This page provides access to papers and presentations prepared by BEA staff. Abstracts are presented in HTML format; complete papers are in PDF format with selected tables in XLS format. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis or the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Predictive Testing for Granger Causality via Posterior Simulation and Cross Validation

This paper develops a predictive approach to Granger causality testing that utilizes k-fold cross-validation and posterior simulation to perform out-of-sample testing. A Monte Carlo study indicates that the cross-validation predictive procedure has improved power in comparison to previously… Read more

By Gary Cornwall, Jeffrey A. Mills, Beau A. Sauley, Huibin Weng

Implications of Geometric Cohort Depreciation for Service-Life Distributions

This paper decomposes cohort-level Geometric depreciation into a weighted average of individual non-Geometric forms. The individual forms are general enough to represent actual individual depreciation patterns adequately, and the weights on individuals resemble Gamma service-life densities under… Read more
By Brian Sliker

Improving the Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: a Posterior Simulation Approach

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the standard for establishing efficacy and tolerability of treatments. However, the statistical evaluation of treatment effects in RCTs has remained largely unchanged for several decades. A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing for RCTs that… Read more

By Jeffrey A. Mills, Gary Cornwall, Beau A. Sauley, Jeffrey R. Strawn

Aggregate Effects and Measuring Regional Dynamics

Empirical models of regional adjustment often control for aggregate effects when estimating the impact of regional shocks. It is, however, difficult to filter out the effects of aggregate shocks— such as national recessions— because the incidence of these shocks varies across space and time. We… Read more
By Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, Kyle K. Hood

Strategic movement of intellectual property within U.S. multinational enterprises

Strategic behavior by U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs) to shift profits between countries to reduce their worldwide tax burden has been well studied. Much of the existing research has focused on the use of debt payments and intrafirm intellectual property licensing agreements to explain why… Read more

By Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Derrick Jenniges, Sarah Stutzman, Yiran Xin

Modeling and Forecasting Income Inequality in the United States

Recently, an idea has emerged that “the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer”. Using tax data from Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2017) (updated in the World Wealth& Income Database) and internal microdata from the Current Population Survey (1975-2015),this paper models… Read more

By Marina Gindelsky

Structural Estimates of Depreciation from Wholesale Auctions of Used Ford Windstar Vans

This paper estimates the depreciation of over twenty varieties of Ford Windstar passenger vans, using several hundred thousand observations from a deep collection of wholesale auction transactions. The data permit the estimation of individual vehicle ages apart from differences between resale-… Read more

By Brian Sliker

Backcasting the BEA/BLS Integrated Industry-level Production Account and the Sources of U.S. Economic Growth between 1987 and 2016

By Corby Garner, Justin Harper, Thomas Howells, Mathew Russell, Jon D. Samuels

Assessing the Automated Imputation of Missing and Erroneous Survey Data: A Simulation-Based Approach

Presented at the 2018 Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM) Research and Policy Conference

By Larkin Terrie

Defining and Measuring the Digital Economy

This paper, made possible by support from the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), describes the work of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to develop estimates towards the construction of a new digital economy satellite account. These… Read more

By Kevin Barefoot, Dave Curtis, William A. Jolliff, Jessica R. Nicholson, Robert Omohundro