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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2018

BEA 18-65

Personal Income and Outlays, October 2018

Personal income increased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion (0.6 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

	2018
	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.5
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.5
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.3
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.6
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.4
Price indexes:
PCE	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.1

Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.0	2.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	2.0	2.0	1.9	1.9	1.8

The increase in personal income in October primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, proprietors' income, and government social benefits to persons (table 3). Farm proprietors' income increased $11.6 billion in October, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture's Market Facilitation Program.

The $56.5 billion increase in real PCE in October reflected an increase of $14.3 billion in spending for goods and a $41.4 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, spending for prescription drugs was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $90.8 billion in October (table 3). Personal saving was $967.8 billion in October and the personal saving rate , personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.2 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for April through September. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and

PCE -- revised and previously published in last month's release -- are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	August				September
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	67.0	68.0	0.4	0.4	35.7	40.2	0.2	0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	55.4	54.6	0.4	0.4	29.1	32.2	0.2	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	35.8	37.6	0.2	0.3	9.5	11.8	0.1	0.1
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	64.9	52.5	0.5	0.4	53.0	31.5	0.4	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	46.1	36.8	0.4	0.3	33.2	12.9	0.3	0.1

QCEW Data Included in the Second Quarter of 2018

This news release includes revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for April through June 2018 (second quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of newly available second-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program.

Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates for 2019

December 2018	- January 31	April 2019	- May 31	August 2019	- September 27
January 2019	- March 1	May 2019	- June 28	September 2019	- October 31
February 2019	- March 29	June 2019	- July 30	October 2019	- November 27
March 2019	- April 29	July 2019	- August 30	November 2019	- December 20

Next release: December 21, 2018 at 10:00 A.M.

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Personal Income

James Rankin

(301) 278-9087

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Services

Harvey Davis

(301) 278-9719

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

Resources

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Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
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For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago