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The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet and the entire release is available in PDF format.
Also available: a brief summary of highlights. The tables in this release are available in an XLS spreadsheet. The entire release will be available in PDF format shortly.-->
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Virginia H. Mannering: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) BEA 04-18
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2004 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2004,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real
GDP increased 4.1 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are
incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The first-quarter
"preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 27, 2004.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, government spending, exports, and private inventory
investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The slight acceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in
imports, an upturn in government spending, and an acceleration in PCE that were largely offset by
decelerations in exports, in inventory investment, and in residential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the fourth. About 0.3 percentage point of
the first-quarter increase in the index was accounted for by the pay raise for federal civilian and military
personnel, which is treated as an increase in the price index of employee services purchased by the
federal government.
FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.07 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP
after contributing 0.29 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted
0.04 percentage point from the first-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.13 percentage point
to the fourth-quarter change.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth. Durable goods purchases decreased 4.7 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 0.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 6.4 percent, compared with an increase of 5.4
percent. Services expenditures increased 4.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 7.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of 10.9 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 6.5 percent, compared with a
decrease of 1.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 11.5 percent, compared with an increase of
14.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.9
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of 20.5 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 2.0 percent,
compared with an increase of 16.4 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.1 percent
in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the fourth. National defense increased
15.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent. Nondefense increased 0.7 percent, in contrast to
a decrease of 3.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 2.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.5 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 0.27 percentage point to the first-quarter change in
real GDP, after adding 0.71 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased
inventories $15.3 billion in the first quarter, following an increase of $9.0 billion in the fourth quarter
and a decrease of $9.1 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.9
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 4.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the
fourth.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $128.9 billion (5.6 percent) in the first quarter,
compared with an increase of $107.6 billion (4.7 percent) in the fourth. Personal current taxes decreased
$26.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $76.0 billion.
Disposable personal income increased $155.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of $31.6 billion in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 4.3 percent, compared
with an increase of 0.5 percent.
Personal outlays increased $134.9 billion (6.7 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of $90.1 billion (4.5 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $161.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with $140.8 billion in the fourth.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- increased from 1.7
percent in the fourth quarter to 1.9 percent in the first.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
6.8 percent, or $185.8 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $11,447.8 billion. In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.7 percent, or $155.0 billion.
BOX
Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The annual revision of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of
2001 through the first quarter of 2004, will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for
the second quarter of 2004 on July 30. An article describing the revision will appear in the August
2004 issue of the Survey of Current Business.
Schedule for Revised Estimates of Wages and Salaries
Beginning on May 27, 2004, BEA will accelerate by one month revisions to the estimates of
wages and salaries for the prior quarter. The revised estimates will be released along with the
"preliminary" GDP estimates instead of the "final" estimates. These revisions incorporate wage and
salary tabulations of employees covered by state unemployment insurance from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The accelerated schedule reflects the more timely availability of the BLS tabulations.
BOX
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical
note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a
detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each
month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the
Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "Business Situation."
* * *
BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:
<www.bea.gov>
Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:
(202) 606-5306 Gross domestic product
(202) 606-5303 Personal income and outlays
(202) 606-5362 U.S. international transactions
Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal. Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.
* * *
Next release -- May 27, 2004, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2004 (Preliminary)
Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2004
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source
agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of
the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The
"latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar
year and of the 2 preceding years. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year
intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more
accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of
new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the
different vintages of the estimates. These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions. For
example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in
the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point.
Thus, based on past history, the fourth-quarter change in real GDP now
estimated at 4.2 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below
3.6 percent or above 5.1 percent in the next two releases.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average without Range
compared regard to sign Two-thirds Nine-tenths
of revisions of revisions
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.6 -0.5 to 0.8 -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final........... .7 - .6 to 1.0 -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .6 to .7
Advance to latest.......... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.7 -1.9 to 3.4
Preliminary to latest...... 1.2 - .9 to 1.6 -1.8 to 2.6
Final to latest............ 1.2 -1.0 to 1.7 -2.2 to 2.6
Real GDP
Advance to preliminary..... 0.5 -0.5 to 0.7 -0.9 to 1.2
Advance to final........... .6 - .6 to .9 -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final....... .3 - .3 to .4 - .5 to .6
Advance to latest.......... 1.4 -1.1 to 2.0 -2.2 to 3.3
Preliminary to latest...... 1.3 -1.0 to 1.9 -2.0 to 2.9
Final to latest........... 1.4 -1.2 to 2.0 -2.6 to 3.1
NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 2002 for the first three comparisons in each group and on the period from
1978 through 2000 for the last three comparisons in each group.
Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). .5 2.2 3.1 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.1 4.2
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.5 3.4 3.1 2.5 3.9 3.4 .5 2.3 1.9 6.2 4.1 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.3 6.9 3.2 3.8
Durable goods..................... 4.1 6.5 7.4 -9.5 6.0 .7 1.7 9.8 .7 27.3 1.6 .5 5.0 .3 .5 17.7 28.0 .7 -4.7
Nondurable goods.................. 1.9 3.0 3.8 5.7 2.3 3.7 .4 -1.1 2.9 4.7 6.1 .4 .2 4.6 5.7 1.2 7.3 5.4 6.4
Services.......................... 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.9 4.3 3.9 .3 2.4 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.1 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.8 4.3
Gross private domestic investment... -8.4 -1.2 4.2 29.1 -9.9 -2.3 -11.1 -16.4 -8.5 -17.7 11.1 4.6 11.4 -.6 -3.5 4.7 14.8 14.9 7.2
Fixed investment.................. -3.2 -3.7 4.4 9.5 -.6 .7 -2.7 -9.2 -5.2 -10.8 -2.5 .6 .6 2.1 1.1 6.1 15.8 9.9 5.4
Nonresidential.................. -4.5 -7.2 3.0 14.8 2.2 .9 -4.5 -13.6 -8.4 -14.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.1 -.1 -.6 7.0 12.8 10.9 7.2
Structures.................... -2.5 -18.4 -4.6 18.0 9.6 1.2 -5.9 -5.6 2.2 -35.3 -23.9 -14.5 -14.6 -5.6 -4.0 3.9 -1.8 -1.4 -6.5
Equipment and software........ -5.2 -2.8 5.5 13.7 -.2 .8 -4.0 -16.4 -12.2 -4.1 -.2 1.2 3.7 1.7 .5 8.0 17.6 14.9 11.5
Residential..................... .4 4.9 7.5 -3.5 -8.0 .4 2.6 3.7 3.1 -2.5 8.7 8.9 4.2 6.8 4.5 4.5 21.9 7.9 2.1
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -5.2 -2.4 2.0 12.3 10.7 -2.7 -4.5 -13.4 -17.7 -9.8 4.4 8.7 4.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 9.9 20.5 3.2
Goods........................... -6.1 -4.0 1.9 13.8 18.3 -5.4 -5.4 -18.1 -18.9 -7.6 -2.6 12.0 4.3 -9.1 1.9 -1.7 8.6 21.3 4.0
Services........................ -3.1 1.4 2.3 8.5 -6.6 4.4 -2.0 -.6 -14.7 -15.0 22.8 1.6 4.5 9.4 -10.1 .2 12.7 18.9 1.3
Imports........................... -2.6 3.3 4.0 16.5 14.1 -1.6 -6.2 -8.6 -10.8 -3.8 8.4 17.1 4.1 8.2 -6.8 9.1 .8 16.4 2.0
Goods........................... -3.2 3.7 4.8 17.7 14.1 -1.6 -6.8 -12.2 -9.2 -3.2 6.3 21.9 4.8 7.4 -6.6 13.7 -1.5 18.3 1.9
Services........................ .4 1.4 -.1 10.7 14.1 -1.9 -3.1 12.5 -18.2 -6.9 19.2 -3.6 .7 12.2 -7.5 -10.9 13.4 7.5 2.3
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.8 3.8 3.3 5.5 -2.1 1.3 5.8 5.8 -4.1 7.4 4.6 4.0 2.5 7.1 -.4 7.4 1.8 -.1 2.0
Federal........................... 3.7 7.9 8.7 17.2 -8.2 -1.0 8.9 6.7 .0 9.9 8.4 10.5 3.9 18.2 -.2 23.5 1.2 .7 10.1
National defense................ 3.9 8.9 10.6 17.0 -7.4 1.7 7.7 2.6 2.4 14.2 8.2 9.5 4.5 22.1 -5.6 41.9 -1.3 3.0 15.1
Nondefense...................... 3.5 6.2 5.3 17.6 -9.7 -5.7 11.2 14.4 -4.3 2.6 8.7 12.2 2.9 11.4 10.5 -5.0 6.5 -3.7 .7
State and local................... 2.2 1.8 .5 .1 1.3 2.5 4.3 5.3 -6.1 6.1 2.7 .7 1.7 1.5 -.5 -.8 2.1 -.5 -2.6
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 1.4 1.8 3.2 3.3 1.3 2.6 1.4 .7 -.7 3.2 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.7 3.3 8.3 3.4 3.9
Gross domestic purchases.......... .7 2.8 3.3 7.2 .4 2.1 -.7 -.4 -.8 2.4 5.2 3.1 3.4 2.7 1.1 4.3 7.0 4.3 4.0
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.2 2.1 2.6 .9 .9 -.3 3.6 3.2 2.5 1.8 3.1 1.8 4.5 7.2 3.6 3.7
Gross national product (GNP)...... .5 2.1 3.3 6.6 -.7 3.0 -1.3 -.6 -1.9 4.6 2.6 1.3 3.8 2.0 1.5 3.3 8.3 5.5 .....
Disposable personal income........ 1.8 3.8 2.6 2.7 5.2 .6 -.3 -1.4 12.2 -4.4 10.6 4.1 -.9 .6 2.4 4.9 6.8 .5 4.3
Current-dollar measures:
GDP............................. 2.9 3.8 4.8 8.3 1.6 3.8 2.9 2.6 .3 3.9 5.4 3.9 4.4 3.1 4.3 4.2 10.0 5.7 6.8
Final sales of domestic product. 3.9 3.3 4.9 5.4 3.2 4.5 4.5 4.0 .9 4.8 3.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 5.1 4.4 10.1 5.0 6.5
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.7 4.2 5.3 8.9 2.9 3.7 1.9 1.9 .2 3.3 5.8 6.1 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.7 8.9 5.7 7.3
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 3.6 3.8 5.4 6.1 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.3 .7 4.1 4.2 5.0 3.5 4.8 5.3 4.8 9.1 5.0 7.1
GNP............................. 2.8 3.6 5.0 8.4 1.4 4.7 1.8 2.5 -.3 6.5 3.3 3.3 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.4 10.1 7.1 .....
Disposable personal income...... 3.8 5.2 4.5 4.7 7.2 2.4 2.9 1.1 12.8 -4.1 11.4 7.2 1.1 2.3 5.3 5.4 8.7 1.5 7.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:
Gross domestic product.......... .5 2.2 3.1 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.1 4.2
Percentage points at annual rates:
Personal consumption expenditures. 1.68 2.38 2.22 1.78 2.62 2.29 .28 1.52 1.27 4.20 2.92 1.81 1.39 1.57 1.80 2.34 4.89 2.29 2.65
Durable goods................... .36 .55 .61 -.89 .50 .06 .15 .80 .06 2.14 .14 .04 .43 .02 .04 1.38 2.23 .06 -.40
Motor vehicles and parts...... .19 .18 .17 -1.12 .28 .01 .04 .67 -.13 1.58 -.44 -.25 .29 -.33 -.16 .54 1.36 -.35 -.75
Furniture and household
equipment.................... .18 .30 .29 .19 .19 .07 .18 .16 .23 .40 .45 .23 .12 .24 .04 .54 .65 .30 .29
Other......................... -.01 .08 .16 .04 .03 -.02 -.07 -.02 -.04 .16 .13 .05 .02 .11 .17 .30 .21 .11 .05
Nondurable goods................ .37 .60 .76 1.11 .44 .72 .06 -.22 .57 .91 1.19 .07 .04 .90 1.13 .25 1.48 1.07 1.28
Food.......................... .12 .22 .37 .39 .09 .14 .22 -.03 .02 .14 .56 .19 .03 .22 .63 .23 .71 .32 .77
Clothing and shoes............ .06 .15 .14 .21 .19 .04 -.08 .01 .15 .19 .33 .01 -.01 .21 .09 .21 .27 .04 .40
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. .03 .04 .00 -.06 -.05 .25 .12 -.37 .09 .32 .10 -.20 -.09 .21 .08 -.40 .07 .39 -.01
Other......................... .15 .20 .26 .56 .21 .29 -.19 .17 .31 .27 .22 .07 .11 .25 .33 .20 .43 .33 .13
Services........................ .96 1.23 .85 1.55 1.67 1.51 .07 .94 .64 1.15 1.58 1.70 .92 .65 .63 .71 1.19 1.16 1.77
Housing....................... .28 .29 .24 .31 .27 .28 .33 .26 .21 .25 .35 .33 .28 .25 .26 .20 .25 .17 .22
Household operation........... .00 .04 .02 .51 .16 .41 -.27 -.31 -.05 -.17 .18 .36 -.14 .04 .04 -.13 .14 .05 .22
Electricity and gas......... -.02 .04 .00 .33 .07 .40 -.15 -.49 -.04 -.13 .20 .27 -.05 .09 .01 -.21 .06 .02 .15
Other household operation... .02 .00 .02 .18 .08 .01 -.12 .17 -.01 -.04 -.02 .09 -.09 -.05 .03 .08 .08 .03 .07
Transportation................ -.02 -.05 -.07 .08 -.01 .01 .03 -.01 -.15 -.14 .10 -.05 -.12 -.09 .01 -.11 -.06 -.08 -.01
Medical care.................. .45 .63 .59 .47 .41 .42 .35 .47 .62 .61 .75 .61 .51 .69 .59 .53 .60 .58 .51
Recreation.................... .06 .11 .06 .14 .10 .04 .09 -.02 .06 .15 .19 .07 .05 .09 .00 .10 .08 .12 .17
Other......................... .18 .20 .00 .05 .75 .34 -.45 .56 -.06 .45 .00 .38 .34 -.33 -.28 .13 .19 .33 .66
Gross private domestic investment. -1.47 -.18 .64 4.65 -1.84 -.36 -1.96 -2.92 -1.39 -2.98 1.60 .69 1.66 -.09 -.57 .73 2.17 2.19 1.12
Fixed investment................ -.54 -.60 .67 1.60 -.10 .13 -.45 -1.60 -.88 -1.83 -.41 .08 .08 .31 .16 .90 2.30 1.48 .84
Nonresidential................ -.56 -.82 .30 1.76 .28 .11 -.56 -1.76 -1.02 -1.71 -.81 -.33 -.12 -.01 -.06 .68 1.25 1.08 .73
Structures.................. -.08 -.59 -.12 .53 .29 .04 -.20 -.19 .07 -1.36 -.77 -.41 -.40 -.14 -.10 .09 -.04 -.03 -.15
Equipment and software...... -.47 -.23 .42 1.23 -.02 .07 -.37 -1.57 -1.09 -.35 -.03 .09 .28 .13 .04 .59 1.30 1.11 .88
Information processing
equipment and software... -.10 .02 .54 .96 .33 .58 -.20 -.84 -.58 -.15 .09 .37 .53 -.06 .64 .64 1.05 .70 .67
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. .02 .11 .24 .45 .12 .06 .16 -.22 -.26 .19 .22 .06 .28 .09 .21 .33 .39 .26 .12
Software................ -.04 -.04 .14 .18 .02 .20 -.07 -.24 -.16 -.21 -.05 .09 .21 -.06 .18 .15 .24 .23 .23
Other................... -.08 -.05 .16 .33 .19 .32 -.28 -.39 -.16 -.14 -.08 .21 .05 -.10 .26 .15 .41 .20 .32
Industrial equipment...... -.14 -.09 -.05 .14 .09 -.12 .04 -.53 -.30 -.22 .26 -.21 .00 -.04 -.10 -.02 .02 -.03 .07
Transportation equipment.. -.18 -.14 -.11 .04 -.31 -.36 -.27 .00 -.25 .24 -.34 -.24 -.26 .20 -.37 -.09 -.05 .25 -.01
Other equipment........... -.05 -.02 .04 .09 -.13 -.03 .06 -.21 .04 -.21 -.04 .17 .00 .04 -.13 .05 .28 .20 .15
Residential................... .02 .23 .36 -.16 -.38 .02 .12 .16 .14 -.12 .40 .41 .20 .32 .22 .22 1.05 .40 .11
Change in private inventories... -.93 .41 -.03 3.05 -1.74 -.49 -1.51 -1.32 -.51 -1.15 2.01 .61 1.58 -.40 -.74 -.17 -.13 .71 .27
Farm.......................... .02 -.03 .02 .88 -.36 .34 .03 -.34 .14 -.26 .39 -.64 .34 -.02 .15 -.09 -.03 .10 -.04
Nonfarm....................... -.94 .44 -.05 2.18 -1.38 -.83 -1.54 -.99 -.65 -.89 1.62 1.25 1.25 -.38 -.88 -.08 -.10 .61 .31
Net exports of goods and services. -.19 -.70 -.35 -.98 -.87 -.07 .46 -.25 -.42 -.50 -.65 -1.32 -.15 -1.47 .81 -1.34 .80 -.32 .02
Exports......................... -.58 -.24 .20 1.30 1.14 -.31 -.50 -1.54 -1.99 -1.02 .40 .80 .41 -.37 -.19 -.11 .92 1.81 .31
Goods......................... -.48 -.29 .13 1.03 1.36 -.45 -.44 -1.52 -1.50 -.54 -.19 .75 .28 -.64 .13 -.11 .56 1.29 .27
Services...................... -.10 .04 .07 .26 -.22 .14 -.06 -.02 -.48 -.47 .59 .05 .13 .27 -.31 .01 .36 .52 .04
Imports......................... .39 -.45 -.55 -2.27 -2.01 .24 .96 1.29 1.57 .52 -1.05 -2.12 -.56 -1.10 1.00 -1.24 -.12 -2.14 -.28
Goods......................... .39 -.42 -.55 -2.03 -1.70 .19 .88 1.57 1.10 .35 -.66 -2.20 -.55 -.83 .81 -1.51 .18 -1.96 -.23
Services...................... -.01 -.03 .00 -.24 -.32 .04 .08 -.28 .47 .16 -.39 .09 -.02 -.27 .19 .27 -.30 -.17 -.05
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. .48 .69 .62 .96 -.37 .22 .99 1.00 -.74 1.28 .85 .72 .46 1.29 -.07 1.36 .34 -.01 .37
Federal......................... .22 .48 .56 .96 -.51 -.07 .50 .38 .00 .57 .52 .64 .26 1.11 -.01 1.46 .09 .05 .67
National defense.............. .15 .35 .44 .61 -.29 .06 .27 .10 .09 .53 .33 .38 .19 .85 -.25 1.58 -.06 .13 .66
Consumption expenditures.... .13 .29 .40 .60 -.30 .11 .29 .00 .03 .50 .32 .22 .09 .93 -.19 1.39 -.20 .19 .34
Gross investment............ .02 .06 .04 .01 .01 -.05 -.01 .10 .06 .02 .01 .15 .10 -.07 -.06 .19 .13 -.05 .31
Nondefense.................... .07 .14 .12 .35 -.22 -.13 .23 .28 -.09 .04 .20 .27 .07 .26 .24 -.12 .15 -.09 .02
Consumption expenditures..... .07 .12 .11 .28 -.13 -.06 .19 .19 -.02 .06 .14 .15 .13 .26 .25 -.26 .23 -.13 .04
Gross investment............. .00 .02 .01 .07 -.09 -.07 .04 .09 -.07 -.02 .06 .11 -.06 .00 -.01 .14 -.08 .04 -.03
State and local................. .26 .21 .06 .01 .15 .29 .49 .62 -.74 .71 .33 .08 .20 .18 -.06 -.10 .25 -.06 -.30
Consumption expenditures.... .20 .13 .06 .16 .10 .21 .29 .22 .13 .21 .01 .17 .11 .19 .06 -.05 -.02 .04 .04
Gross investment............ .06 .08 -.01 -.15 .05 .08 .20 .40 -.88 .50 .31 -.09 .09 -.01 -.12 -.05 .27 -.10 -.33
Addenda:
Goods........................... -.71 .71 1.40 3.64 -1.19 .10 -1.17 -2.08 -1.40 1.38 2.54 -.37 2.12 -.92 1.37 .75 5.67 2.30 2.41
Services........................ 1.26 1.77 1.50 2.63 .80 1.95 .85 1.05 .77 1.61 2.25 2.38 1.37 2.02 .62 2.08 1.27 1.61 2.18
Structures...................... -.04 -.29 .23 .15 -.07 .03 .09 .38 -.65 -1.00 -.08 -.10 -.13 .19 -.02 .26 1.27 .23 -.42
Motor vehicle output............ -.17 .38 .09 -.62 -.73 -.47 -.53 .58 .05 .92 .39 .20 .37 -.18 -.23 .07 .82 .13 -.04
Final sales of computers........ .14 .10 .31 .47 .10 .19 .45 -.20 -.19 .22 .06 .06 .35 .26 .26 .25 .65 .29 .07
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Billions of current dollars Billions of chained (2000) dollars
------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Change from preceding
at annual rates at annual rates period
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------------------
2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04 2003 IV 03 I 04
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product....... 10,987.9 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,262.0 11,447.8 10,398.0 10,210.4 10,288.3 10,493.1 10,600.1 10,708.6 315.0 107.0 108.5
Personal consumption expenditures. 7,757.4 7,600.7 7,673.6 7,836.3 7,919.1 8,055.4 7,365.2 7,244.1 7,304.0 7,426.6 7,486.2 7,555.6 224.8 59.6 69.4
Durable goods................... 941.6 898.2 926.2 975.1 967.0 954.7 1,027.5 965.0 1,005.1 1,069.1 1,070.8 1,058.1 70.3 1.7 -12.7
Motor vehicles and parts...... 424.0 402.1 414.5 447.2 432.2 411.2 441.9 414.5 429.5 466.9 456.7 434.3 18.6 -10.2 -22.4
Furniture and household
equipment.................... 334.2 321.8 329.9 339.9 345.1 351.3 400.3 374.7 391.7 412.4 422.5 432.6 35.6 10.1 10.1
Other......................... 183.4 174.3 181.8 188.0 189.7 192.3 187.3 177.6 185.9 191.4 194.5 196.0 17.1 3.1 1.5
Nondurable goods................ 2,209.7 2,175.7 2,170.8 2,230.0 2,262.2 2,327.8 2,121.0 2,090.5 2,096.9 2,134.3 2,162.4 2,196.5 77.4 28.1 34.1
Food.......................... 1,064.1 1,037.4 1,049.7 1,074.9 1,094.2 1,122.8 994.7 979.6 985.4 1,002.8 1,010.9 1,030.8 36.5 8.1 19.9
Clothing and shoes............ 311.2 304.8 307.5 315.1 317.3 326.9 334.4 325.7 331.9 339.5 340.6 352.5 15.3 1.1 11.9
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods................. 210.3 222.4 196.9 209.2 212.7 232.9 198.9 203.1 192.9 194.7 204.8 204.4 -.4 10.1 -.4
Other......................... 624.1 611.1 616.7 630.8 637.9 645.2 593.6 582.2 587.4 598.3 606.8 610.2 26.3 8.5 3.4
Services........................ 4,606.2 4,526.8 4,576.6 4,631.2 4,689.9 4,772.9 4,225.7 4,190.7 4,208.4 4,237.2 4,266.4 4,311.1 83.9 29.2 44.7
Housing....................... 1,198.5 1,181.5 1,191.4 1,204.9 1,216.4 1,228.8 1,085.6 1,078.0 1,082.8 1,088.7 1,092.8 1,098.4 23.7 4.1 5.6
Household operation........... 425.9 422.6 424.2 428.5 428.3 438.1 396.2 396.6 393.4 396.8 398.0 403.7 1.7 1.2 5.7
Electricity and gas......... 164.2 163.1 163.9 165.8 164.0 171.0 145.1 148.0 143.1 144.5 144.9 148.7 -.1 .4 3.8
Other household operation... 261.7 259.5 260.3 262.7 264.3 267.1 251.2 248.5 250.5 252.4 253.2 255.0 2.0 .8 1.8
Transportation................ 293.6 292.3 292.8 295.3 294.1 293.0 278.2 281.6 278.8 277.2 275.1 274.7 -6.6 -2.1 -.4
Medical care.................. 1,302.4 1,263.1 1,289.2 1,315.1 1,342.3 1,370.9 1,190.0 1,169.3 1,182.4 1,196.9 1,211.4 1,224.2 57.9 14.5 12.8
Recreation.................... 319.2 312.6 317.2 321.3 325.7 333.4 291.1 287.5 290.1 291.9 294.8 299.2 6.3 2.9 4.4
Other......................... 1,066.5 1,054.7 1,061.9 1,066.2 1,083.1 1,108.7 983.3 976.6 979.7 984.3 992.7 1,009.5 .1 8.4 16.8
Gross private domestic investment. 1,670.6 1,605.3 1,624.3 1,689.1 1,763.5 1,802.3 1,638.0 1,581.6 1,599.9 1,656.1 1,714.6 1,744.7 66.0 58.5 30.1
Fixed investment................ 1,673.0 1,606.2 1,630.1 1,699.5 1,756.0 1,788.0 1,635.2 1,577.7 1,601.4 1,661.0 1,700.6 1,723.2 69.4 39.6 22.6
Nonresidential................ 1,110.6 1,071.8 1,086.9 1,124.4 1,159.2 1,181.2 1,125.5 1,087.3 1,105.8 1,139.5 1,169.4 1,189.8 32.9 29.9 20.4
Structures.................. 259.2 256.1 259.2 259.8 261.9 260.4 237.5 236.5 238.8 237.7 236.9 232.9 -11.5 -.8 -4.0
Equipment and software...... 851.3 815.8 827.7 864.6 897.3 920.8 893.5 855.0 871.6 907.7 939.7 965.5 46.8 32.0 25.8
Information processing
equipment and software... 463.8 436.2 451.2 477.0 490.7 506.3 522.7 487.2 506.4 537.7 559.5 580.9 63.4 21.8 21.4
Computers and peripheral
equipment.............. 97.2 86.8 93.5 101.8 106.8 108.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Software................ 181.1 173.4 177.6 185.1 188.4 194.4 182.4 174.4 178.6 185.0 191.5 198.1 14.9 6.5 6.6
Other................... 185.4 175.9 180.1 190.2 195.5 203.6 194.8 184.3 188.6 200.2 206.0 215.4 17.7 5.8 9.4
Industrial equipment...... 133.6 133.4 133.2 134.1 133.5 136.9 131.1 131.4 131.0 131.4 130.6 132.6 -5.0 -.8 2.0
Transportation equipment.. 121.3 119.8 115.3 117.8 132.2 132.8 116.6 117.4 115.1 113.7 120.1 119.8 -11.6 6.4 -.3
Other equipment........... 132.7 126.3 128.1 135.7 140.9 144.7 128.5 122.6 123.9 131.1 136.3 140.4 4.2 5.2 4.1
Residential................... 562.4 534.4 543.2 575.1 596.9 606.8 505.3 486.4 491.7 516.7 526.6 529.3 35.0 9.9 2.7
Change in private inventories... -2.4 -.9 -5.8 -10.5 7.5 14.4 -.7 1.6 -4.5 -9.1 9.0 15.3 -6.4 18.1 6.3
Farm.......................... -2.3 .2 -2.7 -4.3 -2.3 -3.5 -1.1 1.2 -2.0 -2.8 -.7 -1.9 2.2 2.1 -1.2
Nonfarm....................... -.1 -1.2 -3.0 -6.2 9.8 17.9 .5 .3 -2.4 -5.9 10.0 18.0 -8.8 15.9 8.0
Net exports of goods and services. -495.0 -487.6 -505.5 -490.6 -496.2 -520.2 -509.1 -490.0 -526.0 -505.2 -515.2 -514.6 -38.5 -10.0 .6
Exports......................... 1,048.9 1,021.0 1,020.2 1,048.5 1,105.8 1,128.7 1,034.7 1,012.4 1,009.6 1,033.7 1,083.1 1,091.6 20.5 49.4 8.5
Goods......................... 725.5 707.6 707.7 722.1 764.5 783.4 720.5 706.5 703.5 718.2 753.7 761.2 13.3 35.5 7.5
Services...................... 323.4 313.3 312.5 326.4 341.3 345.3 314.0 305.7 305.9 315.2 329.1 330.2 7.2 13.9 1.1
Imports......................... 1,543.8 1,508.5 1,525.7 1,539.0 1,602.0 1,648.9 1,543.8 1,502.5 1,535.7 1,538.9 1,598.3 1,606.2 59.1 59.4 7.9
Goods......................... 1,283.3 1,254.2 1,272.4 1,275.6 1,331.2 1,371.0 1,308.6 1,266.2 1,307.4 1,302.4 1,358.2 1,364.7 60.2 55.8 6.5
Services...................... 260.5 254.3 253.3 263.5 270.8 277.9 236.3 236.5 229.8 237.2 241.5 242.9 -.1 4.3 1.4
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............. 2,054.8 2,017.4 2,054.2 2,072.1 2,075.6 2,110.3 1,898.4 1,869.0 1,902.8 1,911.1 1,910.7 1,920.3 61.5 -.4 9.6
Federal......................... 757.2 723.0 764.7 769.6 771.5 802.6 704.3 675.5 712.0 714.3 715.5 732.9 56.3 1.2 17.4
National defense.............. 497.3 463.3 507.3 507.2 511.5 537.4 463.0 433.2 472.8 471.2 474.7 491.7 44.2 3.5 17.0
Consumption expenditures.... 437.3 408.6 447.5 443.7 449.5 466.4 401.9 377.3 411.8 406.9 411.7 420.5 39.7 4.8 8.8
Gross investment............ 60.0 54.7 59.8 63.5 62.0 71.0 61.0 55.7 60.8 64.5 63.0 71.9 4.4 -1.5 8.9
Nondefense.................... 259.9 259.7 257.4 262.4 260.0 265.2 241.4 242.4 239.3 243.1 240.8 241.3 12.2 -2.3 .5
Consumption expenditures.... 225.6 227.3 221.4 228.5 225.2 231.2 207.1 209.9 203.4 209.3 206.0 207.1 10.8 -3.3 1.1
Gross investment............ 34.3 32.4 36.0 33.8 34.8 34.1 34.3 32.4 36.0 33.8 34.9 34.1 1.4 1.1 -.8
State and local................. 1,297.6 1,294.5 1,289.6 1,302.5 1,304.0 1,307.7 1,194.6 1,193.8 1,191.4 1,197.4 1,195.9 1,188.1 5.5 -1.5 -7.8
Consumption expenditures.... 1,045.6 1,045.8 1,040.9 1,046.3 1,049.5 1,061.7 956.9 957.8 956.6 956.0 957.1 958.0 6.4 1.1 .9
Gross investment............ 252.0 248.7 248.7 256.2 254.5 246.0 237.8 236.0 234.7 241.5 238.8 229.9 -.8 -2.7 -8.9
Residual.......................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... -18.6 -4.5 -11.5 -27.4 -31.1 -35.0 ..... ..... .....
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product. 10,990.3 10,736.7 10,852.4 11,117.4 11,254.5 11,433.4 10,395.0 10,206.4 10,289.5 10,497.7 10,586.4 10,687.8 318.1 88.7 101.4
Gross domestic purchases........ 11,482.8 11,223.4 11,352.2 11,597.5 11,758.2 11,968.0 10,903.6 10,697.6 10,809.9 10,995.4 11,111.5 11,219.9 352.1 116.1 108.4
Final sales to domestic
purchasers..................... 11,485.2 11,224.3 11,357.9 11,608.0 11,750.7 11,953.6 10,900.6 10,693.5 10,811.1 11,000.1 11,097.8 11,198.9 355.2 97.7 101.1
Gross domestic product.......... 10,987.9 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,262.0 11,447.8 10,398.0 10,210.4 10,288.3 10,493.1 10,600.1 10,708.6 315.0 107.0 108.5
Plus: Income receipts from
the rest of the world.......... 317.3 296.8 299.5 312.1 360.7 ..... 301.6 283.4 285.6 296.1 341.4 ..... 11.6 45.3 .....
Less: Income payments to
the rest of the world.......... 273.6 269.0 266.2 274.3 284.8 ..... 260.1 256.4 253.8 260.7 269.6 ..... -8.2 8.9 .....
Equals: Gross national product.. 11,031.6 10,763.7 10,880.0 11,144.8 11,337.9 ..... 10,439.5 10,237.6 10,320.2 10,528.6 10,671.7 ..... 334.5 143.1 .....
Net domestic product............ 9,677.0 9,430.1 9,543.3 9,797.9 9,936.7 10,112.6 9,087.5 8,903.4 8,983.4 9,181.7 9,281.3 9,381.9 289.0 99.6 100.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components that
exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the
economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure
the component's relative importance or its contribution to the
growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of
the contributions to percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 4.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP). 2.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.5
Personal consumption expenditures... 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 2.5 .5 .4 .7 2.9 2.0 1.7 2.8 .5 1.8 1.0 3.2
Durable goods..................... -1.9 -2.9 -3.7 -.5 -2.5 -1.0 -1.3 -3.1 -2.8 -2.2 -3.5 -2.9 -3.0 -3.0 -4.4 -3.9 -4.0 -3.9 -.3
Nondurable goods.................. 1.5 .5 2.1 3.7 3.4 1.4 1.3 3.7 -.9 -4.3 -.1 5.7 1.4 1.0 5.1 -2.1 3.8 .5 5.3
Services.......................... 3.2 2.7 2.9 1.7 2.1 2.6 5.1 3.2 1.8 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9
Gross private domestic investment... 1.1 .0 .9 1.2 1.9 .8 .3 1.3 2.3 .0 -.7 -.7 -1.0 1.6 1.3 .0 2.0 3.6 1.7
Fixed investment.................. 1.1 .1 1.1 1.2 1.9 .9 .1 1.6 2.4 .0 -.8 -.7 -.7 1.7 1.9 .0 2.1 3.7 1.9
Nonresidential.................. -.2 -.9 -.2 .3 1.4 .0 -1.8 .2 .6 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 .4 -.3 -1.2 1.6 1.8 .6
Structures.................... 5.5 1.4 2.1 3.6 4.5 5.0 6.5 6.9 6.3 1.2 -.9 .5 .3 1.1 3.8 1.1 2.7 4.7 4.5
Equipment and software........ -2.2 -1.7 -.9 -.8 .4 -1.7 -4.7 -2.1 -1.6 -2.1 -1.4 -2.1 -2.1 .2 -1.6 -1.8 1.2 1.0 -.5
Residential..................... 4.6 2.4 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.4 5.3 5.1 7.0 2.9 .3 1.1 .9 4.5 6.4 2.2 3.1 7.5 4.6
Change in private inventories..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports........................... -.4 -.4 2.1 2.1 .9 .4 .1 -1.2 -2.1 -3.6 -1.2 2.9 3.3 .6 3.6 .8 1.6 2.6 5.2
Goods........................... -.7 -.7 2.0 1.6 .3 .4 -.1 -1.6 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 2.1 3.3 .6 3.5 1.7 -.2 3.6 6.0
Services........................ .4 .3 2.2 3.5 2.5 .6 .6 -.3 -1.0 -3.0 -.9 4.6 3.2 .6 3.8 -1.3 5.7 .4 3.5
Imports........................... -2.5 -1.0 3.6 .7 4.2 .7 -2.8 -6.0 -5.3 -9.8 -1.6 10.5 3.7 .8 11.7 -4.1 2.7 .9 10.0
Goods........................... -3.0 -1.7 2.9 1.2 4.5 .8 -3.7 -6.6 -6.6 -11.1 -2.1 10.7 2.7 .5 11.8 -6.8 2.6 .3 10.4
Services........................ .2 2.5 7.4 -2.0 2.5 .3 2.1 -3.0 1.4 -2.9 .7 9.3 8.6 2.0 11.3 10.4 3.3 3.8 8.5
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment............... 2.6 2.6 2.9 1.7 4.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.4 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.8 7.3 .1 1.7 .7 4.8
Federal........................... 2.1 2.7 2.5 -1.1 5.0 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.7 5.9 2.3 1.2 -.5 7.7 1.4 1.3 .3 6.4
National defense................ 2.2 2.5 2.6 -.2 3.6 .9 3.6 1.6 2.4 .8 5.2 2.3 1.8 -.6 8.0 1.2 1.3 .4 5.8
Nondefense...................... 1.9 3.2 2.3 -2.6 7.5 2.7 -.7 1.8 2.3 3.6 7.3 2.1 .2 -.4 7.2 1.6 1.3 .1 7.5
State and local................... 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.2 4.2 3.2 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.3 2.4 3.8 2.7 3.0 7.1 -.7 2.0 1.0 3.8
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product... 2.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.5
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.4 .4 1.8 1.3 3.2
Final sales to domestic
purchasers....................... 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 .9 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.5 .4 1.8 1.4 3.3
Gross national product (GNP)...... 2.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.7 1.5 .....
Implicit price deflators:
GDP............................. 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.9 .7 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.5
Gross domestic purchases........ 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.5 1.6 2.6 2.3 1.0 .8 .6 2.9 1.2 1.8 3.4 .4 1.8 1.3 3.2
GNP............................. 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.9 .7 2.0 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 5.--Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 100.506 102.710 105.918 104.008 104.801 106.887 107.977 109.083
Personal consumption expenditures.......... 102.452 105.951 109.286 107.489 108.378 110.197 111.081 112.111
Durable goods............................ 104.144 110.868 119.017 111.779 116.420 123.834 124.037 122.559
Nondurable goods......................... 101.852 104.949 108.926 107.358 107.685 109.607 111.053 112.801
Services................................. 102.382 105.420 107.555 106.664 107.115 107.849 108.591 109.730
Gross private domestic investment.......... 91.650 90.580 94.386 91.135 92.186 95.424 98.800 100.533
Fixed investment......................... 96.826 93.258 97.392 93.968 95.378 98.932 101.290 102.635
Nonresidential......................... 95.517 88.683 91.349 88.248 89.751 92.485 94.913 96.570
Structures........................... 97.465 79.492 75.828 75.523 76.244 75.906 75.638 74.372
Equipment and software............... 94.825 92.144 97.234 93.047 94.851 98.779 102.260 105.072
Residential............................ 100.351 105.228 113.073 108.828 110.021 115.616 117.827 118.441
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 94.773 92.512 94.385 92.353 92.097 94.290 98.800 99.572
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.377 100.609 104.612 101.810 104.059 104.277 108.302 108.838
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 102.750 106.697 110.271 108.563 110.527 111.008 110.986 111.540
Federal.................................. 103.746 111.958 121.690 116.713 123.025 123.406 123.616 126.621
State and local.......................... 102.248 104.047 104.533 104.463 104.248 104.779 104.642 103.963
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product.......... 101.441 103.242 106.501 104.569 105.420 107.553 108.462 109.501
Gross domestic purchases................. 100.672 103.482 106.935 104.915 106.016 107.836 108.974 110.037
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.575 103.998 107.502 105.459 106.619 108.483 109.446 110.443
Gross national product................... 100.462 102.527 105.921 103.873 104.711 106.825 108.277 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 6.--Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
[Index numbers, 2000=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product............. 102.376 103.949 105.686 105.163 105.440 105.870 106.270 106.923
Personal consumption expenditures.......... 102.039 103.429 105.325 104.927 105.065 105.522 105.787 106.620
Durable goods............................ 98.086 95.208 91.682 93.074 92.147 91.207 90.298 90.232
Nondurable goods......................... 101.530 102.075 104.179 104.079 103.529 104.488 104.618 105.981
Services................................. 103.168 105.946 109.007 108.028 108.758 109.306 109.935 110.719
Gross private domestic investment.......... 101.070 101.119 102.064 101.586 101.589 102.093 102.988 103.412
Fixed investment......................... 101.087 101.155 102.296 101.808 101.796 102.319 103.260 103.758
Nonresidential......................... 99.770 98.859 98.669 98.579 98.293 98.678 99.124 99.274
Structures........................... 105.518 106.974 109.168 108.268 108.559 109.288 110.556 111.784
Equipment and software............... 97.786 96.121 95.275 95.404 94.961 95.251 95.483 95.366
Residential............................ 104.628 107.105 111.263 109.881 110.485 111.321 113.363 114.646
Change in private inventories............ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports of goods and services.............. 99.628 99.273 101.354 100.842 101.044 101.434 102.094 103.400
Imports of goods and services.............. 97.537 96.519 100.031 100.435 99.381 100.042 100.265 102.693
Government consumption expenditures and
gross investment.......................... 102.587 105.207 108.246 107.951 107.966 108.433 108.635 109.904
Federal.................................. 102.065 104.858 107.507 107.032 107.399 107.755 107.842 109.525
State and local.......................... 102.853 105.382 108.627 108.435 108.246 108.778 109.049 110.067
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product.......... 102.381 103.955 105.723 105.198 105.474 105.906 106.313 106.979
Gross domestic purchases................. 101.974 103.374 105.327 104.934 105.031 105.496 105.847 106.691
Final sales to domestic purchasers....... 101.978 103.379 105.362 104.968 105.062 105.531 105.888 106.744
Gross national product................... 102.372 103.936 105.684 105.156 105.438 105.872 106.268 .....
Implicit price deflators:
Gross domestic product................. 102.373 103.945 105.673 105.146 105.427 105.851 106.244 106.902
Final sales of domestic product........ 102.381 103.955 105.726 105.196 105.471 105.904 106.311 106.976
Gross domestic purchases............... 101.971 103.370 105.312 104.915 105.017 105.476 105.820 106.668
Final sales to domestic purchasers..... 101.978 103.379 105.363 104.964 105.058 105.526 105.883 106.740
Gross national product................. 102.368 103.932 105.671 105.138 105.425 105.853 106.243 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change from Preceding Year
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.1 3.5 1.9 -.2 3.3 2.7 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .5 2.2 3.1
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.1 2.8 2.0 .2 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.7 3.4 3.8 5.0 5.1 4.7 2.5 3.4 3.1
Durable goods........................ 6.0 2.2 -.3 -5.6 5.9 7.8 8.4 4.4 7.8 8.6 11.3 11.7 7.3 4.1 6.5 7.4
Nondurable goods..................... 3.3 2.8 1.6 -.2 2.0 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 4.0 4.6 3.8 1.9 3.0 3.8
Services............................. 4.0 3.0 2.9 1.7 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.5 2.4 3.0 2.0
Gross private domestic investment...... 2.4 4.0 -3.4 -8.1 8.1 8.9 13.6 3.1 8.9 12.4 9.8 7.8 5.7 -8.4 -1.2 4.2
Fixed investment..................... 3.3 3.0 -2.1 -6.5 5.9 8.6 9.3 6.5 9.0 9.2 10.2 8.3 6.5 -3.2 -3.7 4.4
Nonresidential..................... 5.2 5.6 .5 -5.4 3.2 8.7 9.2 10.5 9.3 12.1 11.1 9.2 8.7 -4.5 -7.2 3.0
Structures....................... .6 2.0 1.5 -11.1 -6.0 -.7 1.8 6.4 5.6 7.3 5.1 -.4 6.8 -2.5 -18.4 -4.6
Equipment and software........... 7.5 7.3 .0 -2.6 7.3 12.5 11.9 12.0 10.6 13.8 13.3 12.7 9.4 -5.2 -2.8 5.5
Residential........................ -1.0 -3.0 -8.6 -9.6 13.8 8.2 9.6 -3.2 8.0 1.9 7.6 6.0 .8 .4 4.9 7.5
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 16.0 11.5 9.0 6.6 6.9 3.2 8.7 10.1 8.4 11.9 2.4 4.3 8.7 -5.2 -2.4 2.0
Goods.............................. 18.8 11.9 8.4 6.9 7.5 3.3 9.7 11.7 8.8 14.3 2.2 3.8 11.2 -6.1 -4.0 1.9
Services........................... 9.0 10.3 10.5 6.0 5.5 3.2 6.3 6.3 7.2 5.9 2.9 5.6 2.9 -3.1 1.4 2.3
Imports.............................. 3.9 4.4 3.6 -.6 7.0 8.8 11.9 8.0 8.7 13.6 11.6 11.5 13.1 -2.6 3.3 4.0
Goods.............................. 4.0 4.3 3.0 -.1 9.3 10.1 13.3 9.0 9.3 14.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 -3.2 3.7 4.8
Services........................... 3.4 4.9 6.5 -2.6 -2.6 2.9 5.7 3.3 5.5 9.4 11.4 6.9 11.1 .4 1.4 -.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 1.3 2.6 3.2 1.1 .5 -.9 .0 .5 1.0 1.9 1.9 3.9 2.1 2.8 3.8 3.3
Federal.............................. -1.6 1.5 2.0 -.2 -1.7 -4.2 -3.7 -2.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 2.2 .9 3.7 7.9 8.7
National defense................... -.5 -.5 .0 -1.1 -5.0 -5.6 -4.9 -3.8 -1.4 -2.8 -2.1 1.9 -.5 3.9 8.9 10.6
Nondefense......................... -5.1 8.3 8.3 2.4 6.9 -.7 -1.2 -.4 -.7 2.6 .7 2.8 3.5 3.5 6.2 5.3
State and local...................... 3.7 3.4 4.1 2.1 2.2 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.6 3.6 4.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 .5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.3 3.4 2.1 .1 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.4 1.8 3.2
Gross domestic purchases............. 3.2 3.0 1.4 -.8 3.3 3.2 4.4 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.4 .7 2.8 3.3
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 3.4 2.8 1.6 -.6 3.1 3.2 3.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.4 4.5 1.6 2.4 3.4
Gross national product............... 4.2 3.5 2.0 -.3 3.3 2.7 3.9 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 3.7 .5 2.1 3.3
Real disposable personal income...... 4.3 2.8 1.9 .5 3.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.8 3.0 4.8 1.8 3.8 2.6
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.4 .6 1.6 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.9
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4
GDP................................ 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.7
GDP excluding food and energy...... 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4
Personal consumption expenditures.. 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.7 .9 1.7 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP).... 4.8 3.5 2.2 1.9 .2 .0 .0 1.2 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.4 3.6 4.3 4.9
Personal consumption expenditures...... 4.6 4.5 4.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.7 4.0 4.3
Durable goods........................ 5.9 5.2 4.7 -.4 4.5 3.2 9.4 9.3 7.0 8.1 1.8 1.5 5.6 11.0 11.1 9.6
Nondurable goods..................... 4.1 4.3 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.9 4.7 4.9 5.1
Services............................. 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.1 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.9
Gross private domestic investment...... 11.2 5.8 1.4 .3 -10.1 -9.7 -13.5 -8.6 -3.3 1.6 6.5 2.8 2.8 3.6 7.4 10.3
Fixed investment..................... 7.7 5.5 5.1 1.6 -3.0 -4.2 -7.0 -7.0 -4.6 -3.1 .2 1.1 2.4 6.1 8.1 9.2
Nonresidential..................... 9.9 7.9 7.8 3.1 -4.0 -6.5 -10.2 -10.8 -8.2 -6.4 -2.8 -1.2 1.3 4.6 7.4 9.4
Structures....................... 6.3 9.6 8.8 5.3 -.4 -2.1 -12.4 -17.0 -19.0 -22.6 -14.9 -9.8 -5.3 -1.9 -.9 -1.5
Equipment and software........... 11.1 7.3 7.5 2.4 -5.2 -8.2 -9.4 -8.5 -4.0 .1 1.6 1.8 3.4 6.7 10.0 12.9
Residential........................ 1.9 -.7 -1.9 -2.2 -.4 2.4 1.7 3.2 4.4 4.7 7.1 6.1 5.0 9.2 9.5 8.8
Change in private inventories........ ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Net exports of goods and services...... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Exports.............................. 10.2 10.1 6.5 3.7 -2.8 -9.8 -11.5 -9.5 -4.2 1.6 3.3 1.7 -.7 .6 6.4 7.8
Goods.............................. 12.6 13.7 8.5 4.8 -3.5 -12.2 -12.7 -12.1 -4.9 1.2 .8 2.0 -1.3 -.3 7.2 7.7
Services........................... 4.5 1.6 1.8 .9 -1.3 -3.5 -8.3 -3.0 -2.5 2.6 9.3 1.1 .7 2.6 4.8 8.0
Imports.............................. 14.0 13.8 11.2 5.2 -.9 -6.8 -7.4 -4.0 2.2 6.2 9.4 5.3 3.5 2.6 4.5 6.9
Goods.............................. 14.6 14.1 11.3 5.3 -2.1 -7.5 -7.9 -4.8 3.3 7.1 9.9 6.4 4.6 2.9 5.4 7.8
Services........................... 11.1 12.4 10.6 4.7 5.1 -3.3 -4.5 .5 -3.3 1.9 6.7 .2 -1.8 1.2 .1 2.7
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment.................. 3.5 1.7 .4 2.6 2.7 2.1 3.6 3.3 2.9 4.6 4.5 3.3 4.1 3.9 2.1 2.7
Federal.............................. 4.6 .3 -2.2 3.8 1.4 3.6 6.3 6.2 7.1 8.2 10.1 7.9 10.9 10.2 5.9 8.5
National defense................... 3.6 -1.6 -3.5 4.4 1.0 3.6 6.6 6.8 8.5 9.1 10.9 7.2 14.4 12.7 8.0 13.5
Nondefense......................... 6.3 3.9 .3 2.7 2.0 3.5 5.7 5.1 4.6 6.5 8.7 9.2 4.7 5.6 1.9 -.5
State and local...................... 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.0 3.3 1.4 2.3 1.9 .8 2.8 1.6 .8 .5 .5 .0 -.5
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product...... 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 4.0 4.4 4.7
Gross domestic purchases............. 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.2 .3 .0 .1 1.6 2.5 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.8 3.8 4.2 4.9
Final sales to domestic purchasers... 4.9 4.2 3.6 2.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.8 4.1 4.2 4.7
Gross national product............... 4.8 3.5 2.4 1.8 .1 -.2 .2 1.1 1.6 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.7 3.8 4.6 .....
Real disposable personal income...... 4.9 5.7 4.4 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.3 4.0 5.4 2.2 3.5 1.6 1.7 3.7 3.6 4.1
Price indexes:
Gross domestic purchases........... 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy................... 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5
GDP................................ 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7
GDP excluding food and energy...... 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4
Personal consumption expenditures.. 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product..................... 10,100.8 10,480.8 10,987.9 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,262.0 11,447.8
Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the
world..................................... 319.0 299.1 317.3 296.8 299.5 312.1 360.7 .....
Less: Income payments to the rest of the
world..................................... 283.8 277.6 273.6 269.0 266.2 274.3 284.8 .....
Equals: Gross national product............. 10,135.9 10,502.3 11,031.6 10,763.7 10,880.0 11,144.8 11,337.9 .....
Less: Consumption of fixed capital......... 1,266.9 1,288.6 1,310.9 1,305.7 1,303.4 1,309.1 1,325.3 1,335.2
Less: Statistical discrepancy.............. -112.2 -77.2 17.8 23.2 -8.3 38.2 18.3 .....
Equals: National income.................... 8,981.2 9,290.8 9,702.8 9,434.8 9,584.9 9,797.5 9,994.2 .....
Compensation of employees................ 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,198.1 6,115.8 6,164.8 6,229.4 6,282.4 6,379.1
Wage and salary accruals............... 4,942.9 4,974.6 5,095.6 5,034.6 5,070.8 5,118.8 5,158.3 5,220.2
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 997.6 1,044.5 1,102.4 1,081.2 1,093.9 1,110.6 1,124.0 1,158.9
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.6 797.7 846.9 813.5 838.8 860.9 874.3 894.3
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 163.1 173.0 164.2 163.2 153.4 157.0 183.0 188.4
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.4 904.2 1,069.9 927.1 1,022.8 1,124.2 1,205.6 .....
Net interest and miscellaneous payments.. 568.4 582.4 583.2 589.3 581.7 579.9 581.8 588.4
Taxes on production and imports less
subsidies............................... 674.5 721.8 740.4 729.4 725.2 745.2 761.8 778.0
Business current transfer payments....... 92.5 89.8 95.2 90.1 92.5 97.1 101.2 102.9
Current surplus of government
enterprises............................. 1.2 2.8 5.0 6.3 5.8 3.7 4.1 3.4
Addendum:
Gross domestic income.................... 10,213.0 10,558.0 10,970.0 10,712.7 10,855.0 11,068.8 11,243.6 .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 10.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
---------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal income\1\......................... 8,713.1 8,910.3 9,203.7 9,048.7 9,145.9 9,256.3 9,363.9 9,492.8
Compensation of employees, received...... 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,198.1 6,114.4 6,166.2 6,229.4 6,282.4 6,377.6
Wage and salary disbursements.......... 4,942.9 4,974.6 5,095.6 5,033.2 5,072.2 5,118.8 5,158.3 5,218.7
Supplements to wages and salaries...... 997.6 1,044.5 1,102.4 1,081.2 1,093.9 1,110.6 1,124.0 1,158.9
Proprietors' income with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments............................. 770.6 797.7 846.9 813.5 838.8 860.9 874.3 894.3
Farm................................... 25.0 14.3 19.5 13.0 20.0 21.5 23.3 20.8
Nonfarm................................ 745.6 783.4 827.4 800.5 818.8 839.4 850.9 873.5
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment.................. 163.1 173.0 164.2 163.2 153.4 157.0 183.0 188.4
Personal income receipts on assets....... 1,374.9 1,378.5 1,393.3 1,388.6 1,390.2 1,389.2 1,405.2 1,413.9
Personal interest income............... 1,003.7 982.4 964.6 970.6 964.9 957.0 965.7 966.4
Personal dividend income............... 371.2 396.2 428.7 418.0 425.3 432.2 439.5 447.6
Personal current transfer receipts....... 1,192.6 1,292.2 1,377.5 1,337.6 1,369.7 1,398.7 1,403.8 1,423.1
Less: Contributions for government
social insurance........................ 728.5 750.3 776.2 768.7 772.3 779.0 784.7 804.5
Less: Personal current taxes............... 1,243.7 1,053.1 990.6 1,009.4 1,000.2 938.5 1,014.5 988.0
Equals: Disposable personal income......... 7,469.4 7,857.2 8,213.1 8,039.2 8,145.8 8,317.8 8,349.4 8,504.8
Less: Personal outlays..................... 7,342.2 7,674.0 8,043.0 7,888.3 7,956.7 8,118.5 8,208.6 8,343.5
Equals: Personal saving.................... 127.2 183.2 170.0 151.0 189.0 199.3 140.8 161.4
Personal saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income.............. 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.9
Addendum:
Disposable personal income, billions of
chained (2000) dollars\2\............... 7,320.2 7,596.7 7,797.8 7,662.0 7,753.5 7,882.9 7,893.0 7,977.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for
government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments,
business current transfer payments, current surplus of government
enterprises, and wage accruals less disbursements, plus personal
income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts.
2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.
Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
[Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2001 2002 2003 II 00 III 00 IV 00 I 01 II 01 III 01 IV 01 I 02 II 02 III 02 IV 02 I 03 II 03 III 03 IV 03 I 04
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product (GDP) and
related aggregates:
GDP............................... .5 2.2 3.1 6.4 -.5 2.1 -.2 -.6 -1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.1 4.2
Goods............................. -2.0 2.1 4.3 10.5 -3.3 .2 -3.4 -6.0 -4.1 4.1 7.7 -1.1 6.5 -2.8 4.3 2.2 18.3 7.1 7.4
Services.......................... 2.3 3.1 2.6 4.8 1.5 3.6 1.6 1.9 1.4 2.9 3.9 4.2 2.4 3.5 1.0 3.6 2.1 2.8 3.8
Structures........................ -.4 -3.0 2.4 1.6 -.7 .4 1.0 4.0 -6.4 -9.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 2.1 -.3 2.8 13.9 2.4 -4.4
Motor vehicle output.............. -4.8 11.4 2.7 -14.7 -18.1 -12.6 -14.6 19.1 1.5 30.2 11.3 5.5 10.8 -4.9 -6.4 2.1 26.6 3.7 -1.3
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output........................... .7 1.9 3.1 7.4 .3 2.7 .3 -1.3 -1.4 1.1 4.5 1.8 3.1 1.5 2.3 3.1 7.6 4.2 4.4
Final sales of computers\1\....... 13.6 11.1 41.0 49.6 9.2 18.6 52.2 -17.1 -17.9 27.2 5.0 6.6 50.9 34.8 34.6 32.8 93.4 32.3 7.1
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ .4 2.1 2.8 6.0 -.6 1.9 -.7 -.4 -1.1 1.8 4.7 1.8 3.0 1.0 1.7 2.8 7.6 3.9 4.1
Farm gross value added\2\......... -4.2 1.9 3.2 5.2 4.8 -18.2 -2.0 -15.8 -16.6 100.1 -64.2 94.9 50.5 -1.5 -39.5 59.0 -3.2 -16.6 -1.5
Nonfarm business gross value
added\3\......................... .1 2.3 3.7 7.5 -.8 2.2 -.8 -1.0 -2.5 1.6 6.7 .8 4.0 1.6 2.4 3.8 10.4 4.2 4.9
Price indexes:
GDP............................... 2.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.5
GDP excluding food and energy..... 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 .7 1.3 1.4 2.1
GDP excluding final sales of
computers........................ 2.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.9 3.7 3.4 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.6
Gross domestic purchases.......... 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.0 .5 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.4 .4 1.8 1.3 3.2
Gross domestic purchases excluding
food and energy.................. 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 .9 1.3 1.5 2.3
Gross domestic purchases excluding
final sales of computers to
domestic purchasers.............. 2.3 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.6 1.3 .8 1.2 2.6 1.8 2.0 3.6 .5 2.0 1.5 3.4
Personal consumption expenditures. 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 2.5 .5 .4 .7 2.9 2.0 1.7 2.8 .5 1.8 1.0 3.2
Personal consumption expenditures
excluding food and energy........ 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.3 .9 1.5 2.8 1.9 1.3 2.5 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.5 .9 .8 1.0 1.2 2.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of
households and institutions, and of general government.
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.
Explanatory Note: NIPA Measures of Quantities and Prices
Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in
the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and
price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the
reference year -- at present, the year 2000 -- equal to 100.
Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates
weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a
Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for
consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2001-02
annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2001 and 2002 as weights, and the 2001-02 annual
percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2001 and 2002 as weights. These annual changes are
"chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in
Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year. (BEA also publishes a measure of the
price level known as the implicit price deflator (IPD), which is calculated as the ratio of the
current-dollar value to the corresponding chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100. The values of the IPD
are very close to the values of the corresponding "chain-type" price index.)
Index numbers of quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this
release in tables 5 and 6. Percent changes from the preceding period are presented in tables 1, 4, 7, and 8.
Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2.
Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form,
designated "chained (2000) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates, which are presented in
table 3, are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2000 by a corresponding quantity index
number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in
2000 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2001, then the chained (2000) dollar
value of this component in 2001 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from
chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small
and due to rounding.
Chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to the chained-dollar
estimate of GDP (or to any intermediate aggregate). This is because the relative prices used as weights
for any period other than the reference year differ from those of the reference year. A measure of the
extent of such differences is provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP
(or other major aggregate) and the sum of the most detailed components in the table. For periods close to
the reference year, when there usually has not been much change in the relative prices that are used as
weights, the residuals tend to be small, and the chained-dollar estimates can be used to approximate the
contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed estimates. For periods further from the reference
year, the residuals tend to be larger, and the chained-dollar estimates are less useful for analyses of
contributions to growth. Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in table 2 provide a better
measure of the composition of GDP growth. In particular, for components for which relative prices are
changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just
a few years from the reference year.
Reference: "Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," November
2003 Survey, pp. 8-16.
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