080.7 1,076.7 1,076.4 1,076.1 1,075.8 1,074.2
Transfer payments to persons...... 1,289.9 1,293.2 1,297.3 1,304.6 1,309.8 1,317.6 1,329.4 1,335.6
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 697.4 699.2 701.9 704.6 704.5 710.3 717.6 717.9
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. 70.8 68.1 66.9 67.8 66.0 63.3 63.2 60.8
Other........................... 521.7 525.9 528.5 532.3 539.3 544.0 548.6 556.8
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 386.1 385.2 387.2 388.8 389.8 391.0 391.9 395.1
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 1,122.0 1,108.8 1,107.1 1,106.2 1,105.7 1,105.7 1,107.7 1,107.7
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 7,849.7 7,856.2 7,885.8 7,916.0 7,943.6 7,970.6 8,000.2 8,024.3
Less: Personal outlays.............. 7,501.8 7,579.9 7,601.6 7,567.5 7,589.8 7,620.5 7,691.4 7,682.3
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,276.7 7,355.7 7,379.3 7,347.2 7,371.5 7,404.4 7,477.5 7,468.8
Durable goods................... 857.4 901.6 919.0 872.8 847.8 856.8 914.8 862.5
Nondurable goods................ 2,111.7 2,117.8 2,117.3 2,115.6 2,138.1 2,150.8 2,160.0 2,188.1
Services........................ 4,307.6 4,336.3 4,343.0 4,358.8 4,385.6 4,396.7 4,402.7 4,418.2
Interest paid by persons.......... 193.2 191.3 189.3 187.4 185.2 183.0 180.8 180.3
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... 31.9 32.9 32.9 32.9 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1
Equals: Personal saving............. 347.9 276.3 284.2 348.4 353.8 350.0 308.8 342.0
Addenda:
Disposable personal income:
Total, billions of chained
(1996) dollars\1\.............. 7,073.9 7,070.1 7,080.7 7,093.7 7,109.4 7,128.3 7,150.1 7,161.3
Per capita:
Current dollars............... 27,324 27,324 27,403 27,484 27,557 27,630 27,713 27,779
Chained (1996) dollars........ 24,623 24,590 24,606 24,629 24,663 24,710 24,768 24,791
Population (thousands)\2\....... 287,284 287,519 287,768 288,024 288,263 288,480 288,682 288,866
Personal saving as a percentage
of disposable personal income.... 4.4 3.5 3.6 4.4 4.5 4.4 3.9 4.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator for
personal consumption expenditures.
2. Population is the total population of the United States, including the Armed
Forces overseas and the institutionalized population. The monthly estimate
is the average of estimates for the first of the month and the first of the
following month; the annual estimate is the average of the monthly estimates.
Table 2.--Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)
[Billions of dollars; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002/r/ III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02/r/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 8,685.3 8,947.2 8,706.2 8,700.9 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,993.3 9,077.8
Wage and salary disbursements..... 4,950.6 5,023.6 4,953.7 4,931.4 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,043.6 5,095.7
Private industries.............. 4,139.8 4,170.8 4,136.6 4,106.2 4,117.4 4,148.9 4,186.5 4,230.2
Goods-producing industries.... 1,142.4 1,123.1 1,140.0 1,123.3 1,116.9 1,121.3 1,126.0 1,128.0
Manufacturing............... 789.4 764.4 783.4 769.9 759.4 765.3 767.0 766.0
Distributive industries....... 1,109.2 1,119.0 1,110.8 1,098.6 1,110.1 1,115.3 1,120.3 1,130.3
Service industries............ 1,888.2 1,928.7 1,885.8 1,884.3 1,890.4 1,912.4 1,940.2 1,972.0
Government...................... 810.8 852.8 817.1 825.2 840.4 848.4 857.1 865.5
Other labor income................ 570.4 610.6 572.4 576.3 590.8 604.1 617.5 630.2
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 727.9 756.5 732.4 731.3 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6
Farm............................ 19.0 12.9 19.3 19.2 21.7 7.5 10.7 11.7
Nonfarm......................... 708.8 743.6 713.1 712.1 726.7 740.0 748.0 759.9
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 137.9 142.8 140.8 139.3 141.3 153.5 144.1 132.4
Personal dividend income.......... 409.2 433.8 411.0 417.3 423.7 430.3 437.3 443.8
Personal interest income.......... 1,091.3 1,077.2 1,086.4 1,072.9 1,069.9 1,082.3 1,080.7 1,076.1
Transfer payments to persons...... 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,182.5 1,205.0 1,252.0 1,282.6 1,298.4 1,318.9
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 664.3 699.8 670.1 674.0 690.2 696.3 701.9 710.8
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. 31.9 62.9 33.1 41.0 52.3 67.3 67.6 64.2
Other........................... 474.2 525.3 479.3 490.0 509.5 519.0 528.9 543.9
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 372.3 385.5 373.1 372.7 380.5 383.6 387.0 390.9
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 1,292.1 1,118.1 1,181.9 1,309.7 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,107.3 1,106.4
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 7,393.2 7,829.1 7,524.2 7,391.2 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,886.0 7,971.5
Less: Personal outlays.............. 7,223.5 7,522.8 7,222.0 7,329.6 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,633.9
Personal consumption expenditures. 6,987.0 7,301.9 6,983.7 7,099.9 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,417.8
Durable goods................... 835.9 871.7 824.0 882.6 859.0 856.9 897.8 873.2
Nondurable goods................ 2,041.3 2,115.0 2,044.3 2,044.4 2,085.1 2,108.2 2,116.9 2,149.6
Services........................ 4,109.9 4,315.2 4,115.4 4,172.9 4,230.1 4,289.5 4,346.0 4,395.0
Interest paid by persons.......... 205.4 188.6 206.5 199.1 190.6 191.3 189.3 183.0
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... 31.1 32.4 31.8 30.6 31.5 31.9 32.9 33.1
Equals: Personal saving............. 169.7 306.3 302.2 61.5 270.4 314.3 303.0 337.6
Addenda:
Disposable personal income:
Total, billions of chained
(1996) dollars\1\.............. 6,748.0 7,049.8 6,864.0 6,729.1 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,081.6 7,129.3
Per capita:
Current dollars............... 25,957 27,236 26,387 25,853 26,759 27,144 27,404 27,633
Chained (1996) dollars........ 23,692 24,525 24,071 23,537 24,296 24,479 24,609 24,714
Population (thousands)\2\....... 284,822 287,456 285,154 285,898 286,507 287,072 287,770 288,475
Personal saving as a percentage
of disposable personal income.... 2.3 3.9 4.0 .8 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator for
personal consumption expenditures.
2. Population is the total population of the United States, including the Armed
Forces overseas and the institutionalized population. The quarterly and
annual estimates are averages of monthly population estimates.
Table 3.--Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Months)
[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 66.8 -6.7 27.9 29.3 27.1 27.0 31.6 24.1
Wage and salary disbursements..... 45.0 -17.3 29.0 22.8 12.8 15.7 11.8 7.4
Private industries.............. 42.4 -20.0 24.9 20.6 9.4 13.4 9.9 -.8
Goods-producing industries.... 8.9 -6.4 6.3 .1 .1 -1.6 2.3 .1
Manufacturing............... 6.9 -5.6 2.8 -1.5 .2 -1.9 .5 .2
Distributive industries....... 11.5 -9.1 4.5 5.1 2.6 2.8 1.9 -7.2
Service industries............ 22.0 -4.5 14.0 15.4 6.9 12.1 5.7 6.2
Government...................... 2.7 2.6 4.1 2.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 8.2
Other labor income................ 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.8 4.2 4.4 3.8
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... -.9 9.9 2.4 6.4 6.1 .4 4.3 8.1
Farm............................ -1.8 4.4 3.0 3.1 -.8 -1.2 -1.6 1.8
Nonfarm......................... .8 5.7 -.7 3.3 6.9 1.6 5.8 6.4
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 5.2 -6.3 -8.3 -8.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 .8
Personal dividend income.......... 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.6
Personal interest income.......... 6.6 -4.1 -4.1 -4.0 -.3 -.3 -.3 -1.6
Transfer payments to persons...... 7.0 3.3 4.1 7.3 5.2 7.8 11.8 6.2
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 1.1 1.8 2.7 2.7 -.1 5.8 7.3 .3
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. 3.1 -2.7 -1.2 .9 -1.8 -2.7 -.1 -2.4
Other............................ 2.8 4.2 2.6 3.8 7.0 4.7 4.6 8.2
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 3.1 -.9 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.2 .9 3.2
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 2.4 -13.2 -1.7 -.9 -.5 .0 2.0 .0
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 64.4 6.5 29.6 30.2 27.6 27.0 29.6 24.1
Less: Personal outlays.............. 33.9 78.1 21.7 -34.1 22.3 30.7 70.9 -9.1
Personal consumption expenditures. 32.1 79.0 23.6 -32.1 24.3 32.9 73.1 -8.7
Durable goods................... 12.2 44.2 17.4 -46.2 -25.0 9.0 58.0 -52.3
Nondurable goods................ 9.8 6.1 -.5 -1.7 22.5 12.7 9.2 28.1
Services........................ 10.2 28.7 6.7 15.8 26.8 11.1 6.0 15.5
Interest paid by persons.......... 1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -.5
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... .0 1.0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0
Equals: Personal saving............. 30.4 -71.6 7.9 64.2 5.4 -3.8 -41.2 33.2
Addendum:
Disposable personal income:
Chained (1996) dollars\1\........ 49.5 -3.8 10.6 13.0 15.7 18.9 21.8 11.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator
for personal consumption expenditures.
Table 4.--Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)
[Billions of dollars; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002/r/ III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02/r/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 278.7 261.9 30.0 -5.3 102.5 110.6 79.3 84.5
Wage and salary disbursements..... 114.3 73.0 -3.1 -22.3 26.4 39.5 46.3 52.1
Private industries.............. 72.4 31.0 -14.4 -30.4 11.2 31.5 37.6 43.7
Goods-producing industries.... -21.3 -19.3 -10.0 -16.7 -6.4 4.4 4.7 2.0
Manufacturing............... -40.0 -25.0 -13.7 -13.5 -10.5 5.9 1.7 -1.0
Distributive industries....... 14.4 9.8 -1.5 -12.2 11.5 5.2 5.0 10.0
Service industries............ 79.3 40.5 -3.0 -1.5 6.1 22.0 27.8 31.8
Government...................... 41.9 42.0 11.3 8.1 15.2 8.0 8.7 8.4
Other labor income................ 26.2 40.2 4.2 3.9 14.5 13.3 13.4 12.7
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 13.1 28.6 5.8 -1.1 17.1 -.9 11.2 12.9
Farm............................ -3.6 -6.1 .9 -.1 2.5 -14.2 3.2 1.0
Nonfarm......................... 16.6 34.8 4.9 -1.0 14.6 13.3 8.0 11.9
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... -8.7 4.9 6.5 -1.5 2.0 12.2 -9.4 -11.7
Personal dividend income.......... 33.5 24.6 5.0 6.3 6.4 6.6 7.0 6.5
Personal interest income.......... 14.3 -14.1 -10.8 -13.5 -3.0 12.4 -1.6 -4.6
Transfer payments to persons...... 100.1 117.6 23.4 22.5 47.0 30.6 15.8 20.5
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 47.1 35.5 9.9 3.9 16.2 6.1 5.6 8.9
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. 11.4 31.0 3.9 7.9 11.3 15.0 .3 -3.4
Other............................ 41.7 51.1 9.6 10.7 19.5 9.5 9.9 15.0
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 13.9 13.2 .9 -.4 7.8 3.1 3.4 3.9
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 5.7 -174.0 -154.2 127.8 -172.9 -15.0 -14.5 -.9
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 273.0 435.9 184.2 -133.0 275.5 125.5 93.8 85.5
Less: Personal outlays.............. 304.9 299.3 23.5 107.6 66.7 81.6 105.1 50.9
Personal consumption expenditures. 303.3 314.9 23.9 116.2 74.3 80.5 106.0 57.1
Durable goods................... 32.0 35.8 3.7 58.6 -23.6 -2.1 40.9 -24.6
Nondurable goods................ 68.4 73.7 -.5 .1 40.7 23.1 8.7 32.7
Services........................ 203.0 205.3 20.7 57.5 57.2 59.4 56.5 49.0
Interest paid by persons.......... .0 -16.8 -1.2 -7.4 -8.5 .7 -2.0 -6.3
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... 1.6 1.3 .9 -1.2 .9 .4 1.0 .2
Equals: Personal saving............. -31.8 136.6 160.6 -240.7 208.9 43.9 -11.3 34.6
Addendum:
Disposable personal income:
Chained (1996) dollars\1\........ 117.7 301.8 169.2 -134.9 231.9 66.2 54.4 47.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator
for personal consumption expenditures.
Table 5.--Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months)
[Percent; months seasonally adjusted at monthly rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... .7 -.1 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3
Wage and salary disbursements..... .9 -.3 .6 .5 .3 .3 .2 .1
Other labor income................ .8 .7 .7 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... -.1 1.3 .3 .8 .8 .1 .6 1.0
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 3.4 -4.0 -5.4 -5.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 .6
Personal dividend income.......... .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .6
Personal interest income.......... .6 -.4 -.4 -.4 .0 .0 .0 -.1
Transfer payments to persons...... .5 .3 .3 .6 .4 .6 .9 .5
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. .8 -.2 .5 .4 .3 .3 .2 .8
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... .2 -1.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .2 .0
Equals: Disposable personal income.. .8 .1 .4 .4 .3 .3 .4 .3
Addenda:
Personal consumption expenditures. .4 1.1 .3 -.4 .3 .4 1.0 -.1
Durable goods................... 1.4 5.2 1.9 -5.0 -2.9 1.1 6.8 -5.7
Nondurable goods................ .5 .3 .0 -.1 1.1 .6 .4 1.3
Services........................ .2 .7 .2 .4 .6 .3 .1 .4
Disposable personal income, based
on chained (1996) dollars........ .7 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Table 6.--Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002/r/ III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02/r/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 3.3 3.0 1.4 -.2 4.8 5.1 3.6 3.8
Wage and salary disbursements..... 2.4 1.5 -.3 -1.8 2.2 3.2 3.8 4.2
Other labor income................ 4.8 7.1 3.0 2.8 10.4 9.3 9.2 8.5
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 1.8 3.9 3.3 -.6 9.7 -.5 6.2 6.9
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... -6.0 3.6 20.9 -4.3 5.9 39.3 -22.3 -28.8
Personal dividend income.......... 8.9 6.0 5.0 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.1
Personal interest income.......... 1.3 -1.3 -3.9 -4.9 -1.1 4.7 -.6 -1.7
Transfer payments to persons...... 9.4 10.0 8.3 7.8 16.5 10.1 5.0 6.5
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 3.9 3.6 1.0 -.4 8.6 3.3 3.7 4.0
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... .4 -13.5 -38.8 50.8 -43.3 -5.1 -5.1 -.4
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 3.8 5.9 10.4 -6.9 15.8 6.7 4.9 4.4
Addenda:
Personal consumption expenditures. 4.5 4.5 1.4 6.8 4.3 4.6 6.0 3.1
Durable goods................... 4.0 4.3 1.8 31.6 -10.3 -.9 20.5 -10.5
Nondurable goods................ 3.5 3.6 -.1 .0 8.2 4.5 1.7 6.3
Services........................ 5.2 5.0 2.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.6
Disposable personal income, based
on chained (1996) dollars........ 1.8 4.5 10.5 -7.6 14.5 3.9 3.1 2.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 7.--Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)
[Months seasonally adjusted at annual rates except as noted]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 6,557.5 6,619.7 6,625.9 6,584.0 6,597.4 6,621.9 6,682.9 6,665.6
Durable goods..................... 983.2 1,036.4 1,057.3 1,003.5 976.7 990.7 1,061.7 1,004.4
Nondurable goods.................. 1,926.9 1,931.0 1,926.2 1,920.2 1,938.4 1,950.5 1,960.1 1,979.5
Services.......................... 3,672.9 3,688.5 3,683.4 3,689.0 3,704.2 3,705.8 3,702.8 3,709.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change from preceding period in
billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 20.9 62.2 6.2 -41.9 13.4 24.5 61.0 -17.3
Durable goods..................... 16.9 53.2 20.9 -53.8 -26.8 14.0 71.0 -57.3
Nondurable goods.................. 7.2 4.1 -4.8 -6.0 18.2 12.1 9.6 19.4
Services.......................... .5 15.6 -5.1 5.6 15.2 1.6 -3.0 7.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change from preceding period in
chained (1996) dollars at monthly rates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... .3 .9 .1 -.6 .2 .4 .9 -.3
Durable goods..................... 1.7 5.4 2.0 -5.1 -2.7 1.4 7.2 -5.4
Nondurable goods.................. .4 .2 -.2 -.3 .9 .6 .5 1.0
Services.......................... .0 .4 -.1 .2 .4 .0 -.1 .2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Table 8.--Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002/r/ III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02/r/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 6,377.2 6,575.1 6,370.9 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,634.1
Durable goods..................... 931.9 999.7 922.6 992.0 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,009.7
Nondurable goods.................. 1,869.8 1,929.4 1,868.3 1,885.0 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,949.7
Services.......................... 3,594.9 3,674.9 3,597.5 3,616.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,704.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change from preceding period in
billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 153.3 197.9 22.9 93.1 49.8 28.6 67.5 24.2
Durable goods..................... 53.0 67.8 10.2 69.4 -16.1 4.8 51.7 -22.7
Nondurable goods.................. 36.0 59.6 6.0 16.7 36.4 -.5 4.9 23.9
Services.......................... 70.4 80.0 8.2 19.1 25.6 24.0 20.8 17.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change from preceding period in
chained (1996) dollars at annual rates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 3.1 1.5 6.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 1.5
Durable goods..................... 6.0 7.3 4.6 33.6 -6.3 2.0 22.8 -8.5
Nondurable goods.................. 2.0 3.2 1.3 3.6 7.9 -.1 1.0 5.1
Services.......................... 2.0 2.2 .9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
r Revised.
Table 9.--Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chain-type price indexes (1996=100),
seasonally adjusted
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 110.97 111.12 111.37 111.59 111.74 111.82 111.89 112.05
Durable goods..................... 87.18 86.97 86.89 86.95 86.78 86.46 86.14 85.84
Nondurable goods.................. 109.59 109.67 109.92 110.17 110.30 110.27 110.19 110.53
Services.......................... 117.28 117.57 117.91 118.16 118.40 118.65 118.90 119.10
Addendum:
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 110.54 110.66 110.94 111.12 111.18 111.27 111.34 111.32
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change from preceding period
in price indexes at monthly rates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... .1 .1 .2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1
Durable goods..................... -.3 -.2 -.1 .1 -.2 -.4 -.4 -.3
Nondurable goods.................. .1 .1 .2 .2 .1 .0 -.1 .3
Services.......................... .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2
Addendum:
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. .1 .1 .2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Table 10.--Percent Change From Month One Year Ago in Chained (1996) Dollars for Selected Series
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disposable personal income.......... 5.8 4.0 2.4 3.1 6.0 6.1 5.7 3.2
Personal consumption expenditures... 3.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 1.9 2.7 3.3 2.7
Durable goods..................... 6.3 11.9 13.4 10.4 -4.9 .4 10.3 4.2
Nondurable goods.................. 3.6 3.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 2.9 3.1
Services.......................... 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Table 11.--Percent Change From Month One Year Ago in Chain-Type Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 02 Jul 02 Aug 02 Sep 02 Oct 02/r/ Nov 02/r/ Dec 02/r/ Jan 03/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.9
Durable goods..................... -2.8 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 -3.1
Nondurable goods.................. -.4 .4 .9 .1 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.4
Services.......................... 2.6 2.5 2.6 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8
Addendum:
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
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