Latest Research

The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Work Context and Industrial Composition Determine the Epidemiological Responses in a Multi-Group SIR Model



Key economic indicators, such as GDP and unemployment rates, provide a useful backdrop for assessing the state of the economy. However, more nuanced statistics can be of use during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we extend the domain of relevance for economic statistics by developing a… Read more

By Christopher Blackburn , Juan Moreno-Cruz

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Account Aggregates



There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This paper aims to bring clarity to this topic by 1)… Read more

By Baoline Chen, Tucker S. McElroy, Osbert C. Pang

Alternative Price and Volume Measures for Commercial Bank and Fund Management Services



In the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, commercial bank and fund management services grew modestly or declined in volume terms after 2008, despite substantial increases in the levels of assets and liabilities managed by these businesses. These estimates of limited growth result partly… Read more

By Robert Kornfeld

Consumer Prices During A Stay-in-Place Policy: Theoretical Inflation for Unavailable Products

This paper is primarily a theoretical proof of concept. However, the inflation estimates developed in this paper could be updated to include future quarters if BEA management is interested in updates.

Major product categories like full service restaurant meals, live entertainment, and nonessential personal services are unavailable during a stay-in-place policy. As a result, their inflation rates cannot be measured directly. The standard methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS… Read more

By Rachel Soloveichik