This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Work Context and Industrial Composition Determine the Epidemiological Responses in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Key economic indicators, such as GDP and unemployment rates, provide a useful backdrop for assessing the state of the economy. However, more nuanced statistics can be of use during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we extend the domain of relevance for economic statistics by developing a… Read more

Christopher Blackburn , Juan Moreno-Cruz
JEL Code(s)I10

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Account Aggregates

There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This paper aims to bring clarity to this topic by 1)… Read more

Baoline Chen, Tucker S. McElroy, Osbert C. Pang
JEL Code(s)E01

Alternative Price and Volume Measures for Commercial Bank and Fund Management Services

In the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, commercial bank and fund management services grew modestly or declined in volume terms after 2008, despite substantial increases in the levels of assets and liabilities managed by these businesses. These estimates of limited growth result partly… Read more

Robert Kornfeld
JEL Code(s)E01

Preliminary Estimates of the U.S. Space Economy, 2012–2018


Tina Highfill, Annabel Jouard, Connor Franks
JEL Code(s)None Assigned

Consumer Prices During A Stay-in-Place Policy: Theoretical Inflation for Unavailable Products

Major product categories like full service restaurant meals, live entertainment, and nonessential personal services are unavailable during a stay-in-place policy. As a result, their inflation rates cannot be measured directly. The standard methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS… Read more

Rachel Soloveichik
JEL Code(s)E31

Measuring Infrastructure in the Bureau of Economic Analysis National Economic Accounts

Infrastructure provides critical support for economic activity, and assessing its role requires reliable measures. This paper provides an overview of U.S. infrastructure data in the National Economic Accounts. After developing definitions of basic, social, and digital infrastructure, we assess… Read more

Jennifer Bennett, Robert Kornfeld, Daniel E. Sichel, David B. Wasshausen
JEL Code(s)E22

Measuring Inequality in the National Accounts

This paper provides context for the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) prototype estimates of the distribution of income. It describes measurement questions, such as what concept of income should be used, and a summary of the results for the 2007–2018 period. The paper also presents a… Read more

Dennis J. Fixler, Marina Gindelsky, David Johnson
JEL Code(s)None Assigned

Spending by Condition for the Long-Term Care Population Using Medicaid Claims

Health care spending for the nursing home sector has been an understudied topic despite institutionalized long-term care patients often facing higher mortality rates, having numerous and serious comorbidities, and accounting for over $194 billion dollars in personal health care expenditure just… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Peter Shieh, Lasanthi Fernando, Charles Roehrig
JEL Code(s)I10

The Geography of Consumption and Local Economic Shocks: The Case of the Great Recession

Geographic analysis of consumption is often constrained by geographic borders such as counties, but economic agents often cross borders to consume. Using unique card transaction data, we estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States and… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Mahsa Gholizadeh
JEL Code(s)E20, E24, R12, R20

Metropolitan Statistical Area Location Choice by Foreign Direct Investors in the United States

The importance of new foreign direct investment as a vehicle for the formation of productive capital has stimulated interest in understanding why multinational enterprises (MNEs) choose particular locations for their investments. Using data from greenfield investments reported on the BEA Survey… Read more

Thomas Anderson
JEL Code(s)F23