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James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 00-05
Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays)
Recorded message: 606-5303
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JANUARY 2000
Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.7 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $61.4 billion, or 0.9 percent, in January, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $33.0 billion, or 0.5 percent. In December, personal income increased $21.0 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $10.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $68.6 billion, or 1.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
1999 2000
Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.7
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars -.2 1.3 .4 .1 .9
Chained (1996) dollars -.5 1.1 .3 .0 .7
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars .5 .5 .8 1.1 .5
Chained (1996) dollars .2 .3 .7 .9 .3
The January and December changes in personal income were affected by a number of special factors. The January change was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to federal transfer payment programs, by pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel, and by federal agricultural subsidy payments. The January change was reduced by program changes affecting personal contributions for social insurance and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. The December change was reduced by federal agricultural subsidy payments and by union contract signing bonuses in the manufacturing sector in November. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $45.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, in January, and increased $48.7 billion, or 0.6 percent, in December. These special factors are discussed more fully below.
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $28.5 billion in January, compared with an increase of $28.3 billion in December. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $11.3 billion, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $5.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $0.5 billion. The December change in manufacturing payrolls reflected in part the pattern of signing bonuses for union employees in the automotive industries, which were $1.6 billion at an annual rate in November. Distributive industries' payrolls increased $3.1 billion in January, compared with an increase of $16.2 billion in December. Service industries' payrolls increased $14.0 billion, compared with an increase of $10.2 billion.
Government wage and salary disbursements increased $9.8 billion, compared with an increase of $3.3 billion. Pay raises for federal civilian and military personnel added $6.9 billion to government payrolls in January.
Other personal income
Proprietors' income increased $5.6 billion in January, in contrast to a decrease of $18.8 billion in December. Farm proprietors' income increased $0.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $24.4 billion. The changes in farm proprietors' income reflected the pattern of specially authorized federal farm subsidy payments, which were $1.6 billion at an annual rate in January, $0.7 billion at an annual rate in December, and $25.2 billion at an annual rate in November . Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $5.3 billion in January, compared with an increase of $5.6 billion in December.
Rental income of persons decreased $0.6 billion in January, compared with a decrease of $4.9 billion in December. The changes in rental income of persons reflected in part the pattern of specially authorized federal agricultural subsidy payments to owners of leased farm land, which were $0.4 billion in January, $0.2 billion in December, and $5.5 billion in November.
Transfer payments increased $10.4 billion in January, compared with an increase of $6.7 billion in December. The changes in transfer payments reflected 2.4-percent cost-of-living adjustments to social security benefits and several other federal transfer payment programs, which added $10.9 billion to January. The January increase in transfer payments was reduced by lump-sum social security benefits payments, which had added $3.7 billion to December transfer payments; these benefit payments resulted from a recalculation of the earnings base underlying the benefits for recent retirees.
Personal interest income increased $4.2 billion in January, compared with an increase of $4.5 billion in December. Personal dividend income increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $2.1 billion.
Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $4.5 billion in January, compared with an increase of $1.8 billion in December. The January increase reflected the effect of an increase in the social security taxable wage base for employees and the self-employed (from $72,600 to $76,200), which added $2.5 billion to January personal contributions for social insurance.
Personal taxes and disposable personal income
Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $2.9 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $11.1 billion in December. In January, federal income tax payments were reduced by $5.4 billion, reflecting the provisions of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 and the indexation provisions of current tax law.
Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $61.4 billion, or 0.9 percent, in January, compared with an increase of $10.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, in December.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) -- increased $35.0 billion in January, compared with an increase of $70.8 billion in December. PCE increased $33.0 billion, compared with an increase of $68.6 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $95.9 billion in January, compared with $69.5 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 1.4 percent in January, compared with 1.0 percent in December.
Real DPI and real PCE
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.7 percent in January, in contrast to a slight decrease in December.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in December. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for the January increase. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.5 percent in January, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent in December. A drop in purchases of food more than accounted for the January decrease. Purchases of services increased 0.6 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in December.
Revisions
Estimates have been revised for October through December. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (1996) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1996) dollar PCE for November and December -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Revisions for October were small.
Change from preceding month
November December
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars.... 31.2 31.8 0.4 0.4 25.4 21.0 0.3 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars.... 25.7 26.3 .4 .4 14.0 10.0 .2 .1
Chained (1996) dollars 17.7 18.0 .3 .3 2.7 -1.5 .0 .0
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars.... 41.5 52.8 .7 .8 51.3 68.6 .8 1.1
Chained (1996) dollars 33.2 43.6 .5 .7 38.7 54.8 .6 .9
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.doc.gov>
STAT-USA maintains an Internet site that contains BEA estimates, the Survey of Current Business, and BEA news releases. The information available through STAT-USA is often more detailed and more timely than that available from other sources. For information about STAT-USA, go to <www.stat-usa.gov>, or call (202) 482-1986. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet information are $50.00 for 3 months or $150.00 for 1 year.
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
606-5303 Personal income and outlays
606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's monthly journal. The printed Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. First class mail: Annual subscription $120.00 domestic. Second class mail: Annual subscription $48.00 domestic, $60.00 foreign; single issue $17.25 domestic, $21.56 foreign.
* * *
Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for February will be released on
March 31, 2000, at 8:30 A.M. EST.
Table 1. -- Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
1998 1999 1999 2000
Aug. Sep. Oct. /r/ Nov. /r/ Dec. /r/ Jan. /p/
Personal income 7,358.9 7,791.0 7,840.0 7,848.1 7,941.4 7,973.2 7,994.2 8,052.8
Wage and salary disbursements 4,186.0 4,472.4 4,508.2 4,528.5 4,556.9 4,569.8 4,601.4 4,639.7
Private industries 3,493.2 3,745.9 3,777.6 3,795.6 3,821.2 3,831.4 3,859.7 3,888.2
Goods-producing industries 1,038.7 1,082.4 1,087.3 1,093.6 1,101.4 1,100.3 1,102.3 1,113.6
Manufacturing 757.5 779.7 785.2 788.0 793.7 789.3 788.8 794.0
Distributive industries 944.6 1,005.8 1,013.1 1,017.3 1,018.8 1,021.1 1,037.3 1,040.4
Service industries 1,509.9 1,657.7 1,677.2 1,684.6 1,700.9 1,710.0 1,720.2 1,734.2
Government 692.8 726.5 730.7 732.9 735.7 738.4 741.7 751.5
Other labor income 515.7 535.8 538.6 540.3 541.9 543.7 545.4 548.3
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 606.1 658.5 657.8 650.6 684.1 694.6 675.8 681.4
Farm 25.1 31.4 21.4 18.0 45.3 46.8 22.4 22.7
Nonfarm 581.0 627.1 636.4 632.5 638.7 647.8 653.4 658.7
Rental income of persons with CCAdj 137.4 145.9 143.6 128.5 148.1 149.0 144.1 143.5
Personal dividend income 348.3 364.3 367.0 369.0 371.1 373.1 375.2 377.5
Personal interest income 897.8 930.5 938.8 945.3 950.8 955.6 960.1 964.3
Transfer payments to persons 983.6 1,018.1 1,022.6 1,023.6 1,027.9 1,027.3 1,034.0 1,044.4
Old-age, survivors, disability, and health
insurance benefits 578.1 596.4 599.4 600.8 604.2 602.4 607.4 616.0
Government unemployment insurance benefits 19.8 20.3 20.4 20.1 19.8 20.0 20.4 20.0
Other 385.7 401.4 402.8 402.8 403.9 404.9 406.2 408.3
Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 315.9 334.6 336.6 337.8 339.3 340.0 341.8 346.3
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment.
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 2. -- The Disposition of Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
1998 1999 1999 2000
Aug. Sep. Oct. /r/ Nov. /r/ Dec. /r/ Jan. /p/
Personal income 7,358.9 7,791.0 7,840.0 7,848.1 7,941.4 7,973.2 7,994.2 8,052.8
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments 1,072.6 1,151.9 1,151.0 1,170.7 1,175.8 1,181.3 1,192.4 1,189.5
Equals: Disposable personal income 6,286.2 6,639.0 6,689.0 6,677.4 6,765.6 6,791.9 6,801.9 6,863.3
Less: Personal outlays 6,056.6 6,483.5 6,537.7 6,571.0 6,606.5 6,661.6 6,732.4 6,767.4
Personal consumption expenditures 5,848.6 6,257.3 6,309.9 6,342.2 6,376.1 6,428.9 6,497.5 6,530.5
Interest paid by persons 185.7 201.7 203.3 204.4 205.3 207.6 209.8 211.8
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net) 22.3 24.4 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1
Equals: Personal saving 229.7 155.5 151.4 106.4 159.1 130.3 69.5 95.9
Addenda:
Disposable personal income:
Chained (1996) dollars /1/ 6,125.1 6,367.2 6,403.5 6,373.3 6,443.9 6,461.9 6,460.4 6,503.9
Per capita:
Current dollars 23,231 24,304 24,455 24,390 24,692 24,769 24,788 24,997
Chained (1996) dollars 22,636 23,309 23,411 23,280 23,517 23,565 23,544 23,688
Population (thousands) 270,595 273,161 273,520 273,773 274,005 274,209 274,399 274,562
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income 3.7 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.0 1.4
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1. Disposable personal income in chained (1996) dollars equals the current-dollar figure divided by
the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 3. -- Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
1998 1999 1999 2000
Aug. Sep. Oct. /r/ Nov. /r/ Dec. /r/ Jan. /p/
Personal income 407.8 432.1 34.0 8.1 93.3 31.8 21.0 58.6
Wage and salary disbursements 297.1 286.4 16.8 20.3 28.4 12.9 31.6 38.3
Private industries 268.8 252.7 13.4 18.0 25.6 10.2 28.3 28.5
Goods-producing industries 63.2 43.7 -2.5 6.3 7.8 -1.1 2.0 11.3
Manufacturing 38.7 22.2 -0.8 2.8 5.7 -4.4 -0.5 5.2
Distributive industries 65.5 61.2 3.3 4.2 1.5 2.3 16.2 3.1
Service industries 140.1 147.8 12.6 7.4 16.3 9.1 10.2 14.0
Government 28.4 33.7 3.5 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.3 9.8
Other labor income 14.8 20.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.9
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 27.5 52.4 4.1 -7.2 33.5 10.5 -18.8 5.6
Farm -4.4 6.3 -2.1 -3.4 27.3 1.5 -24.4 0.3
Nonfarm 31.9 46.1 6.2 -3.9 6.2 9.1 5.6 5.3
Rental income of persons with CCAdj 7.2 8.5 -1.3 -15.1 19.6 0.9 -4.9 -0.6
Personal dividend income 14.9 16.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3
Personal interest income 42.9 32.7 6.4 6.5 5.5 4.8 4.5 4.2
Transfer payments to persons 21.2 34.5 4.8 1.0 4.3 -0.6 6.7 10.4
Old-age, survivors, disability, and health
insurance benefits 12.3 18.3 2.6 1.4 3.4 -1.8 5.0 8.6
Government unemployment insurance benefits -0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.4
Other 9.1 15.7 2.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 2.1
Less: Personal contributions for social
insurance 17.8 18.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.8 4.5
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments 104.3 79.3 -8.5 19.7 5.1 5.5 11.1 -2.9
Equals: Disposable personal income 303.4 352.8 42.5 -11.6 88.2 26.3 10.0 61.4
Less: Personal outlays 344.9 426.9 52.0 33.3 35.5 55.1 70.8 35.0
Personal consumption expenditures 324.2 408.7 50.8 32.3 33.9 52.8 68.6 33.0
Interest paid by persons 19.0 16.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 2.3 2.2 2.0
Personal transfer payments to the rest of the
world (net) 1.7 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equals: Personal saving -41.4 -74.2 -9.4 -45.0 52.7 -28.8 -60.8 26.4
Addendum:
Disposable personal income,
chained (1996) dollars 240.5 242.1 25.7 -30.2 70.6 18.0 -1.5 43.5
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment.
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 4. -- Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
1998 1999 1999 2000
Aug. Sep. Oct. /r/ Nov. /r/ Dec. /r/ Jan. /p/
Billions of current dollars
Personal consumption expenditures 5,848.6 6,257.3 6,309.9 6,342.2 6,376.1 6,428.9 6,497.5 6,530.5
Durable goods 698.2 758.6 765.7 766.6 767.0 784.9 794.1 799.8
Nondurable goods 1,708.9 1,842.7 1,854.9 1,870.4 1,883.5 1,895.8 1,933.5 1,926.7
Services 3,441.5 3,656.0 3,689.2 3,705.1 3,725.6 3,748.2 3,769.9 3,804.1
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
Personal consumption expenditures 5,698.6 6,000.9 6,040.5 6,053.3 6,072.9 6,116.5 6,171.3 6,188.6
Durable goods 731.5 815.7 826.0 826.9 828.8 849.3 861.7 868.9
Nondurable goods 1,685.3 1,775.8 1,782.6 1,783.3 1,792.5 1,805.7 1,833.7 1,824.8
Services 3,284.5 3,417.4 3,440.3 3,451.3 3,459.8 3,471.8 3,487.3 3,506.7
Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1996 = 100)
Personal consumption expenditures 102.63 104.27 104.46 104.77 104.99 105.11 105.28 105.53
Durable goods 95.45 93.00 92.71 92.71 92.54 92.42 92.15 92.04
Nondurable goods 101.40 103.77 104.06 104.88 105.08 104.99 105.44 105.58
Services 104.78 106.98 107.24 107.35 107.68 107.96 108.10 108.48
Change From Preceding Period
Billions of current dollars
Personal consumption expenditures 324.2 408.7 50.8 32.3 33.9 52.8 68.6 33.0
Durable goods 55.3 60.4 12.6 0.9 0.4 17.9 9.2 5.7
Nondurable goods 67.2 133.9 18.5 15.5 13.1 12.3 37.7 -6.8
Services 201.7 214.5 19.7 15.9 20.5 22.6 21.7 34.2
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
Personal consumption expenditures 264.9 302.3 34.5 12.8 19.6 43.6 54.8 17.3
Durable goods 74.1 84.2 15.2 0.9 1.9 20.5 12.4 7.2
Nondurable goods 65.4 90.5 10.7 0.7 9.2 13.2 28.0 -8.9
Services 127.8 132.9 10.0 11.0 8.5 12.0 15.5 19.4
Table 5.-- Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series
Based on current dollars
Personal income 5.9 5.9 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.7
Disposable personal income 5.1 5.6 0.6 -0.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.9
Personal consumption expenditures 5.9 7.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.5
Durable goods 8.6 8.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 1.2 0.7
Nondurable goods 4.1 7.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.0 -0.4
Services 6.2 6.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9
Based on chained (1996) dollars
Disposable personal income 4.1 4.0 0.4 -0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.7
Personal consumption expenditures 4.9 5.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3
Durable goods 11.3 11.5 1.9 0.1 0.2 2.5 1.5 0.8
Nondurable goods 4.0 5.4 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.6 -0.5
Services 4.0 4.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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