 |
The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet and the entire release is available in PDF format. The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet. The entire release will be available in PDF format shortly.-->
Also available: a brief summary of highlights.
 |
Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 BEA 04-04
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2003 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real
GDP increased 8.2 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 27,
2004.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), exports, equipment and software, inventory investment, and residential fixed
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in
PCE, an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in equipment and software and in residential fixed
investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in exports and an upturn in inventory investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.25 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real
GDP after contributing 0.65 percentage point to the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 6.9 percent in the third. Durable goods purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an
increase of 28.0 percent. PCE purchases of motor vehicles decreased in the fourth quarter after
increasing in the third. The fourth-quarter downturn was partly offset by an upturn in motor vehicle
inventory investment. PCE nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 7.3
percent. Services expenditures increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of 12.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 3.0 percent, compared with a
decrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 10.0 percent, compared with an increase of
17.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.6 percent, compared with an increase of
21.9 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of 9.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.3 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.8 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.7 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third. National defense increased 1.8
percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent. Nondefense decreased 1.6 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 6.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in
real GDP, after subtracting 0.13 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion in the third
quarter and $4.5 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.4
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.3 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $70.1 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $96.6 billion (4.3 percent) in the third. Personal current taxes increased
$68.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $64.2 billion. The upturn in taxes primarily reflected the drop-
off in advance payments of the child tax credit sent to taxpayers in the third quarter as part of the Jobs
and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.
Disposable personal income increased $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase
of $160.8 billion in the third. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 6.3 percent.
Personal outlays increased $62.7 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $161.8 billion (8.4 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $127.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $188.1 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income --decreased from 2.3
percent in the third quarter to 1.5 percent in the fourth.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.1
percent, or $139.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $11,246.3 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 10.0 percent, or $260.3 billion.
2003 GDP
Real GDP increased 3.1 percent in 2003 (that is, from the 2002 annual level to the 2003 annual
level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2002.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2003 were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, equipment and software, and residential fixed
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in 2003.
The acceleration in real GDP in 2003 primarily reflected an upturn in equipment and software, a
smaller decrease in nonresidential structures, and an upturn in exports that were partly offset by a
downturn in private inventory investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in 2003, compared with an
increase of 1.4 percent in 2002.
Current-dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent, or $503.1 billion, in 2003. Current-dollar GDP
increased 3.8 percent, or $380.0 billion, in 2002.
During 2003 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003), real
GDP increased 4.3 percent. Real GDP increased 2.8 percent during 2002. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent during 2003, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent during
2002.
BOX
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "Business Situation."
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
&<'www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- February 27, 2004, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2003 (Preliminary)
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source
agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of
the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The
"latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar
year and of the 2 preceding years. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year
intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more
accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of
new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the
different vintages of the estimates. These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For
example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in
the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point.
Thus, based on past history, the fourth-quarter change in real GDP now
estimated at 4.0 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below
3.4 percent or above 4.9 percent in the next two releases.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average without Range
compared regard to sign Two-thirds Nine-tenths
of revisions of revisions
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.6 -0.5 to 0.8 -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final........... .7 - .6 to 1.0 -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .6 to .7
Advance to latest.......... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.7 -1.9 to 3.4
Preliminary to latest...... 1.2 - .9 to 1.6 -1.8 to 2.6
Final to latest............ 1.2 -1.0 to 1.7 -2.2 to 2.6
Real GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.2
Advance to final........... .6 - .6 to .9 -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .5 to .6
Advance to latest.......... 1.4 -1.1 to 2.0 -2.2 to 3.3
Preliminary to latest...... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.9 -2.0 to 2.9
Final to latest........... 1.4 -1.2 to 2.0 -2.6 to 3.1
NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 2002 for the first three comparisons in each group and on the period from
1978 through 2000 for the last three comparisons in each group.
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). .5 2.2 3.1 1.0 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.0
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 3.4 3.1 6.5 2.5 3.9 3.4 .5 2.3 1.9 6.2 4.1 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.3 6.9 2.6
Durable goods..................... 4.1 6.5 7.4 24.4 -9.5 6.0 .7 1.7 9.8 .7 27.3 1.6 .5 5.0 .3 .5 17.7 28.0 .9
Nondurable goods.................. 1.9 3.0 3.7 .3 5.7 2.3 3.7 .4 -1.1 2.9 4.7 6.1 .4 .2 4.6 5.7 1.2 7.3 4.4
Services.......................... 2.4 3.0 2.0 6.0 3.9 4.3 3.9 .3 2.4 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.1 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.1
Gross private domestic investment... -8.4 -1.2 4.1 -6.9 29.1 -9.9 -2.3 -11.1 -16.4 -8.5 -17.7 11.1 4.6 11.4 -.6 -3.5 4.7 14.8 12.4
Fixed investment.................. -3.2 -3.7 4.3 11.5 9.5 -.6 .7 -2.7 -9.2 -5.2 -10.8 -2.5 .6 .6 2.1 1.1 6.1 15.8 8.1
Nonresidential.................. -4.5 -7.2 2.8 14.3 14.8 2.2 .9 -4.5 -13.6 -8.4 -14.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.1 -.1 -.6 7.0 12.8 6.9
Structures.................... -2.5 -18.4 -4.7 7.0 18.0 9.6 1.2 -5.9 -5.6 2.2 -35.3 -23.9 -14.5 -14.6 -5.6 -4.0 3.9 -1.8 -3.0
Equipment and software........ -5.2 -2.8 5.2 16.9 13.7 -.2 .8 -4.0 -16.4 -12.2 -4.1 -.2 1.2 3.7 1.7 .5 8.0 17.6 10.0
Residential..................... .4 4.9 7.6 4.1 -3.5 -8.0 .4 2.6 3.7 3.1 -2.5 8.7 8.9 4.2 6.8 4.5 4.5 21.9 10.6
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -5.2 -2.4 1.9 6.6 12.3 10.7 -2.7 -4.5 -13.4 -17.7 -9.8 4.4 8.7 4.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 9.9 19.1
Goods........................... -6.1 -4.0 1.8 8.7 13.8 18.3 -5.4 -5.4 -18.1 -18.9 -7.6 -2.6 12.0 4.3 -9.1 1.9 -1.7 8.6 19.2
Services........................ -3.1 1.4 2.3 1.4 8.5 -6.6 4.4 -2.0 -.6 -14.7 -15.0 22.8 1.6 4.5 9.4 -10.1 .2 12.7 18.9
Imports........................... -2.6 3.3 3.7 16.7 16.5 14.1 -1.6 -6.2 -8.6 -10.8 -3.8 8.4 17.1 4.1 8.2 -6.8 9.1 .8 11.3
Goods........................... -3.2 3.7 4.5 16.0 17.7 14.1 -1.6 -6.8 -12.2 -9.2 -3.2 6.3 21.9 4.8 7.4 -6.6 13.7 -1.5 12.2
Services........................ .4 1.4 -.1 20.8 10.7 14.1 -1.9 -3.1 12.5 -18.2 -6.9 19.2 -3.6 .7 12.2 -7.5 -10.9 13.4 7.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.8 3.8 3.4 -3.0 5.5 -2.1 1.3 5.8 5.8 -4.1 7.4 4.6 4.0 2.5 7.1 -.4 7.4 1.8 .8
Federal........................... 3.7 7.9 8.7 -13.9 17.2 -8.2 -1.0 8.9 6.7 .0 9.9 8.4 10.5 3.9 18.2 -.2 23.5 1.2 .7
National defense................ 3.9 8.9 10.5 -21.3 17.0 -7.4 1.7 7.7 2.6 2.4 14.2 8.2 9.5 4.5 22.1 -5.6 41.9 -1.3 1.8
Nondefense...................... 3.5 6.2 5.4 1.2 17.6 -9.7 -5.7 11.2 14.4 -4.3 2.6 8.7 12.2 2.9 11.4 10.5 -5.0 6.5 -1.6
State and local................... 2.2 1.8 .6 3.2 .1 1.3 2.5 4.3 5.3 -6.1 6.1 2.7 .7 1.7 1.5 -.5 -.8 2.1 .9
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 1.4 1.8 3.2 4.2 3.3 1.3 2.6 1.4 .7 -.7 3.2 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 8.3 3.4
Gross domestic purchases.......... .7 2.8 3.3 2.5 7.2 .4 2.1 -.7 -.4 -.8 2.4 5.2 3.1 3.4 2.7 1.1 4.3 7.0 3.7
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 1.6 2.4 3.3 5.6 4.2 2.1 2.6 .9 .9 -.3 3.6 3.2 2.5 1.8 3.1 1.8 4.5 7.2 3.1
Gross national product (GNP)...... .5 2.1 ..... .8 6.6 -.7 3.0 -1.3 -.6 -1.9 4.6 2.6 1.3 3.8 2.0 1.5 3.3 8.3 .....
Disposable personal income........ 1.8 3.8 2.5 9.2 2.7 5.2 .6 -.3 -1.4 12.2 -4.4 10.6 4.1 -.9 .6 2.4 4.9 6.3 -.5
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 2.9 3.8 4.8 4.7 8.3 1.6 3.8 2.9 2.6 .3 3.9 5.4 3.9 4.4 3.1 4.3 4.2 10.0 5.1
Final sales of domestic product. 3.9 3.3 4.9 7.8 5.4 3.2 4.5 4.5 4.0 .9 4.8 3.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 5.1 4.4 10.1 4.6
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.7 4.2 5.2 6.6 8.9 2.9 3.7 1.9 1.9 .2 3.3 5.8 6.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 8.9 4.6
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 3.6 3.8 5.3 9.7 6.1 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.3 .7 4.1 4.2 5.0 3.5 4.8 5.3 4.8 9.1 4.1
GNP............................. 2.8 3.6 ..... 4.4 8.4 1.4 4.7 1.8 2.5 -.3 6.5 3.3 3.3 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 10.1 .....
Disposable personal income...... 3.8 5.2 4.4 13.0 4.7 7.2 2.4 2.9 1.1 12.8 -4.1 11.4 7.2 1.1 2.3 5.3 5.4 8.1 .1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... .5 2.2 3.1 1.0 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.0
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 1.68 2.38 2.19 4.38 1.78 2.62 2.29 .28 1.52 1.27 4.20 2.92 1.81 1.39 1.57 1.80 2.34 4.89 1.84
Durable goods................... .36 .55 .61 1.96 -.89 .50 .06 .15 .80 .06 2.14 .14 .04 .43 .02 .04 1.38 2.23 .08
Motor vehicles and parts...... .19 .18 .16 1.31 -1.12 .28 .01 .04 .67 -.13 1.58 -.44 -.25 .29 -.33 -.16 .54 1.36 -.43
Furniture and household
equipment.................... .18 .30 .29 .45 .19 .19 .07 .18 .16 .23 .40 .45 .23 .12 .24 .04 .54 .65 .34
Other......................... -.01 .08 .16 .19 .04 .03 -.02 -.07 -.02 -.04 .16 .13 .05 .02 .11 .17 .30 .21 .16
Nondurable goods................ .37 .60 .75 .06 1.11 .44 .72 .06 -.22 .57 .91 1.19 .07 .04 .90 1.13 .25 1.48 .89
Food.......................... .12 .22 .37 .16 .39 .09 .14 .22 -.03 .02 .14 .56 .19 .03 .22 .63 .23 .71 .31
Clothing and shoes............ .06 .15 .13 .27 .21 .19 .04 -.08 .01 .15 .19 .33 .01 -.01 .21 .09 .21 .27 .03
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. .03 .04 -.02 -.13 -.06 -.05 .25 .12 -.37 .09 .32 .10 -.20 -.09 .21 .08 -.40 .07 .20
Other......................... .15 .20 .26 -.23 .56 .21 .29 -.19 .17 .31 .27 .22 .07 .11 .25 .33 .20 .43 .35
Services........................ .96 1.23 .83 2.36 1.55 1.67 1.51 .07 .94 .64 1.15 1.58 1.70 .92 .65 .63 .71 1.19 .87
Housing....................... .28 .29 .24 .32 .31 .27 .28 .33 .26 .21 .25 .35 .33 .28 .25 .26 .20 .25 .14
Household operation........... .00 .04 .02 .12 .51 .16 .41 -.27 -.31 -.05 -.17 .18 .36 -.14 .04 .04 -.13 .14 .12
Electricity and gas......... -.02 .04 .00 -.05 .33 .07 .40 -.15 -.49 -.04 -.13 .20 .27 -.05 .09 .01 -.21 .06 .08
Other household operation... .02 .00 .02 .18 .18 .08 .01 -.12 .17 -.01 -.04 -.02 .09 -.09 -.05 .03 .08 .08 .04
Transportation................ -.02 -.05 -.06 .12 .08 -.01 .01 .03 -.01 -.15 -.14 .10 -.05 -.12 -.09 .01 -.11 -.06 -.06
Medical care.................. .45 .63 .59 .37 .47 .41 .42 .35 .47 .62 .61 .75 .61 .51 .69 .59 .53 .60 .53
Recreation.................... .06 .11 .07 .06 .14 .10 .04 .09 -.02 .06 .15 .19 .07 .05 .09 .00 .10 .08 .15
Other......................... .18 .20 -.02 1.37 .05 .75 .34 -.45 .56 -.06 .45 .00 .38 .34 -.33 -.28 .13 .19 -.02
Gross private domestic investment. -1.47 -.18 .61 -1.30 4.65 -1.84 -.36 -1.96 -2.92 -1.39 -2.98 1.60 .69 1.66 -.09 -.57 .73 2.17 1.84
Fixed investment................ -.54 -.60 .65 1.83 1.60 -.10 .13 -.45 -1.60 -.88 -1.83 -.41 .08 .08 .31 .16 .90 2.30 1.23
Nonresidential................ -.56 -.82 .28 1.64 1.76 .28 .11 -.56 -1.76 -1.02 -1.71 -.81 -.33 -.12 -.01 -.06 .68 1.25 .69
Structures.................. -.08 -.59 -.12 .21 .53 .29 .04 -.20 -.19 .07 -1.36 -.77 -.41 -.40 -.14 -.10 .09 -.04 -.07
Equipment and software...... -.47 -.23 .40 1.44 1.23 -.02 .07 -.37 -1.57 -1.09 -.35 -.03 .09 .28 .13 .04 .59 1.30 .76
Information processing
equipment and software... -.10 .02 .53 1.13 .96 .33 .58 -.20 -.84 -.58 -.15 .09 .37 .53 -.06 .64 .64 1.05 .62
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. .02 .11 .24 .22 .45 .12 .06 .16 -.22 -.26 .19 .22 .06 .28 .09 .21 .33 .39 .24
Software................ -.04 -.04 .14 .17 .18 .02 .20 -.07 -.24 -.16 -.21 -.05 .09 .21 -.06 .18 .15 .24 .22
Other................... -.08 -.05 .16 .74 .33 .19 .32 -.28 -.39 -.16 -.14 -.08 .21 .05 -.10 .26 .15 .41 .17
Industrial equipment...... -.14 -.09 -.05 .29 .14 .09 -.12 .04 -.53 -.30 -.22 .26 -.21 .00 -.04 -.10 -.02 .02 -.08
Transportation equipment.. -.18 -.14 -.12 -.12 .04 -.31 -.36 -.27 .00 -.25 .24 -.34 -.24 -.26 .20 -.37 -.09 -.05 .07
Other equipment........... -.05 -.02 .04 .13 .09 -.13 -.03 .06 -.21 .04 -.21 -.04 .17 .00 .04 -.13 .05 .28 .15
Residential................... .02 .23 .37 .19 -.16 -.38 .02 .12 .16 .14 -.12 .40 .41 .20 .32 .22 .22 1.05 .54
Change in private inventories... -.93 .41 -.04 -3.13 3.05 -1.74 -.49 -1.51 -1.32 -.51 -1.15 2.01 .61 1.58 -.40 -.74 -.17 -.13 .61
Farm.......................... .02 -.03 .02 -.51 .88 -.36 .34 .03 -.34 .14 -.26 .39 -.64 .34 -.02 .15 -.09 -.03 .02
Nonfarm....................... -.94 .44 -.05 -2.62 2.18 -1.38 -.83 -1.54 -.99 -.65 -.89 1.62 1.25 1.25 -.38 -.88 -.08 -.10 .59
Net exports of goods and services. -.19 -.70 -.32 -1.53 -.98 -.87 -.07 .46 -.25 -.42 -.50 -.65 -1.32 -.15 -1.47 .81 -1.34 .80 .19
Exports......................... -.58 -.24 .19 .70 1.30 1.14 -.31 -.50 -1.54 -1.99 -1.02 .40 .80 .41 -.37 -.19 -.11 .92 1.69
Goods......................... -.48 -.29 .12 .65 1.03 1.36 -.45 -.44 -1.52 -1.50 -.54 -.19 .75 .28 -.64 .13 -.11 .56 1.17
Services...................... -.10 .04 .07 .05 .26 -.22 .14 -.06 -.02 -.48 -.47 .59 .05 .13 .27 -.31 .01 .36 .52
Imports......................... .39 -.45 -.51 -2.23 -2.27 -2.01 .24 .96 1.29 1.57 .52 -1.05 -2.12 -.56 -1.10 1.00 -1.24 -.12 -1.50
Goods......................... .39 -.42 -.51 -1.79 -2.03 -1.70 .19 .88 1.57 1.10 .35 -.66 -2.20 -.55 -.83 .81 -1.51 .18 -1.34
Services...................... -.01 -.03 .00 -.44 -.24 -.32 .04 .08 -.28 .47 .16 -.39 .09 -.02 -.27 .19 .27 -.30 -.16
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. .48 .69 .63 -.56 .96 -.37 .22 .99 1.00 -.74 1.28 .85 .72 .46 1.29 -.07 1.36 .34 .16
Federal......................... .22 .48 .56 -.93 .96 -.51 -.07 .50 .38 .00 .57 .52 .64 .26 1.11 -.01 1.46 .09 .05
National defense.............. .15 .35 .44 -.92 .61 -.29 .06 .27 .10 .09 .53 .33 .38 .19 .85 -.25 1.58 -.06 .08
Consumption expenditures.... .13 .29 .39 -.88 .60 -.30 .11 .29 .00 .03 .50 .32 .22 .09 .93 -.19 1.39 -.20 .11
Gross investment............ .02 .06 .04 -.04 .01 .01 -.05 -.01 .10 .06 .02 .01 .15 .10 -.07 -.06 .19 .13 -.03
Nondefense.................... .07 .14 .12 -.01 .35 -.22 -.13 .23 .28 -.09 .04 .20 .27 .07 .26 .24 -.12 .15 -.04
Consumption expenditures..... .07 .12 .11 .21 .28 -.13 -.06 .19 .19 -.02 .06 .14 .15 .13 .26 .25 -.26 .23 -.04
Gross investment............. .00 .02 .01 -.22 .07 -.09 -.07 .04 .09 -.07 -.02 .06 .11 -.06 .00 -.01 .14 -.08 .00
State and local................. .26 .21 .07 .36 .01 .15 .29 .49 .62 -.74 .71 .33 .08 .20 .18 -.06 -.10 .25 .11
Consumption expenditures.... .20 .13 .06 .09 .16 .10 .21 .29 .22 .13 .21 .01 .17 .11 .19 .06 -.05 -.02 .04
Gross investment............ .06 .08 .00 .28 -.15 .05 .08 .20 .40 -.88 .50 .31 -.09 .09 -.01 -.12 -.05 .27 .07
Addenda:
Goods........................... -.71 .71 1.39 -.92 3.64 -1.19 .10 -1.17 -2.08 -1.40 1.38 2.54 -.37 2.12 -.92 1.37 .75 5.67 2.18
Services........................ 1.26 1.77 1.48 1.40 2.63 .80 1.95 .85 1.05 .77 1.61 2.25 2.38 1.37 2.02 .62 2.08 1.27 1.35
Structures...................... -.04 -.29 .25 .51 .15 -.07 .03 .09 .38 -.65 -1.00 -.08 -.10 -.13 .19 -.02 .26 1.27 .50
Motor vehicle output............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Final sales of computers........ .14 .10 .31 .52 .47 .10 .19 .45 -.20 -.19 .22 .06 .06 .35 .26 .26 .25 .65 .25
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (2000) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 2003 III 03 IV 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product....... 10,983.9 10,623.7 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,246.3 10,397.2 10,160.8 10,210.4 10,288.3 10,493.1 10,597.1 314.2 204.8 104.0
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,752.3 7,501.2 7,600.7 7,673.6 7,836.3 7,898.4 7,362.2 7,198.9 7,244.1 7,304.0 7,426.6 7,474.2 221.8 122.6 47.6
Durable goods................... 941.8 907.3 898.2 926.2 975.1 967.8 1,027.6 963.8 965.0 1,005.1 1,069.1 1,071.4 70.4 64.0 2.3
Motor vehicles and parts...... 423.6 410.4 402.1 414.5 447.2 430.4 441.3 419.0 414.5 429.5 466.9 454.3 18.0 37.4 -12.6
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 334.5 325.3 321.8 329.9 339.9 346.4 400.7 373.5 374.7 391.7 412.4 424.0 36.0 20.7 11.6
Other......................... 183.8 171.6 174.3 181.8 188.0 191.0 187.7 173.0 177.6 185.9 191.4 196.1 17.5 5.5 4.7
Nondurable goods................ 2,208.3 2,119.2 2,175.7 2,170.8 2,230.0 2,256.9 2,119.8 2,061.8 2,090.5 2,096.9 2,134.3 2,157.6 76.2 37.4 23.3
Food.......................... 1,064.2 1,016.4 1,037.4 1,049.7 1,074.9 1,094.7 994.6 963.9 979.6 985.4 1,002.8 1,010.7 36.4 17.4 7.9
Clothing and shoes............ 311.2 306.4 304.8 307.5 315.1 317.3 334.4 323.4 325.7 331.9 339.5 340.4 15.3 7.6 .9
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. 208.7 193.0 222.4 196.9 209.2 206.4 197.6 201.0 203.1 192.9 194.7 199.9 -1.7 1.8 5.2
Other......................... 624.3 603.4 611.1 616.7 630.8 638.4 593.8 573.8 582.2 587.4 598.3 607.3 26.5 10.9 9.0
Services........................ 4,602.1 4,474.7 4,526.8 4,576.6 4,631.2 4,673.8 4,223.8 4,175.4 4,190.7 4,208.4 4,237.2 4,259.0 82.0 28.8 21.8
Housing....................... 1,198.6 1,167.7 1,181.5 1,191.4 1,204.9 1,216.4 1,085.4 1,071.7 1,078.0 1,082.8 1,088.7 1,092.3 23.5 5.9 3.6
Household operation........... 426.3 412.9 422.6 424.2 428.5 429.9 396.7 395.6 396.6 393.4 396.8 400.0 2.2 3.4 3.2
Electricity and gas......... 164.5 156.0 163.1 163.9 165.8 165.3 145.5 147.9 148.0 143.1 144.5 146.5 .3 1.4 2.0
Other household operation... 261.8 256.9 259.5 260.3 262.7 264.6 251.2 247.6 248.5 250.5 252.4 253.6 2.0 1.9 1.2
Transportation................ 293.8 291.5 292.3 292.8 295.3 294.9 278.3 281.3 281.6 278.8 277.2 275.7 -6.5 -1.6 -1.5
Medical care.................. 1,302.2 1,239.8 1,263.1 1,289.2 1,315.1 1,341.4 1,189.7 1,154.8 1,169.3 1,182.4 1,196.9 1,210.2 57.6 14.5 13.3
Recreation.................... 319.3 309.7 312.6 317.2 321.3 326.4 291.3 287.5 287.5 290.1 291.9 295.5 6.5 1.8 3.6
Other......................... 1,061.9 1,053.0 1,054.7 1,061.9 1,066.2 1,064.8 981.1 983.5 976.6 979.7 984.3 983.8 -2.1 4.6 -.5
Gross private domestic investment. 1,667.5 1,614.7 1,605.3 1,624.3 1,689.1 1,751.5 1,635.7 1,595.8 1,581.6 1,599.9 1,656.1 1,705.3 63.7 56.2 49.2
Fixed investment................ 1,670.8 1,594.6 1,606.2 1,630.1 1,699.5 1,747.5 1,633.5 1,573.5 1,577.7 1,601.4 1,661.0 1,693.9 67.7 59.6 32.9
Nonresidential................ 1,108.0 1,074.3 1,071.8 1,086.9 1,124.4 1,148.9 1,122.8 1,088.9 1,087.3 1,105.8 1,139.5 1,158.7 30.2 33.7 19.2
Structures.................. 258.9 256.3 256.1 259.2 259.8 260.5 237.2 239.0 236.5 238.8 237.7 235.9 -11.8 -1.1 -1.8
Equipment and software...... 849.1 817.9 815.8 827.7 864.6 888.4 891.0 853.9 855.0 871.6 907.7 929.6 44.3 36.1 21.9
Information processing
equipment and software... 463.4 424.1 436.2 451.2 477.0 488.9 522.1 468.2 487.2 506.4 537.7 557.1 62.8 31.3 19.4
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. 97.1 84.9 86.8 93.5 101.8 106.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Software................ 181.0 169.8 173.4 177.6 185.1 187.8 182.3 169.7 174.4 178.6 185.0 191.0 14.8 6.4 6.0
Other................... 185.2 169.3 175.9 180.1 190.2 194.7 194.5 177.1 184.3 188.6 200.2 205.0 17.4 11.6 4.8
Industrial equipment...... 133.2 135.6 133.4 133.2 134.1 132.0 130.7 133.9 131.4 131.0 131.4 129.1 -5.4 .4 -2.3
Transportation equipment.. 120.2 128.8 119.8 115.3 117.8 127.9 115.5 127.2 117.4 115.1 113.7 115.6 -12.7 -1.4 1.9
Other equipment........... 132.4 129.4 126.3 128.1 135.7 139.6 128.2 126.1 122.6 123.9 131.1 135.1 3.9 7.2 4.0
Residential................... 562.8 520.3 534.4 543.2 575.1 598.6 506.1 481.0 486.4 491.7 516.7 529.8 35.8 25.0 13.1
Change in private inventories... -3.3 20.2 -.9 -5.8 -10.5 4.0 -1.5 21.5 1.6 -4.5 -9.1 6.1 -7.2 -4.6 15.2
Farm.......................... -3.1 -4.8 .2 -2.7 -4.3 -5.6 -1.6 -3.5 1.2 -2.0 -2.8 -2.7 1.7 -.8 .1
Nonfarm....................... -.2 25.0 -1.2 -3.0 -6.2 9.6 .4 25.4 .3 -2.4 -5.9 9.7 -8.9 -3.5 15.6
Net exports of goods and services. -491.5 -476.1 -487.6 -505.5 -490.6 -482.5 -505.5 -511.5 -490.0 -526.0 -505.2 -500.7 -34.9 20.8 4.5
Exports......................... 1,048.1 1,017.2 1,021.0 1,020.2 1,048.5 1,102.6 1,033.9 1,017.5 1,012.4 1,009.6 1,033.7 1,079.9 19.7 24.1 46.2
Goods......................... 724.7 698.3 707.6 707.7 722.1 761.5 719.7 703.2 706.5 703.5 718.2 750.5 12.5 14.7 32.3
Services...................... 323.3 318.8 313.3 312.5 326.4 341.0 314.0 314.0 305.7 305.9 315.2 329.1 7.2 9.3 13.9
Imports......................... 1,539.6 1,493.3 1,508.5 1,525.7 1,539.0 1,585.0 1,539.4 1,529.0 1,502.5 1,535.7 1,538.9 1,580.6 54.7 3.2 41.7
Goods......................... 1,279.1 1,240.8 1,254.2 1,272.4 1,275.6 1,314.4 1,304.1 1,288.1 1,266.2 1,307.4 1,302.4 1,340.4 55.7 -5.0 38.0
Services...................... 260.4 252.5 254.3 253.3 263.5 270.7 236.2 241.2 236.5 229.8 237.2 241.2 -.2 7.4 4.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. 2,055.7 1,983.9 2,017.4 2,054.2 2,072.1 2,078.8 1,899.5 1,870.8 1,869.0 1,902.8 1,911.1 1,915.0 62.6 8.3 3.9
Federal......................... 757.2 710.0 723.0 764.7 769.6 771.5 704.3 675.8 675.5 712.0 714.3 715.4 56.3 2.3 1.1
National defense.............. 497.0 461.1 463.3 507.3 507.2 510.1 462.6 439.5 433.2 472.8 471.2 473.4 43.8 -1.6 2.2
Consumption expenditures.... 436.8 404.6 408.6 447.5 443.7 447.4 401.4 382.0 377.3 411.8 406.9 409.7 39.2 -4.9 2.8
Gross investment............ 60.2 56.6 54.7 59.8 63.5 62.7 61.2 57.4 55.7 60.8 64.5 63.8 4.6 3.7 -.7
Nondefense.................... 260.2 248.9 259.7 257.4 262.4 261.4 241.7 236.4 242.4 239.3 243.1 242.1 12.5 3.8 -1.0
Consumption expenditures.... 226.3 216.1 227.3 221.4 228.5 227.8 207.7 203.6 209.9 203.4 209.3 208.4 11.4 5.9 -.9
Gross investment............ 33.9 32.7 32.4 36.0 33.8 33.6 34.0 32.7 32.4 36.0 33.8 33.7 1.1 -2.2 -.1
State and local................. 1,298.5 1,273.9 1,294.5 1,289.6 1,302.5 1,307.4 1,195.7 1,195.3 1,193.8 1,191.4 1,197.4 1,200.2 6.6 6.0 2.8
Consumption expenditures.... 1,045.3 1,024.2 1,045.8 1,040.9 1,046.3 1,048.4 956.9 956.4 957.8 956.6 956.0 957.1 6.4 -.6 1.1
Gross investment............ 253.1 249.7 248.7 248.7 256.2 259.0 238.9 239.0 236.0 234.7 241.5 243.2 .3 6.8 1.7
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -18.7 -2.5 -4.5 -11.5 -27.4 -32.2 ..... ..... .....
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,987.2 10,603.6 10,736.7 10,852.4 11,117.4 11,242.3 10,394.9 10,138.9 10,206.4 10,289.5 10,497.7 10,585.9 318.0 208.2 88.2
Gross domestic purchases........ 11,475.5 11,099.9 11,223.4 11,352.2 11,597.5 11,728.7 10,899.4 10,668.0 10,697.6 10,809.9 10,995.4 11,094.9 347.9 185.5 99.5
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 11,478.7 11,079.7 11,224.3 11,357.9 11,608.0 11,724.8 10,897.1 10,646.1 10,693.5 10,811.1 11,000.1 11,083.7 351.7 189.0 83.6
Gross domestic product.......... 10,983.9 10,623.7 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,246.3 10,397.2 10,160.8 10,210.4 10,288.3 10,493.1 10,597.1 314.2 204.8 104.0
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... ..... 304.8 296.8 299.5 312.1 ..... ..... 293.7 283.4 285.6 296.1 ..... ..... 10.5 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... ..... 266.9 269.0 266.2 274.3 ..... ..... 256.1 256.4 253.8 260.7 ..... ..... 6.9 .....
Equals: Gross national product.. ..... 10,661.6 10,763.7 10,880.0 11,144.8 ..... ..... 10,198.5 10,237.6 10,320.2 10,528.6 ..... ..... 208.4 .....
Net domestic product............ 9,676.2 9,323.3 9,430.1 9,543.3 9,797.9 9,933.4 9,087.6 8,858.4 8,903.4 8,983.4 9,181.7 9,281.7 289.1 198.3 100.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.4 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.0 1.4 1.8 3.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 2.5 .5 .4 .7 2.9 2.0 1.7 2.8 .5 1.8 .6
Durable goods..................... -1.9 -2.9 -3.7 -1.8 -.5 -2.5 -1.0 -1.3 -3.1 -2.8 -2.2 -3.5 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -4.4 -3.9 -4.0 -3.8
Nondurable goods.................. 1.5 .5 2.1 5.2 3.7 3.4 1.4 1.3 3.7 -.9 -4.3 -.1 5.7 1.4 1.0 5.1 -2.1 3.8 .4
Services.......................... 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.9 1.7 2.1 2.6 5.1 3.2 1.8 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.0 1.6
Gross private domestic investment... 1.1 .0 .9 2.0 1.2 1.9 .8 .3 1.3 2.3 .0 -.7 -.7 -1.0 1.6 1.3 .0 2.0 3.2
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 .1 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.9 .9 .1 1.6 2.4 .0 -.8 -.7 -.7 1.7 1.9 .0 2.1 3.4
Nonresidential.................. -.2 -.9 -.2 .6 .3 1.4 .0 -1.8 .2 .6 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 .4 -.3 -1.2 1.6 1.9
Structures.................... 5.5 1.4 2.0 4.8 3.6 4.5 5.0 6.5 6.9 6.3 1.2 -.9 .5 .3 1.1 3.8 1.1 2.7 4.1
Equipment and software........ -2.2 -1.7 -.9 -.8 -.8 .4 -1.7 -4.7 -2.1 -1.6 -2.1 -1.4 -2.1 -2.1 .2 -1.6 -1.8 1.2 1.3
Residential..................... 4.6 2.4 3.8 7.1 3.9 3.2 3.4 5.3 5.1 7.0 2.9 .3 1.1 .9 4.5 6.4 2.2 3.1 6.2
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -.4 -.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 .9 .4 .1 -1.2 -2.1 -3.6 -1.2 2.9 3.3 .6 3.6 .8 1.6 2.7
Goods........................... -.7 -.7 2.0 1.3 1.6 .3 .4 -.1 -1.6 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 2.1 3.3 .6 3.5 1.7 -.2 3.8
Services........................ .4 .3 2.2 6.2 3.5 2.5 .6 .6 -.3 -1.0 -3.0 -.9 4.6 3.2 .6 3.8 -1.3 5.7 .2
Imports........................... -2.5 -1.0 3.7 5.9 .7 4.2 .7 -2.8 -6.0 -5.3 -9.8 -1.6 10.5 3.7 .8 11.7 -4.1 2.7 1.1
Goods........................... -3.0 -1.7 2.9 6.8 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.6 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.7 2.7 .5 11.8 -6.8 2.6 .5
Services........................ .2 2.5 7.4 1.3 -2.0 2.5 .3 2.1 -3.0 1.4 -2.9 .7 9.3 8.6 2.0 11.3 10.4 3.3 4.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.6 2.6 2.9 6.6 1.7 4.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.4 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.8 7.3 .1 1.7 .5
Federal........................... 2.1 2.7 2.5 7.2 -1.1 5.0 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.7 5.9 2.3 1.2 -.5 7.7 1.4 1.3 .3
National defense................ 2.2 2.5 2.6 8.2 -.2 3.6 .9 3.6 1.6 2.4 .8 5.2 2.3 1.8 -.6 8.0 1.2 1.3 .4
Nondefense...................... 1.9 3.2 2.3 5.4 -2.6 7.5 2.7 -.7 1.8 2.3 3.6 7.3 2.1 .2 -.4 7.2 1.6 1.3 .1
State and local................... 2.9 2.5 3.1 6.3 3.2 4.2 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.3 2.4 3.8 2.7 3.0 7.1 -.7 2.0 .6
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.1 1.6 1.1
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.4 1.9 3.8 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.4 .4 1.8 1.0
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.0 1.4 1.9 3.8 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 .9 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.5 .4 1.8 1.0
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.4 1.5 ..... 3.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.7 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.4 1.5 1.6 3.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.9 .7 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.0
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.0 1.4 1.9 4.1 1.6 2.5 1.6 2.6 2.3 1.0 .8 .6 2.9 1.2 1.8 3.4 .4 1.8 .9
GNP............................. 2.4 1.5 ..... 3.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.9 .7 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 100.506 102.710 105.911 103.502 104.008 104.801 106.887 107.947
Personal consumption expenditures.......... 102.452 105.951 109.242 106.819 107.489 108.378 110.197 110.904
Durable goods............................ 104.144 110.868 119.033 111.638 111.779 116.420 123.834 124.100
Nondurable goods......................... 101.852 104.949 108.864 105.885 107.358 107.685 109.607 110.806
Services................................. 102.382 105.420 107.508 106.276 106.664 107.115 107.849 108.404
Gross private domestic investment.......... 91.650 90.580 94.251 91.953 91.135 92.186 95.424 98.260
Fixed investment......................... 96.826 93.258 97.291 93.718 93.968 95.378 98.932 100.886
Nonresidential......................... 95.517 88.683 91.131 88.378 88.248 89.751 92.485 94.042
Structures........................... 97.465 79.492 75.753 76.304 75.523 76.244 75.906 75.338
Equipment and software............... 94.825 92.144 96.961 92.927 93.047 94.851 98.779 101.166
Residential............................ 100.351 105.228 113.255 107.629 108.828 110.021 115.616 118.553
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 94.773 92.512 94.312 92.818 92.353 92.097 94.290 98.508
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.377 100.609 104.312 103.610 101.810 104.059 104.277 107.103
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 102.750 106.697 110.333 108.666 108.563 110.527 111.008 111.235
Federal.................................. 103.746 111.958 121.688 116.764 116.713 123.025 123.406 123.608
State and local.......................... 102.248 104.047 104.627 104.593 104.463 104.248 104.779 105.019
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product.......... 101.441 103.242 106.500 103.877 104.569 105.420 107.553 108.457
Gross domestic purchases................. 100.672 103.482 106.895 104.625 104.915 106.016 107.836 108.811
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.575 103.998 107.467 104.992 105.459 106.619 108.483 109.307
Gross national product................... 100.462 102.527 ..... 103.476 103.873 104.711 106.825 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 102.376 103.949 105.658 104.571 105.163 105.440 105.870 106.159
Personal consumption expenditures.......... 102.039 103.429 105.298 104.203 104.927 105.065 105.522 105.680
Durable goods............................ 98.086 95.208 91.690 94.136 93.074 92.147 91.207 90.330
Nondurable goods......................... 101.530 102.075 104.175 102.789 104.079 103.529 104.488 104.603
Services................................. 103.168 105.946 108.960 107.174 108.028 108.758 109.306 109.746
Gross private domestic investment.......... 101.070 101.119 102.041 101.259 101.586 101.589 102.093 102.895
Fixed investment......................... 101.087 101.155 102.273 101.341 101.808 101.796 102.319 103.168
Nonresidential......................... 99.770 98.859 98.676 98.658 98.579 98.293 98.678 99.154
Structures........................... 105.518 106.974 109.128 107.274 108.268 108.559 109.288 110.395
Equipment and software............... 97.786 96.121 95.294 95.781 95.404 94.961 95.251 95.561
Residential............................ 104.628 107.105 111.171 108.184 109.881 110.485 111.321 112.996
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 99.628 99.273 101.355 99.964 100.842 101.044 101.434 102.100
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.537 96.519 100.043 97.694 100.435 99.381 100.042 100.314
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 102.587 105.207 108.228 106.055 107.951 107.966 108.433 108.563
Federal.................................. 102.065 104.858 107.508 105.066 107.032 107.399 107.755 107.843
State and local.......................... 102.853 105.382 108.598 106.580 108.435 108.246 108.778 108.933
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product.......... 102.381 103.955 105.695 104.585 105.198 105.474 105.906 106.202
Gross domestic purchases................. 101.974 103.374 105.302 104.065 104.934 105.031 105.496 105.747
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.978 103.379 105.337 104.077 104.968 105.062 105.531 105.789
Gross national product................... 102.372 103.936 ..... 104.556 105.156 105.438 105.872 .....
Implicit price deflators:
Gross domestic product................. 102.373 103.945 105.643 104.556 105.146 105.427 105.851 106.126
Final sales of domestic product........ 102.381 103.955 105.698 104.583 105.196 105.471 105.904 106.200
Gross domestic purchases............... 101.971 103.370 105.285 104.048 104.915 105.017 105.476 105.713
Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 101.978 103.379 105.338 104.072 104.964 105.058 105.526 105.784
Gross national product................. 102.368 103.932 ..... 104.541 105.138 105.425 105.853 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Year
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.1 3.5 1.9 -.2 3.3 2.7 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .5 2.2 3.1
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.1 2.8 2.0 .2 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.7 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.1 4.7 2.5 3.4 3.1
Durable goods........................ 6.0 2.2 -.3 -5.6 5.9 7.8 8.4 4.4 7.8 8.6 11.3 11.7 7.3 4.1 6.5 7.4
Nondurable goods..................... 3.3 2.8 1.6 -.2 2.0 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 4.0 4.6 3.8 1.9 3.0 3.7
Services............................. 4.0 3.0 2.9 1.7 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.5 2.4 3.0 2.0
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.4 4.0 -3.4 -8.1 8.1 8.9 13.6 3.1 8.9 12.4 9.8 7.8 5.7 -8.4 -1.2 4.1
Fixed investment..................... 3.3 3.0 -2.1 -6.5 5.9 8.6 9.3 6.5 9.0 9.2 10.2 8.3 6.5 -3.2 -3.7 4.3
Nonresidential..................... 5.2 5.6 .5 -5.4 3.2 8.7 9.2 10.5 9.3 12.1 11.1 9.2 8.7 -4.5 -7.2 2.8
Structures....................... .6 2.0 1.5 -11.1 -6.0 -.7 1.8 6.4 5.6 7.3 5.1 -.4 6.8 -2.5 -18.4 -4.7
Equipment and software........... 7.5 7.3 .0 -2.6 7.3 12.5 11.9 12.0 10.6 13.8 13.3 12.7 9.4 -5.2 -2.8 5.2
Residential........................ -1.0 -3.0 -8.6 -9.6 13.8 8.2 9.6 -3.2 8.0 1.9 7.6 6.0 .8 .4 4.9 7.6
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 16.0 11.5 9.0 6.6 6.9 3.2 8.7 10.1 8.4 11.9 2.4 4.3 8.7 -5.2 -2.4 1.9
Goods.............................. 18.8 11.9 8.4 6.9 7.5 3.3 9.7 11.7 8.8 14.3 2.2 3.8 11.2 -6.1 -4.0 1.8
Services........................... 9.0 10.3 10.5 6.0 5.5 3.2 6.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 2.9 5.6 2.9 -3.1 1.4 2.3
Imports.............................. 3.9 4.4 3.6 -.6 7.0 8.8 11.9 8.0 8.7 13.6 11.6 11.5 13.1 -2.6 3.3 3.7
Goods.............................. 4.0 4.3 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.3 14.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 -3.2 3.7 4.5
Services........................... 3.4 4.9 6.5 -2.6 -2.6 2.9 5.7 3.3 5.5 9.4 11.4 6.9 11.1 .4 1.4 -.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.6 3.2 1.1 .5 -.9 .0 .5 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.1 2.8 3.8 3.4
Federal.............................. -1.6 1.5 2.0 -.2 -1.7 -4.2 -3.7 -2.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 2.2 .9 3.7 7.9 8.7
National defense................... -.5 -.5 .0 -1.1 -5.0 -5.6 -4.9 -3.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.1 1.9 -.5 3.9 8.9 10.5
Nondefense......................... -5.1 8.3 8.3 2.4 6.9 -.7 -1.2 -.4 -.7 2.6 .7 2.8 3.5 3.5 6.2 5.4
State and local...................... 3.7 3.4 4.1 2.1 2.2 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.6 4.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 .6
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.3 3.4 2.1 .1 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.4 1.8 3.2
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.2 3.0 1.4 -.8 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.4 .7 2.8 3.3
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 3.4 2.8 1.6 -.6 3.1 3.2 3.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.4 4.5 1.6 2.4 3.3
Gross national product............... 4.2 3.5 2.0 -.3 3.3 2.7 3.9 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 3.7 .5 2.1 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 4.3 2.8 1.9 .5 3.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.8 3.0 4.8 1.8 3.8 2.5
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 .6 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.9
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4
GDP................................ 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.6
GDP excluding food and energy...... 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4
Personal consumption expenditures.. 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 .9 1.7 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.1 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.9 .2 .0 .0 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.4 3.6 4.3
Personal consumption expenditures...... 5.5 4.6 4.5 4.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.7 3.8
Durable goods........................ 13.7 5.9 5.2 4.7 -.4 4.5 3.2 9.4 9.3 7.0 8.1 1.8 1.5 5.6 11.0 11.2
Nondurable goods..................... 3.7 4.1 4.3 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 4.7 4.6
Services............................. 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.0
Gross private domestic investment...... 4.4 11.2 5.8 1.4 .3 -10.1 -9.7 -13.5 -8.6 -3.3 1.6 6.5 2.8 2.8 3.6 6.9
Fixed investment..................... 7.8 7.7 5.5 5.1 1.6 -3.0 -4.2 -7.0 -7.0 -4.6 -3.1 .2 1.1 2.4 6.1 7.6
Nonresidential..................... 9.4 9.9 7.9 7.8 3.1 -4.0 -6.5 -10.2 -10.8 -8.2 -6.4 -2.8 -1.2 1.3 4.6 6.4
Structures....................... 2.7 6.3 9.6 8.8 5.3 -.4 -2.1 -12.4 -17.0 -19.0 -22.6 -14.9 -9.8 -5.3 -1.9 -1.3
Equipment and software........... 11.7 11.1 7.3 7.5 2.4 -5.2 -8.2 -9.4 -8.5 -4.0 .1 1.6 1.8 3.4 6.7 8.9
Residential........................ 3.7 1.9 -.7 -1.9 -2.2 -.4 2.4 1.7 3.2 4.4 4.7 7.1 6.1 5.0 9.2 10.1
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 8.2 10.2 10.1 6.5 3.7 -2.8 -9.8 -11.5 -9.5 -4.2 1.6 3.3 1.7 -.7 .6 6.1
Goods.............................. 10.2 12.6 13.7 8.5 4.8 -3.5 -12.2 -12.7 -12.1 -4.9 1.2 .8 2.0 -1.3 -.3 6.7
Services........................... 3.6 4.5 1.6 1.8 .9 -1.3 -3.5 -8.3 -3.0 -2.5 2.6 9.3 1.1 .7 2.6 4.8
Imports.............................. 13.6 14.0 13.8 11.2 5.2 -.9 -6.8 -7.4 -4.0 2.2 6.2 9.4 5.3 3.5 2.6 3.4
Goods.............................. 14.3 14.6 14.1 11.3 5.3 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.3 7.1 9.9 6.4 4.6 2.9 4.1
Services........................... 10.1 11.1 12.4 10.6 4.7 5.1 -3.3 -4.5 .5 -3.3 1.9 6.7 .2 -1.8 1.2 .0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 2.7 3.5 1.7 .4 2.6 2.7 2.1 3.6 3.3 2.9 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.1 3.9 2.4
Federal.............................. .9 4.6 .3 -2.2 3.8 1.4 3.6 6.3 6.2 7.1 8.2 10.1 7.9 10.9 10.2 5.9
National defense................... -.4 3.6 -1.6 -3.5 4.4 1.0 3.6 6.6 6.8 8.5 9.1 10.9 7.2 14.4 12.7 7.7
Nondefense......................... 3.4 6.3 3.9 .3 2.7 2.0 3.5 5.7 5.1 4.6 6.5 8.7 9.2 4.7 5.6 2.4
State and local...................... 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.0 3.3 1.4 2.3 1.9 .8 2.8 1.6 .8 .5 .5 .4
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.6 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 4.0 4.4
Gross domestic purchases............. 4.9 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.2 .3 .0 .1 1.6 2.5 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.8 3.8 4.0
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.6 2.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.8 4.1 4.1
Gross national product............... 4.1 4.8 3.5 2.4 1.8 .1 -.2 .2 1.1 1.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.7 3.8 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 4.4 4.9 5.7 4.4 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.3 4.0 5.4 2.2 3.5 1.6 1.7 3.5 3.2
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3
GDP................................ 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5
GDP excluding food and energy...... 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Personal consumption expenditures.. 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 10,100.8 10,480.8 10,983.9 10,623.7 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,246.3
Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the
world..................................... 319.0 299.1 ..... 304.8 296.8 299.5 312.1 .....
Less: Income payments to the rest of the
world..................................... 283.8 277.6 ..... 266.9 269.0 266.2 274.3 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 10,135.9 10,502.3 ..... 10,661.6 10,763.7 10,880.0 11,144.8 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,266.9 1,288.6 1,307.8 1,300.4 1,305.7 1,303.4 1,309.1 1,312.9
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -112.2 -77.2 ..... -15.7 23.2 -8.3 54.0 .....
Equals: National income.................... 8,981.2 9,290.8 ..... 9,376.9 9,434.8 9,584.9 9,781.7 .....
Compensation of employees................ 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,185.6 6,058.0 6,115.8 6,164.8 6,213.6 6,248.1
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,942.9 4,974.6 5,084.5 4,999.1 5,034.6 5,070.8 5,104.1 5,128.6
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 997.6 1,044.5 1,101.0 1,058.8 1,081.2 1,093.9 1,109.6 1,119.5
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.6 797.7 846.5 812.2 813.5 838.8 860.9 872.7
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 163.1 173.0 163.9 159.0 163.2 153.4 157.0 182.0
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.4 904.2 ..... 934.9 927.1 1,022.8 1,124.2 .....
Net interest and miscellaneous payments.. 568.4 582.4 582.3 589.7 589.3 581.7 579.9 578.1
Taxes on production and imports less
subsidies............................... 674.5 721.8 738.8 732.8 729.4 725.2 745.2 755.6
Business current transfer payments....... 92.5 89.8 95.1 86.2 90.1 92.5 97.1 100.8
Current surplus of government
enterprises............................. 1.2 2.8 4.9 4.1 6.3 5.8 3.7 4.1
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 10,213.0 10,558.0 ..... 10,639.4 10,712.7 10,855.0 11,053.0 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 10.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,713.1 8,910.3 9,187.4 8,981.3 9,048.7 9,145.9 9,242.5 9,312.6
Compensation of employees, received...... 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,185.6 6,058.0 6,114.4 6,166.2 6,213.6 6,248.1
Wage and salary disbursements.......... 4,942.9 4,974.6 5,084.5 4,999.1 5,033.2 5,072.2 5,104.1 5,128.6
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 997.6 1,044.5 1,101.0 1,058.8 1,081.2 1,093.9 1,109.6 1,119.5
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.6 797.7 846.5 812.2 813.5 838.8 860.9 872.7
Farm................................... 25.0 14.3 19.2 16.3 13.0 20.0 21.5 22.5
Nonfarm................................ 745.6 783.4 827.2 795.9 800.5 818.8 839.4 850.2
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 163.1 173.0 163.9 159.0 163.2 153.4 157.0 182.0
Personal income receipts on assets....... 1,374.9 1,378.5 1,389.3 1,392.0 1,388.6 1,390.2 1,389.2 1,389.1
Personal interest income............... 1,003.7 982.4 960.6 981.2 970.6 964.9 957.0 949.7
Personal dividend income............... 371.2 396.2 428.7 410.8 418.0 425.3 432.2 439.5
Personal current transfer receipts....... 1,192.6 1,292.2 1,376.7 1,315.6 1,337.6 1,369.7 1,398.7 1,400.8
Less: Contributions for government
social insurance........................ 728.5 750.3 774.5 755.5 768.7 772.3 776.9 780.2
Less: Personal current taxes............... 1,243.7 1,053.1 987.5 1,045.6 1,009.4 1,000.2 936.0 1,004.3
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,469.4 7,857.2 8,200.0 7,935.6 8,039.2 8,145.8 8,306.6 8,308.3
Less: Personal outlays..................... 7,342.2 7,674.0 8,036.2 7,789.2 7,888.3 7,956.7 8,118.5 8,181.2
Equals: Personal saving.................... 127.2 183.2 163.8 146.4 151.0 189.0 188.1 127.2
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.5
Addendum:
Disposable personal income, billions of
chained (2000) dollars\2\............... 7,320.2 7,596.7 7,787.4 7,615.8 7,662.0 7,753.5 7,872.3 7,862.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for
government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments,
business current transfer payments, current surplus of government
enterprises, and wage accruals less disbursements, plus personal
income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 00 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP) and
related aggregates:
GDP............................... .5 2.2 3.1 1.0 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.0
Goods............................. -2.0 2.1 4.3 -2.4 10.5 -3.3 .2 -3.4 -6.0 -4.1 4.1 7.7 -1.1 6.5 -2.8 4.3 2.2 18.3 6.7
Services.......................... 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.5 4.8 1.5 3.6 1.6 1.9 1.4 2.9 3.9 4.2 2.4 3.5 1.0 3.6 2.1 2.3
Structures........................ -.4 -3.0 2.6 5.9 1.6 -.7 .4 1.0 4.0 -6.4 -9.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 2.1 -.3 2.8 13.9 5.3
Motor vehicle output.............. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output........................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Final sales of computers\1\....... 13.6 11.1 40.6 62.4 49.6 9.2 18.6 52.2 -17.1 -17.9 27.2 5.0 6.6 50.9 34.8 34.6 32.8 93.4 27.5
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ .4 2.1 2.8 .5 6.0 -.6 1.9 -.7 -.4 -1.1 1.8 4.7 1.8 3.0 1.0 1.7 2.8 7.6 3.8
Farm gross value added\2\......... -4.2 1.9 1.5 65.1 5.2 4.8 -18.2 -2.0 -15.8 -16.6 100.1 -64.2 94.9 50.5 -1.5 -39.5 59.0 -3.2 -35.8
Nonfarm business gross value
added\3\......................... .1 2.3 3.7 -.1 7.5 -.8 2.2 -.8 -1.0 -2.5 1.6 6.7 .8 4.0 1.6 2.4 3.8 10.4 4.2
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.4 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.1
GDP excluding food and energy..... 2.1 1.8 1.4 3.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 .7 1.3 1.0
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ 2.7 1.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 3.7 3.4 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.2 1.8 1.2
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.4 1.9 3.8 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.4 .4 1.8 1.0
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 .9 1.3 1.1
Gross domestic purchases excluding
final sales of computers to
domestic purchasers.............. 2.3 1.6 2.1 4.0 2.1 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.6 1.3 .8 1.2 2.6 1.8 2.0 3.6 .5 2.0 1.1
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.0 1.4 1.8 3.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 2.5 .5 .4 .7 2.9 2.0 1.7 2.8 .5 1.8 .6
Personal consumption expenditures
excluding food and energy........ 1.9 1.7 1.2 2.4 1.3 .9 1.5 2.8 1.9 1.3 2.5 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 .9 .8 1.0 .7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of
households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices
Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in
the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and
price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the
reference year -- at present, the year 2000 -- equal to 100.
Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates
weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a
Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for
consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2001-02
annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2001 and 2002 as weights, and the 2001-02 annual
percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2001 and 2002 as weights. These annual changes are
"chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in
Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the
price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the
current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD
are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.)
Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this
release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, and 8.
Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2.
Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form,
designated "chained (2000) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in
table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2000 by a corresponding quantity index
number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in
2000 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2001, then the chained (2000) dollar
value of this component in 2001 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from
chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small
and due to rounding.
Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar
estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights
for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the
extent of such differences is provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP
(or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to
the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as
weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the
contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference
year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of
contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better
measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are
changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just
a few years from the reference year.
Reference: "Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," November
2003 Survey, pp. 8-16.
|
|
