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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, January 30, 2020

BEA 20—04

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 27, 2020.

Real GDP: Percent change from proceeding quarter

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports, that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was the same as that in the third. In the fourth quarter, a downturn in imports, an acceleration in government spending, and a smaller decrease in nonresidential investment were offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment and a slowdown in PCE.

Current dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $191.7 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $21.73 trillion. In the third quarter, GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $202.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the third quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $148.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $162.6 billion in the third quarter. The smaller increase reflected decelerations in proprietors’ income, personal current transfer receipts, and personal dividend income that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in personal interest income and an acceleration in compensation (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $127.4 billion, or 3.1 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $179.5 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent.

Personal saving was $1.29 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $1.30 trillion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 7.8 percent in the third quarter.

2019 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2019 (from the 2018 annual level to the 2019 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2018 (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in 2019 reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment. Imports increased (table 2).

The deceleration in real GDP in 2019, compared to 2018, primarily reflected decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and PCE and a downturn in exports, which were partly offset by accelerations in both state and local and federal government spending. Imports increased less in 2019 than in 2018.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $848.8 billion, in 2019 to a level of $21.43 trillion, compared with an increase of 5.4 percent, or $1,060.8 billion, in 2018 (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent in 2019, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2018 (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (table 4).

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.3 percent during the period. That compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2018. The price index for gross domestic purchases, as measured from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2019, increased 1.5 percent during 2019. That compared with an increase of 2.2 percent during 2018. The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent (table 6).

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the source data and key assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

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Next release: February 27, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Second Estimate)

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Release Dates in 2020
Release Dates in 2020

Estimate	2019 Q4 and Year 2019	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2020 Q3

Gross Domestic Product
Advance Estimate	January 30, 2020	April 29, 2020	July 30, 2020	October 29, 2020
Second Estimate	February 27, 2020	May 28, 2020	August 27, 2020	November 25, 2020
Third Estimate	March 26, 2020	June 25, 2020	September 30, 2020	December 22, 2020

Corporate Profits
Preliminary Estimate	---	May 28, 2020	August 27, 2020	November 25, 2020
Revised Estimate	March 26, 2020	June 25, 2020	September 30, 2020	December 22, 2020

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Technical Note (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Key source data and assumptions (Excel)

Revision Information

GDP

Lisa Mataloni

301-278-9083

gdpniwd@bea.gov

Media (BEA)

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

Resources

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Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA's interactive data application.
Access BEA data by registering for BEA's data application programming interface (API).
For more on BEA's statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
BEA's news release schedule
NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value." Also referred to as "nominal estimates" or as "current-price estimates."

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons."
Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. t includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj) adjustment in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the geographic borders of the United States. The rest-of-the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual-vs-quarterly rates. Quarterly seasonally adjusted values are expressed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. This convention is used for BEA's featured, seasonally adjusted measures to facilitate comparisons with related and historical data. For details, see the FAQ "Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?" Quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are expressed only at quarterly rates.

Percent changes.Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ "How is average annual growth calculated?" Percent changes in quarterly not seasonally adjusted values are calculated from the same quarter one year ago. All published percent changes are calculated from unrounded data.

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual and quarterly data are presented on a calendar basis.

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed and more comprehensive data as they become available.

The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage	Average Revision Without Regard to Sign (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second	0.5
Advance to third	0.6
Second to third	0.3
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2018. For more information on GDP updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site.

Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at least the 5 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts. Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.

Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these data are not available until the third estimate.