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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29, 2015
Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2015 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 29, 2015. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. _____ BOX. Upcoming Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts The annual revision of the national income and product accounts will be released along with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2015 on July 30. In addition to the regular revision of the estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2015, some series will be revised back further (for more information, see the Technical Note). The June Survey of Current Business will contain an article that previews the annual revision and the August Survey will contain an article that describes the results. ______ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components" _______ The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter reflected a deceleration in PCE, downturns in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent. Nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.7 percent in the fourth. Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 23.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 7.8 percent, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent. Real exports of goods and services decreased 7.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 10.4 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.3 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 0.7 percent, compared with a decrease of 12.2 percent. Nondefense increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.74 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $110.3 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $80.0 billion in the fourth quarter and of $82.2 billion in the third. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- decreased 0.5 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent in the fourth. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the fourth. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $148.6 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $146.9 billion in the fourth. The small acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an acceleration in government social benefits to persons that was partly offset by a downturn in proprietors’ income. Personal current taxes increased $16.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $44.3 billion in the fourth. Disposable personal income increased $132.2 billion, or 4.1 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $102.5 billion, or 3.2 percent, in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 6.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent. Personal outlays increased $7.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $127.3 billion in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $727.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with $603.4 billion in the fourth. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.6 percent in the fourth. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the production of goods and services in the United States -- increased 0.1 percent, or $6.3 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $17,710.0 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.4 percent, or $103.9 billion. ________ BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." _______ BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- May 29, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Second Estimate) Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2015 (Preliminary Estimate) Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions, which are typically released in late July. Annual revisions, cover at a minimum the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of real and current- dollar GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points. Larger average revisions for the latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The average revision (with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average revisions to the The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or decelerating about 75 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth about 83 percent of the time. Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of compared regard to sign revisions without regard to sign ________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________ Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4 Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .4 Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2 Advance to latest.................... -0.1 1.2 1.0 ____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________ Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.5 0.4 Advance to third..................... .2 .6 .4 Second to third...................... .1 .3 .2 Advance to latest.................... .1 1.3 1.0 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2013.