News Release
These data have been superseded. Please see our latest releases for current estimates and contact information.
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2014 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United
States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of
2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third
quarter, real GDP increased 5.0 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based
on more complete data, will be released on February 27, 2015.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed
investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset
by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in
imports, a downturn in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed
investment and in exports that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment and an
acceleration in PCE.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.6 percent.
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FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.
Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes
are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars.
Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this
release. For information on revisions, see "The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
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Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 3.2 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 7.4 percent, compared with an
increase of 9.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5
percent. Services increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 8.9 percent in the third. Investment in nonresidential structures increased 2.6 percent,
compared with an increase of 4.8 percent. Investment in equipment decreased 1.9 percent, in contrast to
an increase of 11.0 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 7.1 percent,
compared with an increase of 8.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 4.1 percent,
compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of 4.5 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 8.9 percent, in contrast
to a decrease of 0.9 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.5 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.9 percent in the third. National defense decreased
12.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 16.0 percent. Nondefense increased 1.7 percent, compared
with an increase of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 0.82 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 0.03 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $113.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $82.2 billion in the third
quarter and $84.8 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $136.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $131.6 billion in the third. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected
accelerations in wages and salaries and in proprietors’ income that were partly offset by a deceleration in
government social benefits to persons and a larger decrease in personal interest income.
Personal current taxes increased $32.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$26.5 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $104.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $105.1 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal
income increased 3.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.
Personal outlays increased $120.4 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$143.4 billion in the third.
Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $601.7 billion in the
fourth quarter, compared with $617.2 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.7 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the production of goods and services in the United
States -- increased 2.5 percent, or $110.9 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $17,710.7 billion. In
the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.4 percent, or $271.6 billion.
2014 GDP
Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2014 (that is, from the 2013 annual level to the 2014 annual
level), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2013.
The increase in real GDP in 2014 reflected positive contributions from personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, state and
local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative
contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of
GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in 2014 reflected an acceleration in nonresidential fixed
investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory
investment, in PCE, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an
acceleration in imports and a deceleration in residential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in 2014, compared with an
increase of 1.3 percent in 2013.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $652.6 billion, in 2014 to a level of $17,420.7
billion, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent, or $604.9 billion, in 2013.
During 2014 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2014),
real GDP increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent during 2013. The price index
for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent during 2014, compared with an increase of 1.3
percent during 2013.?
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BOX.
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis
of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on
Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
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BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- February 27, 2015 at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 (Second Estimate)
* * *
Release dates in 2015
Gross Domestic Product
2014: IV and 2014 annual 2015: I 2015: II 2015: III
Advance.... January 30 April 29 July 30 October 29
Second..... February 27 May 29 August 27 November 24
Third...... March 27 June 24 September 25 December 22
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... .. May 29 August 27 November 24
Revised....... March 27 June 24 September 25 December 22
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near
the end of the first month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive
data become available, the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and
third months, respectively. The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive
revisions, which are typically released in late July.
Annual revisions, cover at a minimum the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, and incorporate
newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at
about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts
and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of real and current-
dollar GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate
(one month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while
from the advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the
advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points.
Larger average revisions for the latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major
improvements, such as the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is
larger than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The
larger average revisions to the The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real
GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or decelerating about 75 percent
of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth about 83
percent of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest.................... -0.1 1.2 1.0
____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .2 .6 .4
Second to third...................... .1 .3 .2
Advance to latest.................... .1 1.3 1.0
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NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2013.