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Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2015 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2016. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending. Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third. _____ FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA's Web site. ______ The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent. Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 1.5 percent, or $68.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,128.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $137.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.8 billion in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a downturn in personal interest income and decelerations in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income. Personal current taxes increased $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $22.3 billion in the third. Disposable personal income increased $111.3 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $168.5 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent. Personal outlays increased $72.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $131.7 billion in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $739.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $700.6 billion in the third. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp. 2015 GDP Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014. The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2014. Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $589.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,937.8 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014. During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent during 2014. ______ BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components." ______ BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- February 26, 2016 at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Second Estimate) * * * Release dates in 2016 Gross Domestic Product 2015: IV and 2015 annual 2016: I 2016: II 2016: III Advance.... January 29 April 28 July 29 October 28 Second..... February 26 May 27 August 26 November 29 Third...... March 25 June 28 September 29 December 22 Corporate Profits Preliminary... ... May 27 August 26 November 29 Revised....... March 25 June 28 September 29 December 22 Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Current quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. "Latest" quarterly estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions, which are typically released in late July. Annual revisions generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and the associated quarters) and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below presents the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real and current-dollar GDP for the different estimate vintages. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (1 month later), the average revision to real GDP growth without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the third estimate (2 months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points. Larger average revisions for the latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements to the accounts, such as the incorporation of BEA's latest benchmark input-output accounts. The current quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change in real GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or decelerating about 75 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth about 83 percent of the time. Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of compared regard to sign revisions without regard to sign ________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________ Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4 Advance to third..................... 0.1 0.6 0.5 Second to third...................... 0.0 0.2 0.3 Advance to latest.................... -0.1 1.2 1.0 ____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________ Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4 Advance to third..................... 0.2 0.7 0.5 Second to third...................... 0.1 0.3 0.3 Advance to latest.................... 0.1 1.3 1.0 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2014.