This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The Geography of Consumption and Local Economic Shocks: The Case of the Great Recession

Geographic analysis of consumption is often constrained by geographic borders such as counties, but economic agents often cross borders to consume. Using unique card transaction data, we estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States and… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Mahsa Gholizadeh
JEL Code(s)E20, E24, R12, R20

Metropolitan Statistical Area Location Choice by Foreign Direct Investors in the United States

The importance of new foreign direct investment as a vehicle for the formation of productive capital has stimulated interest in understanding why multinational enterprises (MNEs) choose particular locations for their investments. Using data from greenfield investments reported on the BEA Survey… Read more

Thomas Anderson
JEL Code(s)F23

The Owner-Premium Adjustment in Housing Imputations

This paper describes and alternative to the rental equivalence and the user cost approaches for imputing consumer expenditures on owner-occupied housing services. The alternative uses the estimated value of the dwelling relative to the median value of similar homes as an adjustment to the rental… Read more

Bettina H. Aten, Alan Heston
JEL Code(s)R31

A Reconciliation of Health Care Expenditures in the National Health Expenditures Accounts and in Gross Domestic Product

This paper provides a detailed reconciliation of the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA), the official estimates of health care spending in the United States from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the estimates of health expenditures that are part of gross domestic… Read more

Robert Kornfeld, Micah Hartman, Nathan A. Espinosa, Regina L. Butler, Aaron Catlin
JEL Code(s)E01, I10

Measuring the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer Spending Using Card Transaction Data

We evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer spending using daily card transaction data. Overall, we find large effects of this pandemic on sectors such as accommodations and restaurants, which by the second week of March, show declines of around 80 percent and 70… Read more

Abe C. Dunn, Kyle K. Hood, Alexander Driessen
JEL Code(s)E01, E21

Measuring the Small Business Economy

To better track the overall growth and relative contributions of small business in the U.S. economy, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is developing new economic statistics by business size. The paper begins with a description of existing economic statistics for small businesses, including… Read more

Tina Highfill, Richard Cao, Richard Schwinn, Richard Prisinzano, Danny Leung
JEL Code(s)None Assigned

Energy Efficiency in General Equilibrium with Input-Output Linkages

Industrial activity periodically experiences breakthrough innovations in energy efficiency, but the estimated impacts of these innovations on aggregate energy use are highly varied. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate whether this variation is determined by the structure of the… Read more

Juan Moreno-Cruz
JEL Code(s)None Assigned

Toward Developing Estimates Of U.S. Imports Of Illegal Drugs

This paper explores potential ways to develop experimental estimates of the value of U.S. imports of illegal drugs. It builds on the initial exploration of this topic by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Soloveichik (2019), which presents experimental estimates of U.S. domestic… Read more

Sarah Atkinson
JEL Code(s)None Assigned

Nowcasting of Advance Estimates of Personal Consumption of Services in the U.S. National Accounts: Individual vs Forecasting Combination Approach

This paper evaluates two individual nowcasting frameworks, the bridge equation and bridging with factors model, in concert with a set of forecast combination techniques for nowcasting the advance estimates of quarterly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) of services at the detailed component… Read more

Baoline Chen, Kyle K. Hood
JEL Code(s)C53, E01

Measuring Trade in Services by Mode of Supply

This paper reviews the efforts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to measure international services categorized by mode of supply. BEA has adopted a survey form that uses an innovative approach to collect information on mode of supply by simply having companies report the percentage of its… Read more

Michael Mann
JEL Code(s)None Assigned