 |
The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire release is available in PDF format.
Many of the tables in our news releases are very wide. Printing tips are available.
 |
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, APRIL 25, 2003
Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 BEA 03-13
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2003 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2003,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real
GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are
incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The first-quarter
"preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 29, 2003.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were personal consumption
expenditures, residential fixed investment, and government spending. The contributions of these
components were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, from
equipment and software, and from exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
decreased.
BOX
As announced in the November 2002 issue of the Survey of Current Business, the Bureau of
Economic Analysis plans to release the results of its 12th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the
national income and product accounts (NIPA's) on December 10, 2003. The annual revision of the
NIPA's that would normally take place this summer will instead be combined with the upcoming
comprehensive revision. Beginning with the June 2003 issue of the Survey, a series of articles will be
presented that discuss the revision.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (1996)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
The small acceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in
imports that was partly offset by downturns in equipment and software and in private inventory
investment and a deceleration in government spending.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the fourth. About 0.3 percentage point of
the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for by the pay raise for federal civilian and military
personnel, which is treated as an increase in the price of employee services purchased by the federal
government.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth. Durable goods purchases decreased 1.1 percent, compared with
a decrease of 8.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 5.1
percent. Services expenditures increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 4.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 3.4 percent, compared with a
decrease of 9.9 percent. Equipment and software decreased 4.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.2
percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 12.0 percent, compared with an increase of 9.4
percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with a
decrease of 5.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services decreased 7.9 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 7.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.6 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 11.0 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased
1.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.0 percent. Nondefense increased 10.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 11.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.2 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.48 percentage point from the first-quarter
change in real GDP, after adding 0.28 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $12.8 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $25.8 billion in the fourth
quarter and $18.8 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.1
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the
fourth.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $87.9 billion (3.9 percent) in the first quarter, compared
with an increase of $81.0 billion (3.7 percent) in the fourth. Personal tax and nontax payments increased
$11.4 billion (4.2 percent), in contrast to a decrease of $2.2 billion (0.8 percent).
Current-dollar disposable personal income increased $76.4 billion (3.9 percent) in the first quarter,
compared with an increase of $83.3 billion (4.3 percent) in the fourth. Real disposable personal income
increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Personal outlays increased $81.4 billion (4.3 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of $57.7 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $297.5 billion in the first quarter, compared with $302.5 billion in the fourth.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 3.8
percent in the fourth quarter to 3.7 percent in the first.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
4.2 percent, or $108.9 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $10,697.7 billion. In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.2 percent, or $82.6 billion.
BOX
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of
Current Business, "Business Situation."
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- May 29, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2003 (Preliminary)
Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2003
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source
agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of
the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The
"latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar
year and of the 2 preceding years. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year
intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more
accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of
new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the
different vintages of the estimates. These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For
example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in
the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point.
Thus, based on past history, the first-quarter change in real GDP now
estimated at 1.6 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below
1.0 percent or above 2.5 percent in the next two releases.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average without Range
compared regard to sign Two-thirds Nine-tenths
of revisions of revisions
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.6 -0.5 to 0.8 -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final........... .7 - .7 to 1.0 -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .6 to .7
Advance to latest.......... 1.3 - .6 to 2.0 -1.8 to 3.6
Preliminary to latest...... 1.2 -1.0 to 1.6 -1.5 to 3.0
Final to latest............ 1.2 -0.9 to 1.8 -1.6 to 2.9
Real GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.2
Advance to final........... .6 - .6 to .9 -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .5 to .6
Advance to latest.......... 1.4 -1.1 to 1.9 -1.5 to 3.2
Preliminary to latest...... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.9 -1.7 to 2.8
Final to latest........... 1.4 -1.1 to 2.1 -1.7 to 3.0
NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 2001 for the first three comparisons in each group and on the period from
1978 through 1999 for the last three comparisons in each group.
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures... 4.4 2.5 3.1 5.7 4.6 5.0 5.3 3.0 3.8 2.1 2.4 1.4 1.5 6.0 3.1 1.8 4.2 1.7 1.4
Durable goods..................... 8.2 6.0 7.3 14.4 10.3 10.1 17.8 -3.7 8.1 -5.3 11.5 5.3 4.6 33.6 -6.3 2.0 22.8 -8.2 -1.1
Nondurable goods.................. 3.9 2.0 3.2 4.8 2.5 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 -.3 1.3 3.6 7.9 -.1 1.0 5.1 4.2
Services.......................... 3.8 2.0 2.2 4.4 4.5 2.8 4.4 3.6 3.9 3.3 .6 1.5 .9 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 .5
Gross private domestic investment... 6.2 -10.7 1.0 -4.7 11.0 13.7 2.3 17.3 -6.0 -3.4 -19.7 -17.6 -5.2 -17.3 18.2 7.9 3.6 6.3 -2.5
Fixed investment.................. 6.1 -3.8 -3.1 7.1 5.9 2.9 13.3 6.7 .2 -2.4 -2.2 -11.1 -4.3 -8.9 -.5 -1.0 -.3 4.4 .5
Nonresidential.................. 7.8 -5.2 -5.7 7.9 7.7 3.0 15.0 10.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.4 -14.5 -6.0 -10.9 -5.8 -2.4 -.8 2.3 -4.2
Structures.................... 6.5 -1.7 -16.4 -5.1 -6.3 6.1 13.8 8.2 12.1 3.6 -3.1 -8.4 2.9 -30.1 -14.2 -17.6 -21.4 -9.9 -3.4
Equipment and software........ 8.2 -6.4 -1.7 12.5 12.5 2.1 15.5 10.9 .9 -5.4 -6.3 -16.7 -9.2 -2.5 -2.7 3.3 6.7 6.2 -4.4
Residential..................... 1.1 .3 3.9 4.9 .9 2.7 8.3 -3.0 -9.3 .0 8.2 -.5 .4 -3.5 14.2 2.7 1.1 9.4 12.0
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 9.7 -5.4 -1.6 4.3 10.6 12.6 7.7 14.6 11.6 -4.0 -6.0 -12.4 -17.3 -9.6 3.5 14.3 4.6 -5.8 -3.2
Goods........................... 11.3 -5.9 -3.6 4.6 13.2 15.3 6.7 16.1 19.5 -7.1 -6.1 -16.1 -18.6 -7.9 -3.4 15.9 4.1 -11.5 -2.5
Services........................ 6.0 -4.0 3.2 3.4 4.7 6.4 10.2 11.2 -5.9 4.4 -6.0 -2.5 -13.9 -13.8 21.7 10.7 5.9 8.0 -4.6
Imports........................... 13.2 -2.9 3.7 15.4 14.5 9.4 14.7 18.6 13.8 -1.6 -7.9 -6.8 -11.8 -5.3 8.5 22.2 3.3 7.4 -7.9
Goods........................... 13.5 -3.3 3.9 17.1 15.4 9.8 13.7 20.3 13.6 -1.8 -9.2 -9.4 -9.6 -3.3 3.7 27.9 3.4 6.2 -8.2
Services........................ 11.6 -.5 2.1 6.8 9.7 7.1 20.6 9.6 15.1 -.5 .3 8.5 -23.2 -16.5 35.7 -2.1 3.1 13.0 -6.7
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.7 3.7 4.4 2.9 5.3 7.1 -1.2 4.6 -1.0 2.9 5.7 5.6 -1.1 10.5 5.6 1.4 2.9 4.6 .9
Federal........................... 1.3 4.8 7.5 2.6 7.4 9.9 -13.2 16.0 -7.2 2.0 9.5 6.0 1.2 13.5 7.4 7.5 4.3 11.0 2.6
National defense................ -.1 5.0 9.3 -.2 14.0 10.0 -19.9 15.0 -6.1 4.7 8.3 2.7 4.6 14.3 11.6 7.8 6.9 11.0 -1.5
Nondefense...................... 3.6 4.5 4.3 7.9 -3.6 9.7 .3 17.9 -9.2 -2.6 11.8 12.0 -4.5 12.1 .4 6.9 -.3 11.1 10.5
State and local................... 3.5 3.1 2.8 3.0 4.2 5.6 5.6 -.8 2.4 3.3 3.8 5.4 -2.3 8.9 4.6 -1.7 2.2 1.2 -.1
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 3.7 1.5 1.8 4.1 4.3 5.2 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.3 2.8 -.4 -.2 4.2 2.4 -.1 3.4 1.1 2.1
Gross domestic purchases.......... 4.4 .4 3.0 3.3 5.8 6.8 3.6 5.7 1.2 1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -.1 2.9 5.6 2.6 3.9 2.9 .7
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 4.3 1.6 2.4 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 .0 .1 4.3 3.0 1.3 3.3 2.6 1.2
Gross national product (GNP)...... 3.7 .2 2.1 2.1 4.8 7.6 2.2 5.1 .2 1.6 -1.4 -.8 -1.1 3.7 3.7 .4 4.4 1.4 .....
Disposable personal income........ 4.8 1.8 4.3 .8 1.5 4.8 8.4 4.8 4.3 1.8 -.1 -.6 10.5 -7.6 14.5 3.9 1.8 2.4 1.1
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 3.2 4.2
Final sales of domestic product. 5.9 3.9 3.0 5.7 5.6 7.0 7.6 5.5 3.4 3.4 6.6 2.1 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.2 4.5 2.9 4.8
Gross domestic purchases........ 7.0 2.4 4.2 5.5 7.8 9.1 7.4 8.0 3.4 3.4 2.1 .6 -.2 3.4 6.9 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.4
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 7.0 3.6 3.6 7.6 6.9 7.3 9.3 6.2 4.6 3.6 5.5 1.7 -.1 4.8 4.2 3.6 4.6 4.4 4.9
GNP............................. 5.9 2.6 3.3 3.7 6.1 9.4 5.3 7.5 1.9 3.7 2.2 1.7 1.1 3.2 5.1 1.6 5.5 3.3 .....
Disposable personal income...... 7.4 3.8 5.7 3.1 3.7 7.3 12.2 7.2 6.4 4.0 3.2 1.2 10.4 -6.9 15.8 6.7 3.5 4.3 3.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.6
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.94 1.67 2.15 3.72 3.14 3.45 3.54 2.11 2.54 1.37 1.53 .92 .97 4.05 2.22 1.22 2.93 1.19 .97
Durable goods................... .65 .48 .59 1.09 .81 .81 1.36 -.30 .63 -.44 .87 .42 .36 2.45 -.55 .16 1.74 -.72 -.09
Nondurable goods................ .77 .39 .64 .93 .51 1.48 .45 .99 .40 .52 .45 -.07 .25 .73 1.57 -.02 .22 1.01 .84
Services........................ 1.51 .80 .92 1.70 1.81 1.16 1.73 1.43 1.51 1.29 .21 .57 .35 .87 1.20 1.08 .97 .90 .22
Gross private domestic investment. 1.08 -1.90 .15 -.86 1.85 2.32 .39 2.92 -1.09 -.55 -3.65 -3.09 -.81 -2.88 2.53 1.16 .55 .93 -.39
Fixed investment................ 1.03 -.65 -.50 1.18 1.01 .53 2.15 1.15 .04 -.41 -.38 -1.95 -.72 -1.49 -.07 -.15 -.03 .65 .08
Nonresidential................ .98 -.66 -.68 .97 .97 .41 1.80 1.28 .46 -.41 -.71 -1.93 -.73 -1.33 -.66 -.27 -.08 .24 -.45
Structures.................. .20 -.05 -.52 -.17 -.20 .18 .40 .25 .37 .12 -.10 -.29 .10 -1.12 -.44 -.53 -.62 -.25 -.08
Equipment and software...... .78 -.61 -.15 1.14 1.17 .22 1.41 1.03 .09 -.53 -.61 -1.64 -.83 -.21 -.22 .26 .53 .49 -.37
Residential................... .05 .01 .18 .21 .04 .12 .35 -.13 -.42 .00 .34 -.02 .02 -.16 .60 .12 .05 .41 .53
Change in private inventories... .06 -1.24 .65 -2.04 .84 1.80 -1.77 1.77 -1.12 -.14 -3.27 -1.14 -.09 -1.39 2.60 1.31 .58 .28 -.48
Net exports of goods and services. -.75 -.18 -.67 -1.41 -.75 .04 -1.17 -1.00 -.72 -.23 .53 -.42 -.24 -.28 -.75 -1.40 -.01 -1.59 .86
Exports......................... 1.04 -.59 -.17 .43 1.08 1.31 .82 1.53 1.25 -.46 -.69 -1.42 -1.94 -.99 .33 1.29 .45 -.59 -.31
Goods......................... .85 -.47 -.26 .33 .94 1.11 .51 1.18 1.44 -.60 -.49 -1.34 -1.49 -.56 -.23 .99 .28 -.82 -.17
Services...................... .19 -.13 .09 .10 .14 .20 .31 .35 -.19 .14 -.20 -.08 -.45 -.42 .56 .30 .17 .23 -.14
Imports......................... -1.79 .42 -.50 -1.84 -1.83 -1.27 -1.99 -2.54 -1.97 .23 1.22 1.00 1.70 .70 -1.08 -2.69 -.47 -1.00 1.17
Goods......................... -1.54 .40 -.43 -1.72 -1.64 -1.12 -1.56 -2.32 -1.64 .22 1.21 1.18 1.17 .37 -.40 -2.74 -.40 -.71 1.00
Services...................... -.24 .01 -.07 -.12 -.19 -.15 -.43 -.21 -.32 .01 .01 -.18 .53 .33 -.68 .05 -.07 -.30 .17
Government consumption
expenditures and gross investment .49 .65 .81 .50 .93 1.26 -.20 .83 -.18 .51 .99 1.00 -.21 1.85 1.04 .27 .56 .85 .17
Federal......................... .08 .29 .47 .15 .44 .60 -.85 .91 -.45 .12 .54 .36 .07 .80 .47 .47 .29 .70 .18
National defense.............. .00 .19 .37 -.01 .52 .39 -.86 .54 -.24 .17 .30 .10 .18 .54 .46 .32 .29 .46 -.07
Nondefense.................... .08 .10 .10 .16 -.08 .21 .01 .37 -.21 -.06 .24 .25 -.11 .26 .01 .16 -.01 .25 .24
State and local................. .41 .36 .34 .34 .49 .67 .65 -.08 .28 .39 .45 .64 -.28 1.05 .56 -.21 .27 .15 -.01
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,697.7 9,439.9 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,556.0 225.4 32.6 37.8
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,303.7 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,425.4 7,502.8 6,576.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,637.9 6,660.5 198.8 28.0 22.6
Durable goods................... 871.9 859.0 856.9 897.8 873.9 863.2 999.9 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,010.6 1,007.7 68.0 -21.8 -2.9
Motor vehicles and parts...... 376.1 365.8 362.1 400.7 375.9 365.9 382.4 370.0 369.1 407.6 382.8 374.3 20.5 -24.8 -8.5
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 318.7 317.1 319.1 319.2 319.4 317.4 438.1 428.2 435.2 441.4 447.5 451.2 40.1 6.1 3.7
Other......................... 177.1 176.1 175.8 177.9 178.6 179.9 185.8 184.2 184.1 187.0 188.1 191.5 10.5 1.1 3.4
Nondurable goods................ 2,115.0 2,085.1 2,108.2 2,116.9 2,150.0 2,196.6 1,929.5 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,950.0 1,969.9 59.7 24.2 19.9
Food.......................... 1,029.4 1,025.0 1,023.9 1,024.8 1,043.9 1,058.6 902.3 901.4 899.2 897.9 910.7 919.7 15.3 12.8 9.0
Clothing and shoes............ 324.3 325.8 323.9 321.0 326.6 326.6 357.0 355.8 355.1 355.3 361.8 366.4 19.3 6.5 4.6
Gasoline, fuel oil, and
other energy goods........... 173.5 156.2 174.7 178.2 184.7 210.4 157.5 157.2 156.5 157.5 158.9 158.7 6.3 1.4 -.2
Gasoline and oil............ 158.5 142.3 160.7 163.5 167.4 191.2 145.1 145.1 144.7 145.4 145.1 146.1 6.3 -.3 1.0
Fuel oil and coal........... 15.0 13.9 14.0 14.7 17.3 19.2 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.4 14.0 12.9 .1 1.6 -1.1
Other......................... 587.8 578.0 585.6 592.9 594.8 601.1 515.8 510.1 513.1 518.0 521.9 528.9 20.3 3.9 7.0
Services........................ 4,316.8 4,230.1 4,289.5 4,346.0 4,401.5 4,442.9 3,675.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,707.0 3,711.8 80.7 20.0 4.8
Housing....................... 1,071.5 1,051.7 1,066.0 1,078.0 1,090.1 1,102.0 880.1 874.0 878.5 882.1 885.8 890.0 14.1 3.7 4.2
Household operation........... 405.2 399.2 400.9 406.3 414.2 419.0 384.7 381.3 382.9 384.7 389.9 385.4 2.1 5.2 -4.5
Electricity and gas......... 148.2 143.9 144.9 147.4 156.5 162.1 136.4 133.5 133.6 135.7 142.8 140.7 1.9 7.1 -2.1
Other household operation... 257.0 255.4 256.1 258.9 257.7 256.9 248.4 248.0 249.5 249.1 247.0 244.6 .2 -2.1 -2.4
Transportation................ 275.8 273.3 275.6 276.1 278.3 278.2 250.3 250.9 250.3 249.8 250.1 250.3 -.8 .3 .2
Medical care.................. 1,148.5 1,119.0 1,139.3 1,158.8 1,176.9 1,192.6 978.6 963.4 974.7 984.4 992.0 1,000.9 40.3 7.6 8.9
Recreation.................... 285.1 279.0 283.8 285.9 291.8 292.6 237.5 235.6 237.1 237.1 240.3 238.8 4.3 3.2 -1.5
Other......................... 1,130.7 1,107.8 1,123.8 1,140.9 1,150.2 1,158.5 942.7 935.3 941.0 947.0 947.5 944.5 20.0 .5 -3.0
Gross private domestic investment. 1,593.2 1,559.4 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,628.1 1,626.9 1,589.6 1,554.0 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,622.4 1,612.1 15.0 24.4 -10.3
Fixed investment................ 1,589.3 1,589.4 1,584.6 1,579.7 1,603.6 1,616.9 1,577.3 1,576.4 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,588.5 1,590.6 -50.1 16.9 2.1
Nonresidential................ 1,117.4 1,126.8 1,115.8 1,109.8 1,117.1 1,107.1 1,183.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,172.7 -71.7 6.6 -12.6
Structures.................. 269.3 288.3 275.2 259.4 254.2 254.5 226.4 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.6 210.7 -44.5 -5.6 -1.9
Nonresidential buildings,
including farm........... 179.2 192.4 182.3 171.1 170.9 169.1 145.6 157.1 148.2 139.1 137.8 134.8 -33.1 -1.3 -3.0
Utilities................. 53.1 56.3 53.9 51.5 50.6 51.0 47.3 50.8 48.4 45.6 44.6 44.6 -3.0 -1.0 .0
Mining exploration,
shafts, and wells........ 30.6 32.3 31.7 31.0 27.3 29.3 29.2 30.2 30.3 29.9 26.5 28.4 -4.8 -3.4 1.9
Other structures.......... 6.4 7.3 7.3 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.5 6.3 6.3 5.0 4.6 4.4 -3.8 -.4 -.2
Equipment and software...... 848.1 838.5 840.7 850.4 863.0 852.6 971.1 953.7 961.4 977.2 992.1 980.9 -17.1 14.9 -11.2
Information processing
equipment and software... 399.7 388.7 397.1 406.9 406.3 414.6 563.1 540.4 557.0 575.2 579.7 594.7 14.6 4.5 15.0
Computers and
peripheral equipment... 74.2 71.9 72.8 76.8 75.4 77.2 283.7 262.1 271.6 297.6 303.2 322.5 43.8 5.6 19.3
Software................ 182.8 177.2 181.0 186.3 186.7 188.0 185.7 179.0 184.3 189.4 190.3 190.9 3.7 .9 .6
Other................... 142.7 139.6 143.3 143.8 144.2 149.5 158.2 154.1 158.5 159.7 160.7 166.4 -5.7 1.0 5.7
Industrial equipment...... 152.2 153.4 150.5 153.3 151.5 150.1 146.9 148.3 145.6 147.9 145.9 144.1 -6.9 -2.0 -1.8
Transportation equipment.. 148.9 154.1 145.2 141.7 154.5 139.5 147.0 151.5 143.4 141.7 151.4 136.2 -16.6 9.7 -15.2
Other..................... 147.4 142.3 148.0 148.5 150.8 148.4 139.3 134.6 140.1 140.3 142.3 139.6 -1.4 2.0 -2.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential................... 471.9 462.6 468.7 469.9 486.5 509.8 388.2 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 407.3 14.7 8.8 11.4
Structures.................. 462.4 453.0 459.2 460.4 476.9 500.1 378.5 373.9 376.4 377.4 386.1 397.3 14.5 8.7 11.2
Single family............. 247.0 241.1 244.3 245.3 257.4 274.2 200.5 197.2 198.4 199.8 206.5 215.1 7.9 6.7 8.6
Multifamily............... 33.6 34.2 34.2 33.4 32.4 37.0 26.3 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.1 28.0 1.9 -1.1 2.9
Other..................... 181.8 177.7 180.7 181.7 187.1 188.9 151.6 149.6 151.0 151.3 154.4 154.0 4.7 3.1 -.4
Equipment................... 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.0 .2 .1 .2
Change in private inventories... 3.9 -29.9 3.4 17.6 24.5 10.0 5.2 -28.9 4.9 18.8 25.8 12.8 66.6 7.0 -13.0
Farm.......................... .5 5.3 .4 -2.3 -1.5 1.4 1.1 6.4 .8 -2.2 -.8 2.3 -.9 1.4 3.1
Construction, mining,
and utilities................ -.9 1.6 -1.1 -2.5 -1.7 -4.8 -.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -1.1 -3.1 -7.1 1.2 -2.0
Manufacturing................. -11.3 -31.1 -14.2 -2.7 2.8 -1.4 -11.5 -31.9 -14.1 -2.6 2.8 -1.5 24.7 5.4 -4.3
Wholesale trade............... -3.7 -19.5 -9.0 7.1 6.6 -3.5 -3.4 -19.8 -8.7 7.9 7.0 -2.9 13.1 -.9 -9.9
Retail trade.................. 16.8 13.8 22.2 15.6 15.7 17.3 16.6 13.8 22.0 15.5 15.2 17.1 36.9 -.3 1.9
Other industries.............. 2.5 .0 5.1 2.3 2.5 1.1 2.5 .0 5.0 2.3 2.5 1.2 -.1 .2 -1.3
Net exports of goods and services. -423.6 -360.1 -425.6 -432.9 -476.0 -485.7 -488.5 -446.6 -487.4 -488.0 -532.2 -508.2 -72.6 -44.2 24.0
Exports......................... 1,014.9 977.5 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,025.4 1,026.0 1,058.8 1,030.6 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,061.6 1,053.0 -17.3 -16.1 -8.6
Goods......................... 703.6 679.8 709.4 722.6 702.6 703.4 756.9 738.1 765.8 773.5 750.3 745.5 -28.3 -23.2 -4.8
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.5 49.7 48.6 49.5 50.3 52.9 60.9 63.4 61.3 59.4 59.6 62.1 -1.4 .2 2.5
Industrial supplies and
materials.................. 153.7 144.9 155.6 156.3 158.0 163.7 162.8 158.5 165.8 163.1 163.9 164.4 .6 .8 .5
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 291.3 284.4 294.1 301.7 285.0 279.7 324.8 316.0 327.7 336.8 318.6 313.6 -31.0 -18.2 -5.0
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 78.5 73.8 80.4 82.5 77.4 77.8 76.1 71.7 78.1 79.9 74.7 75.1 2.7 -5.2 .4
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 84.5 82.2 84.2 86.0 85.6 85.5 84.6 82.3 84.5 86.0 85.6 85.4 -3.3 -.4 -.2
Other....................... 46.0 44.8 46.4 46.7 46.1 43.8 47.3 46.6 47.9 47.7 47.0 44.2 2.8 -.7 -2.8
Services...................... 311.3 297.7 308.8 316.0 322.8 322.6 301.5 292.2 299.7 304.0 310.0 306.3 9.5 6.0 -3.7
Imports......................... 1,438.5 1,337.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,501.4 1,511.7 1,547.4 1,477.1 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,593.8 1,561.3 55.4 28.1 -32.5
Goods......................... 1,192.1 1,102.3 1,202.9 1,220.9 1,242.5 1,250.8 1,320.1 1,250.0 1,329.2 1,340.3 1,360.8 1,332.1 49.6 20.5 -28.7
Foods, feeds, and beverages. 49.8 47.5 49.4 50.4 52.0 53.7 54.6 53.2 54.6 55.0 55.7 56.9 2.9 .7 1.2
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products..... 160.2 149.5 159.0 163.5 168.7 172.6 166.7 160.8 165.1 169.1 171.9 165.0 5.8 2.8 -6.9
Petroleum and products...... 103.4 76.7 108.1 110.7 117.9 133.6 86.7 82.3 88.6 85.5 90.2 85.5 -2.5 4.7 -4.7
Capital goods, except
automotive................. 284.0 277.4 288.4 285.3 284.9 287.3 393.2 382.1 398.2 394.9 397.6 400.8 -6.8 2.7 3.2
Automotive vehicles,
engines, and parts......... 204.0 190.4 207.5 210.0 208.1 202.7 200.1 187.3 203.8 205.9 203.4 198.4 13.4 -2.5 -5.0
Consumer goods, except
automotive................. 307.6 285.4 307.2 315.0 322.9 324.0 326.6 302.4 326.4 334.4 343.2 344.2 27.7 8.8 1.0
Other....................... 83.2 75.4 83.2 86.0 88.0 76.9 83.8 76.4 84.0 86.6 88.1 76.1 4.0 1.5 -12.0
Services...................... 246.4 235.2 240.8 250.6 258.9 260.9 227.2 225.5 224.3 226.0 233.0 229.0 4.8 7.0 -4.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (1996) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 2002 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption
expenditures and
gross investment................. 1,972.9 1,939.5 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,011.3 2,053.6 1,712.8 1,697.3 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,735.0 1,738.8 72.4 19.4 3.8
Federal......................... 693.7 672.0 688.2 697.7 716.9 738.5 613.3 597.8 608.7 615.1 631.4 635.5 42.7 16.3 4.1
National defense.............. 447.4 431.7 442.1 451.2 464.7 473.1 400.0 388.5 395.8 402.5 413.2 411.6 34.0 10.7 -1.6
Consumption expenditures.... 386.6 372.1 382.5 388.9 403.2 409.9 337.0 326.7 333.9 338.0 349.4 346.6 28.1 11.4 -2.8
Gross investment............ 60.8 59.7 59.6 62.4 61.5 63.2 63.3 62.2 62.2 65.0 63.9 65.4 6.0 -1.1 1.5
Nondefense.................... 246.3 240.3 246.1 246.5 252.2 265.4 213.3 209.3 212.9 212.7 218.3 223.9 8.9 5.6 5.6
Consumption expenditures.... 199.9 194.2 198.6 200.9 205.8 218.5 167.8 164.3 166.5 167.9 172.5 177.7 6.7 4.6 5.2
Gross investment............ 46.4 46.1 47.5 45.5 46.5 46.9 45.9 45.4 47.0 45.1 46.0 46.2 2.3 .9 .2
State and local................. 1,279.2 1,267.5 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,294.4 1,315.2 1,099.7 1,099.3 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,104.0 1,103.8 30.3 3.4 -.2
Consumption expenditures.... 1,034.5 1,017.7 1,030.6 1,039.6 1,050.1 1,070.4 881.1 875.9 879.4 883.0 886.3 887.5 24.3 3.3 1.2
Gross investment............ 244.7 249.7 241.1 243.8 244.2 244.8 218.6 223.7 215.3 217.6 217.7 216.2 5.8 .1 -1.5
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -87.2 -71.2 -75.8 -102.5 -100.0 -111.7 -44.3 2.5 -11.7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,442.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,564.3 10,687.6 9,424.4 9,379.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,483.1 9,532.1 166.0 25.9 49.0
Gross domestic purchases........ 10,869.9 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,064.8 11,183.3 9,889.8 9,778.2 9,840.8 9,934.7 10,005.5 10,023.0 289.1 70.8 17.5
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 10,866.0 10,703.1 10,799.0 10,921.5 11,040.3 11,173.3 9,874.1 9,794.4 9,826.0 9,906.1 9,970.1 9,998.8 229.2 64.0 28.7
Gross domestic product.......... 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,697.7 9,439.9 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,556.0 225.4 32.6 37.8
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... 278.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 284.2 ..... 253.3 242.8 251.8 261.3 257.5 ..... -38.7 -3.8 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... 287.6 262.8 296.1 298.2 293.4 ..... 260.3 239.2 268.2 269.5 264.2 ..... -8.9 -5.3 .....
Equals: Gross national product.. 10,436.7 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 ..... 9,433.5 9,367.5 9,376.7 9,477.9 9,512.1 ..... 196.2 34.2 .....
Net domestic product............ 9,052.8 8,949.6 8,987.0 9,101.0 9,173.4 9,273.6 8,055.8 8,017.7 8,017.0 8,085.5 8,103.0 8,127.4 150.4 17.5 24.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.8
Durable goods..................... -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -.8 -2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 -4.2 -2.9 -1.9 -2.2 -3.7
Nondurable goods.................. 3.8 1.5 .4 4.6 3.4 3.7 5.3 3.0 2.8 1.8 1.8 2.9 -1.4 -3.5 .2 4.6 .6 1.2 4.6
Services.......................... 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.6 2.5 2.6 3.2 5.1 2.3 1.1 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3
Gross private domestic investment... 1.0 1.2 -.5 -.1 -.5 .5 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.1 -.4 -.2 -1.5 -.4 -1.1 1.7 2.3
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 1.2 -.4 .0 -.4 .5 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.2 -.2 -.1 -1.5 -.2 -.9 1.8 2.8
Nonresidential.................. .1 .2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -.5 .7 .4 1.3 .5 .4 .1 -1.1 -1.6 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3 .4 .7
Structures.................... 4.0 5.0 -.7 1.8 2.2 3.2 5.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 10.5 4.2 -.3 -1.6 -3.6 .7 .4 2.3 4.2
Equipment and software........ -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 -1.6 -.7 -.8 .2 -1.1 -2.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -.2 -.3
Residential..................... 4.4 4.1 2.1 4.5 3.3 3.2 7.0 3.9 3.1 3.7 5.6 4.5 2.5 3.7 .0 2.6 .0 5.0 7.6
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... 1.4 -.8 -.2 .4 .7 1.7 2.0 2.0 .8 .1 -.8 -1.7 -1.9 -3.8 -.8 3.0 3.5 .9 3.5
Goods........................... 1.2 -.7 -.5 -.3 .7 2.2 1.3 1.6 .4 .4 -.2 -1.5 -2.4 -3.7 -1.1 2.3 3.4 .9 3.1
Services........................ 2.1 -1.0 .3 2.1 .8 .5 3.9 3.0 2.0 -.4 -2.3 -2.1 -.6 -4.2 .0 4.6 3.7 .8 4.5
Imports........................... 4.5 -2.9 .3 4.9 5.8 5.5 6.6 1.1 4.6 .9 -2.5 -5.9 -17.0 4.7 -1.6 11.1 4.4 .9 11.6
Goods........................... 4.8 -2.9 -1.7 5.2 6.3 6.3 6.8 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.4 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.9 2.7 .9 11.8
Services........................ 3.3 -2.9 11.8 3.7 3.7 1.7 5.9 .7 4.8 1.1 3.8 -3.2 -57.7 167.5 1.1 12.2 13.6 .9 10.6
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 3.9 2.4 1.7 3.6 3.2 3.1 6.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 4.2 1.8 -.3 -.3 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.6 7.8
Federal........................... 3.0 1.7 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 8.1 .7 1.6 .1 4.6 1.5 .5 -.4 8.4 2.3 1.3 .3 9.8
National defense................ 3.0 1.6 2.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 7.5 .7 2.0 .6 4.0 1.1 .6 -1.1 7.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 9.1
Nondefense...................... 3.1 1.9 3.4 2.5 2.3 .9 9.3 .6 .9 -.7 5.6 2.2 .4 .7 10.4 2.9 1.0 -1.2 10.9
State and local................... 4.3 2.7 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.9 5.5 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.1 1.9 -.8 -.3 1.1 3.1 1.5 2.2 6.7
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 3.1 2.4 1.7 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.6
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.6
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 1.7 -.1 .5 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 3.7
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 1.7 -.1 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.7 3.6
GNP............................. 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.8 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 1996=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index........ 117.64 117.94 120.82 119.84 120.21 121.41 121.82 122.31
Chain-type price index........... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.95
Implicit price deflator.......... 106.89 109.42 110.66 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.95
Personal consumption expenditures:
Chain-type quantity index................ 118.83 121.76 125.56 124.37 124.92 126.20 126.74 127.17
Chain-type price index................... 107.39 109.56 111.06 110.14 110.89 111.36 111.87 112.65
Durable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 142.58 151.16 162.19 158.30 159.08 167.47 163.92 163.46
Chain-type price index................. 91.46 89.70 87.19 88.00 87.36 86.94 86.46 85.64
Nondurable goods:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.50 118.79 122.58 122.07 122.03 122.35 123.88 125.15
Chain-type price index................. 107.59 109.17 109.61 108.52 109.75 109.92 110.25 111.51
Services:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 115.67 117.98 120.63 119.54 120.32 121.01 121.66 121.82
Chain-type price index................. 110.85 114.32 117.44 116.15 117.00 117.88 118.74 119.70
Private fixed investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 139.52 134.20 130.06 129.99 129.68 129.60 130.99 131.16
Chain-type price index................... 100.00 101.16 100.76 100.82 100.76 100.52 100.95 101.65
Nonresidential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 147.23 139.55 131.57 132.13 131.32 131.05 131.79 130.38
Chain-type price index................. 95.59 95.73 94.43 94.82 94.48 94.17 94.25 94.42
Residential:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 118.88 119.22 123.92 122.44 123.25 123.59 126.39 130.03
Chain-type price index................. 114.40 119.09 121.57 120.61 121.40 121.38 122.88 125.15
Exports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 130.09 123.10 121.13 117.89 121.89 123.28 121.44 120.46
Chain-type price index................... 96.83 96.10 95.87 94.88 95.58 96.41 96.62 97.47
Imports of goods and services:
Chain-type quantity index................ 159.48 154.91 160.66 153.37 161.24 162.56 165.48 162.10
Chain-type price index................... 95.49 92.70 92.99 90.61 93.03 94.05 94.27 96.89
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment:
Chain-type quantity index................ 111.29 115.36 120.46 119.37 119.79 120.65 122.02 122.28
Chain-type price index................... 110.65 113.27 115.18 114.27 115.06 115.47 115.92 118.11
Federal:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 102.42 107.33 115.37 112.46 114.50 115.71 118.79 119.54
Chain-type price index................. 108.23 110.09 113.11 112.42 113.07 113.44 113.53 116.21
State and local:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 116.52 120.11 123.51 123.47 122.95 123.62 123.99 123.97
Chain-type price index................. 111.98 115.01 116.33 115.29 116.17 116.60 117.24 119.15
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.19 118.95 121.09 120.51 120.49 121.51 121.84 122.47
Chain-type price index................. 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.28 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.12
Implicit price deflator................ 107.02 109.55 110.80 110.27 110.62 110.91 111.40 112.12
Gross domestic purchases:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 121.00 121.50 125.15 123.74 124.53 125.72 126.62 126.84
Chain-type price index................. 106.58 108.65 109.90 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.58
Implicit price deflator................ 106.58 108.65 109.91 109.15 109.77 110.11 110.59 111.58
Final sales to domestic purchasers:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 120.56 122.52 125.43 124.42 124.82 125.84 126.65 127.02
Chain-type price index................. 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.75
Implicit price deflator................ 106.70 108.78 110.04 109.28 109.90 110.25 110.73 111.75
Gross national product:
Chain-type quantity index.............. 117.69 117.96 120.46 119.62 119.73 121.03 121.46 .....
Chain-type price index................. 106.86 109.39 110.63 110.11 110.45 110.73 111.22 .....
Implicit price deflator................ 106.86 109.38 110.63 110.11 110.45 110.73 111.22 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
[Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.4 4.2 3.5 1.8 -.5 3.0 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures...... 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.8 -.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.8 4.9 4.4 2.5 3.1
Durable goods........................ 1.7 5.8 2.1 -.9 -6.6 5.3 8.2 7.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 10.5 11.8 8.2 6.0 7.3
Nondurable goods..................... 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.4 -.4 1.9 2.9 3.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.1 4.7 3.9 2.0 3.2
Services............................. 4.3 4.1 2.8 2.8 1.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.3 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.0 2.2
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.5 2.7 3.7 -3.1 -8.6 8.5 8.7 13.2 3.0 9.0 12.1 11.8 6.6 6.2 -10.7 1.0
Fixed investment..................... .0 3.6 2.7 -1.8 -6.9 6.5 8.1 9.1 6.0 9.3 9.6 11.4 7.8 6.1 -3.8 -3.1
Nonresidential..................... -.1 5.4 5.5 .7 -4.9 3.4 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.0 12.2 12.5 8.1 7.8 -5.2 -5.7
Structures....................... -3.6 1.3 2.5 1.5 -11.0 -6.1 .8 .8 4.8 7.1 9.1 6.8 -1.3 6.5 -1.7 -16.4
Equipment and software........... 1.7 7.5 7.0 .4 -2.0 7.4 11.3 11.9 11.5 11.0 13.3 14.6 11.5 8.2 -6.4 -1.7
Residential........................ .2 -.5 -4.1 -8.6 -12.8 16.3 7.3 9.7 -3.6 7.4 2.0 8.0 6.7 1.1 .3 3.9
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 11.2 16.1 11.8 8.7 6.5 6.2 3.3 8.9 10.3 8.2 12.3 2.1 3.4 9.7 -5.4 -1.6
Goods.............................. 11.1 18.8 12.6 8.2 7.1 6.8 3.0 9.7 11.9 8.7 14.5 2.1 3.8 11.3 -5.9 -3.6
Services........................... 11.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 5.1 4.6 4.1 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.0 2.3 2.5 6.0 -4.0 3.2
Imports.............................. 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.8 -.5 6.6 9.1 12.0 8.2 8.6 13.7 11.8 10.9 13.2 -2.9 3.7
Goods.............................. 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.4 14.2 11.7 12.2 13.5 -3.3 3.9
Services........................... 12.6 2.7 2.8 7.6 -2.3 -4.0 4.7 5.8 4.1 4.8 10.9 11.9 4.2 11.6 -.5 2.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 1.2 2.8 3.3 1.2 .5 -.8 .1 .5 1.1 2.4 1.9 3.9 2.7 3.7 4.4
Federal.............................. 3.7 -1.8 1.3 2.0 -.3 -1.6 -3.9 -3.6 -2.7 -.9 -.4 -.8 2.3 1.3 4.8 7.5
National defense................... 4.7 -.8 -.8 .0 -1.1 -4.9 -5.4 -4.8 -3.7 -1.3 -2.6 -1.8 2.1 -.1 5.0 9.3
Nondefense......................... .5 -5.2 8.4 8.3 1.8 7.1 -.3 -1.0 -.5 .0 4.2 1.1 2.7 3.6 4.5 4.3
State and local...................... 2.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 2.3 2.0 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 4.0 3.4 4.7 3.5 3.1 2.8
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 3.0 4.3 3.3 2.0 -.2 2.8 2.6 3.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.7 1.5 1.8
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.1 3.2 2.9 1.4 -1.1 3.1 3.3 4.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 .4 3.0
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 2.7 3.4 2.7 1.6 -.9 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 3.7 4.3 5.3 5.2 4.3 1.6 2.4
Gross national product............... 3.3 4.2 3.5 1.9 -.5 3.0 2.6 3.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.4 3.7 .2 2.1
Real disposable personal income...... 2.1 4.4 2.6 2.2 .4 3.1 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 5.4 2.6 4.8 1.8 4.3
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.6 .8 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.2
GDP price index...................... 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.5 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.1
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.5 4.3 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.7 2.3
Durable goods........................ 11.7 13.3 10.0 13.1 8.4 7.8 3.8 2.4 4.7 3.8 13.2 8.4 7.5 11.9 1.9 3.3
Nondurable goods..................... 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.5
Services............................. 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.9
Gross private domestic investment...... 6.8 6.6 6.6 5.3 11.0 6.4 2.2 -3.8 -11.9 -11.7 -15.1 -6.5 .0 2.3 8.9 3.7
Fixed investment..................... 7.9 8.4 5.9 7.3 7.1 5.7 4.3 .5 -4.0 -5.1 -6.7 -6.3 -3.7 -2.7 .6 .9
Nonresidential..................... 7.8 9.4 6.6 8.3 8.9 7.8 6.2 1.1 -5.1 -7.4 -9.3 -9.4 -6.3 -5.1 -1.7 -1.3
Structures....................... -2.2 -3.1 -2.5 1.8 5.2 10.0 9.3 5.0 .8 -1.4 -10.6 -13.3 -15.6 -21.1 -15.9 -13.4
Equipment and software........... 11.3 13.8 9.7 10.5 10.1 7.2 5.2 -.2 -7.1 -9.5 -8.8 -8.0 -2.9 1.1 3.3 2.8
Residential........................ 8.2 5.6 4.0 4.1 2.1 -.6 -1.2 -1.2 -.6 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.4 6.7 6.2
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 2.5 5.7 4.9 8.8 11.4 11.6 7.3 3.7 -3.1 -10.1 -11.4 -9.3 -3.0 2.8 3.9 2.2
Goods.............................. 3.2 6.4 5.6 9.9 12.8 14.3 8.3 4.9 -3.3 -12.1 -12.3 -11.7 -4.3 1.8 .8 1.0
Services........................... .8 4.2 3.2 6.1 8.1 5.3 4.8 .7 -2.6 -4.7 -9.2 -3.1 .0 5.3 11.4 4.8
Imports.............................. 10.0 12.6 11.9 13.5 14.3 14.1 11.1 5.2 -1.0 -7.1 -8.0 -4.1 2.6 6.7 10.1 5.7
Goods.............................. 11.3 14.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 14.3 11.1 5.1 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.8 7.3 9.9 6.6
Services........................... 3.5 4.1 5.9 10.9 11.6 13.0 10.9 5.9 5.7 -4.5 -8.6 -1.4 -3.9 3.4 11.5 1.5
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.0 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.9 2.3 1.3 3.0 3.3 3.2 5.1 5.0 4.0 5.0 3.6 2.4
Federal.............................. .1 2.9 4.0 1.2 4.4 .7 -1.2 4.7 2.4 4.6 7.5 6.9 7.3 8.1 7.5 6.3
National defense................... -.3 1.7 4.4 .0 3.7 -1.3 -2.5 5.2 2.2 5.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.1 9.3 5.9
Nondefense......................... .8 5.2 3.4 3.4 5.7 4.2 1.1 3.9 2.6 3.9 7.6 4.7 3.5 4.7 4.4 6.9
State and local...................... 4.5 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.5 3.9 4.1 2.3 3.4 1.6 .4
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 .9 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.6
Gross domestic purchases............. 4.8 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.5 4.3 2.9 1.7 .1 -.3 .1 1.8 2.8 3.7 3.7 2.5
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 5.0 5.4 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.5 .9 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1
Gross national product............... 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 -.1 -.4 .1 1.4 1.7 3.0 2.5 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 5.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3 3.8 5.0 2.8 5.5 2.3
Gross domestic purchases price
index............................... 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 .8 .9 1.3 1.6 2.2
GDP price index...................... 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 .8 1.3 1.6
Personal consumption expenditures
price index......................... 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 .9 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,446.2 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,697.7
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world..................... 383.4 316.9 278.0 264.7 276.0 287.3 284.2 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world..................... 360.0 295.0 287.6 262.8 296.1 298.2 293.4 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 9,848.0 10,104.1 10,436.7 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,228.9 1,329.3 1,393.5 1,363.5 1,389.8 1,405.3 1,415.4 1,424.1
Less: Indirect business tax and
nontax liability.......................... 753.6 774.8 800.4 786.2 795.1 806.9 813.3 820.8
Less: Business transfer payments........... 43.7 42.5 44.1 43.8 43.9 44.4 44.3 44.7
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -128.5 -117.3 -116.7 -110.0 -165.0 -82.1 -109.6 .....
Plus: Subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises......... 34.1 47.3 32.5 37.0 35.1 29.1 29.0 28.2
Equals: National income.................... 7,984.4 8,122.0 8,347.9 8,268.5 8,328.0 8,349.9 8,445.3 .....
Compensation of employees................ 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,977.4 5,908.4 5,963.9 5,988.4 6,048.8 6,119.2
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,003.7 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,052.4 5,106.3
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 887.1 924.3 973.7 950.7 966.6 981.0 996.4 1,012.8
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6 785.8
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 141.3 153.5 144.1 130.6 126.1
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 788.1 731.6 787.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 796.1 .....
Net interest............................. 611.5 649.8 684.2 672.8 678.1 687.6 698.3 696.6
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 9,953.1 10,199.4 10,562.9 10,423.1 10,541.8 10,588.3 10,698.4 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,929.1 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,958.9 9,039.9 9,127.8
Wage and salary disbursements............ 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,003.7 4,957.8 4,997.3 5,007.4 5,052.4 5,104.9
Other labor income....................... 544.2 570.4 610.6 590.8 604.1 617.5 630.2 639.1
Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments................. 714.8 727.9 756.5 748.4 747.5 758.7 771.6 785.8
Farm................................... 22.6 19.0 12.9 21.7 7.5 10.7 11.7 14.4
Nonfarm................................ 692.2 708.8 743.7 726.7 740.0 748.0 759.9 771.4
Rental income of persons with
capital consumption adjustment.......... 146.6 137.9 142.4 141.3 153.5 144.1 130.6 126.1
Personal dividend income................. 375.7 409.2 433.8 423.7 430.3 437.3 443.8 451.2
Personal interest income................. 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,078.5 1,069.9 1,082.3 1,080.7 1,080.9 1,074.5
Transfer payments to persons............. 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,252.0 1,282.6 1,298.4 1,319.1 1,341.4
Less: Personal contributions for
social insurance........................ 358.4 372.3 384.5 380.5 383.6 385.3 388.7 395.2
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..... 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,113.6 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,099.0 1,096.8 1,108.2
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,815.5 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,859.9 7,943.2 8,019.6
Less: Personal outlays..................... 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,524.5 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,640.7 7,722.1
Equals: Personal saving.................... 201.5 169.7 291.0 270.4 314.3 276.9 302.5 297.5
Addenda:
Disposable personal income,
billions of chained (1996) dollars\2\... 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,036.8 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,058.1 7,100.8 7,119.4
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 2.8 2.3 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2001 2002 II 99 III 99 IV 99 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP and related aggregates:
GDP............................... 3.8 .3 2.4 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 -.6 -1.6 -.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.6
Goods............................. 4.7 -2.3 3.3 1.5 8.2 12.0 1.4 6.9 -.5 -2.7 -4.4 -5.7 -1.5 4.3 8.3 .4 9.0 -1.6 2.2
Services.......................... 3.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 4.3 3.9 2.0 5.0 1.6 3.7 .9 1.2 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 2.5 3.1 .8
Structures........................ 2.7 -.1 -2.8 -1.5 -1.9 6.2 10.7 -3.6 -1.2 1.7 6.1 -1.3 -7.1 -5.6 6.1 -8.4 -5.5 2.5 4.6
Motor vehicle output.............. -2.7 -6.1 12.8 -2.0 21.0 2.0 -1.6 -7.9 -16.4 -18.1 -19.1 19.4 10.7 16.3 9.9 8.1 37.1 -13.4 -3.0
GDP less motor vehicle output..... 4.0 .5 2.1 2.1 4.6 7.3 2.7 5.4 1.2 1.8 .0 -2.2 -.6 2.3 4.9 1.0 3.0 1.9 1.8
Final sales of computers\1\....... 29.5 9.1 13.0 61.8 35.1 -3.9 56.9 45.2 9.6 10.2 30.0 -19.1 -5.3 28.9 -7.8 13.1 78.5 26.7 18.0
GDP less final sales of computers. 3.5 .2 2.4 1.5 4.9 7.2 2.2 4.5 .5 1.0 -.8 -1.4 -.2 2.6 5.1 1.2 3.6 1.2 1.5
Farm product\2\................... 11.5 -5.1 .4 25.7 -7.3 8.7 35.1 4.7 15.3 -19.1 -10.6 -17.5 -4.3 74.0 -14.2 -26.7 7.9 9.5 24.5
Nonfarm business less housing
product\3\....................... 4.1 -.1 2.8 1.8 6.0 8.5 2.1 5.6 .3 1.2 -.9 -2.8 -.8 3.0 6.3 .9 5.4 1.8 1.5
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 -.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.5
GDP less food and energy.......... 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 .0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.6 2.0
GDP less final sales of computers. 2.3 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.5 1.8 2.2 4.1 2.7 2.4 -.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.7
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.5 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3 1.7 -.2 .4 1.2 2.3 1.2 1.8 3.6
Gross domestic purchases less
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.3 .6 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.0
Gross domestic purchases less
final sales of computers......... 2.8 2.2 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.4 3.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.8 2.0 .1 .7 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.0 3.9
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.5 2.0 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 1.8 -.1 .8 1.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 2.8
Personal consumption expenditures
less food and energy............. 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.8 1.2 .7 2.7 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 .9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: Measures of Output and Prices
This note describes the calculation of chain-type quantity and price indexes used in the NIPA's.
Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the
economy in a particular period. These changes can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or
"real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year--at present, the year 1996--equal to
100.
The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights
from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes
are calculated.) For example, the 2000-01 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2000 and 2001 as weights,
and the 2000-01 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2000 and 2001 as weights. These annual
changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. The Fisher formula
produces percent changes in quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of reference years. In addition,
because the changes in quantities and prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity
index and the corresponding price index equals the current-dollar index. (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level
known as the "implicit price deflator (IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding
chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding
"chain-type" price index for all periods.)
Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6 and from the quarter
one year ago in table 7. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2. BEA also
prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1996) dollar
estimates." For GDP and most other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying
the 1996 current-dollar value by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a
current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1996 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1997,
then the chained (1996) dollar value of this component in 1997 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).
For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding. However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from
those used for the reference year, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to
the chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate. A measure of the extent of such differences is
provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or another major aggregate) and the sum of
the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much
change in the relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the
chained (1996) dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed
estimates. As one moves further from the reference year, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar
estimates become less useful for analyses of contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in
table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative
prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few
years from the reference year.
References: "A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: Statistical Changes," October 1999 Survey,
pp. 6-17; "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey, pp. 36-40; "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of
Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey, pp. 58-68.
|
|
