Early Estimates of the Impact of AI Within BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts

Currently, there is not a line item in the U.S. national accounts that can be used to identify and measure the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Therefore, we use tools to indirectly estimate the impact of AI via the lens of BEA’s industry accounts. Throughout, we discuss important economic measurement challenges and make recommendations for next steps. Our baseline model finds evidence that AI is productivity enhancing and input saving and that AI is associated with a shift toward younger, relatively less educated workers. However, an alternative specification that makes different choices about the timing of the pervasiveness of AI yields less robust results, though it also suggests that AI is labor saving. Our findings highlight the importance of additional research and progress on economic measurement related to AI.