News Release
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. For more information, refer to the "Technical Notes" below.
Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in government spending that were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, the same as previously estimated. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.4 percent, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 0.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $118.1 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $204.7 billion in the fourth quarter.
| Real GDP and Related Measures (Percent change from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025) |
||
|---|---|---|
| Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | |
| Real GDP | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Current-dollar GDP | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Real GDI | … | -0.2 |
| Average of real GDP and real GDI | … | -0.2 |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| PCE price index | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.5 | 3.4 |
Next release:
June 26, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate)
Gross Domestic Product by Industry
1st Quarter 2025
Technical Notes
Sources of revisions to real GDP in the second estimate
Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent (less than 0.1 percent at a quarterly rate1), an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.
- Within investment, an upward revision to private inventory investment primarily reflected an updated BEA adjustment to Census Bureau book value data to account for notable increases in imports. Updated and newly available information on the industries impacted the adjustment and led to an upward revision to nondurable goods manufacturing (specifically, chemical manufacturing) that was largely offset by a downward revision to nondurable goods wholesale trade (drugs and sundries). Private inventory investment in other industries (mainly, information) was also revised up, based on new Census Bureau Quarterly Financial Report data.
- The downward revision to consumer spending reflected downward revisions to services and goods.
- Within services, the downward revision was led by health care, recreation services, and financial services and insurance, based primarily on new data from the Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey.
- Within goods, the downward revision was led by food and beverages and by recreational goods and vehicles, based on revised Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey data.
More information on the source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the first-quarter estimate is shown in the key source data and assumptions table.
1 Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more information, refer to the FAQ "Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?".