News Release
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 1998 (advance)
| Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 | BEA 99-02 |
| Recorded message: 606-5306 |
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 1998 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998, according to advance estimates released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent. Real GDP increased $103.5 billion in the fourth quarter, following an increase of $67.9 billion in the third.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter estimates are based on preliminary and incomplete source data. Information on the assumptions used for missing source data is available on request. Revised estimates based on more comprehensive data will be issued next month.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for durable goods, exports of goods, and producers' durable equipment (PDE). The contributions of these components were partially offset by the effects of an increase in imports of goods.
New Table.--An appendix table has been added that shows real GDP and related aggregates and price indexes. These data have previously been made available later on the day of the GDP release. Included in this table are estimates of the impact on GDP of changes in motor vehicle output and in final sales of computers and the impact on gross domestic purchases prices of food and energy prices.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in PDE and accelerations in exports of goods and in PCE for durable goods. The acceleration in GDP was moderated primarily by an acceleration in imports of goods, a deceleration in PCE for services, and a downturn in inventory investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent in the third. Durable goods purchases increased 21.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Nondurable goods increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Services expenditures increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 16.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.7 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 5.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent. Producers' durable equipment increased 21.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.1 percent, compared with an increase of 9.9 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 18.8 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 16.0 percent, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the third. National defense increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent. Nondefense increased 21.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 11.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent.
The real change in business inventories subtracted 0.31 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.89 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Businesses increased inventories $48.9 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $55.7 billion in the third quarter and $38.2 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in business inventories -- increased 6.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.2 percent in the third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $87.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $78.9 billion in the third. Personal tax and nontax payments increased $15.9 billion, compared with an increase of $15.5 billion.
Disposable personal income increased $71.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $63.5 billion in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.
Personal outlays increased $85.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $76.5 billion in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was a negative $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $12.6 billion in the third. The saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 0.2 percent in the third quarter to zero percent in the fourth.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.5 percent, or $134.9 billion, in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $97.3 billion.
1998 GDP
Real GDP increased 3.9 percent in 1998 (that is, from the 1997 annual level to the 1998 annual level), the same increase as in 1997.
The increase in real GDP in 1998 was more than accounted for by increases in personal consumption expenditures and in nonresidential fixed investment. The increase in GDP was moderated by an increase in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent in 1998; the index increased 1.6 percent in 1997.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.9 percent, or $398.0 billion, in 1998. Current-dollar GDP increased 5.9 percent, or $449.3 billion, in 1997.
During 1998 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998), real GDP increased 4.1 percent. Real GDP increased 3.8 percent during 1997. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.5 percent during 1998, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent during 1997.
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Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers:
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Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C. 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $88.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $39.00 domestic, $48.75 foreign; single issue $14.00 domestic, $17.50 foreign. * * *
Next release -- February 26, 1999, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 1998 (Preliminary)
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on preliminary and incomplete source data and BEA assumptions about missing source data, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "preliminary" and "final" estimates, are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar year and of the 2 preceding years. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point. Thus, based on past history, the fourth- quarter change in real GDP now estimated at 5.6 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below 5.0 percent or above 6.5 percent in the next two releases.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average without Range
compared regard to sign Two-thirds Nine-tenths
of revisions of revisions
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.6 -0.5 to 0.8 -1.1 to 1.4
Advance to final................ .7 - .6 to 1.0 -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final........... .3 - .3 to .4 - .6 to .7
Advance to latest............... 1.3 - .8 to 2.1 -1.6 to 3.3
Preliminary to latest.......... 1.2 -1.1 to 2.1 -1.7 to 2.9
Final to latest..................1.2 - .9 to 2.0 -1.9 to 2.8
Real GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final................ .6 - .6 to .9 -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final........... .3 - .4 to .4 - .5 to .7
Advance to latest............... 1.4 -1.3 to 1.7 -1.9 to 3.0
Preliminary to latest.......... 1.4 -1.2 to 1.6 -2.3 to 3.0
Final to latest..................1.4 -1.5 to 1.9 -2.2 to 3.0
NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 1997 for the first three comparisons in each
group and on the period from 1978 through 1995 for the last three comparisons in each group.
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 3.4 3.9 3.9 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.7 5.6
Personal consumption expenditures... 3.2 3.4 4.8 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 3.7 4.7 1.8 2.9 4.3 1.6 6.2 2.8 6.1 6.1 4.1 4.4
Durable goods..................... 6.3 6.8 10.1 -1.0 5.9 8.3 4.8 5.8 12.7 -1.9 7.2 12.3 -1.5 16.8 3.1 15.8 11.2 2.4 21.4
Nondurable goods.................. 2.4 2.4 3.8 2.3 1.6 .7 2.0 2.2 4.8 1.2 2.9 3.6 -.2 5.1 -.4 7.4 5.3 2.1 3.2
Services.......................... 3.0 3.2 4.3 2.3 3.8 2.4 1.9 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.1 3.2 4.7 4.3 3.5 5.4 5.4 1.7
Gross private domestic investment... 8.8 11.3 10.4 4.3 -11.9 .6 9.3 9.8 18.0 18.0 -.7 15.3 20.3 1.5 8.9 28.3 -4.5 7.9 12.0
Fixed investment.................. 8.8 8.3 11.5 8.2 .3 3.4 7.3 12.0 13.3 9.3 5.1 5.9 11.8 12.0 3.6 20.4 13.4 2.2 14.8
Nonresidential.................. 9.3 10.7 11.9 16.0 6.9 .9 6.1 13.1 11.0 14.2 8.8 7.0 14.0 17.0 1.8 22.2 12.8 -.7 16.7
Structures.................... 5.0 7.1 -.1 10.7 5.1 -.4 -3.8 6.4 7.4 8.9 24.5 3.9 -6.2 12.4 .9 -4.9 -2.3 .2 5.5
Producers' durable equipment.. 10.9 12.1 16.7 18.1 7.6 1.4 10.1 15.7 12.3 16.2 3.2 8.3 22.8 18.8 2.2 34.3 18.8 -1.0 21.0
Residential..................... 7.4 2.5 10.4 -8.8 -15.0 10.1 10.6 9.3 19.5 -1.7 -3.9 3.1 6.1 -.4 8.2 15.6 15.0 9.9 10.1
Change in business inventories
(CBI)............................ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 8.5 12.8 1.5 9.2 5.4 17.8 10.2 3.7 5.8 2.1 32.0 8.3 15.5 10.6 4.4 -2.8 -7.7 -2.8 18.8
Goods........................... 9.7 15.4 2.1 9.2 6.4 16.1 11.8 6.9 4.0 7.6 28.9 15.2 17.1 12.5 7.9 -3.4 -11.3 .6 23.1
Services........................ 5.6 6.6 -.2 9.1 2.9 21.7 6.4 -4.0 10.3 -9.9 39.8 -6.7 11.8 5.9 -4.0 -1.2 1.7 -10.4 8.7
Imports........................... 9.2 13.9 10.8 9.8 7.2 2.0 3.5 13.1 13.5 13.6 7.0 18.6 17.9 13.5 6.3 15.7 9.3 2.3 16.0
Goods........................... 10.0 14.7 11.8 7.9 9.3 1.8 3.1 13.8 15.4 14.3 8.7 18.8 19.4 13.1 6.4 17.0 11.4 2.9 18.4
Services........................ 5.4 9.9 5.9 20.5 -3.3 3.1 5.5 9.2 4.3 9.9 -1.1 17.8 10.6 15.8 5.8 9.3 -.6 -.6 4.2
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 1.1 1.3 1.0 .1 1.2 -.8 -4.1 3.2 7.1 -1.6 .0 2.1 2.1 1.4 .1 -1.9 3.7 1.5 4.1
Federal........................... -1.1 -1.6 -1.0 -2.6 -2.0 -2.6 -14.7 8.0 8.1 -4.7 -6.3 -2.7 3.6 -1.2 -2.1 -8.8 7.3 -1.4 7.9
National defense................ -1.3 -3.2 -2.7 -1.6 .1 -5.4 -12.5 7.2 8.1 -6.3 -8.3 -9.9 9.1 -1.8 -2.0 -18.5 9.9 4.3 1.2
Nondefense...................... -.5 1.7 2.5 -4.6 -6.2 3.3 -19.2 9.9 8.1 -1.3 -2.0 13.3 -6.4 -.1 -2.3 13.1 2.6 -11.5 21.8
State and local................... 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.8 3.2 .4 2.8 .5 6.5 .3 3.8 4.9 1.3 2.9 1.3 2.1 1.8 3.1 2.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI)................... 3.4 3.5 4.0 2.2 2.3 3.7 2.5 3.6 5.4 .9 5.1 2.9 2.7 5.8 2.1 4.3 4.6 2.8 6.0
Gross domestic purchases.......... 3.6 4.2 5.0 1.9 .7 1.7 2.0 4.5 7.0 3.4 1.8 5.5 4.4 4.6 3.2 7.8 3.9 4.2 5.5
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 3.6 3.7 5.1 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.8 4.7 6.3 2.2 2.7 4.1 3.1 6.2 2.4 6.6 6.7 3.3 5.9
Gross national product (GNP)...... 3.4 3.7 ..... 2.7 .6 2.6 3.5 3.3 5.7 1.6 4.5 3.6 4.1 3.8 2.4 5.8 1.7 3.3 .....
Disposable personal income........ 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.6 -.6 2.7 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.4 1.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.9 4.0 2.6 3.2 3.6
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 5.4 5.9 4.9 4.3 2.3 5.3 4.9 5.7 7.3 3.9 6.1 7.2 5.6 5.4 4.2 6.4 2.7 4.7 6.5
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI)................. 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.2 5.8 4.6 6.0 6.7 2.8 7.0 5.8 4.4 7.0 3.3 5.3 5.5 3.8 6.9
Gross domestic purchases........ 5.4 5.8 5.6 4.2 3.0 3.3 3.9 6.6 8.3 5.1 4.1 7.8 5.2 5.8 4.3 7.6 4.4 4.9 6.5
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 5.4 5.4 5.7 4.6 4.9 3.8 3.7 7.0 7.6 3.9 5.0 6.5 4.0 7.3 3.5 6.5 7.2 4.1 6.8
GNP............................. 5.3 5.6 ..... 5.3 2.5 4.5 5.5 5.6 7.0 3.5 6.4 6.5 5.6 5.0 3.6 6.7 2.5 4.3 .....
Disposable personal income...... 4.9 4.7 4.0 4.3 1.7 4.7 5.6 5.2 4.6 6.0 3.8 5.9 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.5 4.3 4.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... 3.4 3.9 3.9 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.7 5.6
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.17 2.31 3.30 1.25 2.26 1.77 1.57 2.50 3.21 1.26 1.97 2.91 1.08 4.19 1.88 4.09 4.09 2.78 3.03
Durable goods................... .52 .56 .80 -.09 .47 .66 .39 .48 1.03 -.16 .58 .98 -.13 1.30 .26 1.23 .91 .20 1.68
Nondurable goods................ .48 .49 .76 .45 .31 .15 .41 .45 .96 .24 .57 .71 -.04 1.00 -.08 1.41 1.01 .42 .64
Services........................ 1.18 1.26 1.74 .88 1.46 .95 .77 1.57 1.20 1.18 .81 1.20 1.26 1.85 1.70 1.40 2.14 2.15 .71
Gross private domestic investment. 1.26 1.65 1.54 .63 -1.79 .09 1.26 1.33 2.45 2.48 -.12 2.17 2.92 .23 1.34 4.07 -.75 1.22 1.86
Fixed investment................ 1.21 1.18 1.59 1.09 .05 .47 1.00 1.65 1.83 1.29 .72 .83 1.63 1.66 .48 2.82 1.95 .33 2.17
Nonresidential................ .92 1.08 1.17 1.47 .67 .10 .61 1.29 1.09 1.37 .88 .71 1.39 1.67 .16 2.21 1.35 -.08 1.73
Structures.................. .14 .20 .00 .27 .14 -.01 -.11 .17 .20 .24 .64 .11 -.19 .35 .03 -.15 -.07 .01 .16
Producers' durable equipment .78 .88 1.17 1.19 .54 .11 .71 1.12 .89 1.12 .24 .59 1.58 1.32 .13 2.36 1.42 -.09 1.57
Residential................... .29 .10 .43 -.37 -.62 .37 .40 .36 .73 -.07 -.16 .12 .24 -.02 .32 .60 .60 .41 .44
Change in business inventories.. .04 .47 -.06 -.46 -1.84 -.39 .25 -.32 .61 1.17 -.83 1.33 1.27 -1.41 .85 1.22 -2.66 .89 -.31
Net exports of goods and services. -.19 -.27 -1.17 -.17 -.26 1.60 .70 -1.10 -.94 -1.33 2.35 -1.24 -.45 -.47 -.30 -2.24 -2.08 -.62 -.03
Exports......................... .95 1.43 .18 .91 .54 1.81 1.10 .43 .65 .23 3.22 .95 1.76 1.22 .53 -.33 -.92 -.32 1.94
Goods......................... .76 1.21 .19 .64 .45 1.16 .89 .57 .33 .57 2.06 1.19 1.37 1.02 .67 -.29 -.98 .04 1.66
Services...................... .18 .22 -.01 .27 .09 .64 .21 -.14 .33 -.34 1.14 -.24 .38 .20 -.14 -.04 .06 -.36 .27
Imports......................... -1.13 -1.71 -1.35 -1.09 -.80 -.20 -.40 -1.54 -1.60 -1.58 -.85 -2.21 -2.21 -1.69 -.83 -1.94 -1.18 -.30 -1.96
Goods......................... -1.02 -1.51 -1.23 -.72 -.87 -.14 -.29 -1.36 -1.52 -1.38 -.88 -1.87 -1.99 -1.38 -.71 -1.75 -1.19 -.32 -1.87
Services...................... -.11 -.20 -.12 -.37 .07 -.06 -.11 -.18 -.09 -.19 .02 -.34 -.21 -.31 -.12 -.19 .01 .01 -.09
Government consumption
expenditures and gross investment .20 .24 .19 .02 .22 -.15 -.78 .59 1.28 -.30 .00 .37 .38 .25 .02 -.34 .64 .27 .72
Federal......................... -.08 -.11 -.06 -.18 -.14 -.19 -1.10 .53 .54 -.33 -.44 -.18 .23 -.08 -.14 -.57 .44 -.09 .47
National defense.............. -.06 -.15 -.10 -.08 .01 -.27 -.63 .32 .37 -.30 -.39 -.46 .38 -.08 -.09 -.84 .38 .17 .05
Nondefense.................... -.01 .04 .04 -.11 -.14 .08 -.48 .20 .17 -.03 -.05 .27 -.15 .00 -.05 .26 .06 -.26 .42
State and local................. .28 .35 .24 .21 .36 .05 .33 .06 .74 .04 .44 .55 .15 .33 .15 .24 .20 .35 .25
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
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Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars
------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
--------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ----------------------
1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 8,508.9 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,537.9 8,672.8 7,549.9 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,498.6 7,566.5 7,670.0 280.1 67.9 103.5
Personal consumption expenditures.... 5,806.0 5,593.2 5,676.5 5,773.7 5,846.7 5,927.1 5,151.2 4,981.0 5,055.1 5,130.2 5,181.8 5,237.8 237.7 51.6 56.0
Durable goods...................... 723.5 682.2 705.1 720.1 718.9 749.8 735.9 684.8 710.3 729.4 733.7 770.1 67.3 4.3 36.4
Motor vehicles and parts......... 289.4 271.6 277.0 288.8 282.6 309.2 258.7 242.7 247.8 258.9 252.6 275.6 19.4 -6.3 23.0
Furniture and household
equipment....................... 292.0 276.0 288.5 288.9 294.1 296.6 347.1 318.1 335.8 339.3 352.0 361.3 39.4 12.7 9.3
Other............................ 142.0 134.6 139.6 142.3 142.2 144.0 138.5 130.8 135.1 138.6 139.1 141.2 10.8 .5 2.1
Nondurable goods................... 1,662.0 1,613.2 1,633.1 1,655.2 1,670.0 1,689.5 1,543.1 1,494.3 1,521.2 1,540.9 1,549.1 1,561.4 56.8 8.2 12.3
Food............................. 814.2 787.1 796.9 810.2 818.7 831.1 717.0 699.9 706.8 716.3 718.9 726.1 17.7 2.6 7.2
Clothing and shoes............... 293.7 280.7 291.0 295.3 293.7 294.9 310.3 292.3 307.4 311.4 309.8 312.5 21.9 -1.6 2.7
Gasoline and oil................. 112.6 125.9 116.2 111.6 111.7 110.8 119.8 118.1 118.5 118.4 121.1 121.3 1.9 2.7 .2
Fuel oil and coal................ 9.5 10.7 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.0 9.6 10.1 9.2 9.7 9.9 9.3 -.7 .2 -.6
Other............................ 431.9 408.8 419.4 428.3 436.2 443.7 390.5 376.8 383.5 389.2 393.4 396.1 17.5 4.2 2.7
Services........................... 3,420.5 3,297.8 3,338.2 3,398.4 3,457.7 3,487.8 2,879.4 2,804.8 2,829.3 2,866.8 2,904.8 2,916.8 117.9 38.0 12.0
Housing.......................... 877.8 847.0 859.1 871.9 883.8 896.5 735.0 723.9 728.7 732.7 737.1 741.4 17.6 4.4 4.3
Household operation.............. 339.3 337.0 327.6 339.2 348.4 342.0 317.5 311.1 306.3 316.5 326.3 320.9 16.2 9.8 -5.4
Electricity and gas............ 122.9 129.2 116.8 124.1 129.8 120.8 116.9 118.4 110.5 117.4 123.8 115.8 .9 6.4 -8.0
Other household operation...... 216.4 207.8 210.9 215.1 218.5 221.2 200.4 192.5 195.6 198.9 202.4 204.8 15.3 3.5 2.4
Transportation................... 252.5 246.3 249.5 253.2 253.4 254.1 220.3 215.9 217.9 221.4 220.5 221.2 8.1 -.9 .7
Medical care..................... 888.0 857.9 871.5 884.2 893.0 903.1 723.0 709.4 714.9 721.6 725.3 730.1 21.3 3.7 4.8
Other............................ 1,062.9 1,009.5 1,030.5 1,049.8 1,079.1 1,092.1 885.7 846.6 862.9 876.7 898.2 905.1 55.2 21.5 6.9
Gross private domestic investment.... 1,369.2 1,292.0 1,366.6 1,345.0 1,364.4 1,400.9 1,332.4 1,241.9 1,321.8 1,306.5 1,331.6 1,369.8 126.0 25.1 38.2
Fixed investment................... 1,308.8 1,220.1 1,271.1 1,305.8 1,307.5 1,350.9 1,268.9 1,169.5 1,224.9 1,264.1 1,270.9 1,315.6 130.9 6.8 44.7
Nonresidential................... 939.4 882.8 921.3 941.9 931.6 962.9 961.8 886.2 931.9 960.4 958.7 996.5 102.4 -1.7 37.8
Structures..................... 246.8 246.4 245.0 245.4 246.2 250.6 203.0 205.7 203.1 201.9 202.0 204.8 -.2 .1 2.8
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm.............. 183.6 178.9 180.6 181.8 183.7 188.1 150.6 149.5 150.1 149.8 150.1 152.5 .1 .3 2.4
Utilities.................... 34.8 34.1 34.2 34.7 35.0 35.3 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 .9 .2 .2
Mining exploration, shafts,
and wells................... 21.6 24.3 23.5 22.4 20.7 20.0 16.9 18.9 17.9 17.0 16.4 16.3 -1.0 -.6 -.1
Other structures............. 6.8 9.2 6.6 6.5 6.8 7.1 5.7 7.8 5.6 5.5 5.8 6.0 -.1 .3 .2
Producers' durable equipment... 692.6 636.4 676.3 696.6 685.4 712.3 771.6 686.4 738.8 771.3 769.3 806.8 110.7 -2.0 37.5
Information processing and
related equipment........... 233.5 213.6 226.5 231.6 235.2 240.8 388.4 320.7 353.4 376.8 399.6 423.8 90.4 22.8 24.2
Computers and peripheral
equipment................. 95.2 83.7 91.8 94.8 95.6 98.7 352.6 242.9 292.2 331.5 370.5 416.5 137.8 39.0 46.0
Other...................... 138.3 129.9 134.7 136.8 139.5 142.1 141.2 131.5 136.7 139.7 142.8 145.5 14.6 3.1 2.7
Industrial equipment......... 147.3 142.1 145.4 146.8 147.4 149.6 132.9 128.6 131.5 132.5 133.1 134.3 7.0 .6 1.2
Transportation and related
equipment................... 175.9 155.9 172.4 181.2 164.0 186.0 162.8 143.8 159.6 167.9 151.7 171.8 22.5 -16.2 20.1
Other........................ 135.9 124.8 132.0 137.0 138.8 135.9 123.2 114.1 120.2 124.6 125.8 122.3 10.2 1.2 -3.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars
------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
--------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ----------------------
1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential...................... 369.4 337.4 349.8 363.8 375.8 388.1 312.1 287.9 298.5 309.1 316.5 324.2 29.3 7.4 7.7
Structures..................... 360.9 329.4 341.5 355.4 367.3 379.5 303.9 280.1 290.5 300.9 308.3 315.9 28.8 7.4 7.6
Single family................ 187.3 168.7 175.8 183.8 190.9 198.7 153.1 139.0 145.2 151.3 155.6 160.2 15.9 4.3 4.6
Multifamily.................. 24.4 23.8 25.1 23.5 23.9 25.2 21.3 21.0 22.1 20.7 20.8 21.7 1.1 .1 .9
Other........................ 149.2 136.8 140.6 148.1 152.6 155.6 130.1 120.9 123.8 129.6 132.6 134.6 11.6 3.0 2.0
Producers' durable equipment... 8.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 .5 .0 .1
Change in business inventories
(CBI)............................. 60.4 71.9 95.5 39.2 57.0 50.0 58.5 66.5 91.4 38.2 55.7 48.9 -4.7 17.5 -6.8
Farm............................. 6.7 4.9 5.0 7.7 7.7 6.6 7.7 3.7 5.3 8.7 9.1 7.8 3.4 .4 -1.3
Nonfarm.......................... 53.7 66.9 90.5 31.5 49.3 43.3 51.1 62.7 85.9 29.9 47.0 41.7 -7.7 17.1 -5.3
Manufacturing.................. 24.1 18.7 31.8 25.1 20.1 19.4 23.0 17.7 30.2 23.9 19.2 18.9 2.9 -4.7 -.3
Wholesale trade................ 19.1 21.5 28.1 7.9 30.5 10.1 18.5 20.2 27.0 7.6 29.6 9.9 -3.5 22.0 -19.7
Retail trade................... 2.4 17.8 18.3 -12.7 -5.5 9.4 2.2 16.9 17.3 -11.9 -5.3 8.8 -4.6 6.6 14.1
Other.......................... 8.1 8.9 12.3 11.2 4.3 4.5 7.5 8.1 11.5 10.4 4.0 4.2 -2.4 -6.4 .2
Net exports of goods and services.... -154.1 -98.8 -123.7 -159.3 -165.5 -167.8 -241.4 -149.0 -198.5 -245.2 -259.0 -262.9 -105.3 -13.8 -3.9
Exports............................ 958.5 988.6 973.3 949.6 936.2 975.1 984.2 998.8 991.9 972.1 965.3 1,007.7 14.2 -6.8 42.4
Goods............................ 680.3 708.9 694.5 668.8 663.3 694.6 742.0 754.9 748.5 726.3 727.3 766.1 15.5 1.0 38.8
Foods, feeds, and beverages.... 45.8 54.0 49.8 44.9 42.4 46.2 42.8 47.4 45.6 41.7 39.9 44.2 -1.1 -1.8 4.3
Industrial supplies and
materials..................... 142.7 154.4 148.6 144.2 138.1 140.1 130.8 134.7 132.8 130.7 127.9 131.8 -1.6 -2.8 3.9
Capital goods, except
automotive.................... 301.0 306.5 302.0 288.4 299.2 314.2 408.1 408.7 405.5 389.7 407.6 429.6 19.5 17.9 22.0
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts..................... 72.6 76.6 77.7 72.2 65.3 75.0 68.9 72.9 73.9 68.7 62.1 71.0 -1.5 -6.6 8.9
Consumer goods, except
automotive.................... 79.6 78.8 78.3 80.1 80.3 79.8 75.9 74.8 74.4 76.3 76.6 76.2 2.2 .3 -.4
Other.......................... 38.6 38.5 38.1 39.1 37.9 39.3 39.2 38.3 38.3 39.5 38.7 40.4 2.0 -.8 1.7
Services......................... 278.2 279.7 278.8 280.8 272.9 280.5 246.5 248.6 247.8 248.8 242.1 247.2 -.5 -6.7 5.1
Imports............................ 1,112.6 1,087.4 1,097.1 1,108.9 1,101.7 1,142.9 1,225.7 1,147.8 1,190.4 1,217.3 1,224.3 1,270.6 119.6 7.0 46.3
Goods............................ 934.7 912.4 920.9 931.8 924.7 961.4 1,057.0 981.8 1,021.0 1,048.8 1,056.3 1,101.8 111.3 7.5 45.5
Foods, feeds, and beverages.... 41.1 40.3 41.7 41.8 40.5 40.6 38.0 36.3 38.2 38.3 37.8 37.6 2.5 -.5 -.2
Industrial supplies and
materials, except petroleum
and products.................. 143.3 139.0 141.3 144.4 144.8 142.6 137.6 127.3 132.8 137.3 140.3 140.0 13.9 3.0 -.3
Petroleum and products......... 51.6 68.6 54.9 53.9 49.2 48.1 72.4 66.9 68.3 74.5 73.4 73.3 5.7 -1.1 -.1
Capital goods, except
automotive.................... 271.4 264.8 268.9 270.5 267.0 279.3 428.2 396.7 413.6 424.7 426.2 448.5 54.9 1.5 22.3
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts..................... 150.3 141.0 148.0 146.0 143.5 163.6 137.9 129.1 135.5 133.9 132.2 150.2 8.5 -1.7 18.0
Consumer goods, except
automotive.................... 215.9 202.3 209.3 217.5 217.2 219.8 214.0 198.6 206.3 215.5 216.1 218.3 25.2 .6 2.2
Other.......................... 61.1 56.5 56.7 57.7 62.6 67.3 57.3 52.8 53.4 53.9 58.8 63.1 7.4 4.9 4.3
Services......................... 177.9 174.9 176.2 177.1 177.0 181.4 171.4 167.5 171.3 171.0 170.8 172.5 9.6 -.2 1.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1992) dollars
------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
--------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ----------------------
1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98 1998 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment................ 1,487.8 1,468.1 1,464.9 1,481.2 1,492.3 1,512.6 1,297.5 1,289.2 1,283.0 1,294.8 1,299.6 1,312.7 12.5 4.8 13.1
Federal............................ 520.7 520.1 511.6 520.7 519.4 531.0 453.5 456.5 446.1 454.1 452.5 461.2 -4.5 -1.6 8.7
National defense................. 340.3 346.5 331.6 339.8 343.7 346.0 300.4 308.7 293.3 300.3 303.5 304.5 -8.5 3.2 1.0
Consumption expenditures....... 301.4 304.8 293.3 303.0 302.9 306.4 264.1 270.0 257.9 266.1 265.1 267.3 -8.3 -1.0 2.2
Gross investment............... 38.9 41.7 38.3 36.8 40.9 39.5 36.3 38.7 35.4 34.1 38.5 37.1 -.2 4.4 -1.4
Nondefense....................... 180.4 173.6 180.0 180.9 175.7 185.1 152.3 147.3 151.9 152.9 148.4 155.9 3.7 -4.5 7.5
Consumption expenditures....... 159.7 155.3 157.6 160.9 155.8 164.6 131.6 129.0 130.0 132.9 128.4 135.2 2.9 -4.5 6.8
Gross investment............... 20.7 18.3 22.4 20.0 19.9 20.5 20.7 18.1 22.2 19.9 19.9 20.6 .9 .0 .7
State and local.................... 967.1 947.9 953.3 960.4 972.9 981.6 844.3 832.9 837.1 840.9 847.3 851.7 17.2 6.4 4.4
Consumption expenditures....... 789.2 771.5 776.7 784.7 793.9 801.7 689.4 678.5 682.8 687.3 691.6 695.8 17.1 4.3 4.2
Gross investment............... 177.8 176.4 176.6 175.7 179.0 179.9 154.8 154.3 154.2 153.5 155.6 155.8 .0 2.1 .2
Residual............................. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -162.3 -91.3 -124.7 -138.5 -175.7 -210.0 -86.8 -37.2 -34.3
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI).................... 8,448.5 8,182.6 8,288.7 8,401.3 8,480.9 8,622.8 7,488.3 7,294.8 7,372.5 7,456.4 7,507.6 7,616.9 284.6 51.2 109.3
Gross domestic purchases........... 8,663.0 8,353.3 8,508.0 8,599.9 8,703.4 8,840.6 7,766.6 7,502.1 7,644.9 7,718.6 7,798.8 7,904.0 370.1 80.2 105.2
Final sales to domestic purchasers. 8,602.5 8,281.4 8,412.5 8,560.6 8,646.4 8,790.6 7,704.8 7,432.1 7,552.2 7,676.4 7,739.8 7,850.8 374.6 63.4 111.0
Gross domestic product............. 8,508.9 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,537.9 8,672.8 7,549.9 7,364.6 7,464.7 7,498.6 7,566.5 7,670.0 280.1 67.9 103.5
Plus: Receipts of factor income
from the rest of the world........ ..... 266.3 270.3 270.6 265.0 ..... ..... 237.6 241.0 241.0 235.7 ..... ..... -5.3 .....
Less: Payments of factor income to
the rest of the world............. ..... 285.9 285.1 289.3 292.1 ..... ..... 250.5 249.6 252.8 254.6 ..... ..... 1.8 .....
Equals: Gross national product..... ..... 8,234.9 8,369.4 8,421.8 8,510.9 ..... ..... 7,350.7 7,455.2 7,485.9 7,546.7 ..... ..... 60.8 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components
for which relative prices are changing rapidly, the use of
chained-dollar estimates to calculate component shares or component
contributions to real growth may be misleading even just a few years
from the base year. For accurate estimates of the contributions to
percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 1.9 1.9 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .9 1.0 .8
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.0 1.9 .8 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 .0 .9 1.0 1.2
Durable goods..................... -.9 -2.0 -2.3 .4 -.4 -1.3 -1.1 .6 -2.1 -1.5 -1.8 -.9 -3.4 -2.8 -2.4 -1.4 -2.2 -3.0 -2.5
Nondurable goods.................. 2.0 1.5 .0 -.6 1.6 .8 .9 3.0 3.6 .3 3.6 2.0 -.2 .8 .9 -2.2 .2 1.5 1.5
Services.......................... 2.7 2.9 1.9 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.8
Gross private domestic investment... -.3 -.3 -1.3 1.7 1.9 -.1 -.2 -1.0 -.8 .7 -.5 -.7 -.5 .2 -.5 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -.7
Fixed investment.................. -.1 -.2 -1.2 1.6 1.9 -.1 .0 -.8 -.6 .8 -.2 -.6 -.5 .4 -.5 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -.7
Nonresidential.................. -.9 -1.3 -2.4 .2 2.0 -.7 -.8 -1.5 -1.5 -.5 -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.6 -2.3
Structures.................... 2.6 3.4 2.8 4.7 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.2 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 4.3 3.3 2.7 3.1 1.2 1.6
Producers' durable equipment.. -2.2 -3.0 -4.3 -1.5 1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.2 -2.6 -3.6 -3.2 -2.9 -3.3 -5.0 -5.2 -5.3 -3.6
Residential..................... 1.9 2.6 2.1 5.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.6 4.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 4.0 2.4 .0 1.7 3.7 3.2
Change in business inventories
(CBI)............................ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -1.7 -2.0 -2.1 4.0 3.4 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 -1.7 -3.2 -4.2 -1.0 -1.0 -1.6 -1.6 -3.4 -1.8 -2.8 -.9
Goods........................... -3.5 -3.5 -3.2 5.0 2.6 -3.1 -3.9 -3.4 -2.6 -5.6 -7.2 -1.7 -2.5 -1.8 -2.7 -4.7 -3.0 -3.8 -2.3
Services........................ 2.7 1.8 .6 1.6 5.4 1.5 1.8 4.6 .6 3.1 3.5 .9 2.7 -1.0 1.5 .0 1.1 -.4 2.6
Imports........................... -2.2 -3.7 -5.3 1.4 6.9 -3.9 -3.9 -1.8 -1.5 -5.2 -.3 -4.4 -7.1 -2.1 -2.3 -10.4 -4.5 -4.8 -.2
Goods........................... -2.9 -4.2 -6.0 2.8 5.7 -4.9 -4.2 -2.4 -2.1 -6.4 -.8 -4.6 -8.5 -1.9 -2.2 -11.3 -5.9 -5.8 -1.3
Services........................ 1.6 -.6 -1.5 -5.1 13.2 2.0 -2.5 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 -3.0 .3 -3.2 -2.6 -5.8 2.7 .4 6.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.5 2.2 1.3 4.8 2.9 2.2 3.9 4.3 -1.2 2.4 2.7 3.8 1.2 .8 2.2 1.1 .8 1.5 1.4
Federal........................... 2.9 2.0 1.1 5.8 1.4 2.5 8.2 4.2 -2.1 1.8 2.7 4.8 .9 -.2 1.4 2.7 .0 .4 1.3
National defense................ 3.3 1.8 1.1 4.3 2.1 2.7 4.3 6.7 -.3 1.9 2.7 4.0 .5 -.4 1.2 2.9 .3 .4 1.4
Nondefense...................... 2.2 2.4 1.0 9.0 -.2 2.1 16.5 -.7 -5.9 1.6 2.6 6.4 1.7 .4 1.8 2.2 -.6 .5 1.0
State and local................... 2.2 2.2 1.4 4.2 3.8 1.9 1.4 4.3 -.6 2.7 2.8 3.3 1.4 1.4 2.7 .2 1.2 2.1 1.5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI)................... 1.9 1.9 1.1 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.8 1.8 1.2 1.2 .9 .9 1.0 .9
Gross domestic purchases.......... 1.8 1.6 .6 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 .4 .7 .9
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 1.8 1.6 .6 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.3 .9 1.1 1.0 -.1 .5 .7 .9
Gross national product (GNP)...... 1.9 1.8 ..... 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .8 1.0 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 1.9 1.9 1.0 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 .8 .9 1.0 .8
Gross domestic purchases........ 1.8 1.6 .6 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.2 .8 1.1 1.1 -.2 .5 .7 .9
GNP............................. 1.9 1.8 ..... 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 .8 .9 1.0 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 1992=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index........ 112.02 116.42 120.91 117.94 119.54 120.09 121.17 122.83
Chain-type price index........... 109.54 111.57 112.71 112.09 112.33 112.57 112.85 113.09
Implicit price deflator.......... 109.53 111.57 112.70 112.08 112.32 112.56 112.84 113.07
Personal consumption expenditures:
Chain-type quantity index................ 112.62 116.44 122.07 118.04 119.79 121.58 122.80 124.12
Chain-type price index................... 109.75 111.81 112.71 112.30 112.30 112.55 112.84 113.17
Durable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 128.16 136.86 150.63 140.17 145.39 149.30 150.18 157.64
Chain-type price index................. 102.75 100.66 98.33 99.62 99.27 98.72 97.98 97.35
Nondurable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 109.77 112.44 116.74 113.05 115.09 116.57 117.19 118.12
Chain-type price index................. 106.08 107.69 107.69 107.95 107.35 107.41 107.80 108.20
Services:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 111.09 114.61 119.51 116.41 117.42 118.98 120.56 121.06
Chain-type price index................. 113.32 116.61 118.80 117.59 118.00 118.55 119.05 119.59
Gross private domestic fixed investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 134.10 145.25 161.97 149.28 156.36 161.36 162.23 167.92
Chain-type price index................... 104.68 104.45 103.20 104.37 103.81 103.33 102.91 102.73
Nonresidential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 139.21 154.04 172.41 158.86 167.04 172.15 171.84 178.62
Chain-type price index................. 101.46 100.15 97.72 99.64 98.90 98.12 97.21 96.66
Residential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 122.32 125.36 138.36 127.64 132.34 137.05 140.31 143.73
Chain-type price index................. 113.03 115.96 118.35 117.20 117.21 117.71 118.77 119.71
Exports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 134.50 151.70 153.93 156.21 155.12 152.03 150.96 157.60
Chain-type price index................... 101.60 99.53 97.39 98.97 98.13 97.68 96.98 96.76
Imports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 145.19 165.35 183.22 171.59 177.95 181.97 183.02 189.93
Chain-type price index................... 99.36 95.72 90.69 94.62 92.05 90.98 89.87 89.84
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 100.35 101.68 102.67 102.01 101.53 102.45 102.84 103.87
Chain-type price index................... 110.80 113.20 114.65 113.87 114.17 114.39 114.82 115.23
Federal:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 88.19 86.75 85.89 86.46 84.50 86.00 85.71 87.34
Chain-type price index................. 111.35 113.58 114.81 113.91 114.66 114.66 114.77 115.13
State and local:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 109.09 112.42 114.74 113.19 113.77 114.28 115.16 115.76
Chain-type price index................. 110.48 112.96 114.55 113.83 113.89 114.23 114.83 115.25
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 111.61 115.49 120.06 116.95 118.20 119.54 120.36 122.12
Chain-type price index................. 109.59 111.66 112.84 112.19 112.45 112.69 112.99 113.23
Implicit price deflator................ 109.59 111.66 112.82 112.17 112.43 112.67 112.97 113.21
Gross domestic purchases:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 113.18 117.89 123.79 119.57 121.85 123.03 124.30 125.98
Chain-type price index................. 109.18 110.92 111.54 111.34 111.29 111.42 111.60 111.85
Implicit price deflator................ 109.18 110.92 111.54 111.35 111.29 111.42 111.60 111.85
Final sales to domestic purchasers:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 112.78 116.97 122.94 118.59 120.51 122.49 123.50 125.27
Chain-type price index................. 109.24 111.00 111.66 111.44 111.40 111.53 111.72 111.98
Implicit price deflator................ 109.23 111.00 111.65 111.43 111.39 111.52 111.71 111.97
Gross national product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 112.04 116.16 ..... 117.51 119.18 119.67 120.64 .....
Chain-type price index................. 109.51 111.51 ..... 112.04 112.28 112.51 112.79 .....
Implicit price deflator................ 109.50 111.52 ..... 112.03 112.26 112.50 112.78 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
[Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.0 7.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.4 1.2 -.9 2.7 2.3 3.5 2.3 3.4 3.9 3.9
Personal consumption expenditures...... 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.9 2.3 1.7 -.6 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 4.8
Durable goods........................ 14.7 14.5 9.7 9.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 -.6 -6.4 5.8 7.2 7.1 5.0 6.3 6.8 10.1
Nondurable goods..................... 2.9 3.5 2.3 3.2 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 3.8
Services............................. 4.7 4.1 5.0 3.2 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.6 .8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.2 4.3
Gross private domestic investment...... 9.4 29.8 -1.1 -1.5 1.2 .8 4.3 -5.6 -9.4 7.1 9.3 13.0 2.1 8.8 11.3 10.4
Fixed investment..................... 7.2 16.5 4.8 .7 -.7 2.4 1.7 -3.1 -8.0 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.5 8.8 8.3 11.5
Nonresidential..................... -1.7 17.3 6.2 -3.5 -1.1 4.4 4.0 -.6 -6.4 1.9 7.6 8.0 9.6 9.3 10.7 11.9
Structures....................... -10.4 14.3 7.3 -10.8 -3.6 .5 2.2 1.1 -10.7 -6.8 1.0 1.0 4.8 5.0 7.1 -.1
Producers' durable equipment..... 4.6 19.2 5.5 1.0 .3 6.4 5.0 -1.5 -4.1 6.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 10.9 12.1 16.7
Residential........................ 41.1 14.6 1.4 12.0 .2 -2.0 -3.7 -9.3 -12.3 16.6 7.6 10.1 -3.8 7.4 2.5 10.4
Change in business inventories
(CBI)............................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. -2.6 8.3 2.7 7.4 11.0 15.9 11.7 8.5 6.3 6.6 2.9 8.2 11.3 8.5 12.8 1.5
Goods.............................. -2.9 7.9 3.6 5.1 11.0 18.8 12.5 8.3 7.0 7.0 3.4 9.9 12.5 9.7 15.4 2.1
Services........................... -1.7 9.3 .3 13.3 10.9 8.7 9.4 9.1 4.4 5.5 2.0 4.3 8.2 5.6 6.6 -.2
Imports.............................. 12.6 24.3 6.5 8.4 6.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 -.7 7.5 8.9 12.2 8.8 9.2 13.9 10.8
Goods.............................. 13.6 24.2 6.3 10.3 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.0 .0 9.6 10.5 13.6 9.6 10.0 14.7 11.8
Services........................... 8.1 24.8 7.4 .4 12.9 3.6 2.6 7.6 -3.2 -1.0 1.9 5.3 4.9 5.4 9.9 5.9
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 2.8 3.1 6.1 5.1 2.7 1.3 2.8 3.0 .6 .5 -.9 .0 .2 1.1 1.3 1.0
Federal.............................. 5.4 2.4 6.9 4.6 3.1 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.5 -2.1 -4.2 -3.8 -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0
National defense................... 5.7 4.0 7.5 5.2 4.0 -.9 -1.0 .0 -1.0 -5.5 -5.7 -4.9 -4.0 -1.3 -3.2 -2.7
Nondefense......................... 4.6 -2.2 5.1 2.8 .1 -4.9 9.2 8.0 1.1 7.2 -.7 -1.1 -1.8 -.5 1.7 2.5
State and local...................... .7 3.8 5.3 5.5 2.4 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4 2.4 1.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.1 2.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI)...................... 3.7 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 4.1 3.0 1.6 -.7 2.5 2.1 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.5 4.0
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.6 .6
GDP price index...................... 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.0
Real disposable personal income...... 2.7 7.4 2.9 2.9 1.9 4.1 2.0 1.8 -.1 2.7 1.3 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.0 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.5 4.1
Personal consumption expenditures...... 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.7 3.7 4.2 5.3 4.7 5.2
Durable goods........................ 4.5 5.0 6.0 4.5 6.2 7.9 5.2 5.8 7.4 3.9 8.5 7.4 8.2 11.6 8.0 12.5
Nondurable goods..................... 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 1.8 2.8 2.0 2.9 4.3 3.6 4.5
Services............................. 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.0
Gross private domestic investment...... 7.8 -.6 1.2 .2 1.6 9.2 13.7 11.0 12.4 12.9 8.7 11.3 14.3 7.9 9.5 10.3
Fixed investment..................... 7.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 8.9 10.5 9.9 8.4 8.0 8.6 8.2 11.8 12.2 9.6 12.5
Nonresidential..................... 11.5 10.8 9.0 7.3 6.6 7.6 11.0 11.7 10.2 11.0 11.6 9.8 13.5 13.2 8.7 12.4
Structures....................... 7.9 4.2 4.3 2.7 1.7 2.3 4.6 11.6 10.9 7.2 8.1 2.5 .3 1.3 -1.5 -.4
Producers' durable equipment..... 13.0 13.4 10.8 9.1 8.6 9.8 13.6 11.8 9.9 12.4 13.0 12.7 19.0 18.0 12.7 17.6
Residential........................ -.5 -8.1 -5.1 -1.4 3.1 12.3 9.2 5.4 3.9 .8 1.2 4.2 7.2 9.4 12.1 12.6
Change in business inventories
(CBI)............................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 13.0 9.9 11.7 10.5 9.1 9.2 5.4 10.3 11.5 14.0 16.3 9.6 6.7 .9 -2.3 .9
Goods.............................. 15.3 11.9 12.4 10.8 10.2 9.6 7.5 11.4 13.5 16.9 18.2 13.1 8.3 1.0 -1.8 1.5
Services........................... 7.7 5.2 10.0 9.8 6.4 8.2 .4 7.5 6.7 7.1 11.5 1.5 2.9 .5 -3.6 -.5
Imports.............................. 12.9 10.0 7.2 5.6 6.4 7.9 10.8 11.8 13.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.3 11.1 8.3 10.7
Goods.............................. 14.5 11.3 7.7 5.5 6.9 8.4 11.6 13.0 14.2 15.2 14.9 14.3 13.9 11.9 9.3 12.2
Services........................... 5.5 3.6 4.5 6.1 3.5 5.5 7.2 5.5 7.5 9.1 10.5 12.4 10.3 7.4 3.4 3.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 1.1 1.3 -.8 -.9 -.1 1.3 1.1 2.1 1.8 .6 1.4 1.4 .4 .8 .8 1.8
Federal.............................. -1.8 -1.0 -4.7 -5.6 -3.2 -.8 -1.3 1.1 -1.5 -2.6 -1.7 -.6 -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 1.0
National defense................... -2.0 -2.3 -6.7 -5.0 -2.9 -1.0 -1.3 -.1 -4.3 -4.1 -3.0 -1.4 -3.8 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4
Nondefense......................... -1.2 1.7 -.4 -7.0 -3.7 -.2 -1.3 3.5 4.3 .6 .9 .9 .8 3.2 .1 5.8
State and local...................... 3.0 2.8 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.8 2.6 3.2 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product
(GDP less CBI)...................... 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.8 3.1 3.7 3.6 2.9 4.1 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.5 4.4
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 .7 .6 .5 .5
GDP price index...................... 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 .9
Real disposable personal income...... 4.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4
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Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 7,661.6 8,110.9 8,508.9 8,254.5 8,384.2 8,440.6 8,537.9 8,672.8
Plus: Receipts of factor income from
the rest of the world..................... 235.5 265.5 ..... 266.3 270.3 270.6 265.0 .....
Less: Payments of factor income to
the rest of the world..................... 223.1 273.5 ..... 285.9 285.1 289.3 292.1 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 7,674.0 8,102.9 ..... 8,234.9 8,369.4 8,421.8 8,510.9 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 832.0 871.8 908.0 887.6 894.5 902.3 912.3 922.9
Less: Indirect business tax and
nontax liability.......................... 606.4 627.2 655.6 634.5 641.9 647.7 656.5 676.2
Less: Business transfer payments........... 33.8 35.1 36.1 35.6 35.6 36.0 36.3 36.4
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -32.2 -55.8 ..... -67.3 -54.1 -85.7 -102.0 .....
Plus: Subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises......... 22.0 21.9 24.8 23.4 23.5 23.9 24.6 27.1
Equals: National income.................... 6,256.0 6,646.5 ..... 6,767.9 6,875.0 6,945.5 7,032.3 .....
Compensation of employees................ 4,409.0 4,687.2 4,980.3 4,798.0 4,882.8 4,945.2 5,011.6 5,081.8
Wage and salary accruals............... 3,640.4 3,893.6 4,153.2 3,993.6 4,065.9 4,121.6 4,181.1 4,244.1
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 768.6 793.7 827.1 804.4 816.8 823.5 830.5 837.7
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 527.7 551.2 575.5 558.0 564.2 571.7 576.1 590.0
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 150.2 158.2 162.0 158.8 158.3 161.0 163.6 165.0
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 750.4 817.9 ..... 820.8 829.2 820.6 827.0 .....
Net interest............................. 418.6 432.0 ..... 432.4 440.5 447.1 454.0 .....
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 7,693.8 8,166.7 ..... 8,321.8 8,438.4 8,526.3 8,639.9 .....
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Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 6,425.2 6,784.0 7,123.6 6,904.9 7,003.9 7,081.9 7,160.8 7,247.9
Wage and salary disbursements............ 3,631.1 3,889.8 4,149.2 3,989.9 4,061.9 4,117.6 4,177.1 4,240.0
Other labor income....................... 387.0 392.9 406.9 397.0 402.8 405.7 408.4 411.0
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments................. 527.7 551.2 575.5 558.0 564.2 571.7 576.1 590.0
Farm................................... 38.9 35.5 27.1 31.4 27.4 27.7 25.2 28.3
Nonfarm................................ 488.8 515.8 548.4 526.6 536.8 544.0 550.9 561.7
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 150.2 158.2 162.0 158.8 158.3 161.0 163.6 165.0
Personal dividend income................. 248.2 260.3 263.1 261.3 261.6 262.1 263.0 265.7
Personal interest income................. 719.4 747.3 764.9 753.0 757.0 763.0 769.2 770.2
Transfer payments to persons............. 1,068.0 1,110.4 1,149.5 1,120.5 1,139.0 1,145.8 1,152.9 1,160.2
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance........................ 306.3 326.2 347.4 333.6 340.9 345.1 349.5 354.2
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..... 890.5 989.0 1,098.1 1,025.5 1,066.8 1,092.9 1,108.4 1,124.3
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 5,534.7 5,795.1 6,025.5 5,879.4 5,937.1 5,988.9 6,052.4 6,123.6
Less: Personal outlays..................... 5,376.2 5,674.1 5,998.1 5,781.2 5,864.0 5,963.3 6,039.8 6,125.4
Equals: Personal saving.................... 158.5 121.0 27.4 98.2 73.0 25.6 12.6 -1.8
Addenda:
Disposable personal income,
billions of chained (1992) dollars\2\... 5,043.0 5,183.1 5,346.1 5,235.8 5,287.1 5,321.5 5,364.1 5,411.5
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 2.9 2.1 .5 1.7 1.2 .4 .2 .0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 I 95 II 95 III 95 IV 95 I 96 II 96 III 96 IV 96 I 97 II 97 III 97 IV 97 I 98 II 98 III 98 IV 98
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP and related aggregates:
GDP............................... 3.4 3.9 3.9 1.7 .4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.7 5.6
Goods............................. 4.5 5.9 4.9 2.8 -3.0 4.9 5.9 3.7 7.1 4.3 3.8 8.7 6.0 5.4 3.8 12.0 -4.1 3.4 10.4
Services.......................... 2.4 2.6 3.1 1.4 3.6 2.4 .5 2.5 4.2 .9 3.9 1.1 3.5 3.4 2.6 1.4 5.6 3.4 2.5
Structures........................ 5.6 4.1 4.1 -.9 -4.6 3.0 3.9 7.1 13.4 .5 8.1 5.5 -1.6 4.5 1.7 5.3 4.5 6.2 5.7
Motor vehicle output.............. -.4 5.9 3.1 8.6 -13.3 -9.3 27.4 -31.6 54.8 -7.7 -9.1 13.2 -6.3 27.2 15.2 -8.6 -11.2 -11.2 80.7
GDP less motor vehicle output..... 3.6 3.9 3.9 1.5 1.0 3.8 1.9 5.0 4.6 2.5 4.8 3.9 4.4 3.4 2.5 6.1 2.3 4.2 3.5
Final sales of computers\1\....... 63.1 55.3 62.0 61.1 58.3 61.2 82.2 71.6 44.7 73.9 34.0 43.1 85.9 74.4 27.7 68.3 65.3 91.3 41.5
GDP less final sales of computers. 2.9 3.4 3.3 1.3 -.1 2.9 2.1 2.7 5.6 1.5 3.9 3.8 3.2 3.6 2.7 5.0 1.2 2.9 5.2
Farm product\2\................... 9.1 14.9 2.1 -27.5 -11.1 -27.0 21.6 30.7 10.8 1.9 14.9 36.4 13.6 13.6 -19.1 10.8 1.0 10.1 -3.8
Nonfarm business less housing
product\3\....................... 4.1 4.5 4.7 2.2 .4 5.2 3.2 4.2 6.6 2.2 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.1 7.1 1.7 4.0 6.9
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 1.9 1.9 1.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.1 .9 .9 1.0 .8
GDP less food and energy.......... 1.7 1.9 1.1 2.9 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.0 .8 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 .9 1.0 .9
Gross domestic purchases.......... 1.8 1.6 .6 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 .9 1.1 1.0 -.2 .4 .7 .9
Gross domestic purchases less
food and energy.................. 1.5 1.6 .9 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.7 .6 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.7 .9 1.0 .7 .7 .7 1.0
Gross domestic purchases less
computers........................ 2.2 2.0 1.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 .4 1.0 1.3 1.5
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.0 1.9 .8 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 .0 .9 1.0 1.2
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.8 1.8 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices
This note describes the chain-type quantity and price indexes that, in combination with the current-dollar estimates,
provide users with the basic data series from which all other analytical tables and presentations of GDP are derived.
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in
the economy in a particular period. For many purposes, it is necessary to decompose these changes into quantity and
price components. Prices are expressed as index numbers with the base period at present, the year 1992--equal to 100.
Quantities, or "real" measures, are expressed as index numbers with the base period (1992) equal to 100. (The
current-dollar values and price indexes for most GDP components are determined largely using data from federal
government surveys. The real values (expressed with 1992 as the base period) of these components are calculated by
deflation at the most detailed level for which all the required data are available by dividing the current-dollar value of the
component by its price index, where the price index uses 1992 as the base period.)
The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years. (Similar formulas are used to calculate the quarterly indexes for the most recent quarters, called the "tail"
period and for the indexes for the other quarters, called the "historical period.") For example, the 1996-97 annual percent
change in real GDP uses prices for 1996 and 1997 as weights, and the 1996-97 annual percent change in price uses
quantities for 1996 and 1997 as weights. These annual changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of
quantity and price. Because the Fisher formula allows for the effects of changes in relative prices and in the composition
of output over time, the resulting quantity or price changes are not affected by the substitution bias associated with
changes in quantities and prices calculated using a fixed-weighted formula. The Fisher formula also produces changes in
quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of base periods. In addition, because the changes in quantities and
prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity index and the corresponding price index
equals the current-dollar index. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level, known as the "implicit price deflator
(IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by
100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index for all periods.)
Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6A, and 6B.
Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. BEA also prepares measures of real
GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1992) dollar estimates." For GDP and most
other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying the 1992 current-dollar value by
a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component
equaled $100 in 1992 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1993, then the chained (1992) dollar
value of this component in 1993 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).
For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding. However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the base period differ from
those used for the base period, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the
chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate. A measure of the extent of such differences is provided
by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or an other major aggregate) and the sum of the most
detailed components in the table. For periods close to the base year, when there usually has not been much change in the
relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained (1992)
dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. As one
moves further from the base period, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar estimates become less
useful for analyses of contributions to growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are changing
rapidly, these calculations may be misleading even just a few years from the base year. In such cases, table 2 on
contributions provides a better basis for determining the composition of GDP growth than the chained-dollar estimates.
References: "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey of Current Business (SCB) pp. 36-40.
"BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 SCB, pp. 58-68.