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James E. Rankin: (202) 606-5301 (Personal Income) BEA 01-34
Greg Key: 606-5302 (Personal Outlays)
Recorded message: 606-5303
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: SEPTEMBER 2001
Personal income increased $0.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income
(DPI) decreased $86.7 billion, or 1.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $130.2 billion, or 1.8 percent. In
August, personal income increased $6.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $145.0 billion, or 1.9
percent, and PCE increased $23.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, based on revised estimates.
2001
May June July Aug. Sept.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.9 -1.1
Chained (1996) dollars 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.9 -0.6
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 -1.8
Chained (1996) dollars 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 -1.3
Adjustments for the September 11 Terrorist Attacks
The September estimates of personal income and outlays reflected the effects of the terrorist
attacks on the World Trade Center and on the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Most of the effects
of disasters on personal income and outlays are reflected in the usual source data, such as the Census
Bureau's monthly data on retail sales. For certain components, however, BEA prepares adjustments
to account for the effects of a disaster not captured in the source data. The following paragraphs
describe the effects of BEA's adjustments for the terrorist attacks on personal income and outlays.
Because most of the effects of the attacks are embedded in the source data and cannot easily be
separated out, BEA will not attempt to quantify the total impact of the attacks on personal income
and outlays. Although BEA cannot quantify the impact, presumably much of the September decline
in PCE reflected reduced consumer spending in the aftermath of the attacks.
Wages and salaries: The estimates of wage and salaries were adjusted because the regular
source data on employment, hours, and earnings are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly
employment survey, which covers the mid-month pay period; thus for September, these data did not
fully reflect the changes to labor markets following the September 11 attacks. BEA's adjustments to
wages reflected a mixture of decreased hours due to work interruptions, decreased employment due
to layoffs, and increased hours due to overtime work. The effect of the adjustments made by BEA
was to lower private wages and salaries for September by $10.0 billion and to raise state and local
government wages by $2.5 billion.
PCE: Within PCE for services, expenditures for life insurance, workers' compensation, and
motor vehicle insurance were adjusted downward to reflect benefits payable to persons. The
increase in benefits was treated as a reduction in the average net premiums paid for life insurance
services. These adjustments lowered current-dollar PCE for September by $61.4 billion (at an
annual rate) and also lowered the PCE price index; real PCE was not affected by these insurance-
related adjustments. Other adjustments to PCE for services did not have a major effect on PCE.
Adjustments lowered some additional components of spending (motor vehicle rental, spectator
sports, and amusement parks) and raised others (video cassette rental); the net effect of these other
adjustments was to lower PCE for services by about $2.5 billion.
Effects of Other Special Factors
Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax payments --
was affected by several special factors in addition to the September 11 attacks. The largest of these
factors was advance refund checks sent to taxpayers beginning in July as part of the Economic
Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, which lowered net income tax payments. In
addition to the refund checks, the Act lowered income tax withholding rates beginning in July. The
July change in DPI was also boosted by an increase in transfer payments, which reflected one-time
payments to correct for underpayments of benefits associated with an error in the indexing for social
security and supplemental security income benefits.
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $2.7 billion in September, compared with a
decrease of $2.6 billion in August. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $2.7 billion,
compared with a decrease of $3.0 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $3.8 billion, compared
with a decrease of $4.1 billion. Distributive industries' payrolls decreased $4.1 billion, compared
with a decrease of $3.0 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $4.1 billion, compared with an
increase of $3.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $4.7 billion,
compared with an increase of $3.2 billion.
Other personal income
Proprietors' income decreased $9.9 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $5.2
billion in August. Farm proprietors' income increased $2.2 billion, compared with an increase of
$2.4 billion. Nonfarm proprietors' income decreased $12.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.7
billion.
Transfer payments increased $7.0 billion in September, in contrast to a decrease of $1.8 billion
in August. The decrease in August reflected the one-time payments of $11.2 billion (at an annual
rate) to social security recipients and of $1.5 billion to supplemental security income recipients,
which boosted transfer payments in July. These payments were made to correct for the
underpayment of benefits. Personal interest income decreased $2.8 billion in September, compared
with a decrease of $3.0 billion in August. Personal dividend income increased $2.9 billion,
compared with an increase of $3.2 billion. Rental income of persons increased $0.4 billion,
compared with an increase of $1.6 billion.
Personal contributions for social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income --
decreased $0.3 billion in September, compared with a decrease of $0.4 billion in August.
Personal taxes and disposable personal income
Personal tax and nontax payments increased $87.5 billion in September, in contrast to a
decrease of $138.1 billion in August and a decrease of $96.5 billion in July. Changes in personal tax
and nontax payments reflected advance refund checks sent to taxpayers beginning in July, which
subtracted $131.2 in September (at an annual rate), $209.4 billion in August, and $81.4 billion
in July, and a reduction in income tax withholding rates, which subtracted $13.7 billion in September,
August, and July. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal tax and nontax
payments -- decreased $86.7 billion, or 1.1 percent, in September, increased $145.0 billion,
or 1.9 percent, in August, and increased $131.3 billion, or 1.8 percent, in July.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to the rest of
the world (net) -- decreased $131.4 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $22.0 billion in
August. PCE decreased $130.2 billion, in contrast to an increase of $23.3 billion. Purchases of durable
goods decreased $27.2 billion, compared with a decrease of $2.7 billion. Purchases of nondurable goods
decreased $27.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.9 billion. Purchases of services decreased
$75.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $20.1 billion. As mentioned above, much of the decrease in
PCE for services reflected benefits payable for life insurance, workers' compensation, and motor vehicle
insurance, which were treated as reductions in the average net premiums paid for insurance services.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $357.4 billion in September, compared with
$312.8 billion in August. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.7
percent in September, compared with 4.1 percent in August.
Real DPI and real PCE
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.6 percent in September, in
contrast to an increase of 1.9 percent in August.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 1.3 percent in September, in
contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Purchases of durable goods decreased 2.8 percent,
in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for about
half of the September decrease. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 2.4 percent in September,
in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent in August. Purchases of services decreased 0.4 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent.
As discussed above, the implicit prices for insurance declined because the increase in benefit payments
resulted in a reduction in the average net premium paid for insurance services. The PCE price index
decreased 0.6 percent in September; excluding the insurance-related price effects, the PCE price index
increased 0.3 percent.
Revisions
Estimates have been revised for July and August. Changes in personal income, current-dollar
and chained (1996) dollar DPI, and current-dollar and chained (1996) dollar PCE for July and
August -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.
Change from preceding month
July August
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Dollars) (Percent) (Dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars......... 44.1 34.9 0.5 0.4 1.8 6.8 0.0 0.1
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars......... 128.9 131.3 1.7 1.8 141.0 145.0 1.9 1.9
Chained (1996) dollars.. 122.6 122.7 1.8 1.8 128.7 130.4 1.9 1.9
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars......... 15.7 14.1 0.2 0.2 14.9 23.3 0.2 0.3
Chained (1996) dollars.. 19.2 15.7 0.3 0.2 13.6 19.6 0.2 0.3
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.doc.gov>
STAT-USA maintains an Internet site that contains BEA estimates, the Survey of Current
Business, and BEA news releases. For information about STAT-USA, go to <www.stat-usa.gov>,
or call (202) 482-1986. Subscriptions for single-user unlimited access to STAT-USA's Internet
information are $75.00 for 3 months or $175.00 for 1 year.
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
606-5303 Personal income and outlays
606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses appear in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- Personal Income and Outlays for October will be released on
December 3, 2001, at 8:30 A.M. EST.
Table 1.-Personal Income
[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 2000 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01/r/ Aug 01/r/ Sep 01/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 7,777.3 8,319.2 8,697.0 8,709.3 8,737.6 8,772.5 8,779.3 8,780.1
Wage and salary disbursements..... 4,472.2 4,837.2 5,092.8 5,091.7 5,115.0 5,128.4 5,128.9 5,130.9
Private industries.............. 3,747.9 4,068.8 4,296.7 4,292.7 4,311.3 4,320.1 4,317.5 4,314.8
Goods-producing industries.... 1,088.7 1,163.7 1,208.1 1,203.5 1,201.7 1,203.7 1,200.7 1,198.0
Manufacturing............... 782.0 830.1 856.8 848.2 845.5 847.5 843.4 839.6
Distributive industries....... 1,021.0 1,095.6 1,146.9 1,145.2 1,152.4 1,152.3 1,149.3 1,145.2
Service industries............ 1,638.2 1,809.5 1,941.7 1,944.0 1,957.2 1,964.1 1,967.5 1,971.6
Government...................... 724.3 768.4 796.1 799.0 803.7 808.3 811.5 816.2
Other labor income................ 509.7 534.2 551.3 552.0 553.3 554.4 555.3 556.1
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 672.0 715.0 740.0 746.0 750.1 752.1 757.3 747.4
Farm............................ 26.6 30.6 29.0 28.8 28.3 29.5 31.9 34.1
Nonfarm......................... 645.4 684.4 711.0 717.1 721.8 722.7 725.4 713.3
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 147.7 141.6 138.1 140.3 138.6 142.4 144.0 144.4
Personal dividend income.......... 343.1 379.2 409.6 411.9 414.3 416.9 420.1 423.0
Personal interest income.......... 950.0 1,000.6 1,005.1 1,000.7 997.2 994.2 991.2 988.4
Transfer payments to persons...... 1,019.6 1,069.1 1,134.1 1,140.3 1,143.6 1,158.9 1,157.1 1,164.1
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 588.0 617.3 658.7 660.7 660.8 672.6 669.5 673.3
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. 20.3 20.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.9
Other......................... 411.2 431.5 452.3 456.4 459.9 462.8 463.9 465.9
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 337.1 357.7 374.0 373.5 374.5 375.0 374.6 374.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 2.-The Disposition of Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 2000 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01/r/ Aug 01/r/ Sep 01/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 7,777.3 8,319.2 8,697.0 8,709.3 8,737.6 8,772.5 8,779.3 8,780.1
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 1,159.2 1,288.2 1,348.9 1,349.0 1,356.4 1,259.9 1,121.8 1,209.3
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 6,618.0 7,031.0 7,348.1 7,360.3 7,381.2 7,512.5 7,657.5 7,570.8
Less: Personal outlays.............. 6,457.2 6,963.3 7,254.5 7,280.8 7,309.7 7,322.7 7,344.7 7,213.3
Personal consumption expenditures. 6,250.2 6,728.4 7,017.3 7,043.7 7,072.8 7,086.9 7,110.2 6,980.0
Interest paid by persons.......... 179.7 205.3 206.5 206.3 206.2 205.1 203.8 202.6
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... 27.2 29.6 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7
Equals: Personal saving............. 160.9 67.7 93.6 79.5 71.4 189.8 312.8 357.4
Addenda:
Disposable personal income:
Chained (1996) dollars\1\....... 6,320.0 6,539.2 6,712.4 6,717.7 6,727.4 6,850.1 6,980.5 6,941.4
Per capita:
Current dollars............... 24,242 25,528 26,486 26,509 26,564 27,016 27,516 27,183
Chained (1996) dollars........ 23,150 23,742 24,194 24,195 24,211 24,634 25,083 24,924
Population (thousands)\2\....... 272,996 275,423 277,436 277,649 277,864 278,078 278,292 278,506
Personal saving as a percentage
of disposable personal income.... 2.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 2.5 4.1 4.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
2. Population is the total population of the United States, including the Armed
Forces overseas and the institutionalized population. The monthly estimate is
the average of estimates for the first of the month and the first of the
following month; the annual estimate is the average of the monthly estimates.
Prior to January 2001, first-of-the-month estimates are from Census Bureau
surveys and are consistent with the 1990 Census of Population. Beginning with
January 2001, first-of-the-month estimates are derived by BEA based on
extrapolations of the Census Bureau estimates.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 3.-Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period
[Billions of dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 2000 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01/r/ Aug 01/r/ Sep 01/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 351.3 541.9 20.8 12.3 28.3 34.9 6.8 .8
Wage and salary disbursements..... 279.4 365.0 19.0 -1.1 23.3 13.4 .5 2.0
Private industries.............. 247.8 320.9 15.6 -4.0 18.6 8.8 -2.6 -2.7
Goods-producing industries.... 50.2 75.0 -2.5 -4.6 -1.8 2.0 -3.0 -2.7
Manufacturing............... 25.4 48.1 3.1 -8.6 -2.7 2.0 -4.1 -3.8
Distributive industries....... 72.1 74.6 4.7 -1.7 7.2 -.1 -3.0 -4.1
Service industries............ 125.5 171.3 13.4 2.3 13.2 6.9 3.4 4.1
Government...................... 31.6 44.1 3.4 2.9 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.7
Other labor income................ 19.1 24.5 1.0 .7 1.3 1.1 .9 .8
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments.......... 48.2 43.0 -.2 6.0 4.1 2.0 5.2 -9.9
Farm............................ 1.0 4.0 .6 -.2 -.5 1.2 2.4 2.2
Nonfarm......................... 47.2 39.0 -.8 6.1 4.7 .9 2.7 -12.1
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment... 9.1 -6.1 .2 2.2 -1.7 3.8 1.6 .4
Personal dividend income.......... -5.2 36.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.9
Personal interest income.......... -14.4 50.6 -4.0 -4.4 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8
Transfer payments to persons...... 35.9 49.5 3.1 6.2 3.3 15.3 -1.8 7.0
Old-age, survivors, disability,
and health insurance benefits.. 9.9 29.3 2.7 2.0 .1 11.8 -3.1 3.8
Government unemployment
insurance benefits............. .8 .0 .4 -.1 -.1 .4 .3 1.2
Other.......................... 25.1 20.3 .1 4.1 3.5 2.9 1.1 2.0
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance................. 20.8 20.6 .8 -.5 1.0 .5 -.4 -.3
Less: Personal tax and nontax
payments........................... 88.8 129.0 -.5 .1 7.4 -96.5 -138.1 87.5
Equals: Disposable personal income.. 262.4 413.0 21.2 12.2 20.9 131.3 145.0 -86.7
Less: Personal outlays.............. 403.1 506.1 23.7 26.3 28.9 13.0 22.0 -131.4
Personal consumption expenditures. 394.2 478.2 23.3 26.4 29.1 14.1 23.3 -130.2
Interest paid by persons.......... 6.0 25.6 -.2 -.2 -.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.2
Personal transfer payments to the
rest of the world (net).......... 2.9 2.4 .7 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0
Equals: Personal saving............. -140.6 -93.2 -2.4 -14.1 -8.1 118.4 123.0 44.6
Addendum:
Disposable personal income:
chained (1996) dollars\1\........ 151.4 219.2 7.5 5.3 9.7 122.7 130.4 -39.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
1. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 4-Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product
[Billions of dollars; months seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 2000 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01/r/ Aug 01/r/ Sep 01/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 6,250.2 6,728.4 7,017.3 7,043.7 7,072.8 7,086.9 7,110.2 6,980.0
Durable goods..................... 760.9 819.6 840.2 837.6 856.4 853.1 850.4 823.2
Nondurable goods.................. 1,831.3 1,989.6 2,055.3 2,067.6 2,064.0 2,063.0 2,068.9 2,041.6
Services.......................... 3,658.0 3,919.2 4,121.8 4,138.5 4,152.3 4,170.8 4,190.9 4,115.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 5,968.4 6,257.8 6,410.2 6,428.8 6,446.3 6,462.0 6,481.6 6,399.8
Durable goods..................... 817.8 895.5 930.1 931.3 952.9 950.0 951.4 924.6
Nondurable goods.................. 1,766.4 1,849.9 1,877.1 1,882.1 1,878.8 1,890.0 1,900.8 1,855.7
Services.......................... 3,393.2 3,527.7 3,620.7 3,632.7 3,635.8 3,642.5 3,649.8 3,635.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chain-type price indexes (1996=100)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 104.72 107.52 109.48 109.57 109.73 109.68 109.71 109.07
Durable goods..................... 93.04 91.53 90.33 89.93 89.88 89.81 89.39 89.05
Nondurable goods.................. 103.67 107.55 109.50 109.86 109.86 109.15 108.85 110.02
Services.......................... 107.80 111.10 113.85 113.93 114.22 114.52 114.84 113.20
Addendum:
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy........... 104.99 107.02 108.54 108.41 108.58 108.85 108.94 107.96
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change from preceding period
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 394.2 478.2 23.3 26.4 29.1 14.1 23.3 -130.2
Durable goods..................... 67.7 58.7 2.5 -2.6 18.8 -3.3 -2.7 -27.2
Nondurable goods.................. 122.8 158.3 18.8 12.3 -3.6 -1.0 5.9 -27.3
Services.......................... 203.7 261.2 2.0 16.7 13.8 18.5 20.1 -75.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal consumption expenditures... 284.7 289.4 9.9 18.6 17.5 15.7 19.6 -81.8
Durable goods..................... 91.1 77.7 4.8 1.2 21.6 -2.9 1.4 -26.8
Nondurable goods.................. 80.0 83.5 9.0 5.0 -3.3 11.2 10.8 -45.1
Services.......................... 119.8 134.5 -3.0 12.0 3.1 6.7 7.3 -14.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Table 5.-Percent Change From Preceding Period in Selected Series
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 2000 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01/r/ Aug 01/r/ Sep 01/p/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on current dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income..................... 4.7 7.0 .2 .1 .3 .4 .1 .0
Disposable personal income.......... 4.1 6.2 .3 .2 .3 1.8 1.9 -1.1
Personal consumption expenditures... 6.7 7.7 .3 .4 .4 .2 .3 -1.8
Durable goods..................... 9.8 7.7 .3 -.3 2.2 -.4 -.3 -3.2
Nondurable goods.................. 7.2 8.6 .9 .6 -.2 -.1 .3 -1.3
Services.......................... 5.9 7.1 .0 .4 .3 .4 .5 -1.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on chained (1996) dollars
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disposable personal income.......... 2.5 3.5 .1 .1 .1 1.8 1.9 -.6
Personal consumption expenditures... 5.0 4.8 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 -1.3
Durable goods..................... 12.5 9.5 .5 .1 2.3 -.3 .1 -2.8
Nondurable goods.................. 4.7 4.7 .5 .3 -.2 .6 .6 -2.4
Services.......................... 3.7 4.0 -.1 .3 .1 .2 .2 -.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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