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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Friday, February 28, 2020

BEA 20-08

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2020

Personal income increased $116.5 billion (0.6 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $101.4 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.6 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in January and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

	2019				2020
	Sep.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.6
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.6
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	-0.1	0.4	-0.1	0.5
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1
Price indexes:
PCE	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.1
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.5	1.7
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.6

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Included in the Third Quarter of 2019

This release includes revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for July through September 2019 (third quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of new third-quarter data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and social security benefit payments (related to annual cost of living adjustments), and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit (table 3).

The $12.9 billion increase in real PCE in January reflected increases of $2.2 billion in spending for goods and $10.3 billion in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for food services and accommodations. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $27.0 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $1.33 trillion in January, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.9 percent (table 1).

Updates

Estimates have been updated for July through December 2019. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	November				December
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	84.1	85.8	0.4	0.5	40.7	28.2	0.2	0.1
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	70.0	71.8	0.4	0.4	30.6	21.0	0.2	0.1
Chained (2012) dollars	47.8	52.7	0.3	0.4	-12.1	-18.9	-0.1	-0.1
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	65.3	45.6	0.4	0.3	46.6	54.8	0.3	0.4
Chained (2012) dollars	45.3	30.3	0.3	0.2	6.8	16.0	0.1	0.1

Next release: March 27, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays: February 2020

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Personal Income

Marissa Crawford

(301) 278-9729

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

Media (BEA)

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving g is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.

Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago